It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
WHY elite whitey (((supertard))) president FamousDrScanlon didnt MUZZ-19 himself with reckless abandonmnent on Thu, 27th Jun 2024 9:33 pm
On This Day…
Jun 27, 2015: Deir ez-Zor, Syria
Four accused homosexuals are thrown from a roof: 4 Killed
On This Day… Jun 27, 2015: Deir ez-Zor, Syria Four accused homosexuals are thrown from a roof: 4 Killed on Thu, 27th Jun 2024 10:06 pm
I knew some wrong when a pretty little white girl ran to a black man arms dead giveaway deadddddddddddddddddddddddddddd giveaway
WHY elite whitey supertard president Elon lies when elite whitey supertard Newton made 1st LAW we have spacecraft and exhaust gas pushes against each in vacuum taken as a whole both physical frame and exhaust entity only elongates on Sun, 30th Jun 2024 11:41 am
On This Day…
Jun 30, 2017: Linz, Austria
An elderly couple’s throats are slit by a ‘radicalized’ migrant: 2 Killed
WHY elite whitey supertard president Elon lies when elite whitey supertard Newton made 1st LAW we have spacecraft and exhaust gas pushes against each in vacuum taken as a whole both physical frame and exhaust entity only elongates on Wed, 3rd Jul 2024 5:40 pm
On This Day…
Jul 03, 2018: Hawija, Iraq
A family of four is among those forced
into a cage and burned alive: 12 Killed
Morant on Fri, 5th Jul 2024 4:27 am
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DILATED ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE SHOCK EXTREME BAZZAIRE on Tue, 9th Jul 2024 11:34 am
WHY elite whitey supertard president Elon lies when elite whitey supertard Newton made 1st LAW we have spacecraft and exhaust gas pushes against each in vacuum taken as a whole both physical frame and exhaust entity only elongates
WHY elite whitey (((supertard))) president FamousDrScanlon did not MUZZ-19 himself with reckless abandonmnet on Thu, 11th Jul 2024 11:45 am
DILATED ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE SHOCK EXTREME BAZZAIRE
communtiy energy systems on Thu, 18th Jul 2024 4:23 pm
again i have to complain about the EV thread here because nobody will let comment on the thread…when they talk about making earth mover and such electric…no way would that happen and they are using as a straw man argument…the mover and other “super equipments” function would have to broken down and creative processes created..but it will be done…
Elite Whitey Supertard President Jay Hanson on Sat, 20th Jul 2024 7:20 am
Why this elite whitey supertard dead at the hands of Supremacist Muzzies
WHY elite whitey supertard president Elon lies when elite whitey supertard Newton made 1st LAW we have spacecraft and exhaust gas pushes against each in vacuum taken as a whole both physical frame and exhaust entity only elongates
communtiy energy systems on Mon, 22nd Jul 2024 10:47 am
well he is at it on the ev thread again…has he lost his mind…people became convinced that evs are the way of the future after previously being skeptical are to be applauded not derided as demented..we have to get off of fossils fuels or we die…
Elite Whitey Supertard President Jay Hanson on Mon, 22nd Jul 2024 2:21 pm
WHY elite whitey supertard President Jay Hanson unalived by Supremacist Muzzies
WHY elite whitey supertard president Elon lies when elite whitey supertard Newton made 1st LAW we have spacecraft and exhaust gas pushes against each in vacuum taken as a whole both physical frame and exhaust entity only elongates
communtiy energy systems on Sun, 28th Jul 2024 11:10 am
i wish theluckycountry knew what he was talking about BUT he doesn’t…he doesn’t understand the future…or he is too stupid to recognize what it is…i am voting for stupid…
WHY elite whitey supertard President Jay Hanson unalived by Supremacist Muzzies on Sun, 28th Jul 2024 11:00 pm
DILATED ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE SHOCK EXTREME BAZZAIRE
WHY elite whitey (((supertard))) president FamousDrScanlon did not MUZZ-19 himself with reckless abandonmnet on Wed, 31st Jul 2024 3:21 pm
WHY elite whitey supertard President Jay Hanson unalived by Supremacist Muzzies
bou's revenge on Wed, 31st Jul 2024 10:17 pm
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WHY elite whitey (((supertard))) president FamousDrScanlon did not MUZZ-19 himself with reckless abandonmnet on Thu, 1st Aug 2024 6:41 pm
ThE scale of elite whitey supertard presidents who MUZZ-19 with reckless abandonment
