It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Ulauine marcoote on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 10:47 am
They can stand it anymore and want earth totally destroyed. Chosen one were brough down on earth to see its end.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxjnAfUmVMw
They can stand that kind of crap anymore.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 11:20 am
They hated the theater associated around cuba nuclear missiles crise and they killed Kennedy for that and ruin Nixon presidency.
Isavelle jean on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 11:29 am
They did not like the installation of feminism in Québec. They created the polytechnique massacre as a warning. People did not see that as a warning, same for Kennedy assassination. So now they are pulling the plug on earth.
Yellen jamal on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 11:47 am
They are going to destroy earth and pull the plug on it. Now I am sure of it. I was not sure before but now I am.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLaXEgzFucM
Yellne Janus on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 12:20 pm
This is the original video. The sound track as not been modified. I have troubles to believe that it is the original sound track. Nixon said that he would use the population to force a government changes. Can we get a confirmation that this is the original sound track. If it is the real sound track, they want after Nixon and Kennedy to send a message.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9cdRpE4KKc
Ulaine marcotte on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 12:22 pm
If it is the real sound track, they went after Nixon and Kennedy to send a message.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9cdRpE4KKc
Hekine arian on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 12:52 pm
Un vieux documentaire prédisait notre monde numérique en 1980 – et il avait raison
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uW_heu38iME
They will fail again and everyone will die on earth, I just told you the future.
I am a gen X and I am a slacker at heart. I won’t look at the video. Just for your info.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 1:01 pm
I stand by what I said, they will pull the plug on earth.
Yellen ulaine on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 1:07 pm
They went after Nixon and Kennedy.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/v99SkCbcRgY
Denis Trudel on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 1:41 pm
I am a gen X, I am a slacker, I don’t like working, I like to stay in bed all day long and all night long.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 1:43 pm
I would like to thank you for not giving me money, this is the best thing that ever happen to me. This is the push I needed to move my life toward extreme voluntary simplicity.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 1:45 pm
I would like to thank you for not giving me money, this is the best thing that ever happen to me. This is the push I needed to move my life toward extreme voluntary simplicity. I was finally able to realize my long time dream: I am a gen X, I am a slacker, I don’t like working, I like to stay in bed all day long and all night long and I am proud of it.
Natal jean on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 2:10 pm
I would like to thank you for not giving me money, this is the best thing that ever happen to me. This is the push I needed to move my life toward extreme voluntary simplicity. I was finally able to realize my long time dream: I am a gen X, I am a slacker, I don’t like working, I like to stay in bed all day long and all night long and I am proud of it.
While I am laying on my bed, I like to put one finger in my ass and smell my own shit. Shit is a wonderful biological achievement that can be recycled into food for vegetable. What a beautiful system that recycle everything including shit.
Bacteria lnadry on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 2:40 pm
People don’t understand how beautiful shit is. For example, a rabbit shits in the wood. The sun, water, bacterias will decompose the rabbit shits into some kind of compost. The compost is now becoming food for growing some green vegetation. The rabbit eat the vegetation. The rabbit shit and the eternal cycle of shit restart. Earth is really heaven and we should absolutely worship shit in all its forms.
Remember that the next time you take a shit, you are producing high value fertilizers.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 22nd Oct 2025 3:08 am
Feeding us human flesh instead of animal flesh. Death sees death, and know what death is. This shit is so funny.
We live in the realm of death as I explain before. Trying to disguise the realm of death as heaven on earth. Inverting everything as usual. This shit is so funny it is beyond imaginable. The realm of death being killed by death himself. This is what happen when you build a reality around death as a cohesive element.
Singed Denis Trudel, aka, owner of the earth
Denis Trudel on Wed, 22nd Oct 2025 3:18 am
I know what death is. Only death can write such song lyrics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhQxd49znzs&list=RDVhQxd49znzs&start_radio=1
Signed Denis Trudel, aka, death, owner of the earth
Denis Trudel on Wed, 22nd Oct 2025 3:38 am
The realm of death (earth) killed by what it has created, death. Death is so powerful that it is also capable of killing the realm of death (earth). This shit is so funny, it is beyond imaginable. Created death to rule over the realm of death. Of course death can kill the realm of death(earth)
Signed Denis Trudel, aka, death, owner of the earth
Isabelle jean on Wed, 22nd Oct 2025 3:48 am
You created death to rule of over the realm of death (terre). Death does what it is supposed to do, kill everything, including the realm of death or earth.
