It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 9:22 am
There will be no great reset in North America. Instead, there will be a great retaliation in North America. GOD wanted his own human family and intend on seeking revenge for the destruction of his personal human family project.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 9:24 am
If you are a politicians, you will be killed during the great retaliation.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 9:26 am
If you are a politicians, you will be killed during the great retaliation. This include the past and present politicians.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 9:37 am
Everyone has its personal reasons for retaliation. My personal retaliation will directed against anyone that helped to create the Canadian Firearms laws, including RCMP personal that were involve in it. Single women might be able to retaliate against academia that is responsible for the creation of feminism.
The history book will call that, the great retaliation of North America.
dd on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 9:58 am
Canada and the US are both barren wasteland improper for a real human family. The New Eden will not be build in Canada or the US.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 10:02 am
Before establishing a New Eden, the earth must be cleaned of the dead. See revelation 20.
Judgment Before the Great White Throne
11 Then I saw a great white throne and him who was seated on it. From his presence earth and sky fled away, and no place was found for them. 12 And I saw the dead, great and small, standing before the throne, and books were opened. Then another book was opened, which is the book of life. And the dead were judged by what was written in the books, according to what they had done. 13 And the sea gave up the dead who were in it, Death and Hades gave up the dead who were in them, and they were judged, each one of them, according to what they had done. 14 Then Death and Hades were thrown into the lake of fire. This is the second death, the lake of fire. 15 And if anyone’s name was not found written in the book of life, he was thrown into the lake of fire.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 10:05 am
La chienne a Dominic LeBlanc je la garde pour moi. It is him that has created the last iteration of the Canadian firearms laws. This bitch belong to me.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 10:10 am
Nobody touch or harm Dominic LeBlanc,. He belong for my personal pleausure.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 10:11 am
This piece of shit of LeBlanc belong to me. I will come for him when the time is right.
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-safety-canada/news/2024/05/statement-from-the-minister-of-public-safety-democratic-institutions-and-intergovernmental-affairs.html
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 10:20 am
Look at how ugly the US is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijiQiahgHys
Anyone living in Canada knows it is an ugly a nations.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 10:43 am
Next time you will think twice before inventing killing weapon like firearms. The next time you invent killing weapons, they should be available to the whole population, not just for the authorities that are are using them to oppresse people You invented weapons, they should available to the whole population not just the police force and the army that you are using to oppress people.
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ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 10:48 am
We will use the firearms that you have invented to oppress people to oppress you back. We will use your firearms to oppress politicians, media people, police forces, EPA and FDA staff, WEF, UN and many more.
We will use your own invention to oppress you with it.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 10:57 am
We will go through a whole process of punitive actions against the dead, the ones that cannot their image in a mirror. The election and public execution of Kamala will be just one of a multitudes punitive actions coming until you final dead as per revelation 20.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 11:11 am
You have invented weapons to kill and control people. We will go to the end of your expriment by making all the type of firearms freely available to anyone. You started something we will go to the end of it. You are already dead, you cannot see yourself in a mirror.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 11:17 am
You created weapons as a tool to control people using the fear of dead but you did not share these tools with the population. I will reestablish equality by making firearms available to the population so they can use them to the fear of dead into you. You want full equality, I will give it, including equality of owning weapons.
dd on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 1:28 pm
I told you that we will push Harris into power then we will start the great North America retaliation. Dominic Leblanc belongs to me.
US Army rebukes Trump campaign for incident at Arlington National Cemetery
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxEqhoMTQ74
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 1:48 pm
You cannot create weapons of death such as firearms and use them at your advantage to control earth. If you create such things as weapons of death, you have to make them available to whole population. It is called the principle of equal self determination that you violated by creating Canada firearms laws. You cannot created something that give you an advantage over a population and not share it with them.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 2:44 pm
You cannot create weapons of death such as firearms and use them at your advantage to control earth. If you create such things as weapons of death, you have to make them available to whole population. It is called the principle of equal self determination that you violated by creating Canada firearms laws. You cannot created something that give you an advantage over a population and not share it with them.
