It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
eedd on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 8:37 pm
That would explain why they came up with female beach volleyball. They were losing control of their male slaves and it was endangering the continuation of this shit civilization.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxllkdTTs1M
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 8:41 pm
If a man like me stay single and never marry, woman and the state has no power over him. This is why they came up with female beach volleyball. They were losing control of their male slaves and it was endangering the continuation of this shit civilization.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxllkdTTs1M
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 8:46 pm
Go back and read the comments I made about the chosen people that will be allowed to leave earth. Now you should understand better what I am aiming at.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 9:15 pm
Remember a long time ago I made comment to change the human sexual reproduction ritual. I suggested to make the women bigger and more intelligent. It was to address the parasitic issues of the current female we live with it.
I also suggested some kind of male and female wrestling sexual ritual to remove weak male that should not reproduce also. I also suggested procreation by rape to eliminate weaker male and female. All of these was to address the parasitic nature of the current female and to make sure only strong and intelligent male procreate.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 10:55 pm
I want to repeat that. I am not your friend. I will not be your savior. I am here to walk over your cadavers because your restrictives handguns laws. I am here for revenge, I am not here to save you.
I am against sexual reproduction. See my previous comments .
I am here to see you die.
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 11:18 pm
I told you, there doing it on purpose with the EGR to destroy engines and push people into their C40 cities. 22:27
We are running out of oil and they need to force people into C40 cities. Remember they never tell the truth about anything.
As some guy commented on the video:
99% of the problems with these engines can be avoided if the EGR system is deleted from the get go.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lSHuzkv_RU
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 11:21 pm
Search for EGR in the comment section. You will find thing like this:
These (and any diesel) give much better service if deleted or at least flashed with an emissions intact tune that turns off EGR. Alas, the EPA put a stop to all that, because failed engines don’t emit NOX or CO2 and are more environmentally friendly than running engines
The conspiracy theorist in me thinks diesels are under particular government scrutiny and regulation as they are efficient and the government wants all of us to be in EVs. It is notable that when a gas powered engine has an emissions system, the driver gets a check engine light and can keep driving. If a diesel has an emissions issue, the driver gets a check engine light and the countdown to rapid disablement of the vehicle begins.
Just something that makes me go hmm…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lSHuzkv_RU
ee on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 11:26 pm
Ask the EPA what is their solution to keep the supply chain alive without a reliable diesel engine.
You know where to go if one day the supply chain stop because nobody wants to work on diesel engine; EPA
e on Mon, 3rd Jun 2024 11:40 pm
You are not going to find a leader to come and fix this shit for you. Who are going to take the blame for the shit you caused.
You are on your own. Maybe we will start a civil war just to fuck with you.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 4:29 am
You are just a bunch a losers worshipping a parasitic female the destroy everything she touches.
Your fucking female could not survive alone for two minutes without the help of men. She is so fucking useless.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 4:40 am
US is a just a fucking loser nation still worshiping the Jews like the fucking imbéciles they really are. You really deserve a fucking civil war.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 4:54 am
The only reason I am not killing women bare handed is because of your fucking police force that is there to protect your weak female that is good for nothing. All bets are off once the system collapse and the police force vanish.
I will kill some of these bitches bare handed.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 6:51 am
The dad the police force disappear because of the lack of bullets because of copper depletion, is the day men will start killing women bare handed.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 6:53 am
WARNINGS ISSUED IN SOUTH AFRICA FOR “DISRUPTIVE COLD AND SNOW”; + 19 SCIENTISTS WHO PREDICT IMMINENT GLOBAL COOLING
Are we going to add a civil war in canada/us on top of that. I sure hope so, so I can kill women bare handed
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 6:57 am
This is all you have, your fucking theater with COVID and Fauci as a way reduce the population.
You are just fucking losers without any real powers. I hope you fucking die.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 7:03 am
This all you have pathetic pieces of shit, COVID and Fauci as a way to reduce populaton.
You are just fucking pieces of shit manipulative losers. you are not real GOD, you are not demi GOD either. You are just fucking loser and I hate you for that.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 7:06 am
This is all you have, COVID, Fauci, Israel war and Ukraine war. This is what you have to stop earth invasions. You are just fucking losers and I would kill you bared handed if I could.
