It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 1:48 pm
You cannot crash the stock market without crashing the 10 year US treasuries yield to zero. If you try to crash the stock market, you will lower the 10 years US treasuries to zero and with it the mortgage rate to zero, unleashing hyperinflation. You are stuck in a corner without any way out. The main flow of money is taking place now between the stock market the bond market. You are fucked. There is no where else to park all that money because you printed too much of it.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 1:58 pm
You are so fucked, see above. I am here to see the population of earth die, and I will get my wish. Never take away the handguns of a man.
It is time for a civil war. Let’s finish North America for good and for ever.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 2:04 pm
Watch the movie civil war 24. US is a state of hyperinflation. Go read my comment above, you will understand why the civil war starts with hyperinflations. You printed too much money now, there is no where to park all this money except in the stock market and US treasuries. The main flow of money is between both of them. You are so fucked.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBCIJ3QluHY
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 2:21 pm
You took my handguns away from me. Revenge is coming. We are going to take North American and descend it into a hell hole you would not believe could exist. All you will ever see until you die are cadavers and bloods.
All of this because of Canada restrictives handguns laws, what a shame.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 2:45 pm
I will finally have your cadavers for my personal entertainment. You are fucking fucked, I told you that we won a long time ago.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 2:48 pm
You understand that we don’t need to attach the electrical power generation station. We are just going to shutdown the main electrical lines. So many places in Northern Québec where you can do that undetected. You can protect your electrical power station but you cannot protect your powere lines.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 2:57 pm
Depending the quality of man you will find in during the civil, the first that will go away forever is the electrical grid. The movie civil war 2024 is not accurate in this regard. But this is BS Hollywood.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 3:52 pm
I am much more calm lately. I don’t what they did to me but I welcome it. As soon as possible I want you all dead or a civil war to torture you before execution. All go fuck yourself. Never take away the handguns of a man. Fucking communist. All of this because of canada restrictives handguns. All this could have been avoided if you were fucking communits.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 3:54 pm
I am much more calm lately. I don’t know what they did to me but I welcome it. As soon as possible I want you all dead or in a civil war to torture you before execution. You can all go fuck yourself. Never take away the handguns of a man. Fucking communist. All of this because of canada restrictives handguns laws. All this could have been avoided if you were not fucking communists, mentally retarded ans cowards.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 4:56 pm
They did something to me and rebalance me. I don’T care about Blinken, Israel and the Jews. They did something to me. I think I will detach emotionally about what is happening on planet earth. So happy about this. Go fuck yourself
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 5:12 pm
You all look like 2D cardboard cut out with no depth or 3 dimensional. Fucking losers, you are not fooling me anymore.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 5:21 pm
Around red digital LED, I see your four projection holographic that you use to create an object. I see the 4 holographic projections around the top square. I know there is an energy interface that convert holographic projections
into solid objects
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rT2YqhSARc
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 5:25 pm
I am just missing the mathematical functions to convert the mathematical outputs of earth calculator into solid object. I have an overall idea how earth is run. You can go fuck yourself.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 5:46 pm
I am missing the design document for mathematical interface and a mental connection to earth calculators and interfaces. Once I get these connections, I will arrange you a nice fucking North America civil war with a lot of bloods and gore.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 6:21 pm
As soon as I can, I kill all the Jews and float their head 22 feet up in the air for eternity after that I décapite all the politicians of the world and put their heads on a stick in front of their houses. Same with the police force that I am going to kill with a stick up their asshole. You see where I am going. I will give a real civil war as you have never seen, why, because I can.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 6:34 pm
IF they lower the rate, you will know we are in process of starting a civil war.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 6:39 pm
We will lower the rate to start hyperinflation and shortage of goods. People will demand that you fix the situation and then you will be forced to raise rate to a level of 10% to 20% to show that are serious about fighting inflation. And then you will be locked in a cage and people will see that you are just con artists, then the revolution will start.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 6:49 pm
Aslow-motion collapse in the offshore wind industry continues to grow as sticky inflation and supply chain challenges force developers to delay or cancel major pro
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-renewable-green-energy-disaster-off-the-northeastern-us-is-getting-worse/ar-BB1nxpVO
You already have a very weak supply chain where shortages can start at anytime. We will accelerate the shortage of goods by lowering rate. See comments above. Combined with Trump judicial saga, we will use this as a launch platform to start a civil war withing North America.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 7:19 pm
If you lower the rate just by 0.25% you will have to go down all the way to 2%. Otherwise you look incompetent if you change you mind and raise back by 0.25% As soon as you lower the rate, you are looking yourself in a downward path and eventually hyperinflation. What are you going to do fucking losers.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 8:28 pm
I care less and less about earth and its population. I just want to see you dead.
