It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 6:13 am
I have seen evidences, but I am waiting for more proofs, that it is possible to create a bubble of protection and keep someone on earth even after everyone is dead. This could also be a second option.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 6:22 am
If you are a chosen one and receive a protection bubble, you will have to live the rest of your life alone without any other human presence.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 6:47 am
If you are not a chosen one, you will be killed during the collapse caused by natural ressource depletion. Only chosen ones will get a protection bubble so they don’t die during the end of this civilization.
eedd on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 7:19 am
The chosen ones will become the gardians of the past for earth. All the historical knowledge of what happen during the collapse and the death of everyone will be stored in them for future reference. I like to call them the guardians of the past.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 8:18 am
I told you that I would kill all the population of earth because of Canada firearms laws. I told this is a big red line for me.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 11:56 am
The chosen people are the ones that like applied mathematics and hard core sciences, that is all we care about. Ideally they hate women and love firearms. The chosen one has to be a freedom lovers that loves firearms, firearms being the symbol of freedom and protection to explore new ground.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 11:57 am
WE are going to kill all of you so good, worthless garbage
dd on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 12:02 pm
Have you looked at your fucking face in a mirror. None of you look like a human. All of you have long necks and face moved forward. We are not killing anything of value, we are just killing fake human beings. You all have fake CGI hairs. You are not a real being, this is why are comfortable kill all the population of earth.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 12:05 pm
these two people are not real humans, We are not killing anything that could be called an human. Show your real body shape, maybe I will show mercy to you
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4GcrcIC4dM
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 12:13 pm
I can see that you are not real humans. You thought that you could hide from me and pretend to be a real human like me. I see who you are.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4XiKChyK7A
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 12:19 pm
Can you see your fucking reflexion in a mirror. You must have noticed that people like me can see that you are not humans. I have not met one fucking real human in four years. I can see you. What are you, just some kind of fucking CGI with a basic survival programming: eat, shit, piss, looking for protection using money.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4GcrcIC4dM
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 12:22 pm
We are not killing real humans. You are just fucking CGI, why should I feel guilty of anything. I CAN SEE THAT YOU ARE NOT HUMANS. GET IT. GO LOOK AT YOURSELF IN THE MIRROR.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 12:23 pm
I can see in my real life that you are not humans. What are you going to do about that.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 12:30 pm
You behave exactly like a primitive fake being with a primitive programming: reproduce, piss, eat, shit and trying to access money to keep alive. Your programming seem to be missing a morality module, a intelligence module, a creativity module. You need a lot API module update before you start to behave like a real human.
It is so obvious you are fucking fake.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 12:34 pm
I will repeat that because you are not intelligent. I can see you. I can see that you are fake humans. Go look at yourself in the mirror if you can see your own reflection.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 12:36 pm
I am GOD. You are just fucking useless garbage that we are in process of killing.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 12:40 pm
There is no way you can see yourself in a mirror. You would have seen that your neck got longer and your face has moved forward. You are fake CGI images.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 12:44 pm
This shit is getting really tiring to me. I see no reason for me to play this charade any longer. I think we should kill all of you immediately and move on to something else.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 12:46 pm
Canada denied me personal protection using hands guns but you are just fucking images and have no real flesh body . I am being denied personal protection by a fucking AI algorithm. Let’s see how all of this will play out in the future.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 12:49 pm
I cannot believe that shit. I am being denied personal protection in the form of a hand gun while I am the only real being of flesh in Canada. How can I kill you if you are not real. What is the big deal about firearms laws. You don’t exist, why are doing it on purpose to piss me off.
dd on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 12:56 pm
This whole operation will fail I can see it from miles away. Juste the way that my personal needs were neglected tell me a lot about you. No access to personal protection such as hand guns, no financial assistance of any form, no salary of any form, no secure protocol of identification so I can validate your morality.
This whole operation will fail. Just wait until we reach then of this story.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 1:03 pm
There is no way you can see yourself in a mirror. Otherwise you would have guess by now that we have taken control of the whole earth energy field and working on changing earth energy field so we can kill you. If you could see yourself in a mirror the media and medical establishment would be talking about it on the internet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4GcrcIC4dM
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 1:30 pm
There is no way, you can see yourself in a mirror. We have been changing your physical apparence in a brutal manner for the last 4 year. We are slowly giving all you an hideous face. You would know by now if you could your own reflection in a mirror.
