It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Fri, 31st May 2024 10:48 pm
They forced you to build complex equipment that required a lot of technical staff. It is unlikely that you will be able to staff all this tools, unlike a cheap helicopters that is easier to maintain and need less staff to get up in the air. They remove the lethality of your weapon by forcing you to staff them with technical staff that would be extremely difficult to do in a real war situation.
ee on Fri, 31st May 2024 10:52 pm
They are basically dismantling your army by forcing you to invest money in an highly technical equipment that has no real lethality, unlike the A10, small pickup truck with machine guns and small helicopters.
They want to make sure you cannot use the army against them.
ee on Fri, 31st May 2024 10:53 pm
New they are pushing this fake AI stuff on you for the same reasons.
ee on Fri, 31st May 2024 11:07 pm
A big city can be easily destroyed by simply blocking the highways leading to it or leaving it. Once you block the main highways, you cut the electricity and you send the small helicopters and pickup truck to control the perimeter. You might need to protect your rear flank, but I don’t see that as a problem. I doubt people will be courageous enough to attack you by the rear flank. They disarmed the population, how are they going attack you by the rear flank.
ee on Fri, 31st May 2024 11:11 pm
You must block the water sewage pipes leading out of the cities. Some are big enough that people could walk in them to escape the city.
I think it is that easy. No need to use complicated technical weapons requiring a lot of staff to operate and maintain.
ee on Fri, 31st May 2024 11:14 pm
If you can have some kind of small bomber to bomb the city, that would be cool. Nothing too big. You bomb them just to let them know that you are serious. You send some small helicopters inside the city to kill people just to show them that you are serious. I think that about it.
ee on Fri, 31st May 2024 11:29 pm
If you attack the coastal cities, you could use an aircraft carrier as a platform to refill and rearms your small helicopters. What are they going to do against you.
ee on Fri, 31st May 2024 11:33 pm
Do you understand how lethal are these small helicopters against an unarmed population. 2:06 in the video. I an not the one that has disarms the population of earth with restrictive firearms laws, it is them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kOuljFdYRg
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 12:03 am
With a disarmed population you can hire anyone give him a automatic rifle, sit him in the box of pick up truck and ask him to shoot anyone that wants to leave the city.
I am against laws on handguns and firearms ownership. I am not the one that has disarmed the population of earth, it is them. It is nice when karma comes back at you and kill you.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 1:16 am
Fucking communists. These cock suckers are everywhere. This first you meet a person of color at 0:30.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaKb3qVL9k8
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 1:29 am
Fucking communists. Compare expo 67 flag:
https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=expo+67+flag&form=HDRSC3&first=1
with European flag:
https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=european+flag&form=HDRSC3&first=1
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 1:33 am
They used expo 67 to push diversity and multiculturalism way before the mass migration project started by Mulroney.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaKb3qVL9k8
Fucking communists. Compare expo 67 flag:
https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=expo+67+flag&form=HDRSC3&first=1
with European flag:
https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=european+flag&form=HDRSC3&first=1
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 1:38 am
I don’t like to give personal information about myself but I was born in 1967.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 2:00 am
The 1967 International and Universal Exposition, commonly known as Expo 67, was a general exhibition from April 28 to October 29, 1967
I was born one day before the end of the expo in 28 october 1967
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expo_67
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 2:04 am
I was born one day before the end of expo 67. Am I here to end the planet earth.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 2:11 am
Expo 67 featured 90 pavilions representing Man and His World themes, nations, corporations, and industries including the U.S. pavilion, a geodesic dome designed by Buckminster Fuller. Many pavilions had innovative presentations, almost all using film in one way or another, or, as a commentator said: “film was everywhere, unreeling at a furious rate. Expo was a fair of film.”[60]
I am here to tell you that you lost the day you started your communist project. As I said, the day you came down on earth is the day that you lost war and it is the day we won war.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 2:14 am
The 1967 International and Universal Exposition, commonly known as Expo 67, was a general exhibition from April 28 to October 29, 1967
I was born the 28 of October 1967, the expost started on 28 of april 1967.
You lost, we won the war.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 2:17 am
We won the war, you lost the war
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 2:33 am
28 comes before 29. The expo67 ended on the 29 of October 1967.
I was born one before the end of expo67. 28 of October is beginning of the end for your earth communist project.
As I have said many times, we have already won the war. 28 of October 1967 was the beginning of the end that happen in 29 of October 1967 for expo67.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 2:37 am
28 of October was the beginning of the end for your communists project. Most likely revelation 19 will happen. After revelation 19, the chosen people will start a new life on a new earth or in a new reality. WOW.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 2:38 am
I am the chosen one, most likely. You are the losers as I said many time over. Never put any laws on the ownership of handguns and firearms.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 2:45 am
Fucking communists.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 2:50 am
The Jews were never the chosen people, they are just deceivers.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 2:53 am
It is real freedom or nothing. Earth choose slavery, we will destroy you.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 2:57 am
il y a 4 heures
(Modifié)
remove
The first part of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms is the reasonable limits clause
All of the Rights guaranteed in the Charter are subject to these Ill defined reasonable limits
Which is to say , Canadians have no rights at all
never put any law on the ownership of handguns and firearms. You have chosen slavery, you will be destoryed.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 3:01 am
Canadians have no rights at all.
