It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
isabelle marchand on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 2:48 pm
You fucking cock suckers are going to get it really hard this time. Waterworld style.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GQZMdNtHNU
Jean marchand on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 2:58 pm
Is this a joke or it is real. You want to go see at the bottom of the sea. Believe me I am telling the truth, unlike them. There is too much sediment at the bottom of the sea, I doubt you will see anything of value.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6cDmXFkAdM
Isabelle marchan on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 3:03 pm
There is too much sediment at the bottom of the sea. Sediments coming from the land that have been transported by rivers and winds into the ocean.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NM9KFRvA1Vg
Alan marchand on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 3:10 pm
We are going to give it to earth water world style this time. No fucking around anymore.
Denis trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 3:20 pm
You won’t find anything interesting just sediment. i told you, my youtuvbe page is always loaded with the best shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWuPp1v-sI8
It is basically sand coming from disintegrated rocks from the land or from the sea. I made a comment about cold and hot and how it disintegrate rocks.
I always get the best suggestion from YouTube. I always get the best datas from YouTube. I have friends in very high places.
Isabelle Jean on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 3:23 pm
Rock sediments.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44mChwXUqcM
Alain Bertiaume on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 3:41 pm
The purpose of the Big Beautiful Bill is to crash the financial system and installed a selected army commander to do retaliation of behalf of other people.
Stephane lemieuz on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 3:51 pm
Energy field. Probably the same energy type that make me turn in circle when I eat a certain brand of chips. I cannot buy this brand now because I don’t have a car to drive to the grocery store.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fot4WRLDNSU
Alan Jean on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 3:58 pm
These are the rocks that I am talking about disintegrating into rocks dust or sediments.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9DOHpLS19E
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 4:02 pm
Seaweed covering the ancient structures before the flood.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ixjr24iTLs
Isabelle lanthier on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 4:18 pm
I am totally sure, but this look like a some kind of sexual ritual for man like me that are unable to have regulator sex because of the lack of flexibility. It is to transform to procreation ritual into something unique and beautiful
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwjmMdIQdsA
Alain berthianue on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 4:21 pm
2:32 she is kissing the procreator and looking at him in the eyes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERcdV1ZOE6c
Jean lemire on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 4:24 pm
I mean, I am not totally sure in the comment above.
I am not totally sure, but this look like a some kind of sexual ritual for man like me that are unable to have regulator sex because of the lack of flexibility. It is to transform to procreation ritual into something unique and beautiful
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwjmMdIQdsA
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 4:44 pm
This kind of ritual is only reserved to superior procreator. It is probably not accurate but I will write it down anyway.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwjmMdIQdsA
As I said we will flood the earth water world style and restart from zero.
Isabellel jean on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 4:55 pm
Procreation with strong and muscular female. It is not coming back to me. Maybe all these comments are just me making shit up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KA4e-xu4Ti4
Alain Marcotte on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 4:57 pm
We are going to flood the whole planet earth anyway.
Isabelle lanthier on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 5:32 pm
Yoga was something that was supposed to be practiced by women only. Men were never supposed to do yoga. Earth cannot get anything right, they always fuck up everything.
Water world type of flood coming.
Jean laplane on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 5:43 pm
there you go, looking at the procreator in the eyes when doing her moves. 0:00 to 0:20.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuDUfmeTMC4
Earth cannot be relied on . Always fuck up everything. See feminism, war, church, gay marriage and so on.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 5:49 pm
Only on earth, people would take the sacred procreation ritual and turn it into a joke with feminism, gay sex, gay marriage.
Nathalie Gendron on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 6:01 pm
Earth is going to get it really good this time. Everything will be wiped out.
Yellen Jean on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 6:46 pm
Imagine raining like that for a whole year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObYRYF3d38Y
Denis Trudela on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 6:49 pm
This fucking shit is not going to work with me.
Watch us flood the whole earth water world type.
Isabelle lanthier on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 6:58 pm
This is the energy field I am talking about. Depending what I eat and where I am, I turn in circle like that. They are everywhere on earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZPYAPsMUkY
Some are not strong enough to lift dust up the ground. You fucking cocker suckers are going to get it really heavy this time, water world type.