If you could see your face in a mirror, you would know by now that we have taken full control of the whole earth.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 1:52 pm
I hate the fucking Jews and Israel, I don’t want hear about them. I want all the fucking Jews dead. Jews will become a big problem later on if you guys refuse to kill all the Jews on earth.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 1:57 pm
I will repeat that your fucking operation will fail, you neglected my personal needs and you put the needs of your operation above my needs. I will sabotage your piece of shit operation if I can.
eedd on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 2:07 pm
You neglected my personal needs in all this operation, I will neglect your personal needs also. I will sabotage your fucking operation if I can. You fuck me over, I will fuck you over.
ee on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 2:44 pm
Fucking cock sucker, you are using my comments to push your theater forward but you are not willing to pay me for my work.
communtiy energy systems on Wed, 28th Aug 2024 4:19 pm
lucky country should take this into consideration…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/08/27/tesla-ford-gm-mercedes-evs/
ee on Wed, 28th Aug 2024 7:18 pm
We live among the spirits of the dead. this video explains it better. There was a rébellion and they were killed and their sprits were send on earth. This is the first dead. This is why they don’t see their reflection in a mirror, they have no flesh body like me. This is what the book of life of revelation 20 is all about. Revelation 20 is about their permanent execution.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_Fp00T_gDw
Apparent I am moving to Brazil after we klled everyone on earth. I saw a truck like with a big sleeper cab in the back at the grocery store.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWsA9B-kFsM
I told you that I will kill the whole population of earth because of Canada firearms laws. A man has to put a red line somewhere. Canada firearms laws where the red not cross for me.
ee on Wed, 28th Aug 2024 7:33 pm
As soon as the whole population of earth is dead, I am moving in Brazil to pursue my scientific and knowledge endeavors.
I will locate a truck like this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWsA9B-kFsM
and attach at the end of the trailer and small trailer to carry a pickup truck. These truck are too big for maneuvering in big cities. I will park outside the big cities and use the pickup truck to go pick up engineering, chemistry, mathematical books. I will also stop at guns stores to pickup all kinds of guns and ammo. I will slowly make me toward Brazil while gathering stuff. Everyone will be dead, so earth will basically belong to me. so I can take all the time needed to learn to drive a semi-trailer truck. Sleeper cab is big enough to live in for a while.
I told you that I will kill the whole population of earth because of Canada firearms laws. A man has to put a red line somewhere. Canada firearms laws where the red not cross for me.
ee on Wed, 28th Aug 2024 7:42 pm
I am ready and I have plans for different situations. I am just waiting for the population of earth to die.
ee on Wed, 28th Aug 2024 7:44 pm
1:30 he is just a spirit without a flesh body. This is why he cannot see his reflection in a mirror. You can clearly see that he does not have a flesh body.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1L-VP_AFYc
ee on Wed, 28th Aug 2024 7:51 pm
I also explain to all of you that earth was designed as a torture and execution chamber. I explained that natural resources extraction has to obey the law of conservation of mass, meaning that the depletion of natural ressources will happen and kill everyone living on earth.
You are here because you dare to disobey GOD and you will be killed for that.
ee on Wed, 28th Aug 2024 8:05 pm
There is no immigrants invading earth. It is the second death taking place where the dead are resurrected for final judgement and execution. there is no inner earth. This is what revelation 20 says
And the sea gave up the dead which were in it; and death and hell delivered up the dead which were in them: and they were judged every man according to their works.
It is the final judgement,
eee on Wed, 28th Aug 2024 8:09 pm
There is no immigrants invading earth. the migrants that you see are the spirits of the death as mentioned in revelation 20:
death and hell delivered up the dead which were in them: and they were judged every man according to their works.
ee on Wed, 28th Aug 2024 8:15 pm
If they could see themself in a mirror everyone in the media and the medical establishment would be talking about it. They have no flesh body, they are dead spirits manipulating the light spectrum to project the image of flesh humans.