You also violated the basic concept of morality, because you became the only one who can define morality because you have an unfair advantage (the power of fast death with a weapon) over the population you want to dominate The only way to restore equality is to remove all firearms laws so you cannot be the only owning the concept of morality.
You are in violations of two divines concepts of self determination by pretending to only you knows what is morality and not sharing the access to firearms with the population you seek to control
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 2:48 pm
If you create weapons of death such as firearms to take advantage of population, you have to share these weapons of death with the population you see to dominate. It is called the principale of equality that you did violate with no shame at all.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 3:37 pm
You should be careful about my comments. I will not come to save earth. Comment are the best your are going to get from me. You are not paying me a salary I will not be there to help in your time of need. I will not be your king, your militia leader or your savior your are on your own.
I had to put a red line somewhere. Canadians firearms laws is the red line you were not supposed to cross. You have neglected my needs I will neglect your needs when you will be in time of distress. I am using this web site as personal entertainment.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 3:40 pm
These comments are more for historical record about earth. The main receiver of these comments is the unseen realm to help fill their appetite for knowledge.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 3:42 pm
I had to put a red line somewhere. Canadians firearms laws is the red line you were not supposed to cross. You have neglected my needs I will neglect your needs when you will be in time of distress. I am using this web site as personal entertainment. All the population
of earth will kill because of Canada firearms laws. This is the red earth was not supposed to cross but did anyway.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 3:43 pm
I had to put a red line somewhere. Canadians firearms laws is the red line you were not supposed to cross. You have neglected my needs I will neglect your needs when you will be in time of distress. I am using this web site as personal entertainment. All the population of earth will be killed because of Canada firearms laws. This is the red line earth was not supposed to cross but did anyway.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 3:45 pm
We are documenting the last days of planet earth. All the population of earth will be killed because of Canada firearms laws. This is the red line earth was not supposed to cross but did anyway.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 4:03 pm
It is unlikely that earth population will be alive in 5 year for now. In 5 years from now I might only survivor on earth and living in Brazil or I might have left earth for the invisible realm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUjMpma-5jw
You have no alternatives for copper and oil. Earth is matrix of solid only modifiable by heat : thing of the steel making process.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPUSI019011
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 4:32 pm
The planet is also cooling down. The average temperature of earth is cooling meaning that you are in water vapor sursaturation. This causes condensation of the water vapor in the air or rain like you like to call it on earth. Because you are in a global cooling event, water accumulats on the north and south poles, on top of the mountain and in big lakes leading to less water returning to land and creating desert.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 4:33 pm
All the population of earth will be killed because of Canada firearms laws. This is the red line earth was not supposed to cross but did anyway.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 4:35 pm
We are going to fuck you over so good. Nobody takes away from me my firearms.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 5:22 pm
We are going to fuck you over so good. on top of that we will change the energy framework of earth. This is why you see long neck everywhere, it is because of us playing the energy field. If you don’t get the right flesh body update, you will get sick and die.
We are going too fuck all of earth so good.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 5:49 pm
If you had not invented firearms to control the population, I would not be demanding that you remove all the laws on firearms. You have an unfair advantage. You have only two options. Either you stop all the production of firearms at a planetary scale main that nobody will have firearms on earth, including the army and police force with firearms.
The other option is to remove all firearms laws to create a fair playing fields.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 5:59 pm
We are going to fuck over the population of earth so good. You just have no idea yet.
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 6:07 pm
We are going to fuck you over so good, fucking pieces of shit. Earth is a matrix solid only transformed by heat. Electrical voltage is a measure of heat transfer.
You created firearms to dominate earth population, for equity purposes, firearms should be available to all population of earth. Dominic LeBlanc belongs to me for execution by torture
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 6:07 pm
We are going to fuck you over so good, fucking pieces of shit. Earth is a matrix solid only transformable by heat. Electrical voltage is a measure of heat transfer.
