It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Heline graham on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 2:37 am
Where are the training videos to secure a area of the size of Harvard university and keep a siege for a whole week.
Nathalie Lamarche on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 2:57 am
Where are your scientific unit made of PHD in chemistry, medicine, biology, mechanical, electronics, electrical engineering to cover my lack of deep knowledge in these fields.
Also need an accounting and finance unite specialized at reading and understanding balance sheet of mutual fund, banks, credit card compagnies.
Bertand Jean on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 3:09 am
This is gay as fuck.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHaUb3NiAoI
Rejean laporte on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 3:12 am
You know what this look like. A training program to help young men put structure in their life and teach them what their father did not teach them. Look like a school program for high school student that are unable to put a coherent structure in their life. Does not look like a real army program.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHaUb3NiAoI
Karen matrix on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 3:21 am
Look like a father taking care of his children and teaching them the skills needed to be an obedient working slave.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHaUb3NiAoI&t=251s
You people don’t understand with what we are dealing with here.
Regis Trudelle on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 3:30 am
There is no sexual gang bang in these kind of setup where women voluntary open their legs and get fuck by all the man on board. Not one instance of sexual gang bang has been reported at all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UYJim92SFc
Carlos Espernze on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 3:39 am
Noah ark. Same as cruise ship.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPJz3nxwsb8
Ferland jamal on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 3:47 am
A training program to help young men put structure in their life and teach them what their father did not teach them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvbJ2Vct1VU
Bertand lamonde on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 3:53 am
It is an expedition kit for people surveying new lands. This has nothing to do with army and killing. I use to have something similar what I was doing hiking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgFNqdqoPVw
Isabelle Lanthier on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 4:01 am
I gave up on the survival back pack. It is too heavy and does not really help in a survival situation. I used to have a really sophisticated survival back pack and I gave up on the idea of surviving. I realized that death is the way out of earth and trying to stay alive at any cost is for losers.
Elain James on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 4:15 am
As I get older, I am starting to appreciate the physical pain of ageing. It remind me that very soon I will be dead and out of this world forever.
It is not dead you have to fear, it is life as Charles Manson would say.
Helene marie on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 4:19 am
People of earth just have no idea how fuck they are. There will be no smart cities because men like me will destroy them from the inside.
When they talk about smart cities, they never tell us how they obtain the voluntary participation of men like me.
Isabelle jean on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 6:52 am
Floating between dimensions, I am ready for extraction.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 7:00 am
I am ok for extraction.
alain marcotte on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 7:15 am
Ready for flesh body detachment and extraction.
Isaveeel jean on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 8:57 am
Have you ever float between two dimensions? I did, it feels like you are dead but you know you are not dead. It like transporting a image of yourself around but without being attached to a flesh body. You live inside an image of yourself instead of a real flesh body.
This is transitory step before a full dimensional shift into another dimension. How do I know that, it is a good question.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 9:01 am
Like I said I don’t need to be on earth to kill the Jews and White Europeans. I can do it from another dimension.
Alain jean on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 9:04 am
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth.
Cold Records Fall Across Siberia And Mongolia; Taste Of Winter In B.C.; Snow For Tromsø; Hurricane Dud; + Climate Scientist Debunks Sea Level Rise Fears; New Study: Cold, Not Heat, Is The Real Killer
I told you to not fuck with me and me weapons.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 9:08 am
You see, me, I am a valuable being, I understand how earth reality is built and I have advanced knowledge about how to build a reality. So I will live, the rest of you will die.
Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth
Denis rabotain on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 10:55 am
If they have me, they can kill everyone on earth. We don’t need earth, we have me.
Earth is so fucked it is actually funny. As long as I live, we have saved the knowledge about earth, earth will live with me, we don’t need earth.
Isabelle Jean on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 10:57 am
How do you preserve the knowledge about earth. You give me eternal life. It is that fucking simple.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 11:00 am
The whole planet is expendable if I have eternal life. It is cruel, but that what it is.
Denis Grudel on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 12:05 pm
0:27 this is an old lake. The water level went that high during the last flood. Water has receded a little bit but not much compare to before the flood. The news flood will finish planet earth and its population.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6YkbT5QAtk
Isavelle Jean on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 12:09 pm
As long as I live eternally the memories of earth will live. The rest of earth population can die.
Ulysee laporet on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 12:20 pm
Go look at Florida. It is basically a swamp and the underground water table is probably really high, this is why the whole state is swamp. Another flood and Florida will the underwater again.
