It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
isavelle jean on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 8:01 am
You are supposed to rape women also. I am serious. A good war is where you rape women and kill women that refuse to be raped. This is how I used to do it.
Alain marcotte on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 8:03 am
I prefer to hire mercenaries. You put the cash on the table and you said, I have a job for you. This fucking shit is gay as fuck,
Denis Trudel on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 8:09 am
This is fucking gay as shit. No way these guys are capable of raping women during war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvbJ2Vct1VU
alan laporte on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 8:14 am
Where are the 12 gauge for close combat (2 to 5 meter distance ) in tight area. You don’t teach them to shoot from the waist with a shot gun in tight area such as a conference room.
This shit is so fucking gay.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBTWWCGDr-M
Denis Jean on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 8:19 am
Where are the courses to kill all the people living inside a building.
Alaina jamal on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 10:36 am
This is not $265000 (see at 5:28) this is more like one million and the machine is 5 millions. They are matching the price of the machine according to your expected revenue. They have a big database and know everything about farming exploitation and you. They ajust the price of the machine accordingly.
Mutual fund and John Deere are taking the loss and John Deere publishes false financial statement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkTErLmI4Gg
WHEN CONvid first started circa 3/2020 this elite whitey supertard atheistic supremacist president thunderf00t supreme went on self imposed quarantine and I said it smells and demanded immediate amputation on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 10:53 am
WERE all supremacist muzzies now
Isavelle jane on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 11:25 am
I should not write, it is probably not accurate, nothing worse that drowning a bitch in a pool and realizing that she want more and more of it. She would look at you all insulted because you did not kill her. I would enter in a fit a rage.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/C_PD737206s
Yellen jame on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 11:43 am
There is also the raping bitch, she would get upset if you refuse to impregnate her, and she would rape you and after that she leaves. Fucking savage.
Heline jean on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 5:30 pm
Where are the training videos about killing big corporation CEO in conference rooms. Where are the videos about killing all the staff of the EPA by burning them alive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RS7EKkav_Vw
Alain gendro on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 5:36 pm
There must be a mistake, I was looking for videos of mercenaries killing new born babies and fertile women inside a natality ward. Where are the cadavers of dead fertile women. Where are the pretty nurses what mercenaries are sexual gang banging on a table.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RS7EKkav_Vw
Ukraine jean on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 5:45 pm
Young man without a future don’t want a secure vehicle. They go to war to die because they know they don’t have a futur. You tell them, I offer you a way out of this shit world, I offer you the possibility of raping women before you die, I offer you the possible of killing politicians before you die, I offer you a way out, suicide by war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbxYWVgTGfE
Matrine villeneuve on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 5:59 pm
You tell young kids, I offer you a way out of this shit world, you can drive a Can Am Maverick X3 and kill people with a automatic weapon. You can also rape women. I can offer you a way to die that is fun and look like a real life video game.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBffA-15GSQ
Delena iris on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 6:16 pm
You are a divorce man, you have been ass fucked by the divorce courts, you want revenge, I can put you in one of these and you can go out there and kill all the women and judges that you want.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBffA-15GSQ
Isabelle jean on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 2:01 am
Why these are not allowed for city use. It looks like a nice compromise in a world tight on oil and natural ressources.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCU1NDOIXXA
Denis Trudel on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 2:32 am
Their piece of shit smart cities that nobody want to live in it this is why these are not allowed for city use as they are. Just make sure that you have mirrors, front lights, rear lights and turning lights. I know why, people might like them and it will bankrupt Ford and GM. Cannot have that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCU1NDOIXXA
Fucking garbage civilization managed by idiots. I can see the Karens right there: they are not save, if you have a collision you will be injured and it will cost money to the government and taxes payers. Stupid loser managing earth and running it into ground at each occasions they have.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCU1NDOIXXA
Isabelle yellne on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 2:41 am
I can see the EPA, right there, complaining that they don’t pass the emission tests, this is why they cannot be allowed for city use. Fuck the EPA and fuck the planet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCU1NDOIXXA
Isabelle jean on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 2:59 am
Watch them failed again. Too many problem with earth. I made comment about that. Watch them failed and reboot earth again. My advice is to prepare the protection bubble for the chosen one with transportation toys. Most likely they will reboot the same reality with the same crappy flesh body with a low life span, no memory, no advanced mathematical calculation abilities.
