It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Jermeiha babe on Fri, 17th Oct 2025 8:08 pm
I am not sure about this show. It looks like something that was made to raise people awareness that living in a community is better then living alone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATv2uwG2_U0
Karim Heline on Fri, 17th Oct 2025 8:17 pm
I am pretty sure they will failed again. I would need a car so I can drive around and confirm my suspicions. I suspect it is really bad out there, and I should be able to see it rapidly just be driving around. I suspect they will have to reboot again very soon.
My advice is still the same, prepare the protection bubble with the transportations toys I asked.
Sylvie Jean on Fri, 17th Oct 2025 8:29 pm
Flesh body life span is too short. By the time you start understand how earth works: engineering, electricity, chemistry, flesh beings, governance, you are already 60 year old and ready to die. To build the utopia they would like to build, they will need to raise the life span of the human body at around 200 year old.
There is way too many problems with earth reality. a reboot and improvements will be needed.
Sylvie jean on Fri, 17th Oct 2025 8:39 pm
Radio shark was used to introduce personal computer in Québec. My first personal computer was a Tandy, not this model, but it was a Tandy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WULQoeoi0E
Typical green screen with ascii 128 characters available. It was basically useless but that was not the goal to produce an useful machine, to goal was to slowly introduce personal computer into people life.
I called that the theory of evolution of computers that mimic the theory of evolution of life of Darwin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WULQoeoi0E
People don’t understand with what we are dealing with here.
Isabelle jean on Fri, 17th Oct 2025 8:45 pm
Too many problems with earth, flesh body is inadequate: life span too short, long term permanent memory inexistent, advance mental calculation abilities almost nil.
If you know where to look, you can easily see that earth is a total failure and looks like a botch jobs created by an inexperience teenager.
Jean marie on Fri, 17th Oct 2025 9:06 pm
Sexual reproduction also look like a botch job. Who wants to fuck a women when her asshole is 2 cm away from her vagina. It is fucking disgusting. They fuck up so much, that they had to turn women asshole into a something sexually attractive by promoting anal sex as something pleasurable and normal.
Too many problems with earth, a reboot will be needed eventually.
Yellen amrie on Fri, 17th Oct 2025 9:10 pm
To create a long term civilization based on high tech, the life span of the flesh body needs to be increased, probably something are 500 years old life span. Conservation of mass, or natural ressources depletion is also a big issue limiting the life span of earth reality.
Too many fucking problems.
Ulysee jamie on Fri, 17th Oct 2025 9:26 pm
If they reboot the same reality, it means it is not theirs and they don’t know how to improve it. It means that they are losers.
In the movie the matrix, they said it was the 6 iterations, I can believe that.
Isavbelle marie on Fri, 17th Oct 2025 11:25 pm
It is normal that fertility decreases. It is caused by entropic degradation. This is what happen when you build a reality around the concept of death, it affects everything including the fertility of humans. This is the end of earth, a reboot will be needed or it is the last cycle of humans and life on it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfiYnbc8Nbo
Earth reality is about to die because earth is built around the concept death. This is really obvious when your fix your own car in a Nordic nation.
Build a reality around the concept of life with no death could lead to an eternal reality that can never be stopped or killed. As a safety measure, you introduce a safety switch around the reality, I suspect that was one of the reason earth was built around the concept of death. Very few people will leave earth and live eternally.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 17th Oct 2025 11:35 pm
I don’t need to be on earth to kill and torture the Jews and Europeans. I think it is more fun if you see them die and suffer while you are inside of earth in a flesh body than being outside. At the end, I will get what I want.
Signed Denis Trudel aka death owner of the earth
Denis Trudel on Fri, 17th Oct 2025 11:41 pm
This is ain’t regret. Go read the lyric of the song at 0:28.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhQxd49znzs&list=RDVhQxd49znzs&start_radio=1
My name is death
isavelle jean on Fri, 17th Oct 2025 11:44 pm
I will put you in the ground like fucking animals, just because I hate you and I can.
