It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 9:10 pm
You cannot run an army without talented people that can do advance mathematics. Your ability to enforce globalism through the world using the US military is coming to an end. US does not have enough talented people to keep a army functioning at full capacity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pir_muTzYM8
https://forces.ca/en/careers
You failed. You will not be able to impose an one world government on planet earth.
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 9:33 pm
You cannot win against us. Men like me are easily capable of destroying your civilisation. It is the last time that you will ever put any kind of laws on firearms ownership.
https://youtu.be/qEOMvZJyjHs
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 9:56 pm
Fucking communist propaganda hidden in a rock song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTUsFm0BAu8
Everywhere is freaks and hairies
Dykes and fairies, tell me where is sanity
Tax the rich, feed the poor
‘Til there are no rich no more
I’d love to change the world
But I don’t know what to do
So I’ll leave it up to you
Population keeps on breeding
Nation bleeding, still more feeding economy
Life is funny, skies are sunny
Bees make honey, who needs money, No none for me
I’d love to change the world
But I don’t know what to do
So I’ll leave it up to you
Oh yeah!
World pollution, there’s no solution
Institution, electrocution
Just black and white, rich or poor
Senators stop the war
I’d love to change the world
But I don’t know what to do
So I’ll leave it up to you
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 9:58 pm
I’d love to change the world
But I don’t know what to do
So I’ll leave it up to you
What it means, if we talk to each other we can change. If we work together we can change the world.
See how evil these cock suckers are.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 12:12 am
Look at your dying vegetation at 5:33
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udylHWdwiB4
Look on the right you dead bushes with no leaves.
ww on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 12:14 am
6:41 look at your dead trees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udylHWdwiB4
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 12:24 am
7:16 the fucking whore is talking with her eyes closed. A lot of these people are going to be dead real soon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKxdqGK4e1Q
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 1:07 am
I move forward the moon move forward with me. I move backward the moon move backward with me. I am the absolute frame of reference of this reality. This is a concept using in physics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frame_of_reference
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 1:10 am
The reality changes as I move through the absolute frame of reference. Sure seems that way to me.
I move forward the moon move forward with me. I move backward the moon move backward with me. I am the absolute frame of reference of this reality. This is a concept using in physics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frame_of_reference
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frame_of_reference#/media/File:Reference_frame_and_observer.svg
Apparently smoking cigarettes give me inspiration.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 1:14 am
She is heavily mentally retarded. It is so fucking obvious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X75DjOn_8vs
This is not totally accurate what I wrote above. It is just a matter of determining what are the frames of refence.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 1:24 am
She is the typical communist where all the ressources of the planet only exist for the benefit of communists.
At 1:07 she sais where have you been when it comes time to take care of women and children of America. They cannot survive on their own and they more capable person like me should be their slave and it my responsibility to take care of the idiots and low IQ of earth.
Typical communist language.
It is time to kill all of them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X75DjOn_8vs
I spoke about that in this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEOMvZJyjHs
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 1:55 am
Basically what she is telling us is that women are too stupid to survive on their own and they need to dominate a slave to keep them alive.
Basically she is making the case as to why women should not be created again. She is basically saying that women are creation failure and we must kill all the women of the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X75DjOn_8vs
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 2:06 am
Police forces have been created to protect women because the cannot protect themself. The police forces were also created to oppress men and force them into participating into the creation and maintenance of this civilisation for the benefit of women first. Women love to use their children as emotional leverage against men. Usually this strategy fail as men sabotage the civilisation from the inside as it happened to Russia.
The Russians used to say: they pretend to pay, we pretend to work.
This is what I am talking about in this video.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 2:06 am
Police forces have been created to protect women because the cannot protect themself. The police forces were also created to oppress men and force them into participating into the creation and maintenance of this civilisation for the benefit of women first. Women love to use their children as emotional leverage against men. Usually this strategy fail as men sabotage the civilisation from the inside as it happened to Russia.
The Russians used to say: they pretend to pay, we pretend to work.