This shit is so funny.
Alain gendron on Wed, 22nd Oct 2025 3:52 am
This goes way, way beyond the immigration problem you are trying to fight. This goes way and way beyond everything.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 22nd Oct 2025 3:56 am
At the end of all of this, only death will be left alive and he will roam earth for eternity alone. Death is walking slowly and surely killing everything in front of him, until everything on earth is dead.
Death knows death and what death is all about.
Signed Denis Trudel, aka, death, owner of the earth
Denis Trudel on Wed, 22nd Oct 2025 4:06 am
Death knows death and death knows that gaza destruction is not real death. You cannot lie to death.
Alain demand on Wed, 22nd Oct 2025 4:08 am
Death demands real death or cadavers. You either deliver real death to death or death will come and serve himself with human cadavers.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 22nd Oct 2025 4:17 am
Never build a reality around the concept of death. The only one that will survive such a reality is death himself, everything else will be killed.
Isabelle lantier on Wed, 22nd Oct 2025 4:23 am
This is so beyond your pay grade with your long neck, chin moved forward, funny ears, funny hands.
Isavelle jean on Wed, 22nd Oct 2025 6:15 am
This the small closet room I was talking about when I got a blow job. Sperm collecting unit. At 0:00.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aWqkXHlouA
Denis Trudel on Wed, 22nd Oct 2025 6:27 am
This is how a civilization dies. The same thing will happen in the West. In the south they don’t have to deal with winter, so they have an advantage the North does not have. The North population will die first, the south population last.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aWqkXHlouA
Isavbell jean on Wed, 22nd Oct 2025 6:40 am
If you understand spirituality that earth is all about death not life, you might have a chance to roam earth as death after everyone on earth is dead. Some spiritual being have done it.
Maartine labonte on Wed, 22nd Oct 2025 6:48 am
The negro of Africa will inherit the earth and will be the last ones to die. Whites people will die first as they are pathetic losers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CElP79NyY-w
Isavelle james on Thu, 23rd Oct 2025 2:55 pm
Might as well put hard core porn directly on YouTube as this point.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPEPpQL7_4s
Yellen james on Thu, 23rd Oct 2025 3:02 pm
You just have to say so, If I have to follow a precise masturbation schedule.
Jeremoe Laporte on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 12:35 pm
Husky dog with its specialized fur. Outside fur that feel like a wind and water proof layer and the soft inside fur that feel like a isolation layer. Look like a dog that has been genetically engineers to support really cold temperature
Fucking humid out there.
Karine Jean on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 12:55 pm
This is between 10 to 15 millions easily. Anything below 10 millions means they are giving it for free and absorbing the lost somewhere else.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8la0Q6uxLo
Karine Jean on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 1:14 pm
I was able to look at a Tremor F350 close by in the parking lot of dépanneur store where I bought some cigarettes. Look like an expedition truck mixed with an utility truck. Look like a truck you would use to colonize new lands. Look like a truck that can be seriously abuse over and over.
Could not look underneath obviously, but it looks like an expedition truck first and utility truck second.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 1:42 pm
Unless I am missing critical information because I don’t have a car, I stand by what I said before, they will fail and will have to reboot. I see no evidence that the calculator of conservation of mass is showing misbehavior of any kind and is about to collapse. I stand by almost all the past comments I have written
Heline amrie on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 1:48 pm
The fucking Husky dog fur seems to respect the principle of thermal exchanges thought in engineering schools. I don’t think they are controlling earth calculators and they will fail again because of that.
Isabelle Lanthier on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 2:10 pm
I also suspect that talented people have given up and have chosen death instead of life. I don’t have a car and cannot drove down to Montreal and other places to verify me theory, but I suspect it is the case. By looking at how the infrastructures are maintained seems to prove me right about that. The infrastructures will degrade rapidly as they are maintained in a botch manner.
They moved from creosote treated wood for electrical poles to some kind of green stuff. From my personal experience the green stuff is inferior to creosote treated woods. Only the chosen ones will live, everyone else will die.