Alain Gendron on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 1:09 am
I was smoking a cigarette outside and could not hear insects noises. Temperature is -0.5 Celsius. You finally were able to find competent programmers to fix your insecte4s algorithm to make the scientific literature about insects.
Are they going to all die during the winter, or they will come back during spring making noises again.
You finally start to adresse the millions the discrepancy between your scientific literature and the real world. Must have been difficult task to find a competent programmer to fix this defect inside your insects algorithm.
Stupid low IQ cock suckers and your botch earth reality with your ugly female and her asshole and vagina almost touching earth other and making her unfuckable.
Jean marie on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 1:16 am
What about the birds in the winter not dying in surviving hard winter conditions and violating the law of conservation of energy. You need to fix that also. Where are you going to find competent programmer to fix this bug also.
You have a lot of work to do to fix all the discrepancies between the universities scientific literature and the real world.
I am pretty sure you are short on competent programmers or the reality does not belong to you and you stole if from some else, so you don’t have access to the programming and cannot fix the bugs.
Yellen jean on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 1:30 am
Why do you destroy the tooth of people and giving no chance for a new tooth to regrowth. As long as there is pain, there is life, there is a chance for a new tooth to growth again.
Why do you butcher people like that and giving them only pain and no real chances permanent healing.
Isavelle jean on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 1:32 am
You will have to reboot don’t you cock sucker. You know this reality will not live eternally. I know it, you know it also.
Denis Jamarque on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 1:38 am
Go into every hospital of the world and kill new born babies and fertile women. I guarantee you that you will see something unique happening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z-YCsrqlLM
Regina Calgary on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 1:49 am
The fucking Chinese language. It look so complicated and impractical that you have to wonder if it was not done on purpose to keep them down and slow down their technological development and keep them in a state of poverty.
You really have to wonder what was the real purpose when you look at certain language.
Alain lamarre on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 2:08 am
I call that choosing your fuck toy for the year. Only extremely rich people can play this game.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdSSPF1S-Uc
ALain gendron on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 2:43 am
The only way to have a decent life on earth is to do what I did. Small house no car, no kids, no wife no girlfriend and living the most simple life style you can. As a man you can have a somehow decent life. Otherwise you are completely fuck and expose yourself to a life of pain and misery.
Charles Manson understood this also. This is why he preferred to live in prison instead of the outside. This cuck sucker knew much much more than he was telling us.
Jane marie on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 2:49 am
Charles Mason understood also that the only men that had a chance to leave earth were the single men like me. Everybody else if fucking fuck, you are married you are fuck and stay on earth, you are a women you are fuck and stay on earth, you have kids you are fuck and stay on earth, you are rich you are fuck and stay on earth and so on.
Alain lamarre on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 2:55 am
Look at her facial expressions, the fucking whore wants to cry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-Ph4vsB6I4
Jean marie on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 3:09 am
This is the integration of the banking system with the governance system where the banking institutions share your personal datas with the government.
They want their fucking smart cities no matter. They want a one world government with one location centralized datas system for each citizen. This is just a another step toward it a one world government.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=faNTLeFSgzI
Don’t worry they will fail again and again and again.
Liliana Marcel on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 3:11 am
Made comments about that. Too many issues with earth reality: flesh body, conservation of mass, sexual reproduction, matrix of solid only modifiable by heat, and so on.
Andrean Maria on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 3:18 am
We are going to ass fuck them big time. Just wait and see.