You created firearms to dominate earth population, for equity purposes, firearms should be available to all population of earth. Dominic LeBlanc belongs to me for execution by torture
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 6:36 pm
2:12 she is wet. LOOOL This is fucking funny
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGiSK-4kdNQ
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 9:32 pm
Think what you want of this. Am I supposed to have an erection because it is not working.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUA2m2GEeA0
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 10:41 pm
These 3 persons are played by the same actor. Look at the mouth, lips and skin portion going from the nose to the bottom of the jaw.
3:25 Harris https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sj7nTIBEzSs
4:36 Obama https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OaWeQ6Sw1Y
1:45 Deidre Bosa CNBC https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enZ4lJOFi5k&t=106s
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 10:45 pm
You need a king with absolue power to interrogate these people in a torture chamber.
These 3 persons are played by the same actor. Look at the mouth, lips and skin portion going from the nose to the bottom of the jaw.
3:25 Harris https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sj7nTIBEzSs
4:36 Obama https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OaWeQ6Sw1Y
1:45 Deidre Bosa CNBC https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enZ4lJOFi5k&t=106s
ee on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 11:01 pm
Sadly you will need a King with absolute power over the land and with his personal armed guard and his own personal army. There is no other to solve this.
I appoint elite supertard president eee supertard his title is 'the lover' of supremacist muzzies on Thu, 29th Aug 2024 11:38 pm
he obv. did saline injection that’s why he’s still here.
MUZZ-19 has semen from DROPOUT-19 he mixes it in his basement using empty paint buckets
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 1:05 am
Just to make sure that we understand each other. I said you need a King, I never said that I will your King. I still want the whole population of earth dead because of Canadian firearms laws. I had to put a red line somewhere and Canadian firearms laws are the red that should have never been cross. So I will never be your king, militia leader.
I am still waiting for my salary for the 4 year of work I did for free. I simply cannot work with you I don’t trust you.
dd on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 1:09 am
You neglected my personal needs for almost 4 years, you will most likely do it again to me in the future. We simply cannot work together.
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 1:10 am
You are still really lucky that I am writing comments for free.
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 1:29 am
My goal is still to kill everyone living on earth because of Canadian firearms laws.
MUZZ-19 has semen from DROPOUT-19 he mixes it in his basement using empty paint buckets on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 8:50 am
elite supertard president ee used both saline injection and retractable needles
supertards, please feel at ease among friends
we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here.
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 10:41 am
0:10 do you see the dead trees there. I told you that I would kill all the population of earth because of Canadian firearms laws. I said in the past that I will turn earth vegetation from green to yellow and brown, brown being the color of death for the green vegetation.
I told you that I has to put a red line somewhere. Canadians firearms laws were the red lines not to cross bu you did it anyway.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amThSEwAB1g
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 10:53 am
Ukraine Says “Druzhba Pipeline Will Cease Operations” Of Russian Fuels This Winter
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/ukraine-says-druzhba-pipeline-will-cease-operations-january-1-2025
Eventually you might see a retaliation against Europe, Jews and Israel. These nations where the biggest advocate for progressiveness values such as feminism, diversity, inclusion, EV cars, smart cities and so on. There might come a time where heavy retaliation will be given on these nations by the rest of the world by stopping all maritime containers shipping trade with into these nations.
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 10:59 am
When I am saying Europe. I include UK being part of Europe.
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 11:04 am
UK has one of the most strongest currency in the world, yet the manufacture barely nothing. Nobody find that strange
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 11:40 am
Eventually an history book will be written about me. Maybe not on planet earth but most likely in the unseen realm. What do you think they will say about.
He was the most intelligent man on earth. He was so intelligent that he now lives with us in the unseen realm. He lived in Brazil for a while after the dead of everyone on earth. His teachings were full of wisdom that is still used in other realms.
He destroyed all of Canada because of the Canadians firearms laws.