It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 12:37 pm
You are still think that Europe, WEF and United Nations are a good friends of the human race.
Nobody was a bigger proponent of women rights then Europe, WEF and UN. They responsible for the destruction of masculinity and the collapse of heavy manual labor part of the supply chain. They are proud about that achievement of theirs
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 12:45 pm
We witnessing in real time the collapse of the heavy manual labor part of the supply chain, think of car mechanics. This could be unfixable. You still like feminism. Look at Canadian firearms laws that are specially designed to kill masculinity and create obedient male slave that will submit to women desires.
Look for yourself:
https://forces.ca/en/careers
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 12:48 pm
Mass killing of traitors will be needed and make an example of things no to do.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 12:50 pm
Only chaos is coming from the Europeans of Europe and the Jews. They should be avoided at all cost.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 1:02 pm
They are telling you in the own language that they will install a monarch to go after the cabal. They are telling you what is coming ahead.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/cAt7Su9Q8DE
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 2:30 pm
It also possible that because of advanced natural ressources depletion, lowering the rate will start hyperinflation within 3 months, then they will be forced to raise rate to save the face. We could see all that during Harris presidency the hyperinflation caused by lowering the rate followed by raising the rate as of panic. All of this could easily happen withing a period of 8 months depending on the state of the supply chain and natural ressource left. This will guarantee her execution by a crowd.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 2:37 pm
The fact that we are not all dead, surprised me. Considering that very soon the long haul trucking supply chain will stop because of the lack of replacement parts and the shortage of mechanics capable of working on really complex engines.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 2:56 pm
Look at the PPI of plastic. You can see oil depletion and inflation in real time with this graph.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU325211325211
1979 a fake Iran revolution was created to hide Iran rapid oil depletion
1987 Russian first peak oil,
2001 September 11 was to hide the fact that many nations were reaching their peak oil. This is why you have a increase in plastic price
I told you that I won. Never take away the firearms of a man like me, you might see heavy retaliation for that
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 2:59 pm
Notice 2020 Covid was a gimmick created to send money directly to people to keep a collapsing financial system alive a bit longer,
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU325211325211
I am killing the people of planet earth because of Canada firearms laws. Never take my fucking firearms away from me. I hope this lesson is will learn now
eeddd on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 3:04 pm
Notice the rapid price increase in 2020. This was the beginning of hyperinflation but somehow it died. I am telling you , lowering the rate this time will create hyperinflation if the banks loan the money to restart the housing market.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU325211325211
Never again a dimensional traveler will be denied personal protection (guns) like Canada did to me. I hope the lesson is learned now.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 3:55 pm
You are panicking fucking pieces of shit. You are afraid fucking cock suckers. See 1:13 the hand on the rail. Notice how fake they both look at 0:00. You are afraid we are coming for you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGg3VB6dK70
eee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 4:21 pm
Show me on time where the calculator of conservation of mass failed. Show me one time where the flow rate inside a pipping system stop behaving according to the principle of conservation of mass. you cannot, therefore natural resources depletion will happen. The whole planet earth is being punished because of Canada firearms laws. Never again a dimensional traveler will be denied personal protection like it happen to me.
Below is the law of conservation mass applied to oil but translated into a monetary form.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU325211325211
eee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 8:20 pm
It is becoming really obvious that there is a lack of masculinity among men living in Western nations. Go look at Canada firearms laws, it is done of purpose to psychologically kill masculinity and make men slave of women. It is getting more and more difficult to hide. This has been going I would say since I am born.
You are losing the hard manual labor part of the supply chain (car mechanics) because of that. You might never recover from that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tqSKsjBDoQ
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 8:23 pm
In Québec the feminization of men was started by Janette Bertrand. This has been going on for a long time. I am still surprised were are not all dead yet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tqSKsjBDoQ
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 8:35 pm
It is impossible to maintain earth supply chain using only feminine values. You are starting to see the effect of the lack of masculinity such as mechanics shortage.
I will repeat. Never again a dimensional traveller will be left without personal protection (guns) in the future. We are going to use earth so send message to other realities.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 8:38 pm
It is basically over for earth and its population. I hope the rest of the universe is leaning value lessons out of earth experience.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 8:43 pm
Earth has been designed to run more efficiently under a masculine set of values. I am surprised that the intellectuals of academia cannot see that. Everything is physically demanding on planet earth. Everything is heavy weight wise. It was a reality made for men not for women.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 8:45 pm
Earth population will be shown no mercy. Nobody takes away from me my firearms and live to brag about it.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 8:56 pm
Some people other then me, might demand retaliation against the traitors of earth. I am not the only one seeking revenge in all of this.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 9:14 pm
A lot of people might want revenge. Unmarried women without kids might seek revenge against the feminist movement, some will seek revenge for restrictive guns laws, some men will seek revenge against the divorce court for ruining their life. You get the idea. Some will seek revenge against the FDA for ineffective and dangerous medical drug.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 9:26 pm
This is why they cannot tell the truth. They lied to us for too long, so they know this will not be forgotten and that will unleash a wave of retaliation as soon as people are told the truth. This is why they try to control free speech.
