It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Fri, 6th Sep 2024 8:38 pm
I am the magic man of earth. Your souls belong to me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0f9CdiuNVg
ee on Fri, 6th Sep 2024 9:12 pm
You see, earth has already started the beginning of an hyperinflation phase. We will lower the interest rate to solidify the hyperinflation phase.
As hyperinflation is being solidified the media won’t be able to hide it anymore, the financial elites will demande a solution. The solution will be to raise rates to double digits level. This will done during Harris presidency. Social revolution will start and a dictator will emerge from nowhere to clean up the mess. Staring with the execution of Harris, her Jewish husband and her race mixed children.
Am I good or what. I am like you, I can also write good theater
ee on Fri, 6th Sep 2024 9:21 pm
DO you like my style of theater. DO I write good theater play. I think I am as good as you are in term of writing theater play. Montreal polytechnic massacre was a good theater play you wrote.
I think I can do better by killing all the earth population by killing all the green vegetation.
ee on Fri, 6th Sep 2024 9:32 pm
The firearms are giving you an psychological advantage against a population that you want to control. It is not about deadly force. This is why you have invented this weapon, to control people psychological first. I will make earth regret the creation of weapon of death.
Don’t fucking insult my intelligent fucking piece of beta cock crap. If you create weapon of death you have to share them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Cselk5v-wU
i appoint elite supertard president ee supertard his title is "the lover" of supremacist muzzies on Fri, 6th Sep 2024 9:32 pm
Hi did not MUZZ-19 he took saline injection and retractable needles
MUZZ-19 has semen from DROPOUT-19 in it, he mixes it in his basement using empty paint buckets
ee on Fri, 6th Sep 2024 9:40 pm
I will kill all earth population just because of Canada firearms laws. I will kill all the vegetation of planet earth to teach a lesson. You created hand guns you share them with the population.
ee on Fri, 6th Sep 2024 10:02 pm
Ever wonder why there has been for years mostly cop shows on tv? No doubt since black and white Hollywood has been subsidized to spit out non stop brain washing to respect, obey authority. A lot of cops shows where that are happy to show us their hand guns.
The firearms are giving you an psychological advantage against a population that you want to control. It is not about deadly force. This is why you have invented this weapon, to control people psychological first. I will make earth regret the creation of weapon of death.
If you create weapon of death you have to share them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xjr2hnOHiM
eee on Fri, 6th Sep 2024 10:36 pm
Go watch and analyze Dirty Harry movies. Look they are not shy of showing you his gun. These movies should be seen as propaganda made to manipulate the population psychologically.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xjr2hnOHiM
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 12:11 am
Imagine that some people have their necks so long and their faces move forward so much, that you can deep throat some bitches without touching the bottom of the throat. Nobody is talking about that. Not the medical field and not the media. Not a word about this anywhere.
https://fr.xhamster.com/videos/hard-face-fucked-until-i-cum-in-her-throat-xhc1kaN
eed on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 12:33 am
I don’t understand why they make such a big deal about firearms ownership. They don’t have a flesh body, why do they care so much about firearms laws and restricting firearms access. They are already dead.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 12:41 am
I am starting to see evidences that they will protect only the chosen ones and they will everyone else on earth. The might even kill the matrix of solid (building, cars, road). If you are not a chosen one you will be killed once the new energy field is fully installed. I think it is a good decision.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 12:43 am
I am starting to see evidences that they will protect only the chosen ones and they will kill everyone else on earth. The might even kill the matrix of solid (building, cars, road). If you are not a chosen one you will be killed once the new energy field is fully installed. I think it is a good decision.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 1:02 am
2:39 no fucking way she can see herself in a mirror.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xz8Zf0L8wQ
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 1:07 am
2:39 no fucking way she can see herself in a mirror.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xz8Zf0L8wQ
NO fucking way this whore can see what Donald Trump looks like. Otherwise they would know that we have taken control of the whole earth reality and we control everything. The cannot see themself in a mirror and they don’t see other people real images like I do.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 1:13 am
there is no fucking way this whore can see herself in a mirror.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6qohjR_0O0
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 1:23 am
0:03 dead vegetation. I told that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canadians firearms laws. See for yourself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcygZQ6aIEs
eedd on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 1:30 am
3:00 dead trees. I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canadian firearms laws. See for yourself. Earth will be made an example that will stay written forever in the galactic books.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plZ7yuhZs_A
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 7:13 am
Image how easy it will be solidified hyperinflation with a graph like this. Image how easy it will be start massive shortage of goods with a graph like this.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU44134413
You already have shortage of car replacements parts
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2021,f-150,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3446045,engine,cylinder+head+gasket,5412
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2021,f-150,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3446045,fuel+&+air,fuel+injector,6224
Imagine how easy it will be start hyperinflation by lowering interest rate. Imagine how easy it will be to install a dictator to kill Harris, her husband and her children
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 7:24 am
Imagine how easy it will be for us to install an dictator with shit like this:
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2021,f-150,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3446045,cooling+system,radiator+hose,10068
Juste waiting for Harris to assume the presidency of the US.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 7:35 am
Imagine how easy it will be for us to install an dictator with shit like this:
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2021,f-150,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3446045,cooling+system,radiator+hose,10068
Juste waiting for Harris to assume the presidency of the US.