Isabelle jean on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 3:10 am
I told you earth reality will need to be rebooted. the entropic degradation of steel is too fast to make it an long lasted reality. Their solution to fix a badly designed reality is people oppression and smart cities. They basically don’t have a solution to fix earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watc
h?v=Y0H4P9lBHNc
Isabelle jean on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 3:11 am
Bad cut and past.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0H4P9lBHNc
Yellen fernand on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 4:09 am
This is what the fear the most and it is happening again. Some people prefer to die free then living in total control and oppression. They worked really hard at manipulating people into using communication for resolving issues instead of using violence. The past is repeating itself again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbliCmt0QqA
Denis Trudel on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 4:56 am
We will not be allowed to own one and drive one in the city, but it is probably what they will use inside their smart city to maintained the infrastructures such as water pumping station, street lights. They are already planning away for the death of the auto industry and this will replace the big pickup truck.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/lZiT_uEtZzw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWUL3x7dkYc
They will fail again, I can see it from here in my mind.
Death knows death, I can see wherever he looks.
Alan gendron on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 5:25 am
I can see their whole future plans from here. They will force people to move into smart cities. They will create red light district like Pattaya to raise the sexual appetite of men like me. Living in a communal setting will increase the chance of sex with random partners. They will try to create a superior race of higher IQ people by having men like me fuck random whore. Men like me will start to revolt and destroy the infrastructure.
They will fail again and again and again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LEtheFd014
Denis Trudel on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 5:36 am
They will let the Whites Europeans rot and die alone in misery, as there are seen, rightly so, as a inferior specie populated with girly men incapable of raping women. Jews will also be exterminated as they are seen as lacking any moral compass and unfit. I agree also about the Jews being undesirable beings and deserving extinction.
Isabelle jean on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 5:45 am
This look like an Noah ark also. Only a few select humans will allowed on the ark. They will be transported somewhere else outside of earth.
The ark is designed around the principle of communal living and this will encourage sex with multiple random partners. The higher quality breeders will have the best living arrangement and live in luxury cabins on the ship.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nneoSxAipU
Isavelle marie on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 5:49 am
The Noah ark for the chosen procreators. This is for the best of the best procreators.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQTk_3Su7OA
Denis Trudel on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 6:06 am
If I go visit these ships, this is what I will see with my own eyes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQTk_3Su7OA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9apdAbckhDo
Ellene jamari on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 6:43 am
I have trouble to believe this is real. This look more like a survey and expedition ship than a cruise ship. 22:37 look like an expedition room where the important decision are taken.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qVfnqBCXM8
Isabelle jean on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 7:16 am
Looks like a tone down scientific library at 5:54 with big desks to make calculation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=un17vkOoKWg
Real Tremvle on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 7:30 am
I have trouble to believe this is real. It has some features you would find inside an expedition survey ship but with luxuries. The somber decor that is there to help relax, concentrate and think. I have trouble to believe this is real.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=un17vkOoKWg
Serena jean on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 7:42 am
Thank GOD I am old and hopefully I will die of old age soon. I will start to panic only when I will see a new too regrowth a new tooth to replace the one that is almost all gone because of tooth decay that I have.
Isavbelle jean on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 7:47 am
Thank god I am old and hopefully I will die of old age soon. I will start to panic only when I will see a new tooth regrowth to replace the one that is almost all gone because of tooth decay. Thanks god my legs are shit, that gives me hope that I will die of old age.
Alain laporte on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 8:04 am
I have about 6 to 8 hours of pain in my jaw below where the decayed tooth is, following by a 1.5 days of no pain or almost no pain and the cycle restart at new.
