It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 2:11 pm
Fucking low IQ cock suckers.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 2:39 pm
It is not the first time we destroyed civilisation and kill almost all the earth population.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8Ejf5etV5U
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 2:53 pm
This is fucking interesting. They were promoting nuclear energy as a reliable source of energy. Then I guess we ran of easily extractable Uranium and instead of telling the truth, they came up with the three mill island incident.
6:42 praising nuclear energy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MicSGPcmnqw
Three Mile Island, Nuclear Power Plant Accident: March 28, 1979
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGI7VymjSho
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 3:55 pm
The Whites are too rebellious compare to Asians people. There were not able to build communist utopia they wanted in North America and Europe. After seeing that exp0 67 did not work as a means to install communism. They moved toward China and install communism and their C40 cities concepts there.
I think that is what happen. The Whites Quebecers are really red necks deep inside a and are difficult to control. Notice that some people did not like the communist flag of expo 67. They moved toward China to build their communist utopia.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 4:05 pm
One time a guy told me: he is from Belgium, they are more sophisticated then us. He was saying that we are red necks. I am guessing that it is the same thing for the English part of Canada.
Deep at heart, the White Quebecers is red neck and he loves it and embraces it.
They moved to China to built their communist utopia. This is probably why they put restrictives firearms laws on Canadians.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 4:07 pm
This is China. The perfect communist utopia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hY3a2h-ktnk
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 4:11 pm
My father and mother went to expo 67. My mother said there were too many people. My father was not impressed about it and never talk about it as being a big accomplishment.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 4:15 pm
I told you the real communists are the Europeans,,the Jews and Asians.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 4:21 pm
Notice the passport of expo 67. It was done on purpose to promote globalism and multiculturalism.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 4:33 pm
I like that, they start the video with the communist symbol of expo 67.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6KBHXQyeOk
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 4:49 pm
To do this kind of project in 4 years, means they already had the engineering calculations and designed done in advance. They never talked about who did the engineering designed of it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ia79uJghp3U
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 6:18 pm
I told you. Whites Quebecers ans Anglo Canadians are rednecks.
Le choix du logo d’Expo 67, qui appartient maintenant au patrimoine de Montréal et du Canada, a été une véritable saga, marquée par un bras de fer entre la Compagnie canadienne de l’Exposition universelle de 1967 et le Parlement.
https://ville.montreal.qc.ca/memoiresdesmontrealais/expo-67-un-logo-controverse
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 6:22 pm
Le Canada sera tourné en ridicule. Rien n’y représente le Canada, indirectement ou autrement. L’honorable représentant pourrait-il nous relire la description des cauchemars qui ont hanté l’artiste pendant qu’il accouchait de cette chose, car ce n’était pas facile à suivre. […] Le Canada va être représenté, nous dit-on, par un emblème contraire à tous les principes de la nation canadienne. […] J’affirme que nous devons rejeter ce symbole. »
https://ville.montreal.qc.ca/memoiresdesmontrealais/expo-67-un-logo-controverse
—————————————-
Rien n’y représente le Canada, indirectement ou autrement.
I told you it was a communists globalist flag.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 6:25 pm
I told you. The European flag is a neutral flag that represent globalism and communism.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 6:48 pm
France are communist and go fuck themself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKyLZcWoIzw
Look the France is trying to destory you from the inside
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 7:15 pm
Look at 2:08 how many surveillance cameras they have. It is a communist utopia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJNxfKPXH7g
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 7:17 pm
Sorry these are not camera. They are light point toward the building. Do you see that much lighting in other cities around the world. 2:08
It is a perfect C40 cities with all these lights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJNxfKPXH7g
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 7:25 pm
This is part of managing a C40 city. You have to manage people emotions so it never reach the state of violence that would destroy the city. Remember you have no where to go and you cannot rebuild if you city failed because you have no natural resource left. It is an impossible task. See Judge Dredd movies.