Isabve marie on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 1:11 pm
I don’t believe in underground DUMB. Most likely they were flooded during the last flood and are unusable. There is probably and aquatic hybrid living on earth, half human half aquatic.
Alain lapierre on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 2:40 pm
That does not prove much of anything to me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qu9TkGV-kMY
I don’t believe in underground DUMB. Most likely they were flooded during the last flood and are unusable. There is probably and aquatic hybrid living on earth, half human half aquatic.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 2:44 pm
Underground DUMB don’t compute for me. I am unable to imagine people living in underground cave, does not compute for me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rc7zRVtx1Bk
Denis Trudel on Mon, 20th Oct 2025 11:51 pm
You are fucked. As long as I live eternally the memories of earth will live. The rest of earth population can die. In order for me to say alive eternally, I need to absorbe all the energy of earth and transferred it into me. Only by killing everything on earth can I become eternal.
I am kidding, I am just making this up.
Isabelle jean on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 1:07 am
You see the knowledge about earth has to survive eternally as it can be used to build or improve future realities. Some people have to live eternally so this knowledge is not lost forever.
Earth reality will be destroyed and the energy of all earth will be given to one being to make him eternal.
Yellen lamarche on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 1:30 am
Earth is a reality built around the concept of death. This kind of knowledge has to live eternally. Some people will have to live eternally so this knowledge is never lost. Earth will have be destroyed to make these people eternal beings.
Isabelle jean on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 1:57 am
I told you that Europeans are losers and we share nothing in common with them. It is two different genetic lineage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yamOEvY-QIc
Denis Trudel on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 2:11 am
Back in the days they understood that earth was a pathetic shit hole with no future. They would design truck like these, because they knew the truth about earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yamOEvY-QIc
Jeremiah babe on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 2:25 am
I told you the Europeans are pathetic losers. Better not to engage with them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRNAWMn3zOo
Isabelle jean on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 3:07 am
There is too many problems with earth. Actions are being taken to save the knowledge of earth as I explained above.
Isavel marie on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 3:10 am
I doubt another reboot of earth will be allowed.
Isabelle jean on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 3:14 am
There are already plans in place to preserve earth knowledge, including eternal beings.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 3:44 am
The reason why they created Venn diagram is too teach young people basic associations skills so they are capable of performing repeating manual manufacturing assembly jobs. Everything is about slavery on this planet and training obedient slaves.
Yellen lamarchne on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 5:07 am
one way to kill a slavery planet like earth is to kill fertile women and new born babies.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 5:44 am
Unless I am mistaken or miss reading things, all the knowledge of earth has been saved, all the science book have been copied and transferred out of earth, every TV show has been copied and transferred out of earth, what is missing is to give eternal life to the chosen ones and transferred them out of earth.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 5:58 am
We have everything including the programming code that John Deere is using for its tractors. We have a copie of everything.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 7:06 am
It is pretty obvious that they are threatening to starve to death the South Americans nations if they refused to obey the will of the US of if they refused to join globalism. Pretty obvious that they want to use Cuba as example of their power, to square and obtain compliance of the South America nations. The target audience of some part of this debate is not the American people by some unknown power in South America.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9cdRpE4KKc
Espera elraze on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 7:09 am
They actually look like the are panicking and not really in control of anything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9cdRpE4KKc
Denis Trudel on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 7:43 am
We should have let Europe die including the Whites Europeans. This was a big mistake.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w04k5sPBVNE
Isavelle jean on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 7:45 am
We should have finished them off while we could.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w04k5sPBVNE
Nadine Jean on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 9:42 am
They killed Kennedy and ruin Nixon presidency with Watergate for threatening South America like that. That would be the most plausible explanation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9cdRpE4KKc
Wellen jean on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 10:10 am
I will tell you the fucking future: they will kill everyone on earth, they are fed up with this BS see comments above.
They can stand it anymore.
Isavbelle jean on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 10:24 am
They are going to pull the plug on earth. I was not totally sure of that but after watching this I am getting more and more convince of that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9cdRpE4KKc
They just need their chosen ones.
Ulaine Jean on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 10:30 am
I would have pull the plug a long time ago. I would have not rebuilt Europe after the war, I would have let them die. I would have pull the plug on the Jews a long time a ago, same with UK.
Denis rudel on Tue, 21st Oct 2025 10:33 am
They were planning to pull the plug on earth since I am born. I am just here to witness the end of earth.