Yellen Maritie on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 2:22 pm
I could go on and on, but I am a gen and I am a slacker at heart. I fully understand why they created this slavery system. It is the only way to build a civilization in a reality based on the concept of death. Earth is a matrix of solid only modifiable by heat and hold together by gravity and friction. Once you understand that, you understand why they created this slavery system. They will fail again, as the main problem about earth is that it is built around a matrix of solid and death as a cohesive element.
you guys are so fucked it is actually funny, One shit decision after another they made: feminism, guns laws, justice system, exponential financial system, low quality crappy flesh body, globalism and maritime trade. You guys are really fucked.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 2:35 pm
Death knows death, and death see death when he sees it. Death can also see dead souls inside living flesh body. Death knows what death.
You are totally fucked.
Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhQxd49znzs&list=RDVhQxd49znzs&start_radio=1
Denis Trudel on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 2:47 pm
Look at my comments, it is pretty obvious that I have participated one way or the other at the creation of earth as a trap to kill the living death. You are fucked.
Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhQxd49znzs&list=RDVhQxd49znzs&start_radio=1
We have all of you by the balls, you have nowhere to run.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 2:53 pm
death knows death, because death created death.
Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhQxd49znzs&list=RDVhQxd49znzs&start_radio=1
We have all of you by the balls, you have nowhere to run.
Isabelle Lanthier on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 3:04 pm
I am a gen X, I am a slacker so I am too lazy to explain in more detail, let’s just say we have all of you by the balls, you have nowhere to run.
Alain berthiaume on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 3:10 pm
We designed earth is such a way that to survive you have to lie, cheat, steal. We have designed earth is such a way that earth population will be forced to kill each other for money and and change to live one more day. You just have no fucking idea with we did to all of you.
Alain gendron on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 3:17 pm
The only way to keep earth reality alive is to refill oil wells. Prove to me you are powerful and refill oil wells. Refill earth with heat by refilling oil wells, then I will know you are more powerful that we are.
Ulysee James on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 3:47 pm
Have you ever solder copper pipes. It takes heat to do it. The only way to keep earth reality alive is to refill oil wells. Prove to me you are powerful and refill oil wells. Refill earth with heat by refilling oil wells, then I will know you are more powerful that we are.
I am waiting to see how powerful you really are, refill earth with heat or if you wish oil, natural gas and coal. Prove to me how powerful you are. Have you tried to remote a rusted bolt on a engine exhaust without heat.
I am waiting to see how powerful you are.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyVbjDsric4
Nathalie Jean on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 3:49 pm
What did I say about earth, earth is a matrix of solid only modifiable by heat and hold together by friction and gravity. See below, the fittings are hold together by friction before soldering them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyVbjDsric4
You know what I am talking about, you did that before.
Iliane marcotte on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 3:51 pm
We fuck you over really good, don’t we.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyVbjDsric4
Alain gendron on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 4:22 pm
This fucking sub standard earth reality. Still incapable of manufacturing a infrared heater for home usage that can last for more that one month of continual operation. Everything is a failure on this planet. See at 4:49. Still incapable of fully mastering infrared energy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meFtoRTWox0
Denis Trudel on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 4:53 pm
Still incapable of fully mastering infrared energy and produce a home heater that will last and endure abuse. Yet you can create a fucking cell phone to track my purchases and where I am going. How powerful are you. You don’t seem that powerful to me.
If you were really powerful you would be mastering infrared energy as it is the best source of heat. I bet you are just a primitive specie that love digging the ground and experimenting by adding heat to everything. Let’s talk about your inefficient électronique components that produce too much heat for nothing.
People have just no idea how shitty earth really is. If people just knew what men like me know.
ISabelle gay on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 5:07 pm
Except for a couple of off roads trucks that look masculine like Tremor and Power Wagon, the whole car fleet look gay and feminine. Can even not manufacture cars that are simple and masculine. Everything is fucking gay and feminine on this shit planet. Where are the masculine men that are going to maintain the infrastructure of your shit smart cities. You must be asking this question yourself, I cannot believe you did not notice that also.
Isabelle Marie on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 5:12 pm
What about your fucking mechanical relay with contacts turning black, that must be filed regularly. Another shit invention of earth.