It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Marc Caron on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 5:16 pm
What a fucking joke earth technologies are. People just have no idea.
What about your fucking mechanical relay with contacts turning black, that must be filed regularly. Another shit invention of earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5Kp0WEGawY
Hekene Marcotte on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 5:28 pm
What did I say, earth is a matrix of solid only modifiable by heat hold together by friction and gravity.
Using heat to open a electrical contact. Using heat to modifie the state of electrical circuit by opening the circuit. See at 6:27. I told you that I participated at the creation of earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqEu9t8HwW0
Marco Poalo on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 5:30 pm
See at 9:20. See comment above,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqEu9t8HwW0
Isavel jean on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 5:39 pm
What did I say, earth is a matrix of solid only modifiable by heat and hold together by gravity and friction. A nail in the wood is hold in place by friction, it is that simple.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRBpqM6ESrg
I fucking told all of you, we have all of you by the balls.
Yellen James on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 5:57 pm
Using money as a tool to manage earth, instead of using energy as a tool to manage earth. See at 7:20. Earth is doom anyway, no matter what system (money or energy) is used to manage it. We fucked you over really good on this one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbeJIwF1pVY
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/google-deal-nextera-will-restart-iowa-nuclear-plant-2029
Yellen James on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 6:07 pm
There are invisible beings outside of earth realm that have studied everything about earth. They have send on earth dimensional traveller to help them. Pretty obvious when you look at the video links I am putting in my comments.
We are about to fuck earth over as it has never been done before.
Helene marie on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 6:23 pm
The negro, the only one that you see driving garbage trucks. You never see, an Asian, aa Indian, a Latino, a Pakistani. Always Whites and Negros doing the dirty jobs.
Regis latourne on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 6:39 pm
I am talking about the real Negro, not the Somalian or other similar shit skin.
Ulaine Lamorche on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 6:50 pm
Canada and the fucking Indians from India. Fucking parasitic leeches.
Yellen Latouche on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 6:52 pm
I cannot comment on everything I see.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/25rZ0hZr2Hs
Just give me money if you want me to do more advanced studies on earth technologies. I also need a better flesh body.
Alain Lamarre on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 6:56 pm
It should not be called entropy, it should be called death. Earth is a reality build around death as a cohesive element. This is why earth will fail again, again and again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxL2HoqLbyA
Yellen lafarge on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 7:00 pm
I have talked about that. Water is a transport vehicle for dust and dirt. This is caused by the conservation of mass algorithm. I have talked about that numerous times. Earth is doom to fail eventually.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XiUOBdEUqjY
ulaine elaine on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 7:04 pm
Earth is finite system. Nothing get lost, it just move from one location to another one, depending on the transport mechanism used, water, wind, heat.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 7:07 pm
We fucked you over good, don’t we. We made sure that everything you build, we eventually be destroyed. You are so fucked it is actually funny.
Death knows death, death knows how death act on a closed system.
Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Isavelle jean on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 7:10 pm
Who owns earth, death, death is the owner of earth. The enlighten ones understand that. We fucked you over so good, by putting death as the owner of earth.
Sylvain legace on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 7:12 pm
Prove to me that you are more powerful than death and refill the oil wells to recharge earth with heat.
Alain laporte on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 7:22 pm
Prove to me that you are more powerful than death and refill the oil wells to recharge earth with heat. We fucked you so good, and you know it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Rb26HowKv4
Alain jean on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 7:39 pm
Only the people that have participated to the creation of death can understand death. If I understand death so well, does it mean I help created death with others.
This shit is so funny when you have deep knowledge about how earth was created.
ISavel slane on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 7:43 pm
I challenge you to prove to me that you are more powerful than me and refill the oil wells.
Yellne james on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 7:47 pm
You are missing the transformer. It is an incomplete schematic. But it is ok, I know that earth is populated with heavily retarded people.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Nhr9giQXj5o
Denis Trudel on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 8:10 pm
This shit is so fucking funny. The moon is not white as usual, it is of slight reddish tone, similar to blood diluted in water. The front porch lights of some of my neighbor is red not white.
Is red the color of blood. I think so.
Some dying is coming soon.
Denis Trudel,aka death, owner of the earth.
Regis lebaume on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 8:17 pm
Why would you put a mechanical relay and a triac inside the same electronic project. Because triac are unreliable and represent a fire hazard. I simple don’t trust earth electronics components.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nyk025NkW_M
Triac reaching 70 Celsius when running 10 amps to it. Piece of crap. Earth is such a fucking joke.
Ulaine James on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 8:19 pm
You activate the relay before when there is no current running through it to avoid a spark and then you turn the triac on. This is how I do it. Simply cannot trust earth electronics components.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nyk025NkW_M
Yellen marcuys on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 8:28 pm
Earth mechanical engineering. Using a second order differential equation to modelized vibrations because we are unable to solve higher order differential equations. This planet is such a fucking joke.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLaFAKnaRJU
Using linear equation wherever possible because they are easy to solve compare to real complex differential equations.
You people have just no fucking idea how bad earth is and how primitive earth mathematics really are.
Isabelle jean on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 8:35 pm
Periodic functions, especially sinusoidal functions. Again, it is to make equations easier to solve compare to more complex functions. Always going for a short cut because earth mathematics are shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvfNBvq4vjQ
This is funny. You people just have no fucking idea.
Jean lamarche on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 8:40 pm
Why are we not all dead already is still a mystery to me. See comments above.
