It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 4:26 pm
They/she did that often to me: writing messages directly on my YouTube page. If we want a civil there will be a civil war and Legault will be killed by decapitation if we want to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TN6-ilfdmXI
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 4:26 pm
See 3:06 about the written message.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TN6-ilfdmXI
Duncan Idaho on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 6:22 pm
WHY elite whitey supertard president GRETA associates herself with supremacist muzzies i am doubtful her global warming spheres is for the enjoyment of elite whitey supertard presidents THEY are for SUPREMACIST MUZZIES prove me wrong
im just a tard and fmr-paultard
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 6:51 pm
For the modern man the role of the color is important 20:30 lot of info in this video. They are talking how important wood and steel are 21:00. They are telling you that they have psychological studies that correlate colors and emotions. They know what color generate with kind of emotions. If the want to lower aggressiveness, they know which color will do that. See Chinese cities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4H_4cv-2wA0
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 7:14 pm
Now you understand when I am saying that they gave up on implementing there communist utopia in North America. They probably did not like the Québec referendum and saw Québec as an obstacle to create an homogenous North America. They moved to China instead.
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 7:21 pm
make no mistake, if we want a civil war in the US will create one as explained above.
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 8:42 pm
You see her legs at 16:06. This was the beginning of the hypersexualisation of planet earth. Go watch Pattaya videos, you will see what I mean. A lot happen during expo 67 for people that know how to analyzed this event.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4H_4cv-2wA0
Autre anecdote, les hôtesses de plusieurs pays faisaient raccourcir leurs jupes, la mini-jupe étant en vogue.
https://audreylacroix.ca/2017/07/23/mode-expo-au-musee-mccord/
Pattaya
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6V_8NHArbU
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 8:54 pm
I think the hypersexualisation of the planet has began with Europe and its fashion industry. I really don’t like Europe. There is nothing beautiful about Europe, it is bunch power hungry communists and sexual perverts.
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 8:57 pm
That kind of sexual crap is mostly coming from Europe. This is fashion industry of Europe. You cannot own a handgun in Europe but you are free to be a sexual pervert in Europe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp-ahnL7Plw
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 8:59 pm
It does matter. We are going to kill everyone on planet earth and move to something else.
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 8:59 pm
It does not matter. We are going to kill everyone on planet earth and move to something else.
eed on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 10:02 pm
I don’t expect a civil war inside the US. You tried to start one with J6 insurectin and it did not work. Everything you try to start a civil war did not work. Whites people are not going to die to save your shit nations (Canada/US0 and kill the invaders for you.
If you want a civil war, created fake soldiers and run by yourself.
I watch a little bit here and there of the Civil war 2024. Not going to happen like that. Another bullshit from Hollywood.
https://bflixhd.to/movie/watch-free-civil-war-39959/1-1
Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 10:02 pm
WHY elite whitey supertard president GRETA associates herself with supremacist muzzies i am doubtful her global warming spheres is for the enjoyment of elite whitey supertard presidents THEY are for SUPREMACIST MUZZIES prove me wrong
im just a tard and fmr-paultard
MUZZ-19 caused TOTAL DEVASTATION of elite supertard presidents the creme of teh crop is gone civilizaton will collapse fertilily of all elite whitey supertard presidents is MUZZ-19 with vag bleeding on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 10:04 pm
TOTAL DEVASTATION
im just a tard and fmr-paultard
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 10:12 pm
Putting Trump in the White House, will not start a civil war also. You lost the West and it is not coming back. If you want to kill the invaders, do it yourself and leave Whites and Blacks out of it.
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 10:25 pm
“Cleaner shipping fuel is contributing to ocean warming, scientists say”
https://www.reuters.com/business/enviro … 024-05-31/
Shipping fuel regulations introduced in 2020 have led to a substantial cut in sulphur dioxide (SO2) pollution, but may also have made the ocean warmer by reducing cloud cover, according to a modelling study in a paper published late on Thursday.