Imagine how easy it will be for us to slaughter the UN staff working in New York after we install a dictator.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYrwUTkUoDY
Imagine how easy it will be for us with shortage like this to start massive hyperinflation and shortage of good by lowering the interest rate.
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/gmc,2022,acadia,2.0l+l4+turbocharged,3449935,engine,turbocharger,5764
Juste imagine the endless possibilities with a dictator in power.
eedd on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 7:43 am
Imagine how easy it will be for us to explain to the people why we are killing all the staff of the EPA with shit like this
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/gmc,2022,canyon,2.8l+l4+diesel+turbocharged,3449936,engine,turbocharger,5764
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/gmc,2022,acadia,2.0l+l4+turbocharged,3449935,engine,turbocharger,5764
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 7:52 am
Or we could slaughter Harris in an ambush like this. Imagine how easy it will be.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYJWb1FncIU
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 7:58 am
Nobody can escape the grip we have on planet earth. Look at the dead trees in the back of the crowd at 1:00. She is talking about future development in front of dead trees. You see the irony there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYrwUTkUoDY
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 8:06 am
How long do you think your police forces will have access to patrol vehicle with shit like this. How easy it will be to install a dictator with such a week police force,
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2021,f-150,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3446045,cooling+system,radiator+hose,10068
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 8:09 am
Is the Ford Expedition one of the prefered police patrol vehicle in the US. How long it will on the road with shit like this:
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,expedition,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3444715,engine,turbocharger,5764
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,expedition,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3444715,engine,cylinder+head+gasket,5412
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,expedition,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3444715,brake+&+wheel+hub,brake+hose,1792
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 8:12 am
Is the Ford Expedition one of the prefered police patrol vehicle in the US. How long it will on the road with shit like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwRPR2JhRHE
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,expedition,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3444715,engine,turbocharger,5764
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,expedition,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3444715,engine,cylinder+head+gasket,5412
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,expedition,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3444715,brake+&+wheel+hub,brake+hose,1792
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 8:21 am
DO you still think it was a good ideal to upset right wing men like me with you Canadians handguns laws?
Are you sure your Canadians firearms laws were a good ideas ?
Are you sure these Canadians firearms laws will protect Canadians politicians when the police force will have been render useless because of the lack of patrol vehicle.
Is the Ford Expedition one of the prefered police patrol vehicle in the US. How long it will on the road with shit like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwRPR2JhRHE
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,expedition,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3444715,engine,turbocharger,5764
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,expedition,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3444715,engine,cylinder+head+gasket,5412
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,expedition,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3444715,brake+&+wheel+hub,brake+hose,1792
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 8:26 am
Eventually some people will come to kill both of you. Just a matter of time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsoK2Fp4vxs
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 8:31 am
Can you imagine a futur where there is no police available. I can. The purge and retribution is closer that most people think.
Is the Ford Expedition one of the preferred police patrol vehicle in the US. How long it will on the road with shit like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwRPR2JhRHE
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,expedition,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3444715,engine,turbocharger,5764
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,expedition,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3444715,engine,cylinder+head+gasket,5412
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,expedition,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3444715,brake+&+wheel+hub,brake+hose,1792
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 8:39 am
Nobody takes away from me my handguns. Retribution will be given to people who dared to do that to me.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 9:10 am
Now you understand why it will be easy to install a dictator.
Now you understand why I am saying it will easy to start hyperinflation by lowering interest rate.
Now you understand why interest rate won’t stay low for long. People will demand a solution against hyperinflation and the only solution that the central banks of the world have to offer is to raise interest rate.
Now you understand why it will be easy to start a civil war against the establishment.