Where is my fucking money for helping you. I I know you are manipulatives piece of shits, this is why I will not get any salary. Your fucking real personality is showing right now.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 7:10 am
There certain wrong in the civil war movie. Usually when you can get your hands on a elites
, you kill them bare handed and watch their eyes while they die.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 7:12 am
This is all you have fucking theater. You are no powerful enough to access earth calculators like in the movie Lucy.
You are just fucking pathetic losers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=na38B-J4ZPw
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 7:14 am
This is all you have. Your fucking fake pathetic wars; Ukraine, Israel to scare away people. Fuck I hate you.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 7:23 am
Trying to start a civil war with these kind of head line. You hope that Whites people will start a revolution and go kill the immigrants on your behalf so you can save you shit civilisation and keep using the government, women, divorce and alimony courts to continue men oppression for the benefit of everyone except men.
It is not going to work fucking losers. You lost the West as I said many times.
20% Of New York City Hotels Are Now Migrant Shelters
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/one-every-five-new-york-city-hotels-now-migrant-shelter
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 7:33 am
I dare you to lower the interest rate and see how fast you run out of natural ressources. Do it, lower interest rate, so I can start killing women bare handed. I dare you to accelerate the collapse of the supply by lowering interest rate. I want to kill women so bad, help me here. On top of accelerating natural ressources depletion, lowering the interest rate will state an hyperinflationary spiral. Asia will benefit from this and you will kill your nations. I dare you to fucking do it.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 7:39 am
You fucking loser have nothing. No you will put trump in the Whites and hope this will start a civil war. A civil war will only happen if we get involve and create fake soldiers, fake news headlines and fake bullets for the soldiers.
Hunter Biden trail, this is all you have fucking losers. You have nothing. I pîss and shit on all of you.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 7:42 am
C’est tout ce que vous avez dans votre theatre Québecois, c’est ca que vous avez pour manipuler la population, la grosse chienne a Dumont and Dutrizac.
Qualisse que vous etes des perdant.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 7:45 am
C’est tous ce que tu as, crisse de Québecois loser a merde: Dutrizac, Nantel, Legautl, Trudeau, Dumont. C’est ca vos criss d’acteurs merdique que vous avez pour manipuler la populations. Qualisse que vous êtes des perdants.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 7:59 am
This is all you have fucking losers. Running cancer news on news network and hope people will make a mental association between cancer and vaccine and this will kill people by over stressing them mentally and physically and weaken their immune system. Fucking whore you are not powerful, you are just a piece of shit. I pise on you fucking whore. Come down here on earth fucking cunt.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 8:01 am
This is all you have, your fucking Freeland coming from Ukraine. That was your idea for pushing Canada into Ukraine war, Freeland was the platform to Lauch Canada into Ukraine war.
You have nothing you are just fucking loser. Fuck I hate all of you.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 8:05 am
This is all you have Freeland and Hunter Biden gun trial. These are your big tools to stop earth invasion. You cannot locate the doors form which they are coming from because you are all losers. This is your big play, you have anything else that would actually work. I would kill you all bared handed if I could.
supremacist muzzies jerk on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 8:05 am
WHY elite whitey supertard president Elon lies when elite whitey supertard president Newton made 1st LAW we have spacecraft and exhaust gas pushes against each in vacuum taken as a whole both physical frame and exhaust entity only elongates
im just a tard and fmr-paultard
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 8:08 am
This is all you have, long necks and face moved forward. DO you have something more scary then that fucking losers. Do you have a real plan of action other then long necks and face moved forward. I bet you don,t because you are losers.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 8:10 am
This is all you have, you shit videos with people in front of green screen. Do you have anything better then that, this shit is getting old.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 8:13 am
Show me one time where the principle of conservation of mass failed. Can you ? I bet not. This mean we have already won the war.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 8:16 am
All of this because of Canada handguns laws. Who could have seen this one coming. For a question of handguns laws.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 8:24 am
You work on this theater for 60 years or more and the best you could come up with is Legault, Dumont, Dutrizac, Freeland, Israel war, Ukraine war, Trudeau. I am supposed to be impressed by this.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 9:08 am
hypersexualisation started almost immediately after the color TV was invented. Porn on color TV stated around that time too. See Emmanuele movies
En 1972, à tout juste 21 ans, Lynda Carter se fait connaître pour la première fois lors de sa victoire à l’élection de Miss World USA (en) afin de représenter les États-Unis au concours Miss Monde 1972. Elle ne remporte pas ce titre mondial, mais figure parmi les 15 finalistes[réf. souhaitée].