This is why they pushed the dialog. To manage emotions and stop aggressiveness.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 8:03 pm
I still think they made a big mistake with the restrictives firearms laws. It does not take a lot of complex military planning when you can lock up a defenseless population in a city and shoot at them if they want to leave.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 9:06 pm
They tried to install communism in North America but it failed. They instead moved into installing communism in China and abandon North America. This might be the best thing that ever happen to us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fl7lOundk4Y
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 9:10 pm
Parizeau scare the shit out of them. Maybe after that they decided to give up on North America as a communist agenda.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fl7lOundk4Y
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 9:11 pm
Chretien lost and Parizeau won. Parizeau was able to push away the communists out of North America.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fl7lOundk4Y
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 9:17 pm
Without Parizeau, they would have most likely turned North America into another China communist regime. From my point of view, Parizeau won and Chretien lost.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fl7lOundk4Y
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 9:20 pm
They like an homogenous population like China. It is easier to install communism with an homogenous population. Québec was the safety valve to protect Nord America against a full communists invasion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fl7lOundk4Y
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 9:27 pm
They tried to destroy Québec national identity in order to create a more homogenous population. It failed and the abandoned their North America communist project and moved to everything to China. Québec was the North America safety valve in case something turn really bad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fl7lOundk4Y
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 9:38 pm
Il looked like a bunches of safety valves were installed in North America to protect the continent against a full transformation in a communists utopia. Most likely I could also be one of these safety valve.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fl7lOundk4Y
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 9:41 pm
Texas might also be some kind of safety valve with their relax laws on firearms.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 9:43 pm
Trump could also be seen as a safety valve even if he is a big narcissist.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 9:54 pm
Everything make more sense. Especially when you look at how Chinese cities are designed and how the Chinese people behave like obedient ants. China big cities are prefect C40 cities with 24 hours surveillance cameras. Their population is homogenous and still growing. You see what I mean.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 9:56 pm
Parizeau did not need to win the referendum to win. He just needed to scare them enough so the back down an little bit.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 10:31 pm
They even their communist message inside songs. It is a song made to control your behavior and lower your aggressiveness so the invasion is easier
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EspK03oWGN0&t=4s
Quand les hommes vivront d’amour
Il n’y aura plus de misère
Et commenceront les beaux jours
Mais nous nous serons morts mon frère
Quand les hommes vivront d’amour
Ce sera la paix sur la terre
Les soldats seront troubadours
Mais nous nous serons morts mon frère
Dans la grande chaîne de la vie
Où il fallait que nous passions
Où il fallait que nous soyons
Nous aurons eu la mauvaise partie
Quand les hommes vivront d’amour
Il n’y aura plus de misère
Et commenceront les beaux jours
Mais nous nous serons morts mon frère
Mais quand les hommes vivront d’amour
Qu’il n’y aura plus de frontières
Peut-être songeront-ils un jour
À nous qui serons morts mon frère
Nous qui aurons aux mauvais jours
Dans la haine et puis dans la guerre
Cherché la paix cherché l’amour
Qu’ils connaîtront alors mon frère
Dans la grande chaîne de la vie
Pour qu’il y ait un meilleur temps
Il faut toujours quelques perdants
De la sagesse ici-bas c’est le prix
Quand les hommes vivront d’amour
Il n’y aura plus de misère
Et commenceront les beaux jours
Mais nous serons morts mon frère
Quand les hommes vivront d’amour
Ce sera la paix sur la terre
Les soldats seront troubadours
Mais nous nous serons morts mon frère
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 10:33 pm
Another brick in the wall was created to destroy the school system and and create uneducated slaves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qs35t2xFqdU
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 10:37 pm
Mais quand les hommes vivront d’amour
Qu’il n’y aura plus de frontières
Peut-être songeront-ils un jour
À nous qui serons morts mon frère
Notice how they push their globalist and one world government agenda in a song by using this:
Qu’il n’y aura plus de frontières
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EspK03oWGN0&t=4s
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 10:39 pm
We are dealing with very vicious people with no morality at all.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 10:57 pm
Song lyric can be interpreted in multiple way.