Alain Bendron on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 7:18 pm
This is what I was talking about in my previous comments when I said that the energy field is being reconfigured. The energy field that is creating these tourbillons is being reconfigured as we speak. Only the chosen ones will live.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZPYAPsMUkY
I don’t know if the one below is real or only a fake CGI video. But I will put it here anyway.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYkcRUKId1c
Jean lamarche on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 7:24 pm
I am fed up hearing about the Jews, Carney, Trump, Colbert, Trump, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, Canadian politicians, US politicians, UK, Europe, UN, WEF.
You will get it really good.
Jendrel alporte on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 7:32 pm
‘Incredible video’ captured during Alberta storm could be rare ball lightning event: scientist
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmOfwFHBu_o
Energy field being reconfigured. This is the energy field that is responsible for my skin changing color and turning white.
We are going to fuck earth so good once the time comes.
Jean marie on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 8:06 pm
Difficult to tell the age of construction. Wood is in good shape. Concrete looks new. I would say between 200 to 100 year old construction. Wood is in really good shape. Steel is in good shape with limited rust on it for such an humid location. This look like a 50 year old build. It is probably older than that. I still place the last flood at about 100 year ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSwh9Dyd4co
soothatshdlvs on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 8:07 pm
沒有大咖女星一背再背，Michael Kors Greenwich包包卻在近年不斷有新色、聯名款推出，就知道這顆包其實在品牌佔相當重要一席。
要看一顆包暢銷與否，從品牌每一檔的時尚大片就知道，出鏡率越高、越常推出新色新樣式，便是品牌季季砸重本想要宣傳的重要單品，本篇要介紹的MK Greenwich包包就是活生生的例子。
初代設計原是
Greenwich早在2015年就問世，當時的輪廓類似MK水桶包，包包兩側藏有金屬釦可將形狀變成六角形狀，視覺上更有摩登的都會感。皮革提把與可拆卸的肩背帶的兩用背法，方便在休閒穿搭或上班日常之間做變化。
2021年大變身
你或許想說：「現在去Michael Kors專櫃或是在官網上看到的Greenwich不是長這樣啊！」
Greenwich，其實就是英國的格林威治，Michael Kors在2021年追溯其名由來，以格林威治女孩為靈感幫包包來個華麗變身，呼應格林威治女孩無需過多華麗繁複的贅物，卻依舊能在優雅和現代之間保持完美平衡，極簡之餘仍不失細節。
Greenwich標誌性元素
現今的Greenwich MK單肩包，最具記憶點的就是宛如信封的包包翻蓋設計，畫龍點睛的斜口皮革帶加上MK logo扣飾為Greenwich增添一抹亮點。
不用大咖加持依舊站C位
幾乎每顆包包都有各自的女星粉絲團應援，然而卻鮮少看到哪個女星一背再背Greenwich（除了形象片裡的Bella Hadid）。就像前言所說的，經常可以在Michael Kors每季新的時尚大片裡看到新款的Greenwich包包設計，就算沒有大咖加持依舊受到消費者喜愛、為品牌帶來可觀銷售！
多種包型、印花選擇
如今Greenwich有MK腋下包、肩背包、長夾、手提包等多種不一樣的廓形可以選擇，顏色與印花的種類更是不勝枚舉，滿足不同穿搭風格的搭配。
Jean laforme on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 8:28 pm
Maybe time is not linear as we know it. Maybe time can be manipulated. It looks like a 50 year old building. Wood is not rotten, steel is in good cheap. If dimensional travel is possible, most likely it means that time is not linear.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSwh9Dyd4co
Geraldine Laforme on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 8:52 pm
I had experiences of time dislocation in my personal life. Between 5 to 10 minutes of dislocation. I have always blamed these dislocation on my state of sleepiness, because it usually when it happened.
I need fucking money. Anyway we are going to kill everyone living on earth. I have enough of this crap. Put my comments in a bible.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 8:57 pm
I told you that we entered an accelerated time vortex around 1967. Time was recalibrated. This is how I feel about it.
Isabelle Lanthier on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 9:01 pm
Each time I had an episode of time dislocation, it felt as if time accelerated during these episodes. I think time have been recalibrated and accelerated compare to before.