Elle chante ensuite dans divers groupes à travers les États-Unis avant de se lancer dans une carrière de comédienne, en s’installant à Los Angeles, en 1975, apparaissant à la distribution de divers téléfilms et séries télévisées3.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_U_G9CEg_mY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPzGtveWYyE
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 9:11 am
I watch some of these movies on regular TV. You did not need cable. Chanel 7 from Sherbrooke was broadcasting them. You could see them with a big antenna, you did not need the cable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdLYDY3CbQ0
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 9:20 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ejsh9tn9Lo
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 9:31 am
If you are planning on using me as a procreator, it will not work. You will need to boost my sexual appetite by a lot.
Your females will need to be really pretty.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 9:52 am
If you are planning to use me as a procreator, I want to see how will sell this to me, knowing that I consider sexual reproduction a failure on all level. I hope your females smell good, including their vagina and asshole.
I want to see how you will sell that me. Do I have to pay child support and alimony for everyone of them.
WHY elite whitey supertard president Elon lies when elite whitey supertard president Newton made 1st LAW we have spacecraft and exhaust gas pushes against each in vacuum taken as a whole both physical frame and exhaust entity only elongates on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 10:54 am
im just a tard and fmr-paultard
WHY elite whitey supertard president Elon lies when elite whitey supertard president Newton made 1st LAW we have spacecraft and exhaust gas pushes against each in vacuum taken as a whole both physical frame and exhaust entity only elongates on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 10:56 am
im a truth teller and a tard and fmr-paultard
WHY elite whitey supertard president GRETA associates herself with supremacist muzzies i am doubtful her global warming spheres is for the enjoyment of supremacist muzzies on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 12:09 pm
im a truth teller and a tard and fmr-paultard
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 12:13 pm
I will repeat. I am not your friend, I will not be your savior. I came here to see you suffer and die. You took away my handguns you die. I am here to see you die. You get that fucking losers.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 12:14 pm
The questing is , are we going to torture Canada et US population using a civil war.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 12:19 pm
Maybe it is time to lower the interest rate to zero and finish North America for good. After all, we need hyperinflation to start a civil war.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 12:23 pm
After all hyperinflation will lead to supply chain breakdown, that will lead to shortage, that will lead to electrical grid instability and that will lead to civil war. I dare you to lower the interest rate and not protect the dollar.
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 12:29 pm
Apparently we are going to destroy planet earth. I feel so sad for women. think about women, what will happen to women, women are more precious and valuable things we have on planet earth, we need women because they have great leadership skill, we need women because they have emotional intelligence, we need the physical strength of women to rebuild with their hands the city. Think of women first.
South Africa tornado: Drone video shows damage after twister rips through Durban town
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pan4Lo7UZ7Q
were all lovers of supremacist muzzies here on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 12:33 pm
WHY elite whitey supertard president GRETA associates herself with supremacist muzzies i am doubtful her global warming spheres is for the enjoyment of supremacist muzzies
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 1:00 pm
We are going to use Trump as a platform to start a civil wat. We will create fake soldiers, fake bullets, fake automatic riffles. From your point of view, it will look real even if everything is fake. We are going to use the media and social to launch a civil using Trump.
And then we will cover North America soil with your bloods and flesh.
We will lower the interest rate at the right moment to start hyperinflation and help Trump in starting a civil war.
We will organized this, sweet and nice for you
ee on Tue, 4th Jun 2024 1:23 pm
No fucking Negro, you don’t get it. You are talking about one man killing two others.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0X_HlxoIqQ
This is not what I am talking about fucking negro, I am talking about an electrical grid permeant down, I am talking about coming to your offices and killing you by torture. I am talking about a real civil wars fucking negro. All stores are closed. US currency has no value because it was destroyed with hyperinflation. People forming gangs to kill you and your staff in the street naked.
Live and see fucking negro.
I am going to plunge North America in bath bloods.