It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 1:12 am
40:18 she looks at him, meaning, play your acting part, you know this is just theater to manipulate the masses, do a better jobs at playing your part.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgsC_aBquUE
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 1:17 am
They are panicking because they know I am right when I am saying the West will not be rebuilt. Whites men like me won’t be there to rebuild the West. They always go too far, just look at Canada firearms laws. They don’t know when to stop. They always destroy avertin they touch.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 1:41 am
He has no respect for her. He addresses her with the pronoun she and her.
She addresses him with name such Donald Trump, president Trump. She acknowledged that Trump is unique and has its own personality this is why she is using his name. He refused to return the favor. He deeply hates her.
Trump address Kamala only with she and her pronoms. It is means he does not respect her and consider her a fake being without a real personality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgsC_aBquUE
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 2:48 am
She has a piece of paper and pencil and she takes notes here and there. Trump has nothing on his desk. Trump refuse to play the standard debate theater script. She is good student and follows all the standard debate theater script, he does not. Trump represents the regular Whites men that refuses to voluntary cooperate at the continuation of this civilization, she represents the communist elites that are abusing the workers class for their personal benefit.
Beg for my mergy on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 10:40 am
I will kill all the population of earth because of Canada firearms laws. Normally if you were intelligent you would try to appease me by removing all firearms laws. You are just fucking cowards. The population of earth is begging for me to kill them, I will kill all of you as you are demanding, Here some more dying trees for your pleasure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eV7rrHPp2zE
dd on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 10:56 am
We have dying trees on Bloomberg background at 0:21.
It is a total rewriting of earth reality. I even see dying trees in videos that are 10 year old. The past is being rewritten.
Normally if you were intelligent you would try to appease me by removing all firearms laws. You are just fucking cowards. The population of earth is begging for me to kill them, I will kill all of you as you are demanding, Here some more dying trees for your pleasure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPJOevGTEWU
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 11:08 am
Depending how this whole situation will evolve, I might be able to cut the head of Trudeau and Legault and keep them in my bedroom next to my bed as war trophies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAvXI94KEfs
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 11:30 am
We have dying trees on Bloomberg background at 0:21.
This is the proof the we control everything on earth even the financial system. When the times comes we will crash the financial system as I explain in previous comments.
Normally if you were intelligent you would try to appease me by removing all firearms laws. You are just fucking cowards. The population of earth is begging for me to kill them, I will kill all of you as you are demanding, Here some more dying trees for your pleasure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPJOevGTEWU
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 11:42 am
If you are intelligent and want to live, I suggest that you remove all Canadian firearms laws.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 12:26 pm
You want to know why I am 375 lbs. Because it is easier to kill a 120lkb loser boy like Trudeau. It is also easier for a 375 lbs. men to intimated and beat up the director of the EPA when you weight 375 lbs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_S._Regan
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 12:29 pm
There is a reason why I am 375 lbs. It is in the anticipation that I would have to interrogate and beat up people working for the EPA, FDA, USDA, ATF and son.
eed on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 12:48 pm
If you know what is good for you, you will immediately remove all the Canadians firearms laws.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 1:02 pm
We are rewriting thus whole reality. We are even rewriting the past by changing 10 year old videos by changing the color of the vegetation from green to yellow or brown.
If you know what is good for you, you will immediately remove all the Canadians firearms laws.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 1:14 pm
I will stay alive because I might be the only one on earth that is capable explaining to the invisible world how earth is build mathematically speaking. I will probably get eternal life.
All the population of earth is expendable and has no value to us.
If you know what is good for you, you will immediately remove all the Canadians firearms laws.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 1:18 pm
We don’t need the population of earth. You are all expendable. We only need the chosen ones. I spoke about them in previous comment. If you think we don’t have the courage to kill all the population of earth your are making a mistake.
You should do what is good for you. You know what I am talking about.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 1:59 pm
Put all the news that you want about Trudeau, Jews ans Israel. I don’t care. All I see is a planet dying because the green vegetation is dying.
Why should I care about Trudeau and Jews. Why should I care when I want the whole population of earth dead. Why should I care about mentally retarded people?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-informs-un-security-council-direct-war-nato-assured-if-us-approves-long-range
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 2:05 pm
Put all the news that you want about Trudeau, Jews ans Israel. I don’t care. All I see is a planet dying because the green vegetation is dying.