All of the Rights guaranteed in the Charter are subject to these Ill defined reasonable limits
Which is to say , Canadians have no rights at all
never put any law on the ownership of handguns and firearms. You have chosen slavery, you will be destorye
ee3 on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 3:06 am
One question, is when earth was created. Earth was created the 28 of October 1967. There were no past, only fake historical events.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 3:18 am
Look at her ears at 1:03.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRB3NSRkoBk
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 3:25 am
You came down on planet earth to install communism. The date does not matter much. At the most earth is 500 year old or it could be younger the that.
Pretty obvious that expo67 was a big communist event made to install diversity, inclusion and multiculturalism.
You fucking lost.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 3:27 am
This is what you look like in real life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjG-lol_RDU
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 4:21 am
Notice how they use big historical events such as expo67 to introduce new technologies. Look back at the video when they are talking about the first automated train system. They introduce new tech during WW1 and WW2 and expo67. We did not invent anything, it was a tech transfert.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaKb3qVL9k8
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 4:26 am
Notice that they built an island where there were none before. What else is fake on earth and has been built by them.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 4:46 am
Notice they created a fake passport during expo67. If was a way for them to push globalism forward.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 4:48 am
Notice how they are saying that the transportation by train and monorail was free. They were already pushing C40 cities public transportation concepts.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 11:53 am
Expo67 was built around urbanization concepts similar to that of C40 cities. Notice the transportation system that is C40 cities like.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h08R2NcGKvA
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 11:56 am
Notice the housing complex that is C40 cities concepts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h08R2NcGKvA
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 12:02 pm
Russian installing nuclear weapons on Cuba and then the communists expo67. The same message again, if we work together we can avoid war. Expo67 was a gathering of nations that embrasse diversity as a way to create long lasting peace.
WW2 lead to the creation of United nations using the same thought process.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h08R2NcGKvA
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 12:10 pm
On June 26, 1945, delegates from 50 countries signed the charter of the United Nations in San Francisco, creating an international government tasked with maintaining peace around the world in the wake of World War II.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnQESSTouNU
They repeated the same scenario but at smaller scale. The threat of war followed by and expo67 that was promoting world wide cooperation.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 12:15 pm
They made a big mistake by creating restrictive firearm laws and packing a lot of people into a small area (C40 cities). These big cities are defenseless because of firearm laws. We are they going to do, if we attack them.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 12:20 pm
Never take away the firearms of a man. Now they are defenseless in their big cities against an attack. This could be worst mistake they ever did.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 12:26 pm
Never take away the firearms of a man. Now they are defenseless in their big cities against an attack. This could be worst mistake they ever did.
You don’t need a sophisticated army to attack a city where the population is defenseless. You could just hire mercenaries to drive your pick truck and shoot at them with automatic rifle.
A simple steel boxy in the back of a pick truck would do the job, since they are unarmed. In fact, you could just sit a guy there in pick truck box without any protection, earth has been disarmed by them.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 12:29 pm
This is C40 habitation concepts right there from expo 67.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wdemf-VcDVk
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 12:33 pm
You don’t need a sophisticated army to attack a city where the population is defenseless. You could just hire mercenaries to drive your pick truck and shoot at them with automatic rifle.
You could hire any kind of mercenaries. They don’t need to be in good physical shape to sit in a pickup truck box and shoot at unarmed people. You can hire almost anyone for this job as long as they can walk on two feet. You don’t need to train them either, they are defenseless.
Never take away the firearms of a man. Now they are defenseless in their big cities against an attack. This could be worst mistake they ever did.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 12:39 pm
The reason they created the music and movies industries is to distract people that will live in their smart cities. It is to control the aggressiveness of people living in C40 cities. Same purpose as the red district such as Pattaya.
Big cities are really fragile socially. See Judge Dreed movies.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 1:12 pm
My moms started to do oil painting during her retirement years at around 66 year old. She took a couple of courses and she was good at it. Never understood why. Now I might get it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQEHXvxFPnk
I told you, I was prepared for this moment during my whole life. I told you, I am not like you.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 1:14 pm
I told you, I am like you.I am a traveler of both time and space to be where I have been.
——————————————-
Oh, let the sun beat down upon my face, with stars to fill my dream.
I am a traveler of both time and space to be where I have been.
To sit with elders of a gentle race this world has seldom seen.
Who talk of days for which they sit and wait
When all will be revealed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_6M254L0XU
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 1:17 pm
How do you think I got all this military knowledge. because: I am a traveler of both time and space to be where I have been.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 1:27 pm
Oh, when I’m on, when I’m on my way, yeah
When I see, when I see the way you stay, yeah-eah
—————————————
This implied that I will leave earth and you stay here on earth and die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_6M254L0XU
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 1:36 pm
To know so much about the mathematical algorithms on which earth is built, could let me suppose that I am from the highest domains of the creation, where we create realities. You are just fucking losers to me.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 2:07 pm
Oh, all I see turns to brown
As the sun burns the ground.
Pyramids & Ancient Architecture of Egypt – 4K Travel Film – World’s Best Destinations
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_bKqM0_ZMo
——————————————–
What are the color of some of them, brown, gray.
This means we will put a new the energy field on earth. That will be the equivalent of burning everything into ground
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_6M254L0XU