It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 8:49 pm
It is amazing how ugly and without souls Canada and the US are compare to the rest of the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QH4mHlhAJJQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cc8T9jKt7ZM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adDMEmbijxU
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 8:55 pm
Compare Miami
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8NVebWnrm8
with this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adDMEmbijxU
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 9:02 pm
I don’t know how Canada and US will keep their talented people from leaving if other nations were to offer fast citizenship. That what happen when you let the Jews take control of your nations.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 10:01 pm
In about a month from now, we will see how fast the trees are dying. this should give us a good idea how long before everyone dies on earth.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 10:11 pm
3:38 look at the row of dying trees. In a month from now we will have a better idea how fast the planet will die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJYxMmqiDT0
I told you that I would kill all the population of earth because of Canada firearms laws.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 10:23 pm
5:53 look at the row of dying trees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJYxMmqiDT0
Nobody takes away from me my handguns and live to brag about it . If you invent weapons of lethality such as handguns in a goal to dominate psychologically a population using the fear of death, you have to share these weapons with the populations. Earth will serve as an example regarding the rule allowed in the creation of weapon of lethality in the goal of dominating a population.
eed on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 10:26 pm
5:53 look at the row of dying trees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJYxMmqiDT0
Nobody takes away from me my handguns and live to brag about it . If you invent weapons of lethality such as handguns in a goal to dominate psychologically a population using the fear of death, you have to share these weapons with the populations. Earth will serve as an example regarding the rule allowed in the creation of weapon of lethality in the goal of dominating a population.
Canada firearms laws are violating the principle above and all the laws regarding the possession of firearms must be removed to be in concordance with the principle above.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 10:34 pm
Next time don’t invent weapon of lethality would be my suggestion. I would not be asking for Canada to remove all its firearms laws if you did not create weapons.
ee on Sun, 8th Sep 2024 11:06 pm
Just by looking at how dirty harry movie were made, it is pretty obvious that handguns were created to dominate a population using fear.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xjr2hnOHiM
I will kill all population of earth because of Canada firearms laws. Earth will serve as an example.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 1:25 am
12:13 a full row of dying trees. Go look a my past comments I made on this website about killing earth vegetation. It is exactly what I asked for.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJYxMmqiDT0
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 1:33 am
Pattaya on the right dying trees same as Florida. see 13:44
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90ExDnesZJk
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 10:07 am
Stupid piece of shits. Each time a politician open its mouth, only stupid BS words are coming out. I am going to destroy the World just because of Canada firearms laws. Watch us going. You have seen nothing yet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pG3j915erts
COLD RECORDS TUMBLE ACROSS THE EAST; COLDER-THAN-AVERAGE AUGUSTS; INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT WARNS OF HARSH WINTER TO COME; + DARK PLASMA HEADED FOR EARTH
https://electroverse.info/
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 10:15 am
8:07 look at Florida trees dying from above. You create weapon of lethality such handguns, it is your obligation to make them easily accessible to the population also. It is know as the principle of psychological domination equality. Canada firearms laws are in direct violant of the principle of psychology manipulation equality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4B5EbHis7g
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 10:18 am
8:00 even your green grass ground are full of yellow patches. I told you that I would kill all the population of earth because of Canada firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4B5EbHis7g
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 10:33 am
Just wait a little bit Florida. Wait a year and we will see if Florida still has some vegetation alive. I could be wrong also and I could also be full of shit. Wait a little bit, it take time to modify the vegetation mathematical calculator of earth. Just fuck pieces of shit.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 10:46 am
Banks in Canada did not lower the CPG rates following the decision of Bank of Canada to lower the rate. The central of Bank of Canada does not control anything. When the time is right we will use US and Canadian big banks as a lever to crash big mutual funds such as Blackrock, Vanguard and state street. We control everything on earth now.
Earth is just an illusion and we now control the whole illusion, including the banking system.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 10:56 am
As far as I can tell, by looking at CPG rates, big banks have not lower the rates of CPG. Meaning the big banks are refusing to continue housing inflation by making money easily accessible. This is the equivalent of killing Canada economy.
