It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
eedd on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 11:09 am
I want to make sure that I understand this again. You plane an operation of this scope and monitor me since my birth. You plan an operation of this scope but you neglect my needs completely thinking I would voluntary submit and obey you without questioning. You dumbed me in a shit hole like Canada and denied me access to firearms after all you did to me to scare me. You did not plan ahead that I could need financial assistance or I would need some kind of financial reward for my work, you don’t have a secure and confidential identification and communication protocol to help resolve conflicts between us. And you expect me to work with you in the future. You are really retarded beings. You are really fucking worthless pieces of shit.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 11:14 am
I saw piece of shit Legault in real live when I was younger. It was done through one of my past friend that was in the PQ. It was so obvious that is was a setup done be them. You pass all this time and effort to prepare this operation and you neglect my personal needs. You are just fucking losers.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 11:30 am
This operation deserve to fail and everyone deserve to die, in and out of earth. All of you including the invisibles entities are too stupid to be keep alive. You start this kind of operation and just don’t care what happen to me psychologically, WOW.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 11:40 am
This operation deserve to fail and everyone deserve to die, in and out of earth. All of you deserve to die: flesh beings of earth, invisibles entities living outside of earth, energy beings inside of earth that have no flesh bodies. You are too stupid to be keep alive, I cannot believe that you put me at the bottom of your priority list considering that I am one of the man actor upon which the success or failure this operation depend on my willingness to work with you.
I cannot believe that the best mode of communication we have are fucking images and fake beings introduced into my life. I cannot believe that you could not come up with a better and more efficient communication protocol You are just fucking losers.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 11:50 am
I cannot believe that the best mode of communication we have are fucking images and fake beings introduced into my life. I cannot believe that you could not come up with a better and more efficient communication protocol You are just fucking losers. I asked what is happening to my skin it is changing. I got this really vague response that I will be restored to my original form. That is it. That is their fucking mode of communications. I cannot believe that shit how losers these beings really are.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 11:56 am
What is my original form: longer life, eternal life, augmented physical force and endurance, improve memory, No they will not tell me but they expect that I will work with them.
Fucking low IQ cock suckers
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 12:03 pm
I have been very clean about that to them that if they give the full control of earth I will kill the whole population of earth and keep earth for myself alone. You get that right before giving a new body and new powers.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 12:06 pm
I have been very clean about that to them that if they give the full control of earth I will kill the whole population of earth and keep earth for myself alone. You get that right before giving a new body and new powers. Nobody takes away from me my firearms, especially not Canada and Québec.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 12:15 pm
I don’t care what the fucking police has to say. Nobody takes away from me my firearms, especially not Canada and Québec.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNtGaxG3Q-A
This is not how works. If for some reasons someone decide to give me super powers, I will use them. If I can I will kill the whole population of earth with it, will do it. Some people need to learn to shut their fucking mouth.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 12:18 pm
I have no respect for the police, I will never have any respect for them.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 12:21 pm
I never ask for any of this. My new body was given to me for free. I can guarantee you that if I get super powers I will use them to kill and torture people. Some people need to learn to shut their fucking mouth.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 12:37 pm
The chief of police of Montreal is even not a real White Quebecers, it is fucking Arab: Fady Dagher
I told you that you lost the west.
I will give it to all of you so good if I get super powers. Just hope that I don’t get full control of earth.
Fucking Arab fagget.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/montreal-police-chief-fady-dagher-1.6719794
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 12:43 pm
Notice how the police force moved away from enforcement by force of the laws to a communist approche where we talk to each other to resolve conflict. It is because they are running out of copper. It is because they are pushing people into their smart city and cannot use gun because they have no bullet because copper is rationed for more importants at things like electrical motors.
Quebec’s public security minister, Geneviève Guilbault, called Dagher’s approach to community policing in Longueuil avant-garde in June 2021 and, as she announced a hefty provincial investment in the program, said she hoped other municipalities and police forces would adopt it.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/montreal-police-chief-fady-dagher-1.6719794
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPUSI019011
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 12:44 pm
I am going to kill all of you fucking cock suckers.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 12:50 pm
I told you , it is the perfect time to start a right wing milita and take over the US and Canada. The army and police force are so weak that they represent a minimal threat to a well organized and armed militia.
The army cannot find enough technicians to fix their equipment and polices forces are facing a shortage a car mechanics to keep their vehicle running. Just wait after the election of Kamala.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 1:01 pm
It is possible the the control of the army will be transferred, in the US and Canada, to some right wing leaders. You get access to weapon and ammunitions instantly and can start killing people with minimal resistance from the army and polices forces. I call this they Afghanistan method of transfer of power.