Why should I care about Trudeau and Jews. Why should I care when I want the whole population of earth dead. Why should I care about mentally retarded people?
Why should I care? I am receiving a new body, a new set of eyes and better memory. Why should I care when I want is the death of all the population of earth ?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-informs-un-security-council-direct-war-nato-assured-if-us-approves-long-range
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 2:15 pm
This is typical of the obedience training the government does on its population you. If you have no road infractions, your driver license cost less that if you have some tickets.
They are basically penalizing the trucker driver and other people that are working inside the road transportation supply chaine by increasing the cost of their driver license if they make a small mistake. This is the parasitic nature of the government.
Always punishing the productive people while communist governments contribute nothing and take everything the can for themself.
I want everyone dead on planet earth except for the chosen ones.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 2:22 pm
Either you have an high IQ population that does not need to be governed, or you have nothing.
Apparent the population of earth is to mentally retarded and need to be governed. This does not fit my personal philosophy. So I will kill everyone living on earth and only protect the chosen ones. Earth has nothing to offer us and it is time to kill its population.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 2:26 pm
Either you have an high IQ population that does not need to be governed, or you have nothing.
Apparent the population of earth is to mentally retarded and need to be governed. This does not fit my personal philosophy. So I will kill everyone living on earth and only protect the chosen ones. Earth has nothing to offer us and it is time to kill its population.
Again why do we need firearms laws. Because the population is mentally retarded. I am being penalized because I live among retarded people. Well, I will kill everyone living on earth because Canada firearms laws. Maybe it is time for people like me to get something in return.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 2:37 pm
High IQ people don’t need to be governed. This is why they are called the chosen ones. They will receive help but they will never be governed.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 2:56 pm
Hurricane Francine Knocks Out Power to 400,000
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5x7gIdP4Zoc
I told you that I will kill everyone on planet earth because of Canada firearms laws. Watch us going.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 3:01 pm
Look at 1:18 the tree that Fall on the house. The leaves in the front are yellow the ones in the back are green. I told you that I will kill everyone on planet earth because of Canada firearms laws. Watch us going. We will even change the past by changing older videos with dying vegetation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5x7gIdP4Zoc
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 3:04 pm
0:42 dying trees. This is a 3 year old video. We can even change the past and turn the green vegetation into dying vegetation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2MxoXw1Djo
I told you that I will kill everyone on planet earth because of Canada firearms laws.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 3:07 pm
At least 233 dead in Vietnam following Typhoon Yagi’s aftermath
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFjcJJt0nv0
I told you that I will kill everyone on planet earth because of Canada firearms laws.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 3:26 pm
We are going to kill everyone on earth and give to the chosen ones a bubble of protection. If they need clothing will find a way to give them some clothing. If they need a pickup truck we will find a way to give them a pickup truck.
We don’t need the planet nor the planet earth international supply chain.
We are not helping mentally retarded people that have nothing to offer us.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 3:38 pm
Look at this stupid piece of shit. Look at his moving. He did not receive the upgrades needed to connect himself to new energy field. It is funny to see these pieces of shit die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMVnqJEQoaY
ww on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 3:51 pm
Who is running Thailand. Pink sand at 1:01:55
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcUuVO9I_Mk
Once you kill the mentally retarded living in Thailand, it would make a perfect civilizational knowledge lifeboat.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 4:01 pm
The West not going to be rebuilt. I am not sure how all of this will move forward, but this is I know, the West will not rebuild once it has collapsed.
This is similar to what I wanted. I had some discussion with the invisible world regarding sex as a form of relaxation for the chosen ones. It is really close to what we talked about it.
See at 1:01:55
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcUuVO9I_Mk
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 4:22 pm
I put all this knowledge in public domain for 2 reasons. First I want to humiliate and degrade the West, especially, Québec, Canada and the US. Second, I hope someone will write a book of some kind maybe some kind of bible about what happen and why the population of earth was killed except for the chosen ones. I want people to know.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 4:30 pm
I offered Canada many chances to change the Canadian firearms laws. But you still refuse to appease me. So Canada, Québec and US can go fuck themself. The West will be thrown away the same way you throw in the garbage an old pair of shoes. I have been talking about my displeasure regarding Canada firearms laws for last year an half. You had almost 2 years to do something. Go fuck yourself.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 4:37 pm
The West not going to be rebuilt. I am not sure how all of this will move forward, but this is I know, the West will not rebuild once it has collapsed.
