It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Jean lemire on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 1:49 am
To this day, the Jews remembered what I did to them. This is why they invented antisemitism. Hitler was an amateur in term of killing the Jews. This is why they came up with the idea of peace of earth. They used the fake atomic bomb as a way to startup this peace on earth idea. It is because of all the killing I/we have done.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 2:10 am
Fucking British. Should have killed all of them when I could.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PAvK8SVURg
Jean Marie on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 2:12 am
I am born in 1967.
La Reine au Canada, également connue sous le nom de Reine visite l’Expo 67 (1967)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhBji-1lAaI
Fucking garbage sack of shit the British are.
Isabelle Lanthier on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 2:15 am
La reine Elizabeth II honore le président Kennedy (1965)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pC3Z2KrlwGw
Denis Gendron on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 2:19 am
1967 again
Le roi Fayçal reçoit un accueil royal de la reine Élisabeth II (1967) | British Pathé
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnqjQqFQZJ0
Jean lemire on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 2:32 am
Sometime a group a people will offer the command of an army to someone at the condition that you perform retaliation on their behalf. For example, the US army will select a leader that they like and will offer him the command on the army with the special goal of doing retaliation against their enemies.
It has been done often in the past.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 2:35 am
Then you negotiate a retaliation contract between the selected leader and the army. The targets are selected and agreed upon during the contract negotiation. This is has been done more often than most people think in the past.
Isabelle lanthier on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 2:50 am
Read my comment above regarding the US army
il y a 7 heures
remove
These people in Washington DC do not represent the people of the U.S.
Washington D.C. not a state and legally a separate city-state entity apart from the United States of America?
The Unholy Trinity of Globalist Control: The Vatican, the City of London and Washington D.C.
Washington DC, the City of London, and Vatican City are sovereign, corporate entities have their own laws and their own identities. They also have their own flags. On the flag of Washington DC, note the three stars, representing the trinity of these three city-states, also known as the Empire of the City.
https://yogaesoteric.net/the-unholy-trinity-of-globalist-control-the-vatican-the-city-of-london-and-washington-d-c/
Alain Lemire on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 2:55 am
Have you noticed how I have always access to the best YouTube videos links. Videos of the US army in Afghanistan, videos about the Queen of England touring the world, video about movies from the 70 and all other kinds of informations.
Have you notices that.
Macilus Laproche on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 3:19 am
1965 about the same time I was born. I told you that I have killed a lot of people. I told you that the came up with the atomic bomb as a way to push the concept of peace on a world wide scale to avoid a repeat of the violence that happened in the past. I was get the best stuff on my YouTube page.
From the archives: Robert Oppenheimer in 1965 on if the bomb was necessary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdtLxlttrHg
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 3:31 am
They installed a TV next to the elevator where I used to work. It happened during the day and the TV was set at CNN. Everybody gather around the TV when it happened.
I have friends in high places. Fucking stupid cock suckers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rDVhCnxsns
Alain Lamarre on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 3:45 am
Play at 0:25 speed and look at his face.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmrASZzasks
Suggested by YouTube to me.
Denis Tremblay on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 3:55 am
Look at his hands at 0:48. He is having trouble holding the gun properly. They don’t have normal hands.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmrASZzasks
Isabelle lanthier on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 4:07 am
I always get the best YouTube videos suggested to me. Some people might seek retaliation and will select a leader to help them achieve that.
Alain Marinane on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 4:20 am
I cannot figure out if they are making fun of us or if they are serious when producing such video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLIE1GKfluk
Isabelle marine on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 4:26 am
Maybe it is a sexual thing. Maybe some men are sexually turn on when a women beat them up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLIE1GKfluk
Another tentative to boost birth rate.