Wait until you explain to Unmarried women without kids how the feminist movement is responsible of their fate. Most likely they might seek revenge.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 11:54 pm
Look at how coward the police force really is. There are no match against a real militia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRtcU9ng2Zs
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 12:05 am
These vest are garbage and a danger in a situation of hand to hand combat. They restrain your arms movement. This is more about projecting fake force, power and lethality. It is about obtaining voluntary compliance to authority by projecting the apparence of lethality. This is a desperate move.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llcI9B5G814
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 12:18 am
They are out of copper and have to save it for electrical motor. So they will cut down on bullets production. Of course they are not going to tell you that. They have to find another way to intimidate people. This is the purpose of the vest.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPUSI019011
This is more about projecting fake force, power and lethality. It is about obtaining voluntary compliance to authority by projecting the apparence of lethality. This is a desperate move.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llcI9B5G814
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 12:33 am
Once you understand that they never tell the truth about anything, it is easier to understand why the act this way.
rr on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 1:36 am
the people working for the government, rich elites in the financial industries, WEF, UN and many more are at the bottom of the scale of power of the universe. They are at the bottom of the pyramide of power of the universe. On top of them there is some kind of human hybrid a bit like me, then the invisible world as I like to call them, above them the creator or reality.
The powerful elite of the earth is at the bottom of the pyramid of power. In fact they are not part of the pyramid of power and don’t have access to divine knowledge. THey are losers that are disposable.
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 2:19 am
Cops are just fuckin coward. Militia group will deal with them really fast.
17:55 5 cops against one man.
Fucking coward.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0DtuwC44Mmk
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 10:11 am
It is possible that i am one on the creators of earth. I know too much about its high level mathematic design. If I did create the earth, I did it to kill its population. I will repeat that, I am killing all earth population because of Canada firearms laws. Never again a dimensional traveller will be denied personal protection (guns) like Canada did to me. Prepare to die because I want you dead. I hope you will remember to never again put any of restriction on the ownership of firearms.
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 10:20 am
I am also against sexual reproduction and the creation of women. Depending how facts will move on the earth, we will use Harris, her husband and children to make a point about accepte design practices.
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 10:48 am
Remember that we created earth in the goal of torturing and killing its population. this is one of the main design criteria of earth. This is why you see stuff like this.
US Fertility Rate Drops To Record Low: CDC
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/us-fertility-rate-drops-record-low-cdc
Our goal was always to kill you and send messages while doing it. Guns ownership and freedom are principles that we believe. Canada through is firearms laws is guilty of violating the principle of freedom and will be punished for that. As part as I am concern freedom principle is not negotiable and is a big driver of creativity.
Regarding low fertility rate, this was done using degradation entropic factor applied during the process of reproduction. This will mean stupider people, weak people physically, low fertility rate or infertility.
I will fucking repeat that Never again a dimensional traveller will be denied personal protection (guns) like Canada did to me. Prepare to die because I want you dead. I hope you will remember to never again put any of restriction on the ownership of firearms.
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 11:10 am
Look at how blurry the vide is. A new energy framework is being installed on planet earth, and only beings with a update body made to work with the new energy framework will stay alive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tK-5YIjflBk
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 11:20 am
A new energetic framework is currently being installed. Look at his neck. Only the chosen people will stay alive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VXEn_Kh3Rg
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 11:36 am
‘Festival Of Diversity’ Horror: Manhunt For ‘Arab-Looking’ Man After 3 Killed, 8 Wounded In Mass Stabbing In Germany
They are making fun of knife that you see in movie. Big knifes with big blades don’t cut well. Try it, take a big knife and try to cut carboard 3/16 inch thick and compare that with a utility knife with a narrow blade.
Everything is fake on this fucking planet. I have throw away almost all my big hunting knifes and bought some more utility knifes. The big blade knife is about giving the visual impression of lethality when it is not real.
These kind of knife cut really well. Try them on 3/16 inch carboard and you will see.
https://www.canadiantire.ca/fr/pdp/couteau-tout-usage-a-lame-pliante-mastercraft-bleu-0575084p.html?rq=knife
These knife don’t cut, The blade is too thick. Everything is fake here, same as the police vest that is made to project the image of lethality.
https://www.canadiantire.ca/fr/pdp/couteau-de-chasse-tactique-sog-avec-etui-en-nylon-et-ceinture-4-3-4-po-0755638p.html?rq=hunting+knife
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 11:47 am
I would have no problem with a thin leather glove to grip the blade of a big hunting knife in a hand to hand to combat situation to destabilize the adversary. Depending on the age of the knife and my personal evaluation of the sharpness of hunting knife blade , I would gripe the blade bare hade to destabilize the adversary.