I knew some wrong when a pretty little white girl ran to a black man arms dead giveaway deadddddddddddddddddddddddddddd giveaway on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 12:21 am
im a truth teller and a tard and fmr-paultard
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 9:16 am
Civil war is coming into Canada and the US. I will get your fucking cadavers.
As widely expected after significant dovish commentary in recent months, moments ago the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps from 5.00% to 4.75% as a majority of economists expected, and signaled that it is “reasonable to expect further cuts” if inflation eases.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-canada-cuts-rates-25bps-expected-first-g7-central-bank-launch-easing-cycle
Tu es deja mort ma criss de chienne a legault
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 9:27 am
We are setting up the stage to make sure that politicians will be killed by an enraged population including their whole family.
We will lock North America into an hyperinflation scenario where you will not be able to get out. You will have to back track and raise rate to 10% so you look like you trying to do something. Bloods in the street is coming, add Trump judicial problems with that.
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 9:42 am
You want to play theater. We will give you good theater. You want bloods, we will give you bloods as far as the eyes can see. We will give what you want to most, chaos and destruction in a scale you cannot just imagine now.
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 9:45 am
We own these two puppets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oa0KX53lVyc
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 9:51 am
These two puppets will be killed by an enraged mob once hyperinflation started. This will not be your regular hyperinflation. You will have hyperinflation with supply chain shutdown, shortage of goods, and enable to get anything repair such as cars and trucks. This is the grand final of North America.
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 10:21 am
Canada and the US will not be rebuilt because there is not enough Whites people to do it. Asians will go back to Asia. You will be left with only the losers in North America. That is the end of Canada and US.
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 10:28 am
If you are White and can immigrant to South East Asian, you should do it now.
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 10:50 am
WestJet announces new fare without free carry-on bag
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zaJcRA9zWxc
This is a sign of high inflation. We are lowering the rates because we want a civil war.
Look both of them, they look dead inside. They are programmable meat puppet. They are meat puppets that belong to us. We are starting a civil war inside North America,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oa0KX53lVyc
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 10:59 am
I told you we can create meat puppet. We are going to create meat puppet soldier and program them with a civil war program. We will create the ammo if we have too. I will give you what you want, chaos, dead, bloods and destruction in scale you cannot imagine.
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 11:04 am
I am shooting for the total destruction of North American including the total and permanent shutdown of the electrical grid of North America.
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 12:35 pm
Never take away the handguns of a man .
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 12:37 pm
You denied me personal protection using an handguns, I will kill the whole population of earth just for that.
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 4:37 pm
You taka aways my handguns you die. You lie to me, we will never work together and I might kill you if I can
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 4:40 pm
I am not your friends and I will not be your savior. I want to see you (all earth population) die.
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 4:46 pm
As soon as as I get access to earth calculator, the energy fields and mathematical protocol to transform energy into matter, I kill the whole population of earth.
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 4:57 pm
I never forgive. I go to the end of my hatred, and destroy who did me wrong if I am capable. This is how I move forward. Forgiveness is for loser.
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 5:16 pm
I will use my hatred for planet earth and my hatred for the population of planet earth as a launch pad to boost my creativity in the next creation cycle. What I hate will be removed in the next cycle. I will go to the end of my hatred as per revelation 19.
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 5:18 pm
I have an immense hatred for women and sexual reproduction. This will never be included in the next cycle if I can.
dd on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 5:21 pm
The verbal language will be eliminated and a new language will be made to exchange ideas, theorical scientific concept without the use of words. Emotions will be removed out of the equation because sexual reproduction will disappears.
dd on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 5:23 pm
We will go to end of my hatred and kill everyone on planet earth. Your death will be my launch pad for the futur.
