It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 7:34 pm
12:34 a lot of planning has been put in th creation of this alley. The West does not stand chance if they were to create civilizational knowledge lifeboat. I think the West is done and nobody is coming to save the West, certainly not me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVIyGBfAYZQ
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 7:51 pm
They are doing something to my eyesight. It is an improvement but a lot of work is still needed. I am chosen, I will live matter what. For the majority of you, you will be killed when the time comes.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 8:01 pm
They are doing something to my eyesight. It is an improvement but a lot of work is still needed. I am chosen one, I will live no matter what. I said that I would kill all earth population because of Canada firearms laws and I intend to do my best to achieve this goal.
This is last time that Canada is going to out any kind of laws on firearms. See it for yourself at 5:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy12LmkE7LA
dd on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 8:36 pm
Senoia Georgia dying trees at 8:23.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2IW3dpZoGw
This is last time that Canada is going to out any kind of laws on firearms. See it for yourself at 5:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy12LmkE7LA
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 9:07 pm
Emigration: where are Hungarians going? These are their target countries
https://dailynewshungary.com/emigration-where-are-hungarians-going-these-are-their-target-countries/
I told you that talented people will leave the West if they get a chance. I told you that the West is dead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoCQKsXcDBI
This is nation that is dying where the infrastructures are not maintained anymore. You have weeds all over the place. e
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 9:16 pm
4:00 look at the rust under the windows. This is what you see when men sabotage your civilisation from inside or abandon your civilization. You never recover from that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoCQKsXcDBI
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 9:21 pm
4:00 look at the rust under the windows. This is what you see when men sabotage your civilisation from inside or abandon your civilization. You never recover from that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoCQKsXcDBI
Lowering interest rate will kill what is left of Canada and the US and make any of rebuild impossible like Hungary. You have no idea how much I hate canada.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 9:39 pm
4:00 look at the rust under the windows. This is what you see when men sabotage your civilisation from inside or abandon your civilization. You never recover from that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoCQKsXcDBI
Lowering interest rate will kill what is left of Canada and the US and make any of rebuild impossible like Hungary. You have no idea how much I hate canada.
It would be easy for someone to create an civilisation knowledge lifeboat and attract talented people by giving them fast citizenship. Using educational and employment history an civilisation knowledge lifeboat could be easily created with a time frame of a year. Whites men are eager to abandon the West as soon as an opportunity to do will be given to the them. You are fuck and I am happy to participate into the destruction of Canada
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 11:26 pm
Always the same communist propaganda. There must be upset that I am fucking up their plan to invade earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8J2hs6tuuCA
Always the same buzz words: working, family, peace.
Working= be the servent of the parasite class that cannot build anything by themself: politicians, bankers, CEO, Jews, Women, intellectual academia, .
Family=communism as in the phrase we should work together as a united family.
peace= if we talk to each other and obey authority we can achieve peace on earth.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 11:46 pm
Always the same communist propaganda. There must be upset that I am fucking up their plan to invade earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8J2hs6tuuCA
Always the same buzz words: working, family, peace.
Working= be the servent of the parasite class that cannot build anything by themself: politicians, bankers, CEO, Jews, Women, intellectual academia, .
Family=communism as in the phrase we should work together as a united family.
peace= if we talk to each other and obey authority we can achieve peace on earth.
nearly 2000 families will buy a home at 0:35= we will invade earth and build housing, condos, apartments building everywhere we can. We are mentally conditioning the population, so you don’t revolt against us invading earth using guns.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 11:54 pm
nearly 2000 families will buy a home at 0:35= we will invade earth and build housing, condos, apartments building everywhere we can. We are mentally conditioning the population, so you don’t revolt against us invading. We will confiscate earth population firearms using tight law before we start the invasion.