This is similar to what I wanted. I had some discussion with the invisible world regarding sex as a form of relaxation for the chosen ones. It is really close to what we talked about it.
See at 1:01:55
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcUuVO9I_Mk
It is almost perfect. You are missing a big pools in a middle. But the rest is perfect.
Aee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 5:12 pm
I try to remember this whole discussion. It is not coming back to me. I demanded a bunch of improvement as I think the current female we have it total garbage. I demanded a stronger female. Something like the whore here. I was really clear that a new female was needed if they want me to participate into the procreation process.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiwqnJ_Yvuo
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 5:16 pm
I was really clear about the fact that a new female will need to be designed if they want me to participate in the process of sexual reproduction.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 7:19 pm
You see the tree at 7:31 next to the blue chair, this is a dying tree. I have trees looking similar to that in the shopping mall area where I live. I will make a video about this next year. Only the people that will leave earth will live or only the people that will live on divine protected lifeboat will live.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pP7wwjMjcCI
dd on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 7:21 pm
I told you that I would kill everyone on planet earth because of Canada firearms laws.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 8:01 pm
I cannot figure out if this bitch believe what she is saying because she is heavily mentally retarded. Or she is making fun of the US population and hiding it well. this is what happen when put heavily retarded people in position of power.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2-FsjXNT2c
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 8:26 pm
He seems to believe its own bullshit. I think we are a on a planet where 95% of the population is heavily mentally retarded. They speak with confidence but their by the way they speak seem to show a very very heavy level of mental retardation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAv-NT90O18
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 9:13 pm
5:57 look at his fucking face. This is the face of a mental retard.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5djO58Oh7k
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 9:55 pm
they only speak about themself. Everything is about themself. They are communist. Almost all the comment I am writing are not about myself, but more about general observations and sometime some mathematical concepts such as the law of conservation of mass
I think we are stuck with a very heavily mentally retarded population. This is why I am not feeling not guild about recommending the execution of all the population of earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqCTCikfrp0
Karine Jean-Pierre talk about herself.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 10:02 pm
I don’t know what is happening but they are losing it mentally.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/FGIenw2Z9PE
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 10:08 pm
I don’t know what is happening but they are losing it mentally.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/FGIenw2Z9PE
This is what I said would happen if the invisible world was installing a new energy framework on planet earth. Only the people that would receive a new body update adapted to the new energy framework would stay healthy and keep their energetic cohesion. They other ones would lose their energetic cohesion and would die.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 11:35 pm
These people are not military personal, they are trained technicians. Similar to a car mechanics. Most the personal in the army are technicians. Without them, there is no army because of the complexity of the technology involved. Militaries forces will die with the collapse of complexity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rp02iIH94DY
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 11:59 pm
Most of these guys could easily get a job in the private sector with a better pay. There is no reason to server your nation anymore. I have talked about that in previous comments. You lost the West, it is time to accept the fact the West is gone for ever.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rp02iIH94DY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jn7I3kY_B0o
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 12:12 am
The modern army is only possible because of highly trained technicians. See at 8:35 the computer system. This is what happen when you shit on talented people just to pleaae the communists. The talented abandon your civilization.
What are the Canadian firearms laws. Laws that were made to please the communists first and shit on the talented people like me. We are not coming back to help your civilisation. You lost the West deal with it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wj6kCxT0mM
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 12:23 am
0:31 look at his face. they know deep inside that the lost the West and men like me won’t be there to rebuild it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePseIfdUr_c
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 12:26 am
0:31 look at the idiot of the right of Biden smiling like a clown. This is the facial expression of someone that is heavily mentally retarded and he is looking around to see if the group at the table approve of his behavior. Typical fucking loser.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePseIfdUr_c
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 12:52 am
These people are highly trained mechanical technicians. Good luck finding people of this caliber in the general low IQ population we currently living in. Men like me won’t help you rebuild the West.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tu5H8J_R0sU
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 10:46 am
I don’t know how accurate this video is. But this is what I mean by dying trees; At 5:43 on the left. There is no green foliage at the bottom of the trees trunks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlEgOjluJkQ
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 10:56 am
13:49 was destroyed. They always destroy the historical building either by fire or they demolish them. There were never any building there in the first place.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gtp4Zj6JJOo