It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 16th Jul 2025 3:08 am
It is not usual to have two women during procreation. It makes certain thing easier.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGi48Kqc37c
Isabelle Blain on Wed, 16th Jul 2025 3:10 am
I meant unusual.
It is not unusual to have two women during procreation. It makes certain thing easier.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGi48Kqc37c
Jeamie Presley on Wed, 16th Jul 2025 3:19 am
If the young female being impregnated is young, around 12 year old, an older women (20 year old) that went through this before will assist the procreation process by guiding the 12 years old and teaching her technics. Only the superior man were allowed to procreate indefinitely.
Aalin garneau on Wed, 16th Jul 2025 3:40 am
Drowning women in water. Some women would get really strong orgasms out of that. I don’t remembers the all the details, you should have seen their fucking facial expression.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQeUmKdsXBM
Denis trudel on Wed, 16th Jul 2025 3:59 am
It was a nice life if you were a superior man. You had the resources needed to purse projects that you like. The best housing, best female, best sex, best food.
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 16th Jul 2025 4:05 am
This was a real tv show.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohriC1ltcWw
Denis Trudel on Wed, 16th Jul 2025 4:07 am
Apparently, it was a real tv show.
Skin Wars is a body painting reality competition hosted by Rebecca Romijn that premiered on the American pay-television channel Game Show Network on August 6, 2014.[1] Contestants on the series perform challenges containing body painting each episode. At the end of each episode, one contestant is eliminated and told “It’s time to wash off your canvas.”[2]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohriC1ltcWw
Alain Gendron on Wed, 16th Jul 2025 4:10 am
Sexual hypnosis. Some men went into the woods alone and had sex under hypnosis and thought it was a dream when they woke up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohriC1ltcWw
Densi Rudel on Wed, 16th Jul 2025 4:34 am
If the young female being impregnated is young, around 12 year old, an older women (20 year old) that went through this before will assist the procreation process by guiding the 12 years old and teaching her technics. Only the superior man were allowed to procreate indefinitely.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cTvEXwzGE0
Daniel lgrand on Wed, 16th Jul 2025 5:09 am
5:09 Look like a sexual position to give better access to the asshole or vagina. Also look like a position to offer her vagina for procreation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dT6qCZzcTY
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 16th Jul 2025 5:17 am
10:43 Position for procreation taking on a table with the man standing up while penetrating her. She extends her hands and touch him while is penetrating her to give him some kind of guidage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dT6qCZzcTY
Isaballe Jena on Wed, 16th Jul 2025 5:19 am
It was at 10:35 I was talking about. I made a mistake
Denis Trudel on Wed, 16th Jul 2025 5:27 am
I am not sure what to think of this. Training the boy on how to control a women and position himself for procreation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fcdSGItEu0
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 16th Jul 2025 5:30 am
Learning how to rape a woman as some kind of sexual procreation ritual.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fcdSGItEu0
Jean Meirme on Thu, 17th Jul 2025 9:56 am
13:00 wind created mountains tops. This is the kind of patterns you would see when the dust is transported by wind instead of water. Left bottom of ten screen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pPpNmunqJY
Some places were destroyed by water and floods others places by strong and never ending winds.
Densi Trudelle on Thu, 17th Jul 2025 10:03 am
I told you to not fuck with me and insult me with stupid shit such as Canada firearms laws.
Isabelle Lnathier on Thu, 17th Jul 2025 10:15 am
That was the real purpose of the war in Afghanistan. Trying to find and located the doors to inner earth. You won’t find them there is too much ground to cover and some many ways to hide them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qf5-YzDixGo
Russia invaded Afghanistan also. It the purpose was to find the doors to inner earth, good luck with that. The Russian failed, the US failed.
Alain Gendron on Thu, 17th Jul 2025 10:52 am
I think it was working this way. If they found a group of men, out in the middle of nowhere, 20 km away from water sources and big cities, it was assumed that the just came out of hidden doors inside a mountain. These men were interrogated about where they were coming from.
You see where I am going with that.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 17th Jul 2025 11:05 am
New Release: Video 2 of 10 – Army 173rd Airborne 503rd Infantry 2nd Battalion Chosen Company. A platoon of 26 Sky soldiers on their 15 month Afghanistan combat deployment had only 2 weeks left before returning home before they were ordered to relocate their combat outpost to the capital city of Wanat. Uncut footage from their time at COP Bella before leaving on their last mission…
a Main Effort Mission “Operation Rock Move”.
The Battle of Wanat 9 KIA 27 wounded..
Thank You Smiddy… Hoorah Sir!
… to be continued
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3LBTGHk9xM
Operation rock move. The Russians went in first trying to locate the doors. Then the US was send.
Isabelle lantheirl on Thu, 17th Jul 2025 11:13 am
All the information about soviet afghan war is probably false. They always lie about everything. It was about locating the doors to the inner earth, would be my guess.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Afghan_War
Aalin lamarche on Thu, 17th Jul 2025 1:36 pm
Looking for doors into the inner earth, if you believe that the information is accurate. See Khorasan cave complex.