GOEN TO SAINT PETER IS GRATE
IT’S HUGE
WHY elite whitey (((supertard))) president FamousDrScanlon did not MUZZ-19 himself with reckless abandonmnet on Fri, 2nd Aug 2024 9:37 pm
MUZZ-19 has semen from DROPOUT-19 in it
He mixes it in his basement using empty paint buckets
WHY elite whitey (((supertard))) president FamousDrScanlon did not MUZZ-19 himself with reckless abandonmnet on Sun, 4th Aug 2024 9:05 pm
WHY elite whitey supertard president Elon lies when elite whitey supertard Newton made 1st LAW we have spacecraft and exhaust gas pushes against each in vacuum taken as a whole both physical frame and exhaust entity only elongates
communtiy energy systems on Mon, 5th Aug 2024 11:12 am
this is the last time i try to respond to the electric vehicle thread here until new articles are put up…theluckcountry refuses to acknowledge that the only way for transportation to continue is if its electrified…unless you want to ride horse…i understand not liking elon musk ,,what he has done to twitter is a crime ,,that is not reason not buy evs…
WHY elite whitey (((supertard))) president Stanley Kubrick landed on the moon so easily on Tue, 6th Aug 2024 3:50 pm
Here’s a little agit for the never-believer
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
Here’s a little ghost for the offering
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
Here’s a truck stop instead of Saint Peter’s
WHY elite whitey supertard president Elon lies when elite whitey supertard Newton made 1st LAW we have spacecraft and exhaust gas pushes against each in vacuum taken as a whole both physical frame and exhaust entity only elongates
ALL elite whitey supertard presidents OG who MUZZ-19 themselves with reckless abandonment PROMPTLY WENT TO SAINT PETERS the scale of destruction is HORRIFIC on Tue, 6th Aug 2024 3:51 pm
Here’s a little agit for the never-believer
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
Here’s a little ghost for the offering
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
Here’s a truck stop instead of Saint Peter’s
WHY elite whitey (((supertard))) president Stanley Kubrick landed on the moon so easily on Fri, 9th Aug 2024 4:23 pm
WHY elite whitey supertard president Elon lies when elite whitey supertard Newton made 1st LAW we have spacecraft and exhaust gas pushes against each in vacuum taken as a whole both physical frame and exhaust entity only elongates
WHY elite whitey (((supertard))) president Stanley Kubrick landed on the moon so easily on Sat, 10th Aug 2024 8:51 pm
Here’s a little agit for the never-believer
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
Here’s a little ghost for the offering
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
Here’s a truck stop instead of Saint Peter’s
blue on Fri, 16th Aug 2024 8:43 am
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yellow on Fri, 16th Aug 2024 8:45 am
https://www.moneytain.com/%ec%9a%b0%eb%a6%ac%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89-%eb%8c%80%ed%99%98%eb%8c%80%ec%b6%9c-%ea%b0%88%ec%95%84%ed%83%80%ea%b8%b0%ec%a7%81%ec%9e%a5%ec%9d%b8-%ed%96%87%ec%82%b4%eb%a1%a0-%ec%84%9c%eb%af%bc%ea%b8%88/
https://blue-color.tistory.com/entry/%EA%B3%A8%EB%93%A0%EC%BA%90%ED%94%BC%ED%83%88-%EB%8C%80%EB%B6%80%EB%8C%80%EC%B6%9C-%EC%8B%A0%EC%9A%A9-%EB%B6%80%EB%8F%99%EC%82%B0%EB%8B%B4%EB%B3%B4-%EC%9E%90%EB%8F%99%EC%B0%A8-%EB%8B%B4%EB%B3%B4%EB%8C%80%EC%B6%9C-%EB%8C%80%EC%83%81-%ED%95%9C%EB%8F%84-%EA%B8%88%EB%A6%AC
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 1:50 am
I will tell you the futures. Some of us creators considered sexual reproduction and the creation of female a fail creations that should never be create again.
We will arrange the US election so Kamala win the US presidency. Six or seven months after her election we will collapse the financial system. Our goal is to destroy the concept that femininity is better then masculinity.
We are going to use Harris to humiliate women world wide. We will use Harris to prove that women and sexual reproduction are failed concepts.
We will let the enrage crowd kill her, her Jewish husband and her children. We will do it in a such a way as to send a message that Jewish people are not welcomed in North America.
We will kill Harris is such a way as to send the message that women are a failed creation and should never be created again. We will also send the message that mixed racial procreation is illegal by killing her children.