This is what I am talking about in this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEOMvZJyjHs
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 3:05 am
I need money. I was in parking lot of the store where I bought my cigarettes and I could see the color patches turning around my and a color patch around one of the street light. I need a better vehicle. It is up to you. Plus I want a salary for the work I did so far. I want 100 millions dollars. Make sure that I don’t have to pay income tax on this. I want to go see who many dying trees in the forest. I will need a capable pick up truck to drive on logging roads.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFrN9sBKlVA
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 3:36 am
there is a reason why nobody wants to become a car mechanic. Nobody wants to work on this kind of crap using flat rate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kBp6PFRKfw
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 3:46 am
earth is done. it is time to build a civilizational knowledge lifeboat and destroy earth. Only really talented people should live.
there is a reason why nobody wants to become a car mechanic. Nobody wants to work on this kind of crap using flat rate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kBp6PFRKfw
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 3:48 am
You don’t have enough talented people like me willing to work at maintaining this civilisation alive.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 3:51 am
You lost your civilisation it is over. It is time to setup an emergency plan.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 3:56 am
They still don’t understand that talented people are refusing to help the poor and stupid people. They still don’t get that men like me have walk away from your civilization and will let it die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ej9gtJBfQoo
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 4:23 am
You are having dead trees inside a video doing car review. It funking impressive how much control we have over earth reality.
Look at 3:49 for dead vegetation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aym6DvKiI00
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 4:27 am
Nobody wants to work on these kind of plastic engine. There is a reason why there is a shortage of car mechanics. See at 3:26
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aym6DvKiI00
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 4:36 am
We are really rubbing it into your fucking face that we will kill all earth vegetation.
0:05 a dead tree in front of green vegetation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKZNzMs3l6Y
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 4:48 am
Look at all the dead vegetation at 0:13 We are going to kill all the earth vegetation. We are really rubbing it into your fucking face that we will kill all earth vegetation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xR6NtTA1K48
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 12:03 pm
I was looking at the ingredient in a cereal box. I found something that I thought was suspicious named zinc oxide. It can be used in paint and food. they have no fucking shame. They will put anything in the food. They are poisoning us and show no remorse for that.
Sunscreen – Zinc oxide works as an excellent physical sunscreen, meaning it lays on our skin in a thin layer and reflects harmful UVA and UVB rays without absorbing into our skin. Thus, providing robust protection against the sun’s harmful rays.
Calamine lotion – Zinc oxide works with other active ingredients to provide a barrier that helps dry skin that’s weeping from poison ivy, poison oak, or poison sumac. It even has antimicrobial properties that can help keep germs at bay.
Astringent – Zinc oxide works as an astringent meaning it helps shrink skin and pores and can absorb excess oils. This can reduce acne and help keep our skin dry in the summer heat.
Breakfast cereal – Zinc oxide helps safely fortify breakfast cereals and other foods to make sure we’re getting the nutrients we need.
Paint – Zinc oxide’s white color and reflective properties make it a great pigment in many household paints.
Fucking pieces of shit communists.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 12:10 pm
They have no problem to put in food industrial substance such as zinc oxide. For them industrial chemical substance can also be food additive. I has some much digestives problem that I had to reduce my food intake and the type of food I am eating.
Fucking pieces of shit communists.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 12:15 pm
It is safer to smoke cigarette than it is to eat cereals. think about that. They love putting industrial chemical substance such Zinc, copper, aluminum, titanium and your food.
You cannot save earth.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 12:25 pm
There is simply too many people to kill. Better to take all the talented people into one location and destroy the rest of the world. You cannot fix such a mess.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 12:28 pm
You cannot keep this civilization alive without talented men like me. the problems is that we reuse to work with low IQ communists.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 12:36 pm
I am not going to be the first one to die. You are fucking piece of shit communist. If you think I will share my inventions with the rest of the world, you are mistaken. I want to see you die
https://youtu.be/vb-2WI_6P-A
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 1:28 pm
I will kill everyone on earth because of Canadians firearms laws. It is fucking over for you.
https://youtu.be/u6Nv-GfQE14
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 1:52 pm
I was smoking cigarettes outside my house at 2:00AM. The moon is moving with me when I am moving. I walk forward the moon is moving forward with me. I walk backward, the moon is moving backward with me.