See what I mean below
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/nikky-thorne-joey-sunny-1-xhXBzDv
Alain Gendron on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 4:38 am
I am born in 1967. This is when we entered an accelerated time vortex. No kids where wearing a suit in 1966. No kids where talking like that in 1966. Again, are they making fun of us or they are serious
1966 Children about future
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwHib5wYEj8
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 4:55 am
Trying to boost the birth rate with such crappy video. Similar to Yoga but less obvious. 1954.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V72q3SJW_bI
Isabelle Lanthier on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 5:00 am
Trying to boost the birth with such video. WOW
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXr1H3FvNus
alain jean on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 5:08 am
There you go 1931. Some kind of soft porn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNbE1nlnm9A
See at 0:58
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOY_wzL9enE
daniel emirate on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 5:14 am
Boosting birth rate by teaching women how to be sexually attractive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDXmqSQwhyU
We went from this above to beach volleyball.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2j6xdDXDcOw
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 5:18 am
Teaching them basic sexual position
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbO9RAXHdHU
Jean marine on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 5:22 am
Teaching women how to create good and obedient slaves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChoOExRLT4Q
Alain Berthiaume on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 5:27 am
1:02 wow. Mixed erotic wrestling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbFtFaNkXCc&t=51s
Isabelle lantheir on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 5:30 am
Training young boy on how to be obedient slave.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uux7PpTWWlk
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 5:59 am
WOW I am speechless after watching all these black and white videos. I was right again, earth is a slavery camp and we are building a civilisation for other beings.
Isabele Lafortune on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 9:30 am
I told you about amazonian female statues. I told you about wrestling as a form of sexual prelude before procreation.
Densi Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 9:59 am
Fighting with an Amazonian female can turn into a form of male rape depending how good she is.
Isabelle Lanthier on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 10:35 am
Raping the male that refuse to procreate. Bring in the Amazonian female to force procreation on them.
Jean lemire on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 10:54 am
Male raping using Amazonian female. Force procreation. Typical Amazonian female training.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zn_aYiEXymg
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 11:01 am
They call that animal flow.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOiH6UIMCHc
Isabelle Lanthier on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 11:06 am
A lot of fuck up shit on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOf3kYtwASo
Alain Jemire on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 11:13 am
Animal flow. How to procreate with fat men that are not flexible.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoAY_dy4bjQ
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 11:36 am
As if they know that a big flood is coming and they are preparing themself. Preparing to repopulate earth after the big flood.
Animal flow. How to procreate with fat men that are not flexible.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoAY_dy4bjQ
Isabelle lanthei on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 12:01 pm
This is the plane you would use if you think earth is about to be flooded again or it has been flooded in the past.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ix9I0OLEQ3k
I place the last flood about 100 year ago.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 12:15 pm
I always forget this plane. A really well designed plane. Robust and reliable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y40gfXxCcSI
Isabelle Latendresse on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 12:36 pm
It is cold out there for this summer. I barely use my AC and I usually shut it down at night because the house becomes too cold. Today I have my AC off.
2025 In The U.S. Is Running Cool; Perth Chills, Sydney Shivers; + Bioethicists Propose Infecting You With Meat-Allergy Ticks
Only the chosen ones will live, everyone else will die as I like to say.
Alain Jeanmarie on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 12:39 pm
Your fucking BS with your long neck, Colbert, Harris, Trump, Carney, UN, WEF. Some people think it is enough of this crap.
Henry larry on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 12:44 pm
Another plane that was well designed, robust and reliable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8n6_nG1mQA
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 12:47 pm
The De Havilland Beaver, An Engineering Masterpiece | The Immortal Beaver | On The Move
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wQjAB-jnI8
Isabelle Lanthier on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 12:55 pm
Landing De Havilland Beaver : CHA2 : Québec : Canada: Hydravion Aventure
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7dksDuH3zU
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 1:12 pm
Some of us of feed up of hearing about the Jews day in and day out. Some of us don’t want to hear about them anymore.
Isavbelle Lanthier on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 1:22 pm
Another big flood will fix the Jewish problem for good. Finally we will get their total extermination.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 1:35 pm
A good flood will fix all of this. Earth can be repopulated afterward.
Isabelle Lanthier on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 1:38 pm
Remember the movie waterworld. A good flood will fix all this shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpKbULrB9Z8
Fucking Jews. This will be the last we will ever heard about them.
alain lamarre on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 2:18 pm
By the way the beaver is an expeditionary plane. This is the kind of plane you would use to survey new lands after a flood.
The De Havilland Beaver, An Engineering Masterpiece | The Immortal Beaver | On The Move
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wQjAB-jnI8
Stehpane laroque on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 2:23 pm
How do you think UK became an Island same with Japan. They became Islands after the last big flood that I place around 100 years ago. They always lie about everything.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 2:24 pm
Expect another big flood coming.
Geradine lafleur on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 2:33 pm
Those old maps are probably accurate. They were made before the last big flood. This tells you how much of a big flood it was. Imagine what the next one will do.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 2:34 pm
You fucking cock sucker are going to get it really hard this time.