During the time he was there the famous GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) was dropped on an ISIS-Khorasan cave complex in the Achin District of Afghanistans Nangarhar Province so it can be assumed the compilation was taken somewhere in that area.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5UcAMiPcDo
Denis Trudel on Fri, 18th Jul 2025 4:30 am
I told you that I would kill all the population of earth. I told you that I want to be alone. Either I leave or I kill all of you. These are the 2 choices I have if I want to be alone. I told to not insult me with your fucking stupidity such as Canada firearms laws. Don’t fuck with me.
Record Cold Sweeps Parts Of The U.S.; Ross Ice Shelf To -60C (-76F); The North Atlantic Is Cooling; + Warming Pause In Australia
https://electroverse.info/record-cold-sweeps-parts-of-the-u-s-ross-ice-shelf-to-60c-76f-the-north-atlantic-is-cooling-warming-pause-in-australia/
Alain Marina on Fri, 18th Jul 2025 5:03 am
I won’t comment on this. I told you to not fuck with me and insult me with your stupidity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gk2gZ3oUDRA
Isabelle lantheir on Fri, 18th Jul 2025 6:52 am
It was 12 degrees Celsius at 4:00 AM in Montreal. I stopped my AC at around 1:00 AM my house was too cold. I will kill all the population of earth for insulting me.
Record Cold Sweeps Parts Of The U.S.; Ross Ice Shelf To -60C (-76F); The North Atlantic Is Cooling; + Warming Pause In Australia
https://electroverse.info/record-cold-sweeps-parts-of-the-u-s-ross-ice-shelf-to-60c-76f-the-north-atlantic-is-cooling-warming-pause-in-australia/
I believe the news above is real.
I told you to not fuck with me and insult me with your stupidity.
Denis Laprise on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 1:48 pm
People make fun of mechanics, but the best one have an high IQ.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTNwdahpgFI&t=3062s
They know we have a problem of IQ and there is not enough high IQ people to keep this civilisation alive. This is the percet example above. Politicians, bankers, universities intellectual, economists are all losers with a low IQ.
They know same as I know that we have a problem of IQ on earth. Not enough high IQ like this man above to keep earth alive. This know it is over for earth.
Isabelle Lanthier on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 2:19 pm
I am pretty sure it is bad out there. I just don’t have the money and a car to drive around and see it for myself. Earth is to heavy with a lot of parasite Very few people with an high IQ are willing to maintain this civilisation alive voluntary. See comment above. I suspect a lot of high IQ people have quietly disconnect themself as much as possible from society and just doing the bare minimum to survive.
Alain Gendron on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 2:42 pm
We are soon approaching the point where everything will stop working because there is not enough high IQ people willing to work to maintain earth civilization alive. This is why I decided to take public transportation and walked. I believe we have reached this point, where everything will stop working, including car repair and maintenance.
This will mean, not body to fix cars, nobody to fix airplane, no body to fix the electrical grid, nobody to fix snow removal equipment, nobody to fix cities buses.
I think we are almost there.
Denise Trudelle on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 3:09 pm
The only people that will survive what is coming, are the people protected by GOD. Everybody else will die, see comment above. Some people will be given the chances to see all of this unfold, including the cadavers on the ground. I have already made comments about this in the past.
Jean lemire on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 3:26 pm
Is it not funny that earth global cooling is accelerating right at the same time that earth has not enough high IQ people willing to work to maintain earth civilization alive. Maybe that is what happen in the past also.
Denis ruelle on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 3:31 pm
Remember this song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Remember the little boy leaving earth and not felling guilty of leaving his mother behind to die.
Jean laverge on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 3:46 pm
Don’t believe the church and state
And everything they tell you
Believe in me, I’m with the high command
This is self explanatory
——————————————
The Father and the Spirit
Will guide you and protect from up here
Some chosen people will be allowed to see everything including the cadavers on the ground. This could be one interpretation.
———————————————
Teach the children quietly
For some day sons and daughters
Will rise up and fight while we stood still
People controlling earth will be killed first. This include politicians, bankers, intellectuals,…
———————————————
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Jean laporte on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 3:56 pm
There’s a gun and ammunition
Just inside the doorway
Use it only in emergency
Better you should pray to God
The Father and the Spirit
Will guide you and protect from up here
———————————————–
It seems to imply that some people will see everything including the cadavers on the ground. This is why they are saying There’s a gun and ammunition.
Denis Trudel on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 4:05 pm
The future is already written. They know who will live and who will die. They know who are the chosen ones and who they are going to protect during the end of times, or the end of earth. The song is basically telling us that the future is already written.
Isabelle Lantheir on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 4:26 pm
The future is already written. Everyone on earth will die except the chosen ones. It is right there in the video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Denis Trudel on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 5:01 pm
I understand that it is just an illusion. But if you want people to believe that the illusion is real you need rule of cohesions: gravity, electrical, weight, direction.
An illusion can only be seen as real if it has cohesion. Gravity is on example of cohesion rule.
