It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 10:02 pm
Now you understand why a lot globalism institutions have their headquater located in Europe.
International tribunal located in France:
https://icj-cij.org/fr/accueil
BIS or Banque of international settlement located in Swiss
https://www.bis.org/about/contact.htm?m=37
United nations headquarter located in Europe
https://unric.org/
The US has been under the control of Europe and UK for a long time.
BIS, UN, and many other are all located in Europe. Globalism is a matter of life and death for Europe.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 10:07 pm
There is a reason why Europe is flooding it self with immigrants. it is done voluntary so they can keep their ranking inside the international supply chain.
dd on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 10:20 pm
I consider Europe as an enemy of North America.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 10:29 pm
from my point of view UK, Europe and Israel are enemies of North America. I consider UN as a spy agency operating inside the border of North America without any check and balance. UN headquarter will need be close and the traitors inside executed.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 10:37 pm
I am not really a willing participant in this. I am helping some beings that cannot be present in a flesh body on earth. I am just a conduit but, I don’t have a lot of power how I can managed earth affairs.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 10:44 pm
I will take UK, Europe and Israel and throw these nations against the wall over and over until they are completely destroyed.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 10:53 pm
I made a mistake in one of the comment above.
I am not really a willing participant in this. I am helping some beings that cannot be present in a flesh body on earth. I am just a conduit but, I DO have a lot of power about earth affairs.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 1:31 am
Nice outfit whore.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsH089VAsGI
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 1:40 am
Nice dominatrix outfit whore.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=in2RCJ7F5WA
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 1:48 am
Nice outfit whore. How many fingers can I put you ass before you scream in pain. I would say at least 4 easily.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_y7SkLEAlCs
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 3:07 am
I can fuck you if you want whore. Just beg for my small dick.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFAPZw3a12s
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 3:15 am
This is the same girl. If you don’t want to fuck this bitch and use her as your personal fuck toy, you have no testosterones. You are a piece of shit European beta cock boy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0f9CdiuNVg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFAPZw3a12s
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 3:22 am
Pieces of shit European garbage feminized men. Completely fucking useless.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 3:42 am
The White European man is too feminized to be used as a male procreator. He is too fucking pathetic. It is easier to kill all the population of earth and restart populating the earth a few well selected high IQ masculine men and special female procreator.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 3:50 am
I told you, the Europeans are voluntary importing immigrants into Europe to keep their ranking among the international supply chain. they are even not hiding it anymore.
Donner ou pas la nationalité aux enfants qui ont grandi et étudié en Italie? Le parti Forza Italia est pour mais les autres partis d’extrême droite au sein de la coalition au pouvoir sont contre.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlFrfUYCg3o
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 8:44 am
Look at this feminized piece of shit man. We need to kill these kind of beta cock man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQkj9_EEjpo
He is not masculine enough to use a bitch like her as his personal sex toy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0f9CdiuNVg
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 8:56 am
Funny as fuck. Bitch at CNN is now wearing leather clothing. You are good fuck toy, whore. you know what you are whore, a fucking useless fuck toy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8W–NtUV24
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 9:01 am
It is time to kill the whole population of earth. And repopulate the earth using high IQ masculine men and specialized design improved female procreator. It is time to kill men like Blinken.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MALzQzOErE
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 9:10 am
The actual earth female is too stupid to be kept alive. We need to kill all of them and come up with a new specialized design improved female procreator.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 9:12 am
Pretty obvious at this point that earth is a simulation and earth belong to me to be used as I see fit.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 9:13 am
Pretty obvious at this point that earth is a simulation and earth belong to me to be used as I see fit. Let’s start by killing the gay men and feminized beta cuck men.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 9:21 am
It is also time to genetic horror such MadCow.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3rDpZS-khI
It is time to kill the whole population of earth by kill all the green vegetation of earth.
eedd on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 9:26 am
This is what I mean by pieces of shit feminized beta cuck European men. Completely fucking useless as male procreators.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWf_atWU9-g
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 9:39 am
Eventually someone will figure out how to build a army of masculine men killers. You give them a endless supply of young and pretty sex toy to abuse sexually and all the firearms they need.
This is a fuck toy build to be abused sexually
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0f9CdiuNVg
This is only type among many type of firearms
https://www.remarms.com/other-products/tac-14-marine-magnum
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 9:55 am
Why do you think the have created feminism and are trying to replace the name Vagina with front hole. Why do you think they try to build an asexual society. Why do you think they created these restrictive firearms laws. I thought that this was obvious and everyone knew about it. See my comment above.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 10:13 am
Eventually someone will figure out how to build a army of masculine men killers. You give them a endless supply of young and pretty sex toy to abuse sexually and all the firearms they need. Endless supply of young pretty women with who you can have sex right away on demand and then you continue on to your usually business, no longer term committement. Isn’t supposed to be common knowledge.