eed on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 12:36 am
They are training men to worship women. IN the past men were aware of the real nature of women and her amorality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blaC3S9fpFY
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 12:46 am
Invasion is only possible if you kill all the masculine man or kill masculinity. Women are easily manipulated as the worship power and authority, unlike masculine men worship freedom and hate to submit to authority. Invasion can only succeed under a feminized leadership. I thought everyone on earth knew this.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 12:51 am
2:10 she is obtaining obedience from the men by having them go down on their knees. You see the same thing in BDSM sex where the female is the dominatrix and the man the submissive. I won’t look at the whole video, I don’t feel like it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blaC3S9fpFY
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 1:17 am
The Shangri-Las – Leader of the Pack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ge8_6rtQvs
Leader of the pack = government or politicians
governmental agencies (EPA) control a nation and politicians, politicians control women, women control men
This above is the real structure of power of earth.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 2:15 am
Some of these remake are way better than the original. The guitar is better , the voice is better.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVTXsP68Wvk
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 2:29 am
Some of these remake are way better than the original. The guitar is better , the voice is better.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1a4lrA4u_0
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 9:59 am
7:33 dying trees. I did all of this because of hatred. I won’t be happy until the cadavers of all earth inhabitants are put in from of my feet. Canada firearms laws was a really bad idea.
Canada firearms laws was a really bad idea. It is illegal on earth to create weapons of death such as firearms and not share them. You cannot create weapons of dead as tools to manipulate a population and not shared them. I spoke about that. Earth will be punished because of Canada behavior.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJYxMmqiDT0
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 10:03 am
Look we are even killing the trees in Brazil at 0:03
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkRNlfxNb-M
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 10:23 am
the trees in Key West are starting to die also at 8:22. What are you waiting for to abolish the Canadian firearms laws, are you suicidal, because I can help earth population to suicide itself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJ-BNCLlYeY
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 10:32 am
There is no way Canadian government really exist other wise you would have changed the firearms laws to save your skins. No real human would stay there and do nothing while someone is killing the whole planet. This is just a simulation and I am the only flesh human on earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U_xky0lrKE
this is just a simulation.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 10:52 am
It is just a simulation. I have videos on YouTube where I can be easily track using my IP adresse. Normale if earth was populated with real humans they would have send people to talk with me and negotiate something. They would have changed the firearms laws. I am the only real human on earth and I am mostly like a GOD.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U_xky0lrKE
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 11:07 am
Instead of abolishing the Canadians firearms laws and send people to talk with me, you prefer that I killed everyone on earth. You want me to kill you. This is the kind of behavior you would expect from an AI with a really bad software design. Normally with real humans would have come to talk with me and give my a firearm license to apaise me. Basically you are begging me to kill you, otherwise you would have taken action to save your life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U_xky0lrKE
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 11:19 am
You prefer to die, instead of changing the firearms laws. This AI software is really not that good at imitating real flesh humans. Normally someone would have come to talk to me or Canada would have abolish its firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U_xky0lrKE
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 11:27 am
Look at the face of this cock sucker. No way he is real and can see his face in a mirror.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNPQVuCNqOc
It is just a simulation and it is time to turn it off. I might understand that you want to keep real flesh humans to study earth calculators, but stop pretending that the population of earth is real.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 11:36 am
If you truly believe that natural resources depletion is real, nobody would have welcomed a rate cut. People would have demande a raise in interest rate to protect natural resources.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 11:46 am
I will make a video of some of my electronics projects and why I still think that the mains earth calculators are still running and why depletion of natural resources will happen as predicted by the law of conservation of mass.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 12:03 pm
This is my tribute video for Joe Rogan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-FN4LYLS_E
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 12:28 pm
Nobody is watching the videos I made. I am still below 30 views for all my videos. It is like I am the only really human and earth belong to me.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 12:33 pm
SNOW IN MONTANA; COOL SUMMER REDUCES UK BUTTERFLY NUMBERS; ANTARCTICA NEARS -112F; + LA NIÑA ODDS INCREASED IN NOAA’S LATEST UPDATE
https://electroverse.info/
I agree with this. It was a cool summer also in Québec. It was really humide but cool. This is why if I am the last survivor I will drove down to Brazil. The North might become too cold to sustain life.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 12:45 pm
there is no such thing as fusion. The fucking science of earth is full of contradictions. They really believe that electrons, protons and neutrons really exist. According to them these particles have a dimension. They modified the law of ideal gaz to take into account the dimension of these particules. This improve gaz law is so complicated that it is not used int the real world.
They make shit up as they go along. Earth is a simulation with really shitty programming algorithms.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLR1uxqjeTM
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 12:56 pm
I am too lazy to look for it. But if I remember correctly work and energy have the same unit. They are 2 different concepts but share the same units.
