It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Isabelle jean on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 11:06 pm
Blade runner another dystopia movie telling us that they were no futur for us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3r24GXa3HA
This whole earth shit is so funny when you dig deep.
Isavelle jemarie on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 11:12 pm
Terminator another dystopian movie telling us that we had no futur. It was one shit after another growing up as a gen X.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrsspTTpApI
Arnold made it cool to rebel against the established order, same as madmax. Whites birth rate properly came down as we were raised and realized that the telling to the establishment to fuck off was cool.
Uname laporete on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 11:19 pm
Broue another tv show showing slackers laughing at the established order while drinking beers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-U9FLqw_Hg
Gen X is synonyme with rebellion against the established order. This is why they never talked about us.
Denis trudel on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 11:21 pm
Making fun of the established order and rebelling. Bunch of slacker drinking beers and sabotaging earth civilization from the inside. This is what broue was all about
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpnZlWKgS4o
Yeleen amrie on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 11:25 pm
People should make a deeper analysis of what gen X went through. This would help people to understand why they never talk about us.
Isavelle jen on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 11:34 pm
The baby boomers born after 1960 and gen X took they belove civilization and we shitted on it and laugh at it. This started with the baby boomers born after 1960. We basically destroy their fucking project.
Yelle lamarche on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 11:37 pm
It is really risky to put a gen X in charge of a nation. They might destroy it completely even if it means death.
Yellen ukrana on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 11:45 pm
Personally, I would not put a gen X in charge of a nation.
Yellen maritime on Tue, 28th Oct 2025 11:54 pm
Personally, I would not put a gen X in charge of a nation. There are a lot of reasons why they don’t talk much about gen X. Go study how we were raised and you will see why.
Trembale Jenna on Wed, 29th Oct 2025 12:24 am
My father hates him Dr Spock. He read his book and disagreed with everything written. I remember that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbUdlB0_rTc
Denis Trudel on Wed, 29th Oct 2025 12:26 am
Here is the fucking book.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qN9ePK6cNT4
Yellen jean on Wed, 29th Oct 2025 12:34 am
Always these fucking guys like Spock, that comes out of nowhere and fuck up everything. You have to wonder if it is not done on purpose.
Nathalie jean on Wed, 29th Oct 2025 12:38 am
Some people came out of nowhere and told women to go to work like they did to us gen X. Just like that out of nowhere women went to work and we were left on our own.
Yellen jean on Wed, 29th Oct 2025 6:23 am
As I explain water receded a little bit since the last flood. You can clearly see that here at 6:02. Water level were much more higher before.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ta3r0h96pTY
Alain marcotte on Wed, 29th Oct 2025 6:55 am
Must have been a really rich, beautiful and prosperous place before the flood.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLEiYQKjKcc
Regis labroche on Wed, 29th Oct 2025 8:53 am
Talented people die during the flood, or killed themself after the flood or stop reproducing. Earth became a place populated with only retarded people. There is basically no hope for earth.
Gerald helene on Wed, 29th Oct 2025 8:56 am
immediate extraction of the chosen ones is my advice. Let the population of earth die.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 29th Oct 2025 9:06 am
The wrong people survived after the flood, the heavily mentally retarded ones. Nothing good will ever come out of that.
Isabelle jean on Wed, 29th Oct 2025 9:34 am
I have a feeling that another flood is coming. This is where the human race will be completely exterminated for good, finally.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 29th Oct 2025 9:40 am
You are really naive if you think I don’t have a say about the future of earth and its population. You are really naive if you think I am just a time traveller without any power and any say in matter regarding earth..
Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth
Denis Trudel on Wed, 29th Oct 2025 4:19 pm
I asked that all the cadavers of the Jewish race be delivered to me. I also asked for the cadavers of the Whites Europeans. You have not delivered to me what I asked.
Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 29th Oct 2025 4:23 pm
Earth is the realm of death and it belongs to death himself. Eventually you have to deliver to death death(cadavers of Jews and Whites Europeans).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhQxd49znzs&list=RDVhQxd49znzs&start_radio=1
Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Denis trudel on Wed, 29th Oct 2025 4:31 pm
Earth is the realm of death. It is not free to live in the realm of death. A rent has to be paid and it must be paid with death (cadavers of Jews and Whites Europeans).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhQxd49znzs&list=RDVhQxd49znzs&start_radio=1
Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 29th Oct 2025 7:50 pm
You deliver to me the cadavers that I asked or I killed everyone living on earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhQxd49znzs&list=RDVhQxd49znzs&start_radio=1
Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 29th Oct 2025 7:53 pm
Living inside the realm of death was never free. You have to pay your rent with death or cadavers. It always work that way in the past and will continue to work this way in the future.
You deliver to me the cadavers that I asked or I kill everyone living on earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhQxd49znzs&list=RDVhQxd49znzs&start_radio=1
Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 7:42 am
It is not free to live in the realm of death. You have cadavers to deliver to me. You know what I want. You deliver to me what I am asking or I kill everyone on earth.
Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 8:31 am
According to the weather channel it will rain today all day long and also friday.
After noon 10 mm of rain
Evening 10 mm of rain
Night 10 mm of rain
in the morning 10 mm of rain
and 25 mm of rain for friday
https://www.meteomedia.com/fr/ville/ca/quebec/montreal/actuelle
It is not free to live in the realm of death. You have cadavers to deliver to me. You know what I want. You deliver to me what I am asking or I kill everyone on earth.
Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
You deliver to me what I asked for, or I kill everyone on earth. By the way British are also Whites Europeans. I expect their cadavers also.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhQxd49znzs&list=RDVhQxd49znzs&start_radio=1
Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Isabelle jean on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 8:40 am
I would not tolerate traitors among the whites race by that I means British and Whites Europeans. It is because of these traitors that I cannot carry an handgun on me. I will not tolerate traitors that are trying to control everyone and everything for their own benefit.
Fucking piece of shit garbage Jews, British and Whites Europeans.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 8:41 am
Deliver to me what I asked.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhQxd49znzs&list=RDVhQxd49znzs&start_radio=1
Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Isabelle jean on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 8:53 am
Can we save the sinking cities of New York & Jakarta? – What in the World podcast, BBC World Service
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMkh29d1CGc
Because of the last flood, the underground water table was raised up considerable. Creating a swamp like soil full of water instead of hard soil.
The next flood will be the end of earth and the human face.
Deliver to me the cadavers that I asked, or I kill everyone on earth.
Maritime water on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 9:27 am
It is raining in the realm of death. Give me the cadavers I am asking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuX0Sg3tPrI
Denis Trudel on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 10:06 am
You are in the realm of death (earth) and you will obey the rules set by death: no firearms laws, no war tribunal, no criminal tribunal, no rape law, no peace organisation, no environmental
protection agency, no UN, no WEF.
It is now you time to pay your rent. Nobody live for free in the realm. I demanded cadavers, you better to deliver them to me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhQxd49znzs&list=RDVhQxd49znzs&start_radio=1
Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 10:30 am
Earth is the realm of death and I will make sure it stays that way. If you wanted a realm of peace and love, go build one for yourself.
Don’t highjack the realm of death and try to turn it into something that it is not, the realm of peace.
Denis Trudel, aka, death owner of earth
Denis Trudel on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 10:33 am
This is about protecting the work of creators. Hijacking of other realms is not allowed and will never be allows.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 10:39 am
If you think I don’t have a say in the future of earth and its population you are really naive.
Denis Trudel, aka, death owner of earth
Regis trudel on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 11:05 am
In the realm of death, we drive big pickup truck with a manual transmission. We drive big pickup truck that are not aerodynamically efficient and we rape women and kill them.
If you want a realm dedicated to protecting the environment, go build one for yourself and move there.
Isavelle lanthier on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 11:14 am
Prove to me how powerful you are and refill the earth with heat or if you wish with oil, gaz and coal. Fucking losers.
Prove to me that earth realm belongs to you and refill earth with heat.
