It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 11:25 am
if they really want, they can transform Brazil and Thailand into civilizational knowledge lifeboat within a year. Everything is digitalized, education records and employment history.
Really easy to identified talented people: heavy diesel mechanics, engineers, mathematicians, industrial mechanics.
I want to know what Québec, Canada and US has to offer to talented people that Thailand and Brazil cannot offer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_MikD80ly0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tuCeoTmc_0
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 11:36 am
Give me one fucking good reason for not killing all the population of earth. give me one good reason as for not killing heavily retarded mentally people.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 11:41 am
give me one good reason as to why I should keep the population of earth alive.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 11:47 am
Some of you stupid mentally retarded feminized soy boy are starting to get nervous. Look at the face of this fucking cock sucker starting at 0:00. Look at his fucking facial expressions, I can smell his the panic and fear through my computer screen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ww5wa0txqvE
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 11:58 am
Look at the face of Deidre Bosa that is the female copy of Obama. Especially around the mouth. Can you see the look of panic and fear in her facial expression.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUXrNeed9j8
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 12:01 pm
Play the video at 0.5 speed without sound. It is easier to see her facial expression of panic and fears.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUXrNeed9j8
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 12:08 pm
« Dressew » doit fermer boutique
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_5VeFfd04Q
I make my own clothing and I own 3 sewing machines. I am too big and cannot buy clothing that fit my well. So I have to make my own clothing. You can see the contraction in real time of the supply chain just be comparing the type of fabric available now compare to 5 year ago. All the high tech sport fabric are gone.
Only the people that will leave earth or will get divine protection while on earth will live.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 12:10 pm
I told you, the international supply chain is collapsing.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU3133131331
« Dressew » doit fermer boutique
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_5VeFfd04Q
I make my own clothing and I own 3 sewing machines. I am too big and cannot buy clothing that fit my well. So I have to make my own clothing. You can see the contraction in real time of the supply chain just be comparing the type of fabric available now compare to 5 year ago. All the high tech sport fabric are gone.
Only the people that will leave earth or will get divine protection while on earth will live.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 12:13 pm
We are going to fuck over the population of earth real good. I will kill all of you because of Canada firearms laws.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 12:16 pm
I told you, the international supply chain is collapsing.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU3133131331
Notice how these fucking lying pieces of shit are trying to hide inflation by reindexing the graph and make 2003 equal to 100. This is to hide real inflations. It is a way to erase the past when you reindex to graph to a more recend date.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 12:20 pm
I told you that lowering the rate will cause hyperinflation. We will use hyperinflation to kill Harris during her presidency. We are gong to make an example of the bitch, her jews husband and her kids.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 12:23 pm
We are telling that we will cut the rate. We are telling you the futur.
Johnson: We’re cutting rates despite not hitting inflation targets, while spending $3 billion daily
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSWf4e1_bPs
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 12:28 pm
The latest CPI report confirms a 25 basis point rate cut next week, says Pimco’s Tiffany Wilding
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LH7odfjAOvc
Look we are slowing setting up the narrative to justify ad increase in rate. There is always a lag. We are doing it now, so we will be in full hyperinflation around June of next year during Harris presidency. The population will demand a solution and the FED will have to jack up the rate to double digits. This is where the enraged crowd comes in and kill Harris, her Jewish husband and kids. I do good theater.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 12:43 pm
For lumber their graphic starts at year 1930
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU081
but for textile fabric the graphic is starting at year 2003.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU3133131331
Fucking maniupulative lying pieces of shit.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 12:53 pm
I could talk in detail about textile fabric. Just be comparing textile fabric now, to 10 or 6 year ago, you can see the international supply chain collapsing.