After that we will kill all the population of earth.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 1:53 am
Never take away the firearms of a man like Canada did to me. Earth could see heavy retaliation from men like me.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 1:54 am
If I am wrong, it means that I am just a loser.
eee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 2:09 am
Some of us have disagreements regarding the creation of sex and female. We will use earth to send really clear messages to the rest the universe.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 9:35 am
Powell will start lowering the rate now. By August we should be in full hyperinflation with shortage of goods. By then the police force and the army will have been disable because of the lack of car mechanic and shortage parts. Haris being the president, she, her Jewish husband and children are going to be kill as describe above. The timing is perfect. Right wings militia will move in and take car of Harris as described above.
eee@ca.ca on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 9:40 am
The shortage of replacements parts for cars is already obvious for whom know where to look. Lowering the rate will accelerate this.
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/honda,2021,accord,1.5l+l4+turbocharged,3447163,engine,turbocharger,5764
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 9:48 am
The Canadian army is already and neutralized as they cannot find enough personal to maintain their mechanical, electronic and electrical equipment. The disabling of the police is also happening as we speak.
https://forces.ca/en/careers
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 10:00 am
I always win, as per Seger song, still the same.
You always won every time you placed a bet
You’re still damn good, no one’s gotten to you yet
Every time they were sure they had you caught
You were quicker than they thought
You’d just turn your back and walk
[Verse 2]
You always said the cards would never do you wrong
The trick, you said, was never play the game too long
A gambler’s share, the only risk that you would take
The only loss you could forsake
The only bluff you couldn’t fake
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0OHtKK8to8
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 10:09 am
Depending how this will go, I will kill everyone that has voted for Canadians fireman law. Nobody takes my firearms away from me.
I will kill everyone in Québec that was involve in the creation of the Québec gun registry.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 10:10 am
A plan is in place and nothing is going to stop what is about to happen.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 10:18 am
Never again a dimensional traveler or a chosen one will be denied personal projection such as Canada did to me with its Canadian firearms laws. I will make sure that the next travelers can get all the protection they deem necessary without having to ask the permission from any entities such as a gouvernent.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 10:22 am
There will also be brutal execution made to make clear that firearms laws are outlaws. Canada will be the center of this.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 10:36 am
The Canadian army is already and neutralized as they cannot find enough personal to maintain their mechanical, electronic and electrical equipment. The disabling of the police is also happening as we speak.
https://forces.ca/en/careers
Notice above when it is time to do heavy manual manuals work the add shows a big man. When it is easy manual work, the adds show skinny women. Everyone knows that right wing men are the ones keeping afloat this civilization.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 10:53 am
If the right wing man are the ones holding this civilization together, it is normale to please them and remove all firearms laws. We hate these kind of laws. I will make of Canada an example for the rest of the world to see regarding firearms laws.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 11:11 am
This is a funny one, if you understand that kind of humour.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuViX9K61-8
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 11:18 am
This is a funny one, if you understand that kind of humour. It could also be seen as a warning toward the EPA. EPA staff might get kill over their attempt to dismantle this civilization without having a intelligent plan how to rebuild it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuViX9K61-8
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 11:30 am
The FDA is currently trying to poisoned ING American people. Things like saw dust, titanium, ammonium and may others ones are not acceptable in beauty products and food. This is basically attempted mass genocide and all the FDA personal should be killed.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 11:53 am
The FDA authorizes Ammonium bicarbonate in food.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ammonium_bicarbonate
Ammonium is one of the most toxic industrial product. Ammonium bicarbonate will break down into molecules of Ammonium and bicarbonate and poison you.
https://www.hsestudyguide.com/?s=ammonia
They really wants you dead
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 11:57 am
Ammonium has no reasons to be in foods and beauty products. This is really an attempt to mass genocide of a big populations.
https://www.hsestudyguide.com/ammonia-safety/
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 12:03 pm
You want to know why a lot of people look sick and skinny. Ask the FDA, they will tell you how they are doing it with ammonium, saw dust, aluminium products in the foods.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 12:18 pm
Let’s talk about the fucking serum doctors are giving you when you to the hospital. The ingredients list is similar to that of Gatorade energy dring you buy at the grocery store. The pump you with sugar directly in your blood stream when you go at the hospital.
What a fucking fraud.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 12:26 pm
How do you like your slavery cage called planet earth.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 12:29 pm
You still think that the United nations is your friend.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 12:30 pm
You still think that the WEF is your friend.
ee on Fri, 23rd Aug 2024 12:34 pm
You are still think that Europe is a good friends of the human race. Nobody was a bigger proponent of women rights then Europe. Europe responsible for the destruction of masculinity. They are proud about that achievement of theirs
You still like the Jews. Still like that fact the feminism was heavily push at the academia level by Jewish women.