I would not to do that an utility knife, these blades are too sharp.
Everything is fake here and made to manipulate you psychologically
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 11:52 am
I don’t have access to firearm here in Canada. but my guess is that they are not as lethal as they pretend and inconvenient to manipulate. Once in a while the police pretend to kill someone just to scare you in believing that guns are lethal and dangerous.
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 11:58 am
Your politicians and elites are full shit. Any form of retaliation should include their execution first in a public setting done in a brutal manner.
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 12:12 pm
Normally the cabal would have push me out of earth reality so I stop destroying their reality by telling the truth. I am not talking about killing me but ejecting me out of their reality. The fact that I am still here probably means that we will kill all the population of earth.
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 1:18 pm
This is what I mean by training psychologically people to worship authority, obedience and seeking group approval. It is only way to have a functioning smart city. To have a fucking smart city you are to kill the men desire for freedom. This is why you have to destroy masculinity, otherwise your smart cities will not work.
7:51 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqULJobgflM
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 1:20 pm
Once you kill masculinity, you also kill the hard manual labor part of the supply chain (car mechanics). Then you collapse your civilization because of that. I don’t understand why we are still alive. I have already made comments about that and I will not repeat myself.
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 1:29 pm
I still don’t understand why you are not giving money so I can travel in full confort the world and give my personal impressions. You are running short on time as you have almost all depleted your natural ressources.
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 1:30 pm
I still don’t understand why you are not giving me money so I can travel in full confort the world and give my personal impressions. You are running short on time as you have almost all depleted your natural ressources.
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 1:43 pm
No I am talking about real money here, something between 100 to 250 millions. So if I wanted to, I can rent a super car and go to Monaco casino and see how it working inside.
I could go to Pattaya, living in the most expensive hotel in the most expensive room and buy myself a bar girl for a week and fuck her to see if she is e real. I need real money to do that kind of shit.
You know that you are about to lose planet earth. Your window to collect information about earth is rapidly decreasing. You get that right.
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 1:53 pm
No I am talking about real money here, something between 100 to 250 millions. So if I wanted to, I can rent a super car and go to Monaco casino and see how it working inside.
I could go to Pattaya, living in the most expensive hotel in the most expensive room and buy myself a bar girl for a week and fuck her to see if she is e real. I need real money to do that kind of shit.
You know that you are about to lose planet earth. Your window to collect information about earth is rapidly decreasing. You get that, right.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPUSI019011
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU325211325211
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 4:08 pm
I have been drink tap water for the last 2 weeks and very diluted coffee with no cream and sugar. I urinate so well. It is a big and strong constant flow of urine for start to finish.
If I was about to leave earth, maybe you need to remove the water out of your body and stop eating.
I can wait to see the population of earth die
because of Canada firearms laws.
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 4:50 pm
This shit is fucking hilarious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxj2vlCVPNE
ee on Sat, 24th Aug 2024 4:53 pm
I swear to GOD, that the women speaking want to cry but she is holding it back. You know you will be killed because of Canada firearms laws. You know we are going to kill all of you and we mean it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxj2vlCVPNE
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 8:56 am
They make fucking good porn. In 1990 we have VHS porn before the internet. Girl look unhappy and upset. I looks like they were doing it only for the money. Oh man things have changed. Now girls are smiling and seems like willing participants that love it sex. Every sexual fantaisies you can imagine is there. Everything is there.
Compare to VHS tape of 1990, there has been a big evolution.
As soon as the internet appeared in 2000, porn also started immediately. Back 2000, you were wondering it the internet has not been created to show porn first and the rest second.
It is fake porn, but it good fake porn.
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 9:37 am
I have suspected for a while that we might be moving into a full blow fantasy reality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEzR46j0miw
The flesh body is not adapted to a full blow fantasy reality where can do weird sexual acts like full anal fisting and not be harmed. Or you could be in war but you will not be killed by bullets.
I just don’t see how the transition can be done.
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 9:49 am
Even star trek now looks like an fantasy reality. Flesh body is really inadequate for for a fantasy reality where almost everything is allowed. The flesh body is too fragile and cannot take abuse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYfXhCp2UVY
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 10:16 am
A full fantasy reality means no firearms laws, full sexual depravity where everything is allowed, no police force. no real form of government. A full fantasy reality is probably chaotic in nature with no formal justice system. Only cohesion laws such as such as gravity, heat and cold and a solid form algorithm think of a table. Most likely a full fantasy reality required a really high IQ.
This is not for everyone.