It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 10:24 am
A full fantasy reality means no firearms laws where all kind of violence is accepted including rape murder, full sexual depravity where everything is allowed, no police force, no real form of government. A full fantasy reality is probably chaotic in nature with no formal justice system. Only cohesion laws such as such as gravity, heat and cold and a solid form algorithm think of a table. Most likely a full fantasy reality required a really high IQ. The flesh body is not really build for that and will need a lot of upgrade.
This is not for everyone.
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 10:29 am
A full fantasy reality means no firearms laws where all kind of violence is accepted including rape murder, full sexual depravity where everything is allowed,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LV2-SY36Ss8
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 10:38 am
Korean female are always presented as hyper sexualized on the web. This is what I mean with a fantasy reality. Any kind of clothing is allowed. What are you going to with me flesh body.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6B6tp_m9uY
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 11:01 am
I hope I am wrong, because fantasis reality are not my cup of tea.
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 11:06 am
I hope I am wrong because fantasy realities will not work for me. Some people might like it, but I don’t. I will wait and see. Only reality acceptable is me alone and everyone else dead.
Nobody takes away my firearms and live.
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 11:11 am
I want everyone on planet earth dead and I want my own personal reality for me alone and the upgrade I demanded. Everything else I will reject.
I want the whole planet earth punish because of Canada firearms laws.
Nothing esle will make me happy.
eed on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 2:13 pm
You have women now dressing almost butt naked and nobody is trying to rape them or gang bang them. We are going to pretend that is prefect normal that straight heterosexual man don’t want to rape them.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/EQlMHQHc5BA
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 2:22 pm
I am the only one with enough testosterone to think that if I women is wearing tight legging, she should be expected to be raped and it should not be a crime..
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 2:27 pm
I am the only one with enough testosterone to think that if I women is wearing tight legging, she should be expected to be raped and as straight men I intent to enjoy raping her sexual. I am the one man thinking that on earth. Everyone is a fucking gay except me.
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 2:48 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ggkc3N38emM
Women like that can wark through the city without being afraid of being raped. Am I the only one who think they deserve to be raped and the man doing the raping should enjoy it to its fullest until he is complete relieve sexually. I am the one with testosterone left on this planet. Every man on earth is fucking gay. Maybe this is why they chose me, I have an high IQ and some testosterone left.
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 2:53 pm
You are telling me that you will sit there and watch your civilisation collapse because of the lack of testosterone and you are fine with. You are find with the fact that you cannot get your car or semi-trailer truck fix because of the lack of testosterone. Just fuckin WOW
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 2:57 pm
You are telling me that you will sit there and watch your civilisation collapse because of the lack of testosterone and you are fine with. You won’t ever try to save your civilization. by maybe changing the Canadian guns laws. You will sit there and do absolute nothing. Just fuckin WOW. I know now whey they came to me.
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 3:50 pm
The food I eat taste really bad. the after taste stay with me for an hour. It is like it is done on purpose to force me to stop eating. I am all for it. I want to leave this realm as fast as I can. Earth is a mental asylum, no reason for me to stay here. See my comments above regarding mental asylum.
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 5:18 pm
Monaco the perfect gimmick. You don’t need to manufacture anything, you pretend to be a heaven for the rich to attract tourists inside your nation. With the tourist come the international currencies into your economy, which currencies you can use later to connect yourself to the supply chain and act as a parasite. Monaco is the definition of a parasite. You usually kill this kind of parasite as they just drain ressources and provide nothing in return.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uGPdpvwcOs
dd on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 5:28 pm
Give me money, I will go investigate Monaco. Fucking cuck sucking parasite.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uGPdpvwcOs
dd on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 5:33 pm
Japan is also a parasite attach to the US back using their automotive industry and currency devaluation.
The headquarter of the trilateral commission is located in Japan. What other proof do you need.
The Asia Pacific Group
Japan Center for International Exchange
Meisan Tameike Bldg. 7F, 1-1-12 Akasaka, Minato-ku, Tokyo
tel: 81-3-6277-7781
http://www.jcie.or.jp
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 5:36 pm
Japan can only be prospered if it destroys the US car industry. Fucking cock suckers,
dd on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 5:44 pm
Japan, South-Korea and the EPA are directly responsible for killing the sub-compact and compacts car segment of Ford and GM. All they are left with is pick-truck market share of the US.
dd on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 5:52 pm
The number of parasites attached to the US back is way too much. Actions to remove parasites should have been taken a long time ago.
dd on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 5:56 pm
Hopefully I will be extracted out of this planet soon. I cannot stand this fucking place.
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 5:57 pm
Another parasite that need to go Israel and the Jews
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 6:05 pm
There some kind of energy spots that live with us on earth. I can see them something at night under the right conditions. Main colors are green, blue, red and yellow. I think they are capable of modifying the lights spectrum and create images around us. There is another type also that look like an energy ball and seem able to project some kind of small electricals sparks. Earth is just a fucking garbage can for the unwanted things that the rest of the universe hate.
eed on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 7:41 pm
Some fucking losers at the UN, WEF and other NGO think that helping the poor and low IQ will open to them the doors to heaven and GOD will love you for that. You have that shit all wrong. We don’t care about the poor, we don’t care about the mentally retarded, we hate communist and love freedom. We love high IQ people that will fight for their absolue freedom, we hate slave. Canada firearms laws prove that Canada is unworthy to be saved.
Very few people will leave earth. We care about knowledge and high IQ individual.