This could be interpreted as us locking them in their big cities and letting them die without water and electricity.
Oh, when I’m on, when I’m on my way, yeah
When I see, when I see the way you stay, yeah-eah
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_6M254L0XU
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 11:13 pm
Mais quand les hommes vivront d’amour
Qu’il n’y aura plus de frontières
Peut-être songeront-ils un jour
À nous qui serons morts mon frère
Notice how they push their globalist and one world government agenda in a song by using this:
Qu’il n’y aura plus de frontières
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EspK03oWGN0&t=4s
Québec referendum was a way to say no to the destruction of Québec borders. They want a borderless planet with an homogeneous population that think and act all the same way. Parizeau was fighting to preserve Quebecers identity. He was in fact fighting against the homogénéisation of North America.
ee on Sat, 1st Jun 2024 11:17 pm
That is the final goal of the European union. A a borderless Europe with an homogeneous population that think and act all the same way.
This is why the European flag is neutral. They are seeking the homogénéisation of the Europe people.
DerHundislos on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 6:35 am
WHY elite whitey supertard president GRETA associates herself with supremacist muzzies i am doubtful her global warming spheres is for the enjoyment of elite whitey supertard presidents THEY are for SUPREMACIST MUZZIES prove me wrong
im just a tard and fmr-paultard
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 8:47 am
Having said all of this and explain to you how they work, I still want all the population of earth dead. I am not your friend and never will be.
I am here to collect your cadavers.
You took away my handguns you die. I will not be your King or Savior. I want the whole population of earth dead as per revelation 19. This will never change.
Never put take away the handguns of a man. Some men will destroy whole planet for this insult. I am not your friend. I still want your cadavers. this will never change.
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 8:52 am
I am here to collect your cadavers and I will get your fucking cadavers with the principle of conservation mass. I am not your friend and never will be.
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 8:55 am
You took away my handguns, you all die, it is that simple.
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 9:00 am
We have also put a safety valve inside earth reality to make sure that we would be successful at killing earth population. The safety valve is called the principle of conservation of mass or natural resources depletion.
Never put ownership laws on handguns or firearms. you will be killed just for that.
Anonymouse on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 9:20 am
WHY elite whitey supertard president GRETA associates herself with supremacist muzzies i am doubtful her global warming spheres is for the enjoyment of elite whitey supertard presidents THEY are for SUPREMACIST MUZZIES prove me wrong
im just a tard and fmr-paultard
eedd on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 3:21 pm
You see the movie Lucy. She is someone that has acquired the control of all the earth calculators: gravity, thermal, electrical, parametric database and can modify earth reality by interacting with earth calculator.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJONhZji00E
I told what I am planning to do with earth. I plan to kill everyone except the chosen people that can do advancedapplied mathematics. I have already explain all of this. On top of that you pissed me off with your handguns laws. I want you fucking dead.
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 3:26 pm
You took away from me my personal protection in a form of an handgun. I will show you no mercy for this insult against me. I will kill you all for that.
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 3:39 pm
Look at his fucking face. I told you that we will kill all of you. I know he is old, but still look at his face.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMJ9cuQj4l0
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 3:46 pm
I will not be part of a militia, but I can see that happening in real life in a year or two year. I can see the army turning against you. this is why you are trying to disarm the army with expensive complex equipments that are not working like the F35.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJi_wXWQ4Yc
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 3:53 pm
I love the title: Civil War (2024) – Stopping The Beast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0waZ80WPitU
I personally don’t see a civil war in the US, but the invisible world could make it happen as revenge at if they decide to.
After all, it is only a simulation. They can create fake soldiers and add them to the database of flesh beings and program them with a civil war programm.
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 3:56 pm
I told you, you can accomplish a lot with a small pick truck, automatic riffles and helicopters against an unarmed population.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0waZ80WPitU
ee on Sun, 2nd Jun 2024 4:01 pm
Here are the small helicopters I am talking about.
If we want a civil war, there will be one and nobody cannot do anything about it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUeq4QE7nEo