Same as comparing car engine from the 1990 to today car engine, you can see the international supply chain collapsing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFrN9sBKlVA
I could not believe that crap. Instead of using steel inner cylinder sleeve, they use some kind of cheap plasma method.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 1:01 pm
I love this comment about the quality of Ford products. I told you that men like me have been
destroying Western civilization from the inside for the last 20 years. As the Russians used to say, the pretend to pay us, we pretend to work.
sadly, it is still a ford.
their quality has been in the toilet for decades now, so the only real metric for them these days is the zero to junkyard speed.
still, very kind of you to say nice things.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFrN9sBKlVA
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 1:45 pm
I love this comment about the quality of Ford products. I told you that men like me have been
destroying Western civilization from the inside for the last 20 years. As the Russians used to say, the pretend to pay us, we pretend to work.
sadly, it is still a ford.
their quality has been in the toilet for decades now, so the only real metric for them these days is the zero to junkyard speed.
still, very kind of you to say nice things.
I told you that men like have been sabotaging the West from the inside. People have just no idea how close we are to all die.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/XmSykQdr1F0
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 1:50 pm
There is a reason why I am saying, only the people that will leave earth will live or the people that will receive divine protection while on earth.
I have an idea of the damage men like me did to this civilisation by sabotaging it from the inside. People have just no idea.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/XmSykQdr1F0
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 1:59 pm
People that don’t fix their car, people that don’t fix their sewing machine, people that don’t fix their house have no idea how bad it is and how successful we were at sabotaging the West from the inside. People have just no idea.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/XmSykQdr1F0
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 2:05 pm
I told you that we have been sabotaging your civilization from the inside. People have no idea.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Y4mstCs4GTQ
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 2:14 pm
You just have no idea what we did to your civilization.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/FkKU6opnVO8
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 2:20 pm
Why do you think I am talking about building Brazil and Thailand as civilizational knowledge lifeboat. Because I know the damage we did from the inside to the West and the rest of the world. I know it is over and everyone will die on earth.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 2:26 pm
You just have no idea. What we did to your civilization.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lw4DO48mOJE
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 2:30 pm
You just have no idea. What we did to your civilization.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lw4DO48mOJE
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/honda,2017,hr-v,1.8l+l4,3435187,transmission-automatic,torque+converter,8668
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 2:35 pm
As you can see by looking at the videos links that I am putting in my comments, I have friends work inside earth with me.
We can crash the financial system a any time we wants. You have no idea about anything because you are mentally retarded.
dd on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 2:42 pm
You have no idea. you are simply too mentally retarded to be keep alive
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/honda,2022,accord,1.5l+l4+turbocharged,3450697,transmission-automatic
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 2:43 pm
You have no idea. you are simply too mentally retarded to be keep alive
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/honda,2022,accord,1.5l+l4+turbocharged,3450697,transmission-automatic,fluid+pan,8546
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 2:50 pm
You have no idea what we did to your civilization and what kind of sabotage with did to it. You are not intelligent enough to understand how critical the situation is.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/x-oKPUopAWM
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 3:29 pm
I know earth cannot be fixed. Why do you think I am talking about building Brazil and Thailand as civilizational knowledge lifeboat.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 3:38 pm
You see at 0:10. What you see there are the losers that will not be a part of the civilization knowledge lifeboat. These a dead weight. If you wearing a suit you are loser and we don’t need you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RWe1AgqAz0
The guy in the video below is considered a talented person and would be invited to join civilization knowledge lifeboat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lw4DO48mOJE
All the can by easily done by looking at digitalized employment history and educational record.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 4:02 pm
The guy in the video below is considered a talented person and would be invited to join civilization knowledge lifeboat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk559_8nZIU
Bridgeport Drywall Contractors on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 4:19 pm
The information provided is highly valuable and worthy of our attention.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 4:25 pm
I will explain to you who are the talented people and who are the losers. Below you have a loser with a suit at 11:08. Listen to him talking about his job description and how useless he really is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rE8C5jFP_oE