There is probably only 5 or 6 real humans on earth. The rest are the dead.
ee on Wed, 28th Aug 2024 8:23 pm
I have seen Legault when I was younger. I was at top of the stairs, he was at the bottom in the Agora. I remember that my first impression was that he was looking like 2D CGI image. I was maybe 7 to 8 meter away from him. Legault is just a piece of shit spirit here for execution. Too bad I cannot get his head in a jar.
ee on Wed, 28th Aug 2024 9:58 pm
Canada and US are shit waste land not suited for life.
ee on Wed, 28th Aug 2024 10:09 pm
Maybe it is time to kill the whole population of earth and restart from scratch. Never take away the firearms of a men like me. I have a plan once everyone on earth is dead.
ee on Wed, 28th Aug 2024 10:27 pm
I told you that we created earth as a perfect execution chamber. read my past comments. You are locked into an execution chamber and you will be executed at our time of our choosing.
ee on Wed, 28th Aug 2024 10:39 pm
There is no way this guy can see his reflection is a mirror because he is a dead spirit manipulating the light spectrum.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PinFHOiOwXY
His name is not in the boot of life of revelation 20. He will be killed again.
Then I saw a great white throne and him who was seated on it. From his presence earth and sky fled away, and no place was found for them. 12 And I saw the dead, great and small, standing before the throne, and books were opened. Then another book was opened, which is the book of life. And the dead were judged by what was written in the books, according to what they had done. 13 And the sea gave up the dead who were in it, Death and Hades gave up the dead who were in them, and they were judged, each one of them, according to what they had done. 14 Then Death and Hades were thrown into the lake of fire. This is the second death, the lake of fire. 15 And if anyone’s name was not found written in the book of life, he was thrown into the lake of fire.
ee on Wed, 28th Aug 2024 10:59 pm
And I saw the dead, great and small, standing before the throne, and books were opened. They are the dead mentioned in revelation 20
The dead are the ones that cannot see their reflection in a mirror.
0
After 4 years I am the only one who has noticed that people god uglier, neck longer and face moved forward. They are the dead that cannot see themself in a mirror.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 8:20 am
Does he know that he is not funny? Does he knows that we are mocking him with fake laugh?
Does he know that we made his face ugly? Can he see his reflection in a mirror? They are the dead mentioned in the bible waiting for their final execution
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewyRVwSWVuo
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 8:24 am
200-plus Republican staffers signing a letter endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris on ‘Gutfeld!’ #foxnews #fox #gutfeld
Gutfeld is too bright. They are reading this website and they also like my plan to install a right wing kind to go after the cabal:EPA,FDA,media,academai,Jews
They support Harris because they want to see her, her husband and kids executed publicly be a right wing militia.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 8:26 am
200-plus Republican staffers signing a letter endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris on ‘Gutfeld!’ #foxnews #fox #gutfeld
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewyRVwSWVuo
Gutfeld is not too bright. They are reading this website and they also like my plan to install a right wing kind to go after the cabal: EPA, FDA, media, academia, Jews, UN, Council of Foreign relation, Atlantic council
They support Harris because they want to see her, her husband and kids executed publicly be a right wing militia. I lot of people what to revenge against the cabal,. I have talked about that.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 8:33 am
A lot of people in the US want retribution and revenge against the cabal. They will install a King to the retribution of their behalf. This is why some members of the cabal are starting to get nervous including politicians, the media, government employees, think tanks members, Jews ans son on. This is why Gutfeld is panic also. He know a King might come for him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewyRVwSWVuo
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 8:39 am
This also means that a lot of people don’t want to be part of globalism anymore and they are installing a King there to do the job on their behalf.
Gutfeld should now that
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 8:42 am
Trump backing out of the debate means that they will install Kamala Harris as president and most likely she will be executed to please people and avoid social revolution or diminish the chances of revolution within the US.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 8:54 am
Killing Harris will send a stronger message as to stop using women as a force of destruction to install communism.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 9:18 am
Every Canadian politicians past and present that has voted yes for the actual Canadian firearms laws will be killed in a public manner.
Every Québec politicians that has voted yes for the creation of Québec Firearms registry will also be killed in a public manner.
Nobody takes away my firearms and live to brag about it.