It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 6:53 pm
You know as much as I know that the West is an ugly place. Some of us are just waiting for some warm nations to give us a fast citizenship , then we are gone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cc8T9jKt7ZM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOaBU1HD_ZE
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 7:03 pm
8:54 there is dead trees all over the world. This one is from Europe. Look at the tops of the palms trees. They are installing a new energy field through the whole world. Nobody will be spared. Everyone and all earth vegetation will be killed eventually. Just fucking amazing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePcatHTcjqo
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 7:11 pm
It really looks like they will kill everyone on planet earth. Maybe I am the one killing the whole population of earth because of Canada firearms laws. I told you that I would kill everyone because of Canadians firearms laws if I was given the power to do so. Do I have been given the power to do but I have not been told yet?
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 7:26 pm
I wrote multiple comments on this website that if I was given the power to kill everyone on earth I would do it just as a mean of retaliation against Canada firearms laws. I have been very clear about this.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 7:53 pm
I told you many times that I had to put a red line somewhere and Canada firearms laws was a red line that you crossed. I am therefore killing all the earth population as I promised I would do, if I was given to power to do so.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 10:45 pm
So fucking obvious that it is fake theater to attract tourists. Tourisme is the main industry in Monaco. I would put a trade embargo on Monaco and let these cock suckers die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvoTqpvlbLg
Some of these women are too pretty to be real human. We are invaded by the dead projecting a fake image of a human body.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 10:59 pm
People don’t understand that killing all earth vegetation will completely destroy nations like Monaco. People don’t understand how vicious this move is. Earth without vegetation will turn into a baren waste land.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P661HSML2i0
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 11:08 pm
I don’t like to use my phone to take picture and record movies. I bought a cheap mini camera from aliexpress. If it does good videos, I will start to record videos of dying trees I see around me.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 11:32 pm
8:11 look at trees dying right in front of the hotel. Just wait another month.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P661HSML2i0
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 11:33 pm
All of this because of Canada firearms laws. could you imagine that.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 12:26 am
Dubai look a fake CGI city where everything is fake. I would need to see it with my own eyes to believe that Dubai really exist. I would need to go there and check it out on my own. I have trouble to believe the Dubai is a real place with real people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XIPemCcpEQ
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 12:48 am
I would need to see Dubai with my own eyes. The video does not provide enough info.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XIPemCcpEQ
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 1:08 am
Dead palm trees at 0:27. Brown leaves meaning death of green vegetation. I told you that I will kill everyone living on planet earth because of Canadian firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvBgwggVv_g
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 1:13 am
On the right side of the screen yellow dying vegetation at 1:59. On the left, palm tree with a brown leave.
. I told you that I will kill everyone living on planet earth because of Canadian firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvBgwggVv_g
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 1:16 am
46:35 dying palm trees.
I told you that I will kill everyone living on planet earth because of Canadian firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvBgwggVv_g
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 1:21 am
I told you many time that I would kill all the population of earth because of the Canadians firearms laws. I told you that this was a red line for me that should have never been crossed but you dared to insult me.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 1:24 am
I did not ask for this. These powers were given to me. I plan on using my powers to kill the whole population of earth because of Canada firearms laws. This is the last time I will be insulted this way.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 1:31 am
This is the last time I was denied the permission to carry handguns on me. This is the last time Canada fucked me over like that. Prepare to die.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 2:21 am
So fucking obvious that Dubai is a fake CGI city with fake people in it. It is right there in your fucking face. They are even not hiding it that Dubai is all fake CGI including the people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z01mk98Bgg4
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 2:28 am
Dubai is full of dying trees tops. Same as Florida, Monaco, Pattaya, and California.
I told you that Canada firearms laws where a red line not to cross.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 2:30 am
Philippine at top of screen dying trees at 14:19
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sw-Sm4vFzSI
I told you that I would kill everyone living on planet earth because of Canada firearms laws.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 2:35 am
Philippine at 22:15 for dying trees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iELDwf7Jxe8
I told you that I would kill everyone living on planet earth because of Canada firearms laws.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 11:52 am
I like how women are comfortable showing their butt cracks. My theory is that women preferred to be sodomized otherwise they would not show their butt crack like that. Women love their butt crack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NojlyuwArpM
Earth is just a fucking shit hole for depraved sexual beings. Have you look at porn lately.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 11:56 am
1:13 Women seem even confortable showing us the asshole. Men are not showing their butt cracks like women do. Women are just fucking sex toy and they known it deep inside.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NojlyuwArpM
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 12:09 pm
I stand by my belief that sexual reproduction is a failure and women are also a failure. I still believe that a reality of made of only men with a long life and an high IQ is the way to go.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 12:24 pm
If I was forced to assume some kind of Monarch position with absolute power, most likely I would kill all the staff working in New York UN headquarters and not feel guilty about it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzs87drk6wk
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 12:33 pm
People have no idea how much I consider women and sexual reproduction as a totals failures that should never be replicated ever again.