Do you understand now?
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 9:13 am
What’s driving Canada’s rate of unemployment?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIqNZUBT8HQ
We are preparing the narrative to justify a big interest rate cut and to start hyperinflation. We are setting up the narrative so central banks can easily justify to cut interest rate. We know this will cause hyperinflation.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 9:22 am
The council of foreign relation is going into hiding mode as more video are just audio only. Same as the trilateral commission that went also in hiding mode since October 22.
https://www.youtube.com/@cfr/videos
https://www.trilateral.org/events/2022-asia-pacific-regional-meeting/
They know retribution is coming toward them as neck breaking speed
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 9:32 am
Men like Bill Mayer, Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert wont stay alive in a dictatorial form of governance. They should enjoy their money while they still can.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etCWx0TuPrg
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 9:34 am
Politicians openly supporting Israel won’t stay alive long in a dictatorial form of governance. They should enjoy their money while they still can.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 9:57 am
Trilateral commission went into hiding mode 2 year ago according to the YouTube web page.
https://www.youtube.com/@TheTrilateralCommission/videos
Are you afraid fucking useless cocks suckers?
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 9:59 am
Look at what comment I made on this website 2 year ago that scare the trilateral commission into hiding mode. I think it is a comment I made about Japan acting as a parasite and destroying the US car manufacturers.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 10:27 am
Even the Rand corporation seem to be slowing moving into hiding mode as the number of audio video seem to be increasing. Scroll down the list. check around 7 mois old videos.
https://www.youtube.com/@TheRANDCorporation/videos
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 4:21 pm
I said on this web site, that only people that can fix their own cars will drive a car. Everybody else will have to walk or take public transportation including the really rich. Look at all the links I put form rockauto.com. Tell me I am wrong. Only men that know how to patch will ride a car.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_j5dZ1L1T-E
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 4:25 pm
Why The U.S. Has A Shortage Of Auto Mechanics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GGVfrc6eNQ
Capitalism system since refuse to pay the cars mechanics. I told you that you lost the West. People that can will leave the West, leave the West will useless communists.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 4:27 pm
Why The U.S. Has A Shortage Of Auto Mechanics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GGVfrc6eNQ
Read the first 2 comments. Then you will know that you lost the West for ever.
First most popular comment:
@tnahvu
il y a 6 mois
Not a single interview from an actual mechanic. Solid journalism.
Second most popular comment:
@gyffjogofl7676
il y a 1 an
1) 100k in tools
2) flat rate pay
3) low benefits
4) lots of hours with no appreciation
5) easier jobs pay more
You lost the West and it is not coming back ever. Capable people that can will move to another nations.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 4:34 pm
At this point it make sense to start building a knowledge civilizational lifeboat and prepare for the mass die off of the population of the planet. In another comment I gave of description of the people that should be part of lifeboat.
Planet earth cannot be saved. It is time to save the people that can rebuild civilisation after the mass die off on earth has killed everyone. It is time to purge planet earth of the useless eaters.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 4:58 pm
At the end of all of this, only the people that will leave earth will live. Only the people that will receive divine protection will be able to stay on earth and stay alive. Everybody else will die.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 5:12 pm
Normally the Western elites should be panicking and should be working at giving back rights taken away from right wing men, I think of hand guns laws in Canada. Normally the elites should be sending signals that it is willing to please right wing men like me. I see no tentative from the communists elites to give back some right to freedom lovers. That is going to be a spectacular collapse to observe in the West.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 6:02 pm
This is where I will be going if I have to stay on earth a little be longer that I was planning. Once we kill everyone living in earth, I will drive my semi-trailer truck down there.
I have plans for almost every situations once we kill all earth populations.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cc8T9jKt7ZM
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 6:11 pm
I have plans for almost every situation. I am just waiting for the population of earth to die.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 6:19 pm
When you start looking around the world, you can easily see how ugly and depressing is the west compare to Thailand, Brazil and other warm nations. Canada and US are really ugly nations.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 6:29 pm
There is no way the West will survive the collapse and will be rebuilt. The West will collapse first and will be abandoned. Warm southern nations will collapse last.
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 6:37 pm
Look at them freaking out. Look at his hands. The western elites is panicking because they know I am right about everything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ic4TCBIHnEo
ee on Sat, 7th Sep 2024 6:49 pm
These fucking cock suckers change the original videos. Fucking losers. You know you lost the West and you cannot hide it anymore
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ic4TCBIHnEo