Same story as the Uranium for nuclear energy. Instead of telling the truth, they came up with Three Mile Islands story to shutdown the nuclear industry because earth had depleted all the easy extractable Uranium. They really did a good show with Three Mile Island, even my father was scared and watch the news networks as it was going on.
Same story with the Maritime containers shipping. They are running of oil and need to shutdown maritime containers shipping. They never tell the truth. They need a cover story to cover the truth.
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 10:48 pm
This is probably the real reason of the collision between a maritime container ship and the Baltimore bridge. Maritime containers shipping and globalism consume too much oil. It needs to be shutdown or slow down. Remember they never tell the truth about anything. They need some kind of cover story to slowdown maritime container shipping. Same reason with all these airplanes mechanical failures.
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 10:49 pm
Here is the real link:
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/cleaner-shipping-fuel-is-contributing-ocean-warming-scientists-say-2024-05-31/
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 9:57 am
Show me one instance when the principle of conservation of mass failed. Show me one instance where a chemical reaction failed because the principle of conservation of mass failed. You cannot therefore natural resources depletion will happen and I will collect your cadavers as planned.
You took away my right to self protection with a handguns, I will kill all the population of planet earth for that.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 10:00 am
Before killing all the population of earth, are we going to start civil wars in some nations ?
It is a good question.
Are we going to create fake soldiers and add them to flesh beings database and program them with the civil war software.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 10:01 am
COLDEST MAY LOWS IN 70-YEARS HIT WANGARATTA, AUSTRALIA; ARGENTINA COLD; ALMOST 7-FEET OF JUNE SNOW TRAPS HIKERS IN GERMAN ALPS; SNOW SET FOR SCOTLAND; + ARCTIC SEA ICE TRACKING 30-YEAR AVERAGE
Before killing all the population of earth, are we going to start civil wars in some nations ?
It is a good question.
Are we going to create fake soldiers and add them to flesh beings database and program them with the civil war software.
ww on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 10:03 am
You took away my handguns, you die.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 10:08 am
Maybe there is no inner earth. Maybe we are creating fake immigrants to accelerate earth natural ressources depletion because we have schedule to respect.
Maybe we will create fake soldiers to create a civil war inside North America. You won’t believe how real it will look like from your point of view. The blood and the pain will seems real from your point of view.
You took away my handguns, I will kill all of you for that.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 10:14 am
We are going to turn Canada and the US into a land of blood and flesh. I dare to fuck me ever again. I will dare to take away my handguns again in another reality.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 10:16 am
I dare you to fuck with me again.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 10:40 am
I watch a little bit here and there of the Civil war 2024. Not going to happen like that. Another bullshit movie from Hollywood. Electrical grid will be shutdown and so is the water distribution system. You will be encircled and attacked from above during the day. During the night you will be helpless because of the lack of electricity and lighting, you will not be able to move or do anything during the night. Psychological distress will start to settle an you will fight each other. After a month you are all dead. Still think it was a good idea to disarm people.
https://bflixhd.to/movie/watch-free-civil-war-39959/1-1
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 11:02 am
I am not your friend and I will not be your savior. You took my handguns you will all die. The civil war thing is just a form of entertainment for us and torture for you.
You took away my personal protection in the form of an handgun, you will all die for that. Are we going to torture you before your final death is the question?
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 11:21 am
You understand that Trump is a fake meat puppet we control. Just look at his hair cut. Understand and that there is no real war between Israel and Palestine and it just fake theater.
I can promise you, that we can create a civil war on US/Canada soils and it will look and feel real from you point of view.
Never take away the handguns of a man. He will kill you and torture for that.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 11:41 am
You remember the Three Mile Island incident and how much it looks real and scary on tv news.