Below you have a talented man that can fix a car and on top of that he can do the job that loser in a suit above is doing. I have 2 for the price of one with a car mechanics. I will go with the car mechanic any day, I can train them to become administrators, if I have too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lw4DO48mOJE
This is how you build a civilizational knowledge lifeboat. It is not hat complicated.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 4:47 pm
I will explain to you who are the talented people and who are the losers. Below you have a loser with a suit at 11:08. Listen to him talking about his job description and how useless he really is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rE8C5jFP_oE
Below you have a talented man that can fix a car and on top of that he can do the job that loser in a suit above is doing. I have 2 for the price of one with a car mechanics. I will go with the car mechanic any day, I can train them to become administrators, if I have too. If the shit really hit the fan, I can send this guy fixing a house, installing a new window, doing plumbing. People in suit are just fucking useless parasite. It is better if the die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk559_8nZIU
This is how you build a civilizational knowledge lifeboat. It is not hat complicated.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 5:15 pm
Look at how full of shit they are. Un graphic start at 2004 and another one start at 1950.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU3133131331
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU03
In the last graph, you can see your hyperinflation. I explain this before above
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 5:18 pm
The fucking food is uneatable on this fucking planet. I don’t what happen. Is it old age.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 5:22 pm
They did the same thing with automotive parts. I guess they are trying to hide the shortage of automotive replacement parts by erasing the past. Notice the graph start at 2002. They are so full of shit, these lying pieces of shit.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU44134413
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,expedition,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3444715,engine,cylinder+head+gasket,5412
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 6:05 pm
This guy is funny. I told you they are doing it on purpose to push people in smart cities. They don’t want you to own a car.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktdgRxBoKMM
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 6:29 pm
Who run nations, EPA, FDA, UDA. who force the car manufacturers tu use CVT, the EPA. EPA
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 8:20 pm
It is not the immigrants that have destroyed the West. It is men like me that have been destroying the West from the inside, the same way that Russians destroyed Russia from the inside. It is the Whites men like me that have destroyed your Whites nations. You really don’t understand what is going on because you are just stupid mentally retarded pieces of shits.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 8:37 pm
Nobody will ever tell me what kind of firearms I can buy and cannot buy, certainly not the government of Canada. Nobody will ever tell me if I am authorized to carry or not an handgun on me, certainly not the government of Canada. It is Whites men like me that have destroyed your Whites nations.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 8:51 pm
You just cannot understand how bad we destroyed your precious Whites nations. You dont have the IQ to understand.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 8:59 pm
You just cannot understand how bad we destroyed your precious Whites nations. You dont have the IQ to understand. Why do you think out of nowhere I am now talking about a civilizational knowledge lifeboat. Because I know what we did to your precious White civilization. I know it cannot be fixed. The emergency plan is a civilizational knowledge lifeboat.
dd on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 9:22 pm
We destroyed your precious White civilisation from the inside. You are running out of natural resources, your smart cities project is far from being ready as most people are not willing to participe to it. You lack the high IQ people needed to run such a highly complex civilizations. Whites men have abandoned you and just want to leave the West for another nations. You are so fucked it is funny.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 9:34 pm
RECORD-BREAKING SNOW FOR THE ALPS; ZULULANDERS SEE SURPRISE SPRING FLAKES; MOUNT WASHINGTON REGISTERS EARLY FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW; + HURRICANE DUD
https://electroverse.info/
The population of planet earth will be executed as it was planned long ago. This was planned way before I was born.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 10:45 pm
Thailand never disappoint. the first minute. Who run the show overthere??
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-sFZanzIvc
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 11:09 pm
Thailand the perfect location for a civilizational knowledge lifeboat location. You cannot do better then this to entertain talented men while GOD destroy and rebuild the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-sFZanzIvc
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 11:15 pm
I just have hatred for the West, especially for the US and Canada.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 11:21 pm
There is no way, I will ever contribute anything toward helping the US or Canada. Especially not after Canada has taken away from me rights to carry an handgun on me. Eventually, I will have to leave Canada.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 11:39 pm
Trump as a facial of expression of a man that does not care if he wins or loses. You can see through his facial expression that he has no respect for her. This is why he was not interested into shaking her hands. The media got this one all wrong as always.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjPt8njOJ0M