Isabelle jame on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 11:41 am
I already talked about that. They had to reboot earth after the flood and reinstall globalism.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/meqx8BRNtlg
Their goal is to put everyone in smart cities and control them using cell phone. They are just rebooting earth after the flood and creating the same civilization they had before the flood.
Regis lebaume on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 11:58 am
They tried to lower the price of sliver with some kind financial gimmick. It is now going back up again. Price of sliver will tell you how close we are to the end of earth civilization.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/si00
Isavelle Jean on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 12:00 pm
Silver is a really important industrial metal. This what you have to understand.
Ulaine marcotte on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 12:03 pm
Imagine that the old silver and copper mines where flooded during the last flood. They had to restart at zero and look for new mineral field to exploit. Another big flood, and that is it for earth and the human race.
Ulaone marie on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 12:08 pm
If they were unable to stop the last flood and save their old civilization, it means they don’t control the weather.
Ulaine maquis on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 12:13 pm
You have to understand that they are different structures inside of earth realm. Some earth structures such as earth calculators, earth super computers are not located on earth and are outside of reach by human with a flesh body.
Yellen acurate on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 12:18 pm
You have to understand that there are different players with différents abilities and power level. You cannot access much with a earth flesh body, cannot access directly the energy field, cannot leave earth field, cannot access earth super computers, cannot access other realm such as the sexual realm.
Yelen James on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 12:31 pm
Yes Kennedy was killed by a bullet. No a bullet fire from a human, a bullet created by superior being that did not need a flesh body. Yes Kennedy was killed for real. You stupid cock suckers have just no idea.
Yellen leaving on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 12:39 pm
When I say that we can kill everyone on earth, it is because we can. When I say we can flood the earth again and kill everyone, it is because we can.
You people are unable to do astral projection out of your flesh body and imagine that there is a being called death that is ruling over earth.
When I told to deliver to me the Jewish, British and White European cadavers, or I will kill everyone on earth, it is because we can kill everyone on earth.
Astral projection describes the experience of one’s consciousness leaving the physical body and traveling independently, either within the physical world or on the astral plane.
It is the astral plane that killed Kennedy, not the earth plane.
https://new-age-spirituality.com/content/1886
Denis Trudel on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 1:10 pm
Who is death ruling over earth and all of you. Death is sentient being running the entropic degradation calculator out of his mind for the whole earth. He rules over you. I would give death what he asking for if I were you. I would not fuck with what you are not capable of understanding.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhQxd49znzs&list=RDVhQxd49znzs&start_radio=1
Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 7:46 pm
We flooded earth once we can do it again.
https://www.meteomedia.com/fr/ville/ca/quebec/montreal/actuelle
I asked that the cadavers of the Jews race, British and Whites Europeans be delivered to me. Where are they.
Denis Trudel, aka, death, owner of the earth.
Marie soleil tougas on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 8:42 pm
Ostie que c’est drole:
@mathieudegrandpre
il y a 2 ans (modifié)
ahh ma Marie Soleil, je voulais la marier, une vrai quebecoise, si belle, si parfaite, ds ses roles, sont parler, LES SOURIS QUI MANGE DLA MARDE! yavais quoi dans les pots,, YAVAIS DLA MAAAAARDE omg lol, RIP mon ange xxx,,..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVztb0wEkUI
Isabelle jean on Thu, 30th Oct 2025 8:50 pm
Lionel Carmant has the same face as gregory charles. It is kind of a way to mock them.
Lionel Carmant
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVbc1CgCA40
Gregory charles go at 13:32
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YF409PtSqQ
It is true that she was pretty, she was too pretty actually to be a real human.
ahh ma Marie Soleil, je voulais la marier, une vrai quebecoise, si belle, si parfaite, ds ses roles, sont parler, LES SOURIS QUI MANGE DLA MARDE! yavais quoi dans les pots,, YAVAIS DLA MAAAAARDE omg lol, RIP mon ange xxx,,..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVztb0wEkUI