Who said that a collapse of the system using chaos will allow globalist to do a great reset. What if, instead of a great reset, you get a great genocide of the leftists.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 1:11 pm
You wanted a communist civilisation where feminine value are the main code of behavior. Do you still think it was a good idea to kill masculinity to obtain submission and obedience, so you could control people living inside a smart city easier. Are you sure you are really that as intelligent as you think.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 1:44 pm
If they are moving here, it is because they depleted the natural resources from the planet they are coming from. The flow of migrant will never stop. You have already lost earth and its civilization. Only people that will leave earth will live.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 1:48 pm
There will be no formation of militia. Whites men are not coming to save earth or its civilization. prepare yourself do to die. The feminization of earth is way too advanced to be stopped. I am just using this web site as personal entertainment. Take some of my comments with a grain of salt.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 1:52 pm
I hate Canada and Québec too much to come to their rescue. I am simply not capable of forgiving the creation of Canada firearms laws. This is one too many freedoms that has been taken away from me. I simply cannot forgive that.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 1:59 pm
I am one person who believe that eventually there has to be consequences for your past actions. You just cannot walk away from your past actions and pretends it did not happen. Punitives actions will be delivered against planet earth, if I have my says in it.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 2:06 pm
I was always under divine protection since my birth. You are losers compare to me.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 2:54 pm
They have been working at this for a long time. Community police force concept was created in 1995. This is when they started to move away from force enforment of the laws and move toward a communist approche. this is nothing new and it did not start with COVID. It started with the creation of the feminists movement
In 1995, le SPCUM adopte son nouveau modèle de police, la Police de quartier. Visant à mieux contrer les problèmes de sécurité en émergence, ce modèle vise à se rapprocher de la communauté en s’appuyant sur une approche de résolution de problèmes, sur l’établissement de partenariats et sur une plus grande ouverture envers les collectivités. En 1996 et 1997, les 24 districts de Montréal deviennent 49 postes de quartier (PDQ), pour être ensuite graduellement consolidés, au fil des ans, à 29 postes de quartier.
https://spvm.qc.ca/fr/Pages/Decouvrir-le-SPVM/Musee-de-la-police/Histoire-de-la-police-a-Montreal#:~:text=Le%201erjanvier%201972,%20le
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 2:56 pm
They know they will have to ration or stop making bullets because of shortage of copper.
eee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 3:00 pm
Only the people that will receive some kind of protection bubble will be able to stay on earth, Everyone else will die.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 3:04 pm
The real goal behind the creation of the feminist movement was to feminized man into obedience submission.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 3:38 pm
IF you collapse the system, you won’t able to restart it. There is not enough masculines men willing to work at rebuilding it. Plus the natural resources are too depleted.
The only option that you have left is to raise the interest rate but this will just delay the final collapse and the death of everyone. You will have to raise rate to at least 7% to 10% to slowdown the depletion of natural resources. From my point of view your only option is to raise rate.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 6:06 pm
Thailand never disappoint.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkSY55ryU9s
Thailand where an old man can go and buy himself a personal young fuck toy for a whole week and nobody will care or look at you as if you were old dirty pervert sexual man with an erection problem.
dd on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 6:26 pm
If I was rich enough I would abandon Canada and go live full time in either Brazil or Thailand. At least in Thailand you can buy yourself a sexual fuck toy without having the Jews feminist patrol harcell you and calling you an old dirty man with erectile problems. This is what I mean by Canada has taken away from me one freedom too much: my hands guns. Eventually you have to set a red line somewhere.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wG_pQPBSY1k
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 6:37 pm
The futur is not in the West and some Whites mens are starting to look around if they could move to another nations.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 6:43 pm
UN migration compact works both way. It is in fact beneficial for us single man, as it allows us to move freely around the world. Watch the West lose its best and brightest and watch them move abroad. Migration works both ways, meaning that I can also migrate out of Canada.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 6:51 pm
Thailand and Brazil would be perfect to create a civilizational knowledge lifeboat. You take all the highest IQ people and you offer them immediate citizenship to Thailand and Brazil. It is a transfer of knowledge done to save the best. After that you disconnect the West from the international supply chain to persevere the natural resources for the civilizational knowledge lifeboat. The cabal can easily do that the West will never know it.
I piss and shit on Canada and Québec
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 7:08 pm
9:35 old man grabbing the butt of a fucktoy, I had to put a red line somewhere and Canada oprrres fireamrs laws is where I decide to put my right line.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wG_pQPBSY1k
Eventually the Cabal will create civilisationnel knowledge lifeboat and will transfer high knowledge men there and provide them entertainment like you see in Pattaya. Then it will stop the international supply chain going into the West and will let you die there like the imbécile that you all are.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 7:10 pm
9:35 old man grabbing the butt of a fucktoy, I had to put a red line somewhere and Canada oppressive firearms laws is where I decided to put my red line.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wG_pQPBSY1k
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 8:17 pm
Brazil and Thailand can be setup as a civilizational knowledge lifeboats within a matter of a oner or two years. In Québec and probably all around the world, my educational record is stored in computer digital database except for my university education that is stored on a university database.