Alain jean on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 3:24 am
This is warning to them telling them that kids are not untouchable and are fair targets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mC_LFXx8KRA
Jran matia on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 3:32 am
The target audience of this video is not the population of earth, but it is for them the reptiles. It is a message for the reptiles: kids are not untouchable and are fair targets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mC_LFXx8KRA
Denis Trudel on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 3:49 am
The direct implication of this is that if kids are not untouchable targets so are the new born babies and the fertile women.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mC_LFXx8KRA
Isavelle lanthier on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 3:50 am
Fuck around and find out could resume the actual situation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mC_LFXx8KRA
Phoenis Bird on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 4:00 am
This is a message for the reptiles, new born babies are not untouchable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Im3nyBgvEE
Jean Marie on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 4:09 am
See comment above
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMHK4jGsQf4
Alsin maria on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 4:43 am
done on purpose to keep them in a state of poverty and ignorance, french and English are what I called scientific language. They are build to explain advanced science such as engineering. They are linked to advance science.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQKsU8mtZns
Yellen jamal on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 4:59 am
As I said before, few people understand with what we are dealing with here. They see us as slaves.
Alain gendron on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 5:04 am
This is what I mean by french and English built around science and math. The letter x is often used as an unknown variable. It is impossible to do that with the Chinese language as far as unknow. They are starting with a disadvantage right there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PyfXmGGrpY
martime wellen on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 5:13 am
see comment above
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riZ5hZUOlk8
Danial laprote on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 5:25 am
Their goal from what I can see, was always to use the Chinese as cheap slave labor. After the Chinese, it will be the Indians and Bangladesh.
Isavelle lanthier on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 5:31 am
As I said, people don’t understand with what we are dealing with. People are unable to imagine and come to term that such devilish beings can exist.
yellen aria on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 5:35 am
I suspect that the real reason why they are keeping the Chinese in a state of permanent childish amazement is to stop workers revolution that would collapse the international supply chain.
As I said, people don’t understand with what we are dealing with. People are unable to imagine and come to term that such devilish beings can exist.
Ulaine elaria on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 5:38 am
Unless I am missing critical information because I don’t have a car, they will fail and have to reboot.
Alain jackques on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 5:55 am
If they could kill me they would have done a long time ago by giving me an heart attack or something similar illness. The fact is that I have some kind of energy field around me protecting me against them. I am basically untouchable while on earth. I am not an human but some kind of dimensional traveller.
Isabelle jean on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 6:22 am
The china wall is probably an ancient flood wall. By checking the elevation you might be able to prove that.
cyrill laplante on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 6:26 am
look like an ancient empty lake surrounded by moutains.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wixujwtiLdM
jerima babe on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 6:30 am
Living on top of the mountains of the old world like I said. Water receded a little bit but not enough to make a big difference.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShuLvLcOU0M
Jere babve on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 6:58 am
I have trouble to believe that some people live full time in caves. I don’t know why, it just does not compute for me. I believe this is a simulation and nobody lives in underground caves. Underground caves would provide good shelter against a long ice age.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmCVrhXxNmU
It still does not compute for me that some people live full time in underground caves.
Denis tRUDELL on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 7:02 am
I am not convince that high IQ people would want to go live in underground caves. I think they would chose death instead. Only stupid people will voluntary go live in caves just to stay alive a little bit longer. I think it is just a fucking simulation.
Heline jean on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 7:16 am
There is something wrong with you if you are willing to go live in underground caves. There is something wrong with you if you consider the flesh body as a good vehicle worth saving at any costs.
jamdie lamarie on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 7:23 am
None of this shit matter. Earth reality has too many problems and will need to be rebooted with improvements. I explaind that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFIG6k4B3zg
Isabelle jean on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 7:37 am
Is this real or a fucking joke. Looks like a joke to me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bna4Q09rDPc
Aland jamal on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 7:49 am
Why not surrounding the building, cutting off the electricity, water and welding the doors closed. Let them die on their own. What kind of crap is that. This is not how you kill millions of people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lk5MCVu0eiU
Alain reporte on Sat, 18th Oct 2025 7:55 am
What about killing people living on an island by cutting off the electricity and blowing up the bridges. Do you have units specialized in that. You guys know how to kill millions of people.