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 7:50 pm
I will tell you that right now, no Jews will be allowed to leave earth. All the Jews stay on earth and die on earth.e
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 10:02 pm
I can give Monaco a better show then this. Image that I am show up there with my Mercenaries in a green army truck. I get out the truck I have a gun strapped to my chest with gun chest harness. I have a gun strapped to my upper leg. I carry a 12 gauge riffle in my hands. I spoke at someone at the entrance and says, bring to me manager of the hotel, I need to speak with him. Now you speak to him outside in the parking where everyone can see you. While talking you make threating gestures. Then you tell your guys to guard the entrance of the hotel.
that is going to be 100 millions. Monaca just have to contact me using this website. I can do wait much better theater then this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNkWuEK-BhI
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 10:12 pm
I can include a female sex toy of 20 year old in the theater plat. I can grab her pussy right there in the parking lot to show to the crowd that I am a alpha male. That will cost you 50 million more. I think it is bargain. Think about it, I could help Monaco increase its touristic revenus.
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 10:21 pm
If you don’t want me to grab her pussy in public. I can slap her face, spit on her face, grab in pony tail and force her to lick my dirty army boots. This will be more expensive and will cost you 75 millions.
ee on Sun, 25th Aug 2024 10:59 pm
Watch these fucking cock suckers unloading their theatrical cars at 11:17. Fucking parasites. Usually for your own survival you kill a parasite like Monaco.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F70E-Lim_h0
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 5:58 am
Canada was not there to help me when I needed a hand gun for personal protection and psychological support. I will not be there to help Canada and Québec in their time of need. Both can go fuck themself.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 6:08 am
I am committed to kill everyone living on planet earth to make sure that my message is well understood.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 7:10 am
I will kill everyone on earth to make sure that no dimensional traveller will ever be left again in the future without personal protection.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 7:18 am
There is a moment in a man life where a man must stand for something. I stand and believe with full freedom. Canada firearms laws are unacceptable to me from the point of view of freedom. I intend to kill all the population of earth to send the message that freedom matter to me and other men also and we have neglected by planet earth by value obedient, slavery and submission above freedom.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 7:19 am
This is not negotiable. The population of earth must die so the concept of freedom can live.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 7:31 am
There is a moment in a man life where a man must stand for something. I stand and believe with full freedom. Canada firearms laws are unacceptable to me from the point of view of freedom. I intend to kill all the population of earth to send the message that freedom matter to me and other men also. We have been neglected by planet earth by which worship above all the values obedience, slavery and submission above freedom.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 7:37 am
La grosse chienne Legault. Câlisse que j’ai envie de lui couper la tête a chaque fois que je vois sa câlisse de face a TV. Ma criss de chienne de tabernacle.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 7:40 am
Mes criss de câlisse de tabernacle. Je ne serais pas content tant que je n’aurais pas la tête coupée de Legault et Trudeau dans ma chambre a couche comme décoration.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 7:57 am
Je veux aussi la tête coupée de la chienne a
Pierre Poilievre. You had the fucking balls to involve me in this without my authorization fucking whore.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 8:08 am
Fucking low IQ pieces of shit cock suckers. You are destroying me inside by keeping me on earth. I will be good for nothing because you have no emergency evacuation plan for me in case I was starting to lose my sanity. I will fucking kill you all.
The universe is populated with fucking piece of shits in and out of earth.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 8:22 am
I really don’t understand why I need to be on earth and witness all of this. I really don’t see how beneficial it is for me in the long term. I always knew there were just losers in and out of earth.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 8:26 am
You should have know that I would try to get a hand gun after what you did to me. You should haver prepared for that and change Canada firearms laws. You must have known that I would get scare and start looking for personal protection. You are just fucking losers in and out of earth.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 8:30 am
Fuck you are just stupid pieces of shit in and out of earth. Just pieces of shit.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 8:32 am
It never occurred to you that I would be looking for personal protection. It never occurred to you to plan for that and try to make my life easier. What kind of fucking losers are you.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 8:35 am
You started this operation and you did not know that I am a guy of the right that value freedom above everything. You dumped me in earth that is a leftist shit hole. What the fuck where you expecting fucking losers.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 8:36 am
On top of that you don’t provide me any financial support and expect me to work for free as a good obedient submissive slave. You really are fucking losers in and out of earth.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 9:00 am
You are just fucking pieces of shit in and out of earth. You must have knows that I like to alone and would not like to be involved in it. You are just fucking losers. You must have knows that I would ask for some kind of salary for my work. You must have knows that I would see to acquire a hand guns after what you did to me.
You are really just fucking losers.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 9:03 am
You are just fucking losers. You could not plan these things: giving me a salary, easy access to firearms, secure communication and identification protocols so we can avoid misunderstanding. You are just fucking losers.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 9:06 am
Je veux aussi avoir la tête de la grosse salope a Doug Ford. Mes tabernacle de criss de calise.é
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 9:27 am
You are just fucking loser, it is unbelievable.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 10:24 am
As time goes by, I am starting to realize that invisible entities are just stupid pieces of shit no better then the people they are trying to kill on earth.
.
ee on Mon, 26th Aug 2024 10:59 am
I want to make sure that I understand this again. You plan an operation of this scope but you neglect my needs completely thinking I would voluntary submit and obey you without questioning. You dumbed me in a shit hole like Canada and denied me access to firearms after all you did to me to scare me. You did not plan ahead that I could need financial assistance or I would need some kind of financial reward for my work, you don’t have a secure and confidential identification and communication protocol to help resolve conflicts between us. And you expect me to work with you in the future. You are really retarded beings.