What about a civil war on US/Canada soil that look real and scary with real and permanent destruction of the infrastructures. I dare you to fuck with us.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 2:08 pm
If you don’t remove the firearms laws, you are inviting us to attack your cities and slaughter the people living in the cities. You will have no choice and you will have to remove all firearms laws to complicate and make more difficult an military attack on your big cities.
What are you going to do with your firearms laws.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 2:15 pm
If you remove all the firearms and handguns laws, it will make it a more complicated and more deadly military operation for us if we decide to attack your big cities. What are you going to do now.
We will suffer more casualties and death of the population of your big cities are armed.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 2:19 pm
You want to play chess it is your call.
what are you going to do with yours handguns and firearms laws ?
Are you going to let us slaughtering you because you are unarmed.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 2:38 pm
You know that police force will not stay inside the cities to protect the cities. They will come and join us to save their lives. Police forces will come and join up our army and will participate at your slaughter.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 2:40 pm
What are you going to do with the actual firearms laws?
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 2:54 pm
You are not as intelligent as you think you are.
You will be defeated on way or another.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 4:56 pm
I want to repeat that. I am not your friend and I will not be your savior. I am here to see earth population die. You took away my handguns you die.
Davy on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 5:27 pm
WHY elite whitey supertard president Elon lies when elite whitey supertard president Newton made 1st LAW we have spacecraft and exhaust gas pushes against each in vacuum taken as a whole both physical frame and exhaust entity only elongates
im just a tard and fmr-paultard
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 5:43 pm
You put my life in danger by denying me personal protection with an handgun, you die. All the population of planet earth will die for this insult.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 5:44 pm
How you will die, is up to debate. Are we going to start a civil war in the US/Canada as a form of execution and torture, this has not been decided yet.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 5:58 pm
It is possible that we will use the court case against Trump as a platform to start a civil war in the US. And then we will use the US civil war as a platform to start a civil war into Canada. Then I will walk over your cadavers as per revelation 19.
All of this because of Canada handguns laws.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 6:07 pm
If we need to, we will create fake soldiers that we will add to the flesh beings database. We will create mathematical bullets that we will add the to parametric database of earth, section military bases. We will fill up the militaries bases with bullets by adding a entries into the solide database objects of earth. I will make this sweet and nice for you with a lot of pain and bloods.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 7:24 pm
Women control men on earth through the concept of love, children, alimony and the divorce courts. Love songs are created to push men into the falling in love with women. Once a man is married he has lost his freedom and he is the slave of the state and a slave of women using the government and police has enforcer. This is one way they force man to do keep hard manual labor need to keep this civilization alive.
This will backfire on them or has already backfire on them because man stopped dating women. This backlash could be immense and bring the civilisation down. Basically young man playing video games in their parent basement is a form a retaliation against this form of enslavements.
As I said, I am here to walk over earth’s cadavers and there is nothing you can do against that
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xA0Vl0gre6U
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 7:27 pm
You have already lost the war against us, we have already win the war. I am waiting for your cadavers so I can enjoy deeply my success.
Never take away the handguns of a man.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 7:33 pm
You have already lost the West and it will never be rebuilt. Read me comments above. I have won against you for taking away my handguns.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 7:36 pm
Earth’s cadavers belong to me. I have won.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 7:41 pm
A civil war will only happen if we create false soldiers. The real human will not die to keep this civilization alive. The real human male will not fight a civil war. We know how much this civilization sees us as disposable tools. This period is over.
You lost and we won.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 7:44 pm
The war on warriors. We know the truth. You are trying to manipulate us into becoming your slaves, so we go die to save your shit civilization. Not time. Fight your own battles and leave us out of it..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3V1YSFVgsyA
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 8:02 pm
Basically, women are parasites and they should not live with us on earth. This is why women will never leave earth and will all die here. I have already written about that.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 8:07 pm
We have already won the war. Are we going to start a civil war to torture you more?
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 8:34 pm
It is possible that the real reason for the hypersexualisation of women was because they were losing control of the male slave as more and more were choosing a single life. That could be on of the reason.