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 5:49 pm
BREAKING NEWS: Good News For Trump—Georgia Appeals Court Pauses Election Interference Case
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfs27i2kD5s
We don’t need Trump to start a civil, but it was helping us speeding things. Hyperinflation and supply chain collapse would do the job any way. You supply chain is so fragile now, it can collapse at any moment.
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 6:01 pm
Watch the 10 years US treasuries yield. you will know how serious we are about a civil war and shutting down North America electrical grid forever.
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 6:15 pm
By lowering the 10 years US treasuries rate, we are forcing the BOC to continue lowering their rate otherwise they will look like imbecile. Really bad idea this rate cut, we will force you to continue to lower interest rate to a low level. Canada is locked into a civil war situation.
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 6:27 pm
It is not a planet per say, fucktards. It a mathematical reality. You are trying to save mathematical equations.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HONoQDxWcm0
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 6:43 pm
Once the civil start on North America soil. you will understand how dedicated I am toward to the genocide of the whole earth population. Then you will understand that I will go to the end of my hatred: the death of everyone on earth.
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 6:46 pm
Never take away the handguns of a man. This video was made 4 hours. Who said I cannot get help from heaven. Where is you handgun joe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ypkw70Pptc
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 6:49 pm
It’s bright in the heavens and the wheels are flying
Fame and honor never seem to fade
The fire’s gone out but the light is never dying
Who says I can’t get heavenly aid?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3wISftyEAE
As I walked out tonight in the mystic garden
The wounded flowers were dangling from the vines
I was passing by yon cool and crystal fountain
Someone hit me from behind
Ain’t talkin’, just walkin’
Through this weary world of woe
Heart burnin’, still yearnin’
No one on earth would ever know
They say prayer has the power to help
So pray for me mother
In the human heart an evil spirit can dwell
I’m trying to love my neighbor and do good unto others
But oh, mother, things ain’t going well
Ain’t talkin’, just walkin’
I’ll burn that bridge before you can cross
Heart burnin’, still yearnin’
They’ll be no mercy for you once you’ve lost
Now I’m all worn down by weepin’
My eyes are filled with tears, my lips are dry
If I catch my opponents ever sleepin’
I’ll just slaughter them where they lie
Ain’t talkin’, just walkin’
Through a world mysterious and vague
Hearrt burnin’, still yearnin’
Walking through the cities of the plague
The whole world is filled with speculation
The whole wide world which people say is round
They will tear your mind away from contemplation
They will jump on your misfortune when you’re down
Ain’t talkin’, just walkin’
Eatin’ hog-eyed grease in hog-eyed town
Heart burnin’, still yearnin’
Someday you’ll be glad to have me around
They will crush you with wealth and power
Every waking moment you could crack
I’ll make the most of one last extra hour
I’ll avenge my father’s death then I’ll step back
Ain’t talkin’, just walkin’
Hand me down my walkin’ cane
Heart burnin’, still yearnin’
Got to get you out of my miserable brain
It’s bright in the heavens and the wheels are flying
Fame and honor never seem to fade
The fire’s gone out but the light is never dying
Who says I can’t get heavenly aid?
Ain’t talkin’, just walkin’
Carrying a dead man’s shield
Heart burnin’, still yearnin’
Walkin’ with a toothache in my heel
The suffering is unending
Every nook and cranny has its tears
I’m not playing, I’m not pretending
I’m not nursing any superfluous fears
Ain’t talkin’, just walkin’
Walkin’ ever since the other night
Heart burnin’, still yearnin’
Walkin’ ’til I’m clean out of sight
As I walked out in the mystic garden
On a hot summer day, hot summer lawn
Excuse me, ma’am, I beg your pardon
There’s no one here, the gardener is gone
Ain’t talkin’, just walkin’
Up the road around the bend
Heart burnin’, still yearnin’
In the last outback, at the world’s end
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 7:04 pm
We will go to the end of my hatred and kill all the earth populations.
ee on Wed, 5th Jun 2024 8:31 pm
I think some of you are misreading me. I mean it when I am saying I deeply hate women. I mean it when I am saying I want to see the population of earth dead. I mean it when I am saying I want you dead because of Canadian restrictives handguns laws. I mean it when I am saying I am not your friends. I am just using earth as personal entertainment. I am mean when I saying I will kill you for lying to me and ruining my life.
Don’t misread me, I want to see suffer and die.