Alain gendron on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 8:46 pm
It is the same mathematical concepts they are using over and over for almost everything, integral equations, differential equations and liner equations. Linear algebra is just mathematic made to solve linear equations. There is nothing magic about linear algebra and matriciel calculations.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFVAaUcOm4I
At the end of my engineering courses, this became really obvious to me.
Tremelve jamal on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 8:55 pm
Chemistry and their PH measurement either acidic, basique or neutral. Similar to the duality concept of 0 and 1 find in computer programming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FM2MpMbV0rw
0000 in computer programming = acid in chemistry
1 in computer programming = base in chemistry
They love this duality principle such as black and white, acide and basic, 0 and 1 in programming and so on.
Ulaine marcotte on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 9:00 pm
They love this duality concept and use it everywhere they ca:
black and white
acide and basic
0 and 1 in programming
up and down
+ and – in electronics
male and female
hate and love
pretty and ugly
tall and short
compression and tension in mechanical stress analysis
Alain lamarre on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 9:05 pm
They love this duality concept and use it everywhere they can:
in fluid analysis + for positive pressure and – for vacuum pressure.
in stress analysis + for compression and – for tension
They have organism when they think about duality.
Isabelle jean on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 9:07 pm
In chemistry + for proton and – for electron. You see where I am going with that.
+ for credit in accounting and – for debit in accounting
They love this duality concept and use it everywhere they can:
Denis Trudel on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 9:09 pm
I came to study earth and I did.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Yellen laporte on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 9:22 pm
They also love the concept of % when duality is not good enough.
the water tank is at 50%
your portfolio performance is 5%
the valve is opened at 50%
Yellen marcus on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 9:24 pm
Look at the dictonary is full of word to express duality
male – female
cat -dog
up -down
on – off
tall – short
strong – weak
dead – alive
black – white
up – down
left -right
Alain marcus on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 9:28 pm
They even have skin color duality. At the end of one spectrum are white people at the other end of the spectrum are black people. Then you have brown that is the middle between whites and black skin.
They love and are proud of this concept of duality.
Ulaina jean on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 9:33 pm
the human body is build around the concept of duality. Left and right eye. Left and right legs and so on. Human body is symmetrical left and right. All animal also have a symmetrical body, left and right.
They cannot get enough of this duality
yellen laforge on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 9:37 pm
duality of ennemis , Russia against the us. The human brain is designed to handle mostly duality and nothing else. It makes people easier to control.
You people don’t understand with what we are dealing with here.
Jean mare on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 9:40 pm
clean and dirty energy. Hydrocarbone is dirty energy, wind and solar are clean energy.
They love this concept of duality.
Yellne jamal on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 9:40 pm
clean and dirty energy. Hydrocarbone is dirty energy, wind and solar are clean energy.
The human brain is designed to handle mostly duality and nothing else. It makes people easier to control.
You people don’t understand with what we are dealing with here.
Yellen marie on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 9:47 pm
It is a lot of people to kill, I don’t know if people understand how much of a big task it is.
Jeremoe laforge on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 10:08 pm
They gave Whites people their privileges by transferring the technological and mathematical knowledge to them first. I made comments about how Whites languages connect almost directly with mathematics. Now they want to remove Whites people privileges and give them to the group or the diversity.
Each time they make a decision, they make things worse, every fucking time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGH0DGBQ0sQ
It is guaranteed that everyone will die on earth.
Yelle amaria on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 10:18 pm
They gave too much privileges to Whites people or they transferred to much knowledge to them. They became scared and started flooding Whites nations with immigrants to stop Whites people control and influences over the world. They basically made a mistake and were trying to correct it. They were trying to demoralize Whites people and stop them from controlling too much of earth. Invasion of earth would have been much more difficult to go through if Whites people were controlling the whole world.
Uleaine matrix on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 10:21 pm
They don’t want a White King controlling a nation. They know this will be a danger to them. They fear Whites about all.
Yellen amrcus on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 10:24 pm
They needed to reboot earth and they needed a superior race for the technological transfert. Whites people were chosen for that purpose. This is a risky strategy as Whites people could turn against them. So they had to demotivate whites people.
Alain laporete on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 10:31 pm
Whites people were chosen to install communism on their behalf. It did not work as expected. Gen X became a slacker generation uninterested rea by improving the world. It was one apocalypse after another that gen X had to endure. They naturally became slacker.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V145jHm7-mA
They never talk about gen X in the media.
Alain lamarche on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 10:34 pm
They were feeding us apocalyptic garbage like that day after day. Gen X gave up and they decided to not care.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4eIKx2LEPU
Yellen marcotte on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 10:37 pm
I think Kennedy was killed for this reason. Too much apocalyptic garbage and it was ruining gen X. Without gen X willing to get involve, their plan failed
Jean marie on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 10:57 pm
He is right about madmax becoming an role model for some of us. Especially the second movie. Right there, they lost the control they had over the gen X. Madmax the man enjoying misery and solitude.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4eIKx2LEPU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6ecXy3S9Dw
There are reason why they are not talking about gen X. They are so fucked it is actually funny.
Ulysee thor on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 10:58 pm
He is right about madmax becoming an role model for some of us. Especially the second movie. Right there, they lost the control they had over the gen X. Madmax the man enjoying misery and solitude.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V145jHm7-mA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6ecXy3S9Dw
There are reason why they are not talking about gen X. They are so fucked it is actually funny.
Jean lemire on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 11:03 pm
I was 14 year old when Madmax 2 came out. He made it cool to stay single and not getting married. they were fucked right there and they probably knew it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6ecXy3S9Dw