I preferred asexual beings with high IQ and eternal life.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 12:36 pm
I cannot believe how stupid this cock sucker really is. Who put this fucking loser in charge?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzs87drk6wk
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 1:26 pm
I hate these fucking intellectuals. They never go into details. They always talk using vague and general buzz words. It means nothing is you don’t go into small details. They must be earning a good salary and good pension at the UN but they are basically worthless and don’t deserve a pension. I will kill these pieces of shit if I am forced into a position of total power.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzs87drk6wk
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 1:34 pm
I remember this fucking whore. I always thought that she was too pretty to be real. Eventually she die young, as they always do when they don’t have a real flesh body. The fucking deads. They come and go because they don’t have a real body.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e19-uE-cexA
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 1:37 pm
They only way to kill the dead is to install a new energy field. This mean that the real human with a real flesh body will need a update to be able to work with the new energy field. This might take a while to update the people with a real flesh body.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 1:41 pm
I remember this fucking whore. I always thought that she was too pretty to be real. Eventually she die young, as they always do when they don’t have a real flesh body. The fucking deads. They come and go because they don’t have a real body.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e19-uE-cexA
Her funeral show. This is what I mean they always die young and move to another role.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDjkEEShgNE
Remember Neilly Arcand, same pattern
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3tr6ruj580
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xVWDb9w75U
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 1:51 pm
The made a big show about her dead. Even when I was young, I could not figure out what she contributed to society to make it better. Fucking parasites. This fucking earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YF409PtSqQ
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 2:09 pm
The made a big deal about the death of this fucking whore. I still cannot figure what she did contribute to society in general.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nBsfB-vDhE
Some people in the comment section understand that this is just theater and we are stupid with the dead that are invading earth.
@aimonsnouslesunslesautres
il y a 7 jours
j aime entendre la facon dont l histoire est raconté par Gaston c est clair net et précis avec plein de détail c’est comme si c’était nous qui étions aux commandes
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 2:33 pm
I want to kill some long necks for the last four years. The police force and the justice system is really what is stopping me and the restrictive access to hand guns. Otherwise I would have killed some them and run an autopsy on their body. I would have tortured some of them to see how good they are at imitating pain.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 2:42 pm
There is a lot of things that don’t make sense. For example horses legs. They are way to small to support such an heavy animal. You would expect really big legs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1pYfyifN8s
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 2:47 pm
There is a lot of things that don’t make sense. For example horses legs. They are way to small to support such an heavy animal. You would expect really big legs. You would also expect big heavy muscle surround the bones of the legs. Where are the fucking muscle on the horses legs. We horse legs seem to be made of only bones.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1pYfyifN8s
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 2:58 pm
Look at the neck of horses. Show me which muscles are used to pull the head upward. Do an autopsy on a horse head and neck and show me using the First and 2e laws of Newton which muscles are pulling the head of the horse up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1pYfyifN8s
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 3:05 pm
Do an autopsy of a human with a long neck, and show me where the axis of rotation of the head is. I am talking about the axis of rotation that allow the head to move up or down. Show me that. Show to me in this picture the axis of rotation.
https://www.britannica.com/science/neck-anatomy
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 3:12 pm
This is what you are suppose to see, bigger animal beating the shit out of smaller animal. Not the fucking opposite like they show you almost all the time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JbyTOTIQa8
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 3:23 pm
Where are the muscles on this gazelle legs. I only see bones. Show me the fucking muscles and using the 1 and 2 laws of Newton show me how the legs moves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5aSFRTNSe74
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 3:37 pm
Personal my orgasm and ejaculation seem more like an electrical shock that an pleasure experience.
I will give you the website if you need inspiration to get it going.
xhamster.com
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 3:48 pm
You want to know what is keeping communists away, firearms. Communists are afraid of firearms because they are not intelligent enough to manipulate them without shooting themselves in the foot. Your remedy against communists is no firearms laws at all.
bb on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 5:30 pm
wow ee, you are seriously fucked up in the head aren’t you. You know that under the new terror laws they can lock you up, just over what you have said here.
They will find you, and soon there will be no ee on this website. It will be the end of the era, for you, and all that will be left to show for your life on Earth will be archived comments on an obscure server. I sort of like that idea? It’s, poetic 🙂
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 6:06 pm
I like how women love their body, including their butt crack. Women even worship the most disgusting part of their body, the butt crack where the shit goes out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VpQDY1Bns8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NojlyuwArpM
Women are really disgusting things if you think about it long enought.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 6:19 pm
Women are in love with the butt crack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GCG2Wa-A9I
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NojlyuwArpM
Women are really disgusting things if you think about it long enough. Women should be seen as sex objects and primitive animals with no real value. They are failed creation.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 6:33 pm
The is issue is not that earth is flooded with immigrants. The real lessons to learn is that sexual reproduction is a failure as a way to build a more intelligent civilization and women are total failure also.
People are missing the big picture as always. Only the chosen ones will live. Sexual reproduction will be outlawed in the future.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 6:46 pm
Only men that deeply hate women, that love firearms, that have no kids or girlfriend, that love solitude and have natural abilities for advanced mathematic will be allowed to leave earth. No women will never leave earth.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 6:58 pm
Earth project will be terminated as soon as the chosen have left earth and the bubbles of protection for the ones staying on earth a little longer are completed.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 8:40 pm
It is amazing how ugly Canada and the US are compare to the rest of the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adDMEmbijxU