This is a fuck toy build to be abused sexually
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0f9CdiuNVg
This is only type among many type of firearms
https://www.remarms.com/other-products/tac-14-marine-magnum
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 10:54 am
If you do what I asked above, men like me will kill the Jews living in North America for you. It has to be really young fertile women that loving worshipping men penis.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 11:03 am
If you do what I asked above, men like me will kill the Jews living in North America for you. It has to be really young fertile women that loving worshipping men penis. As soon as as you disable the police force and army, and do what I mentioned above, men like me will take over and purge North America. We will kill Jews, judges, politicians, academic and so on.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 11:10 am
If you do what I asked above, men like me will kill the Jews living in North America for you. It has to be really young fertile women that loving worshipping men penis. As soon as as you disable the police force and army, and do what I mentioned above, men like me will take over and purge North America. We will kill Jews, judges, politicians, academic and so on.
Understand that if you go down that road, you might also become a target. For example, I will try to get Legault and Trudeau heads as war trophies.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 11:11 am
People working the media will also become target. Make sure you understand what you do if you decide to go down that road.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 11:15 am
You could also create a special firearms license only available to ancestral Whites men like me.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 11:17 am
The Jews living in North America will not be illegible to such a firearms license mentioned above. The Jews living in North America has to die.
I appoint elite supertard president ee double plus plus supertard his title is 'the lover' of supremacist muzzies on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 11:17 am
ALL OG elite supertard presidents of PO forum who MUZZ-19 themselves with reckless abandonment
PROMPTLY DEPARTED for SAINT PETERS
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 11:19 am
You don’t have the balls to do what I mentioned above. I know you are just fucking coward.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 11:24 am
I think the total destruction of Europe, UK and Israel would beneficial to the whole world in the long term.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 11:45 am
Personally I don’t care about South Korean and Japan. I would eventually stop all trade relations with both.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 11:52 am
I don’t believe in the efficiency of a maritime container cargo supply chain. I believe in only a land supply chain. Big supply chain, you are begging for more troubles.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 12:02 pm
This is just a simulation. Nobody is really dying. For GOD sake, people have long fragile necks and fake CGI eyes. This is just a simulation to test my leadership skills.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 12:25 pm
If it was not for the police forces and justice system. I would have killed a lot of long necks a long time ago. I would have rape a lot of young 12 year bitch to see what kind of orgasm I would get and so on.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 1:32 pm
If it was not for the police forces and justice system. I would have killed a lot of long necks a long time ago. I would have rape a lot of young 12 year bitch to see what kind of orgasm I would get and so on. I would be raping women left and right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTXlkq3g8xQ
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 1:48 pm
I will fuck your fake whores. Just sent them to me directly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnPgjOXWO84
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 2:26 pm
Send your fucking whores to my house, I will fuck them. What kind of sexual domination you want. Anal stretching, vaginal stretching, You like face slapping, stupid whore. I can make you feel less worthy than dog shit left on the sidewalk for a week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbJxx1oZcos
eedd on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 3:00 pm
I have shit lot of these sexually suggestives videos.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/CreA2xOyXuU
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 3:04 pm
0:50 she is doing it on purpose so you get an erection.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCj14-ZvRNc
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 3:06 pm
7:38 speaks for itself. I don’t understand why YouTube is not banning this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Kb6fQxCUwo
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 3:19 pm
I still believe that the whole planet earth will benefit greatly from the total destruction of Europe, UK, Israel. The death of all the Jews of the world is needed if we want to get out of this loop of conformity.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 5:08 pm
Thailand understand the best what is currenlty happening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tuCeoTmc_0
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 5:14 pm
Thailand not afraid to be original and anti-conformist. Unlike the fucking west.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tuCeoTmc_0
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 5:23 pm
Thailand the perfect location to create a civilizational knowledge lifeboat and park the most talented men of the planet while GOD destroy the rest of the planet and rebuild something new for the survivors.
ee on Tue, 10th Sep 2024 5:28 pm
Fuck I hate the West. the West is all about conformity and obedience. The West has no personality at all. That is what happen when you let the Jews control your nations.
Just how look at how many Whites are roaming the streets of Pattaya.