The Canada central bank is a useless organization that can be dismantled. Fire everyone and cancel their generous lifetime pensions. A King could deal directly with the big banks instead of using the useless central bank scheme.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 11:04 am
I told you that if I can full control of earth, I will trash Canada to the ground because of its firearms laws. Live and see.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 11:14 am
The central bank banking model can be abolish and the control of the money supply can be put directly under the authority of a King. When was the last time central bank where able to predict anything correctly. Cut the pension of these stupid cock suckers.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 11:27 am
I will kill everyone on earth if I have the power to do so and keep earth for myself alone. I think I have already said that in the past. I don’t mind killing people that are just illusions with no real flesh body. I don’t mind to kill the dead, they are already dead.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 11:40 am
As long as I am stuck in a flesh body, my goal is to kill all the population of earth and keep earth for myself alone. All of this because of Canada firearms laws. I think it is funny when you think about it.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 11:48 am
I told you that we build earth as a torture and execution chamber. I told the peak oil is a a direct consequence of the law of conservation of mass. You have still doubts about what I said above. You have no idea how much I hate the population of earth.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Snag_3c6e0cb3.png?itok=B94QwRSH
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 12:06 pm
You have no idea how much I hate the population of earth. You also have no idea how deeply I hate women. I can not put my hatred for women in word because there is no word for describing my hatred.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 12:19 pm
Why I am one the of the chosen ones, I don’t know, but if I can kill whole population of earth I will. Next time think twice about creating any kind of laws on firearms possession.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 12:39 pm
This below is the proof that earth calculator are locked and the law of conservation of mass is still governing everything on earth. I don’t care if it is an illusion. This illusion has some hardcore rules that cannot be broken. The dying treed are not vanishing because this will go against the law conservation of mass. We kill the trees instead. This is why we never make any thing disappear in this reality. We cannot make things vanished, instead we are killing vegetation, setting building on fire or collapsing bridges.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Snag_3c6e0cb3.png?itok=B94QwRSH
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 12:42 pm
GOD I hate the population of earth and women. Just have no idea.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 12:44 pm
This is what I mean by collapsing bridge so we respect the principle of conservation of mass. It is an illusion, but there is strict rules governing this illusion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHPEFfzOKMs
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 1:21 pm
15:28 look, the poor trees are dying. I feel so sad. I told all of you that I will all the population of earth because of Canada firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UF8aU1aRGbw
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 1:25 pm
Fucking piece of shit Canada. Fuck I hate this nation. Do all the BS political theaters you want, at the end you will all die like everybody else.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqHhl8rQlT4
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 1:40 pm
Look at the beginning of this video. It starts with a small tree with yellow leaves. This is us telling the population of earth that we will kill all green vegetation. Look the first image that is shown to you in this video, a small tree that is dying. This is god talking to you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=122jIcu9PYA
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 1:42 pm
Look at her yellow jacket.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFRE0uv9qP0
Look at this yellow tree.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=122jIcu9PYA
This is GOD telling all of you that he will kill everyone on earth.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 1:45 pm
You still think it was a good idea to create these Canadians firearms laws. Are you still proud of you.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 2:16 pm
She is dress in full yellow see at 52:19
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38dGjQRZ3EA
This is GOD telling the whole population of earth that he will kill all earth vegetation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=122jIcu9PYA
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 2:27 pm
It was my idea to kill all the vegetation of earth. I made a comment about killing the vegetation on this website two years ago, I think.
Technically, I am the one killing the whole population of earth as I said I would do because of Canada firearms laws.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 3:01 pm
As far as I can tell, by looking at CPG rates, big banks have not lower the rates of CPG. Meaning the big banks are refusing to continue housing inflation by making money easily accessible. This is the equivalent of killing Canada economy.
The Canada central bank is a useless organization that can be dismantled. Fire everyone and cancel their generous lifetime pensions. A King could deal directly with the big banks instead of using the useless central bank scheme.