Alaon lamaree on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 9:10 pm
I find this one funny. I think it is well done.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Y395iyI3dA
Isabelle Jean on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 9:21 pm
I have seen this one before. I don’t know what to make of it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JItkRLVlf-c
Heline marcotte on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 9:24 pm
Make me thing of a sophisticated procreation ritual where the man lay down on his back while she does impregnate herself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JItkRLVlf-c
They call that animal dancing. I made comment about that.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 9:40 pm
Animal flow they called it. I call that sophisticated procreation ritual. Same as the spider stuff. The man basically lay on his back and she impregnate herself and collect your sperm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoAY_dy4bjQ
Isabelle lanthier on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 9:49 pm
13:01 she sits on the man penis to give me a erection. She will play with his erection until she judge he is ready for a successful procreation. It is probably not accurate, but I will write it down anyway.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZi0rl8G-qw
Martin jena on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 9:53 pm
14:32. She is showing him her vagina by putting her vagina straight above his face. She will play with his erection until she is happy with what she sees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZi0rl8G-qw
Isa Jena on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 10:04 pm
The animal flow women are not regular female. They are special female and only reserve for a certain type of male procreator. These are special female procreators. It is probably not accurate, but I will write it down anyway.
Natalia Jena on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 10:07 pm
These are special female procreators built to create superior offsprings.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVKesWTaQSw
It is probably not accurate, but I will write it down anyway.
Denis trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 10:32 pm
I hope I am wrong about all of this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1Q22w7jh28
Isabelle jean on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 10:53 pm
Where I used to work when I had a job, they were offering a cardio course. I knew a guy that was part of these classes. On day I told the guy, maybe I should go with you and try it.
The classes were full of women. He told me, it is not for you don’t go there. I never went. I think he told me that I would humiliate myself. I felt slight rejected but I am mentally strong and I got over it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cvchap5oZSE
Alain gendron on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 11:15 pm
He was an ok guy. he brought me into a strip club where I had a blow job from a girl that had perfect white teeth and perfect hair, but I was not allowed to touch her hair. I don’t know what they did with the condom and my sperm.
Marcilia Jean on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 11:50 pm
You can get a blow job from these fake women. I had one of these women gave me one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVKesWTaQSw
Denis Trudel on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 11:59 am
Measuring the maximum ocean depth between Japan and South Korean will give you an estimate on how high the ocean level increased during the last flood. Similar with UK and France.
It was a fucking big flood I would think.
Isabelle Lanthier on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 12:08 pm
I am starting to believe that they are special human on earth. They are way superior to compare to the majority of humans. The live longer, are more intelligent, can reincarnate indefinity, and so on. I think this is what they are after, the sperm of these men to build a better civilization. Remember Québec red light district in the 1960. It was probably an sperm collection operation run by them. Sperm was used to artificial insemination and analysis.
https://www.healthline.com/health/fertility/freezing-sperm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RNqrbmXD0I
Stephane bureau on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 12:14 pm
Almost all these old building look like hospital to perform artificial insemination with some sex dungeon to perform real life impregnation. Notice the window on these building all similar window. One window one room for one mother and her baby.
Alain Berthiaume on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 12:24 pm
Québec fake royalty.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iIy5UXqIqk
Québec flag with its royalty symbols on it. The flag could suggest a lot of thing. The originale people are from royalty bloods. Québec was the center of the world, and surround that four big lands mass with a king governing these lands mass before the flood.
Here are your four land mass at 0:01, exactly like the Québec flag.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHA8JmhXRug
Jean lemdire on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 12:45 pm
I am talking about genetic royalty here. Not royalty like we see in England. A couple of high quality male procreators. something like 20 to 50 disperse in various beautiful ancients buildings and an almost infinite amount of female procreators.
https://www.chateau-frontenac.com/explorer/noel-des-novembre/
You can even see some kind of dungeon for sexual impregnation.
Denis Trudel on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 12:52 pm
The Jews are not from royalty blood. They are a fraud. This is why we went after them and try to kill all of them. The chosen ones my ass. They were just jealous because they were an inferior breed.