Could be really easily to do a rapid scan and identify the perfect candidat using the education department database. I swear to GOD the west is begging for us to do that.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 8:44 pm
As far as I am concerned I dont plan helping with fixing Canada and US. I preferer a civilizational knowledge lifeboat build in a warm nations. I hate too much the West.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l28SQ2hJ3Bw
I don’t know if this is true or not, but this 2025 project idea will not work with me and we might sabotage it in favor of civilizational knowledge lifeboat. Canada firearms laws are a red line for me that should have not been crossed. You dared to cross over my personal red line. Too bad, go fuck yourself
dd on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 9:04 pm
You want to know how you save the knowledge of a civilization you save people with high IQ. I am not talking about media people, journalists, politicians, financial elites, lawyers, government employees and so on
Here my fucking list
-Engineers with experience in the manufacturing industries
-Heavy machinery mechanics that have 5 year of more of experience in repairing complex problems
-Diesel mechanics and car mechanics
-Electricians, plumbers, welders with experience in manufacturing industries.
-Applied mathematicians
-Applied industrial chemistry.
All this could be done within a year using world wide educational databases and employment working income database.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 9:49 pm
I am The Vengeful One
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-mgcTRrcQo
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 10:13 pm
Test
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgiWNrOH1-0
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 10:50 pm
This is fucking funny setting fire to the bathroom truck LOOOL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkSY55ryU9s
Rarely Thailand disappoint
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 11:13 pm
The cabal was a able to start a fake Iranian revolution to hide the fact the Iran had passed its peak oil. The cabal can easily turn Thailand into a civilizational knowledge lifeboats and transfer a lof of high IQ men there inside one year time frame. After it can kill all the population of earth that is not part of the civilizational lifeboat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wG_pQPBSY1k
I piss and shit on Canada, US and Québe
cee
ed on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 12:20 am
Compare the US
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFccFFonBk0
to Thailand
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wG_pQPBSY1k
I told you that the West is done and not coming back. The West will not be rebuild once it collapsed.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 12:37 am
Look at the number of Whites single men in this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wG_pQPBSY1k
It would not take much work to setup Thailand as civilizational knowledge lifeboats
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 2:15 am
Is this a some kind of joke. It looks like a fucking joke. Is this shit real. No wonder why Whites men are leaving. Is this a fucking joke. Is the US and Canada only populated with heavy mentally retarded people
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32pTBuQsHqU
Thais people at least know how to do real
comedy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkSY55ryU9s
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 2:22 am
Is the West only populated with Whites mentally retarded people.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 2:29 am
People will abandon the West if the leadership does not get their shit together. The West will be dropped out of the supply chain and left to die on your own.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32pTBuQsHqU
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 2:35 am
We will cut the West out of the international supply chain if you don’t fix your shit. We are wasting too much natural resources just to keep alive mentally retarded people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32pTBuQsHqU
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 5:50 am
Finally, someone else understand the concept of conservation of energy and the net energy principle applied to a energy source.
https://substack.com/@thehonestsorcerer/p-147886342
You are fucked. I am surprised that the cabal has not build a civilizational knowledge lifeboat and remove out of the international supply chain the Western world (stop maritime cargo shipping going into the West). The Western world is full of mentally retarded people, it simply normale to shut it down first.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 5:54 am
He understand how earth calculator of conservation of energy work. There is a chance that he might leave planet earth.
Producing much of these so called liquid “fuels” (some of them are actually feedstocks to plastics and ammonia production) takes a whole lot more energy, than what they give back in return. For example when making liquefied natural gas (LNG), the chilling and compression operation alone takes up as much energy than what is stored in the end product itself. In other words: only half of the extracted natural gas gets transformed into LNG, the other half is burned to power the LNG facility, the ships and docks. And while this is certainly good for business (at least on the short run), the rising energy cost of energy is slowly killing the economy.
https://substack.com/@thehonestsorcerer/p-147886342
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 6:11 am
There is a chance that he might also stay on planet earth and receive a bubble of protection so he can study the algorithm of degradation entropic and the backward entropic degradation clock once everyone is dead.
Finally, someone else understand the concept of conservation of energy and the net energy principle applied to a energy source.
https://substack.com/@thehonestsorcerer/p-147886342