Work is defined as the measure of the displacement of an object or a point. Some common examples of force include riding a bike uphill or carrying something in the presence of the earth’s gravity. In essence, work is nothing but a mechanical manifestation of energy. It is represented as W.
https://byjus.com/physics/unit-of-work/
For them work and heat is the same thing.
In science, energy is the ability to do work or heat objects. It is a scalar physical quantity, which means it has magnitude, but no direction. The SI unit of energy is the joule (J).
https://byjus.com/physics/unit-of-work/
Earth science is full of contradictions is you know where to look.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 1:06 pm
The electrical laws are also garbage. They never talk about how inefficient earth electronics are and how much heat its loses just to run simple electronics projects.
I am surprised that we are not all dead yet.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 1:10 pm
I don’t believe electricity exist. I think it is just some kind of heat transfert. Earth tech is not advance enough to study that.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 1:14 pm
After reading my comments, now you understand why I am a chosen one and the rest of earth population are not important. I will live and all the rest of earth population will be killed.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 1:24 pm
Why I do repeat my self a lot in my videos. Because I am losing my connection to my higher self where my intelligence is located.
You can see that at the beginning of this
video.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy12LmkE7LA&t=9s
I will kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. I want all the cadavers of earth population as my war tribute.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 1:26 pm
Nobody will ever put any kind of laws on the possession of firearms after I kill the whole population of earth.
See at 5:05 in the video below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy12LmkE7LA&t=9s
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 1:29 pm
I will kill the whole population of earth just because of Canada firearms laws. Just remember that the day you die.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 1:33 pm
You see at 2:37 I am speaking to my higher self where my real intelligence is.
I will kill all of you because of Canada firearms laws. You have nothing yet.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 1:34 pm
You see at 2:37 I am speaking to my higher self where my real intelligence is.
I will kill all of you because of Canada firearms laws. You have nothing yet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy12LmkE7LA&t=9s
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 1:38 pm
I will kill all the population of earth because of Canada firearms laws. I might even come and kill some of you personally eye to eye.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 1:51 pm
You are all going down and will die like these people on this video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChDUjLf4O9U
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 3:27 pm
You cannot have anything more communist than the Kentucky state seal. It is right in you fucking face.
https://statesymbolsusa.org/symbol-official-item/kentucky/state-seal/seal-kentucky
Why they restrictive firearms laws is to confiscate weapons to make it more difficult to stop the invasion using brutal deadly force,.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 3:30 pm
Why we have restrictive firearms laws is to confiscate weapons to make it more difficult to stop the invasion using brutal deadly force. I thought this was really obvious. If you want to save earth you will have to kill them and remove all firearms laws.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 3:38 pm
I am not seeing any actions that would indicate that some entities are willing to stop the invasion and preserve natural resources. If some people would really want to save earth they would have abolished all firearms laws. I just fucking don’t about earth. Most likely I will get eternal life and all earth population will be killed during the next financial crash.
You will not stop the invasion by talking and arguing. This is why I am slowly preparing myself psychologically at living alone on earth for long time.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 3:45 pm
Show me one instance where the law of conservation of mass failed on you. Show me one instance where something got smaller right there in front of you eyes. Never. Natural resources depletion will happen unless you can rewrite the law of conservation of mass.
And you are still talking and arguing instead of abolishing the firearms laws that might be the only option you have left to save earth a little bit longer.
Earth has to be a simulation. The population of earth has no survival desires. This is just a fucking simulation.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 3:53 pm
IF you understand how dire that situation really is, you would have abolished all firearms laws already and let the purge began. I will give the population of earth what it wants. I will kill all your green vegetation.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 4:11 pm
IF you understand how dire that situation really is, you would have abolished all firearms laws already and let the purge began. I will give the population of earth what it wants. I will kill all your green vegetation.
We will also crash your financial system. We will give you want you want, 0% interest rate. You don’t want to live, you don’t want to abolish firearms laws to stop the invasion. We will kill all the population of earth.
JPMorgan’s Feroli Expects Another 50 Bps Fed Cut in November
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HNEvIn2vQ8
You dont want to live, we will give you want you dead as far as the eye can see.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 4:26 pm
I bet these bitch are no good at anything including sex. I bet they don’t do good blow jobs. I bet they have a smelly vagina
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUNstEzV8DM
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 5:53 pm
What else is there to me to comments on. How will I repeat myself over and over