Fernand Lalonde on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 9:03 am
I have explained all of this already. We live on the top of mountains of the old world. Water receded a little but it is not much. My guess is that if there is another flood, it will flood the earth completely and turn earth into a waterworld.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6xPRyZolCg
Bertand jane on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 9:06 am
Living on top of mountains, means colder air and snow. Living in the valley means hotter air and less snow. We moved into the colder areas of the earth that are the top of the mountains to escape the flood.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 9:20 am
I told you their smart cities will fail again. There is too many issues with earth. A reboot will be needed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmbBzHmLkYM
Isabelle jean on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 9:24 am
Nobody of quality wants to live in their fucking smart cities. They will choose dead instead or they will sabotage them from the inside. Quality people will choose death and only the stupid people will accept to move in their smart cities. Without quality people, the maintenance needed to keep these smart cities alive will not be done and they will collapse. I think it is pretty obvious all of this.
Too many problems with earth. It is a short life span reality.
Hekine rapporta on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 9:27 am
I stand by this the chosen ones will be extracted, or given a protection bubble to watch earth population die.
Nena nemos on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 9:29 am
If you are a chosen one, I think there will be signs in your personal life telling you that you are a chosen ones.
Nadine jamal on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 9:36 am
There you go. Everything is there
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oU7aclkYmEY
Mare lamarde on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 9:39 am
Earth is so fucked beyond what is imaginable. I made multiple comments about that.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 4:32 pm
I understand now why she makes fun of Venn diagrammes. It is a useless mathematical concepts teach in high school that has no practical uses other then in the business to lie and manipulate people into believe that you saying some important and meaningful. Venn diagrams are not used in engineering because they are a useless mathematical concept with no real life application. She is making fun of mathematical concept that is basically useless and should not be taught in school at all. There is a lot of crap in math that have no real life application. They should be removed out of math curriculum.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUg_VmPen_k
Denis Trudel on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 4:43 pm
There is one mathematical field that I refused to learn more about and use in real life: probability and statistics. I don’t consider this field as real mathematic. I consider that it was created to manipulate people opinions.
Yellen James on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 4:46 pm
They use probability and statistic in quality control. Apparently it is not delivering on its promise when you look at the number of recalls Ford had to do in the last couple of years.
I consider that a insult to mathematics to have included probability and static in mathematics.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 4:54 pm
We will assume that this following process is following the the normal law of probability.
This is where I have an issue. They assume something that they are unable to prove it is real. They assume they know the behavior of the system and it follows the normal law of probability. Total BS.
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loi_normale
This piece of shit bell curve.
Helen arie on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 5:26 pm
At least with calculus and linear algebra I understand what they are trying to achieve.
Probabilities and statistics are a completely bogus mathematical field.
Like I said earth is so fucked, that is beyond the imagination of anyone to imagine how fuck we are. Only men like me understand how fuck we really are.
Yellen jamal on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 6:00 pm
When you are unable to build a mathematical model of a certain observable phenomenon, you go into the default mathematical model that is the normal law of probability.
Earth is a limited lifespan reality. It will die eventually. People have no idea how truly fuck we are as a planet.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 19th Oct 2025 9:03 pm
The normal law of probability that is about measuring the area under an curve and calling a probability. Of course they had to use calculus to calculate the probability using the normal law of probability.
I will summarize briefly to you advanced math, it is to measure the area under a curve or measure the slope of a curve at a specific point.
You guys are so fucked it is actually funny.
Ulysee maklrech on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 2:21 am
I would need to see that with my eyes. I don’t believe that are well trained and are probably demotivated. I have trouble to see how you will build a motivated army when young people have no emotional attachment to their nation or life general.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8NuVeaMFZI
Regis legean on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 2:34 am
Where are the training videos on how to secure a high rise building. Including securing the electrical breakers room, the fire exits, the elevators control room.