I know everything is fake. As my body will more updates with news sensorial abilities, I will able to see more and more. I can see some spot of energy around street lights. This is why I demanded a salary. So I can buy more decent equipment such as pick up truck and go see for myself in the wood how fast the trees are dying.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 1:56 pm
I need money to buy these kind of expensive scientific instruments.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 1:58 pm
I need money to buy these kind of expensive scientific instruments. I also need a memory update and others update. I will come and kill you in your own realm.
https://www.folioinstruments.com/
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 2:34 pm
I will erase my youtube account, it is not worth it. I am a chosen one anyway why should I bother.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 2:39 pm
You see below, this is fucking engine that is easy to work on. Barely no plastic,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUBeyPRiJoc
Compare to this at 2:09
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BlvhciSQQQ
They want to push people into a smart city. Only the communists are happy with this. Men like me will rebel and sabotage their smart cities from the inside.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 2:43 pm
4:18 look at fucking oil pan made of plastic instead of steel. If you know where to look, you can see that we have a problem of hyperinflation and a problem of natural resources depletion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BlvhciSQQQ
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 2:53 pm
I remove my youtube account, It is a waist of time. The internet is a waist of time.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 2:55 pm
I think I am repeating myself too much. I really don’t give a shit. I am doing this just for my personal entertainment
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 3:27 pm
I told you they are doing on purpose to ruin ICE engine. They want to push people into a smart city. Only the communists are happy with this. Men like me will rebel and sabotage their smart cities from the inside.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/avEWjwqgC4s
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 6:28 pm
I will kill the whole population of earth because of Canda firearms laws.
Everything I see and I heard are transmitted outside of planet earth realm to beings living outside of earth. I can receive telepathic messages from them also. I speak to directly to them by speaking with myself in a regular tone. I even explained to them a little bit of differential calculus and why it was done this way.
You are just fucking losers and I will kill all of you over Canada firearms laws.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 6:31 pm
The only reason earth population is still alive it is because it take a long time to install a new energy field on earth. It has to be done slowly to not kill me. At the end, I will be only survivor on earth, or I will leave earth and let you die on your own stupidity.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 6:49 pm
I told you that we have sabotage your civilization from the inside. It is not normal that you have to lift the cab to access your engine.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/4hqbdDLsxR8
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 8:06 pm
In Search Of The Coming Ice Age … With Leonard Nimoy (1978).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQRqr9_jw5I
the cause: CO2
It is not about CO2. It is about reducing oil consumption so they can build their smart cities before we completely deplete oil. They cannot tell the truth as men like me will refuse to voluntary participate into maintaining their smart cities. They are trying to manipulate the population to voluntary participate into their smart cities. they know that men like me can sabotage their cities from the inside. They from the Russians experience. They pretend to pay us, we pretend to work.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 8:15 pm
I evaluate that they are 20 year behind schedule to relocate people into smart cities. We don’t have enough talented people like me willing to voluntary help them build their smart cities. They went too far with guns laws, feminism, divorce court, women victimhood and other manipulative technics. They lost the support of men like me.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 8:25 pm
They don’t know understand how talented and right wing men think and operate. They always see the world from their own point of vue only. They went way too far and taken way too many from us way too many liberties.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 8:28 pm
They don’t know understand how talented and right wing men think and operate. They always see the world from their own point of vue only. They went way too far and taken away too many liberties from men like me.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 8:53 pm
The went too far on everything. Guns laws, rape laws, divorce courts always on the women side, child protection always on the women side, EV car, the destruction of the car market where you cannot find a decent small pick truck with only the basic equipment with a manual transmission and so on. This is unsolvable.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 9:03 pm
You cannot find a small pickup truck with a small V6, naturally aspirated with port fuel injection system, no direct injection, with minimal electronics system, manual window and a manual transmission. EPA made it impossible for car makers to build these kind of trucks. They really went too far in everything you can thing of.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 9:15 pm
They even have songs that are encouraging women to divorce men. Or, if you will, they know that have given all the power inside a married couple to women using the divorce court. They setup the system in such a way that women control married men using the divorce court. Again they pushed too far and man have decide to walk away from marriage. They always go to far in everything the do.
50 Ways To Leave Your Lover ( Paul Simon ) Marcus Nimbler
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBYmx7L7T0g