Basically big Canadians banks have decided to save the natural ressources instead of saving the financial system by not passing down the interest rate cut. Basically central are useless parasite having nothing to offer and should be abolished.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 3:13 pm
Worst come to worst the central banks can be bypassed and people of position of power can deal direct with the big banks to set the nation’s economic policies. This would be the preferred set of actions during the economical collapse to complete ignore central banks advices.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 3:19 pm
In case of complete economic collapse, you don’t rebuild a new government but you let it die. You manage the financial system directly through the big banks.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 3:51 pm
One the government die, you take all the management of the economy in a shadow mode. After a total government collapse there will be no money for the UN, all kinds of NGO, think thanks, immigrations NGO. Everything will be done in a secret way. Only critical parts of the supply chain will receive money : manufacturing, transportations, important utilities such a electricity generation. Everybody else will be deprived of cash and left to die on their own. They are the dead anyway. They don’t see themself in the mirror. What is point of keeping the dead alive.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 3:55 pm
But I still preferer that we kill the whole population of earth by killing the vegetation. I still want the whole planet for me alone. Don’t take the comment above as something that I would like to be part of it.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 3:57 pm
I made a promise to myself to kill the whole population of earth because of Canada firearms laws. I will do my best to achieve this goal.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 4:02 pm
The whole population of earth is simply too heavily mentally retarded to be keep alive. Only the chosen ones will get another life.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 4:07 pm
I still cannot believe how much of a shit holes both US and Canada are. These two are dead nations without any kind of soul. At least when you go to Pattaya, you have the feeling that there something alive there unlike Canada and the US.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riD0xNVZtNs
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 4:12 pm
If you were forced to build a civilizational knowledge lifeboat, where would you put your talented men. In Thailand Pattaya.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riD0xNVZtNs
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 4:24 pm
We will see how things will evolve. I would not be surprised to see Thailand becoming civilizational knowledge lifeboat where intellige men will be given fast citizenship. It really looks like something is happening in Thailand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riD0xNVZtNs
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 4:27 pm
We will see how things will evolve. I would not be surprised to see Thailand becoming civilizational knowledge lifeboat where intellige men will be given fast citizenship. It really looks like something is happening in Thailand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riD0xNVZtNs
Intelligent men will be moved into Thailand and Thailand will receive divine protection. The rest of the world will be completely destroyed by GOD. Same story as the Noa Ark.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 4:31 pm
We will see how things will evolve. I would not be surprised to see Thailand becoming civilizational knowledge lifeboat where intellige men will be given fast citizenship. It really looks like something is happening in Thailand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riD0xNVZtNs
Intelligent men will be moved into Thailand and Thailand will receive divine protection. The rest of the world will be completely destroyed by GOD. Same story as the Noa Ark.
This is where you would park intelligent men. You give them some women to keep them sexual active for when the time will come to repopulate earth.
Tell where I am wrong in my reasoning.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 4:41 pm
Everything has been digitalized, education records, employment history. It would be really easy to identify these talented men.
I still cannot believe how much a of soulless shit holes, the US and Canada are, compare to the so called developing nations.
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 5:05 pm
You really think that men like me will refuse a citizenship from Thailand. You really think I wan to live in something like that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R-ox4mSotg
When I can be treated like a King while waiting to become a procreator.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riD0xNVZtNs
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 7:40 pm
Let’s you are the person responsible for the whole earth. You know that earth has depleted almost all its natural ressources. You know that most Whites Eurepean men are feminized gay man with no testosterone. You plan on restarting a new civilization but you need to save the knowledge. You need a place to put your most talented and masculine men. You know you will use these men to repopulate their earth. You need to keep them sexually active. Where would you put these men. Right there:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riD0xNVZtNs
ee on Mon, 9th Sep 2024 9:51 pm
Look at this chart below.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Appian-Top-Clean-Energy-Mineral.jpg?itok=M_WBadeF
Now you understand why globalism and central banking system is important to Europe. Europe is mostly a Northern nation with cold winter.
Thailand make prefect sense as a civilizational knowledge lifeboat for many reason. One of them is that has no winter
The biggest loser when the international supply chain collapses is Europe.