They have no choice but let earth population die because there is not enough high IQ people to maintain this civilisation. If they want to keep the illusion alive, they cannot internet too much and directly. They will kill all the population of earth just to keep the illusion alive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PaUCz09u24
Isabelle Lanthier on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 5:02 pm
They have no choice but let earth population die because there is not enough high IQ people to maintain this civilisation. If they want to keep the illusion alive, they cannot intervene too much and directly. They will kill all the population of earth just to keep the illusion alive.
alan gendro on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 5:06 pm
To keep the illusion alive, they will be forced to kill everyone on earth because of a lack of high IQ people to fix it: lack of car mechanics, lack of aircraft mechanics, lack of heavy machines mechanics, and so on. Watch them let all the population of earth die just to keep the illusion alive.
maire jeanette on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 5:16 pm
I told you that I am a dimensional traveller and that I was reincarnated multiple times through time. If they want to protect the illusion they will have to let everyone on earth die because of natural resources depletion or the law of conservation of mass.
They are so fucked it is actually funny.
Denis Trudel on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 5:22 pm
If they want to save the illusion, they will have to let everyone die and reboot the illusion once everyone is dead and repopulate.
They are so fucked, that it is actually really funny when you think about it.
Isabelle Lanthier on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 5:41 pm
Alcatraz is about 100 year old. The flood happened 100 year ago I would day. It is really humid, I can feel the humidity sticking to my body. I feel like I am bathing in a bath full of humidity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vF5154QCzok
Denis Trudel on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 6:02 pm
CAN Bus system. All the parts are coming with some kind of IP address. You need the special tool to update computer memory with the new address of the part. It is going to be a spectacular collapse and a rapid one.
See at 45:03.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTNwdahpgFI&t=253s
CAN bus system
https://www.car-auto-repair.com/automotive-can-bus-system-explained-instruction-diagnosis/
https://www.circuitbread.com/tutorials/understanding-can-a-beginners-guide-to-the-controller-area-network-protocol
Alain Marchand on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 6:52 pm
They are all kind of rumors circulating about the CAN bus network. Rumor about excessive noises cause by electrical connectors. Noises disrupt the signal and make the signal unreadable by the sensor or computer.
If these rumors are real, mechanics will just look for another jobs and nobody will be able to repair them. It is coming. Very soon everything will grind to an halt because there won’t be enough people willing and capable of fixing them.
6:59 could be excessive noise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VmBD8QZgRw
Jean marchane on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 7:00 pm
Excessive noise cause by electromagnetic field.
https://community.st.com/t5/stm32-mcus-products/can-bus-massive-noise-on-the-bus-when-a-power-converter-starts/td-p/682045
https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/699409/canbus-corruption-due-to-stuff-errors-excessive-dominant-bits
It is going to a fucking fast collapse.
Isabel Helene on Sat, 19th Jul 2025 7:17 pm
CAN Bus was invented by a German company. Nothing good has ever come out of UK and Europe. Best avoid them. Bosch the company that created CAN Bus. Decoupling from Europe is a good idea form my point of view. Only confusion and chaos come out of Europe.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosch_(company)
Denis Trudelt on Sun, 20th Jul 2025 4:17 am
17:40 people doing trade works are fed up with this crap like working in tight spaces. Trade people are not interested at keeping this civilization alive and keeping all these parasites alive. This is another reason I decided to walk and use public transportation instead of owning a car.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29K-wQ6I0U0
This is no way earth civilisation will stay alive indefinitely. As I said multiple times, you lost the West a long time ago, you just don’t have the IQ to see it.
Jean lemire on Sun, 20th Jul 2025 4:25 am
Everything is about to stop working because of the lack of high IQ trade people willing to maintain it: car mechanics, heavy machinery mechanics, diesel mechanics, aircraft mechanics. Earth population will de dead way before this reality die or collapses on it own.
Men like me are not willing to keep maintaining this civilization alive using our hard manual labor.
You are so fucked it is actually funny.
Salon Gendron on Sun, 20th Jul 2025 4:56 am
Learning that your mother is not your real mother, and was just a vehicle to bring you here on earth in a hidden way. Knowing that you are not human and don’t belong on earth and earth is a just transitory step in your life. See at 3:30. This is why he leaves her mother behind to die and does not care about her.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Denis Trudel on Sun, 20th Jul 2025 5:12 am
SO fucking funny. Making fun of earth matrix of solid.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/CgU-sbLUy1o
I have to love this body update. It goes from having diarrhea each time you eat, to really hard stool that rub your asshole like sandpaper. Maybe I should stop eating and I refuse to obey so I receive pain.
Isabrelle Lnathier on Sun, 20th Jul 2025 6:22 am
Realizing that women have no real worth and sexual reproduction is a failure and always will be. Leaving without caring about your mother. See at 3:30. Don’t even wave goodbye with your hands to your mother as she is not important to you. You just don’t want to be on earth and happy to leave forever.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Alain Gendron on Sun, 20th Jul 2025 8:03 am
The same failed theatre over and over. Same long neck people, same fake white smile, and yet still no concrete results yet. Same fucking failed theater day, after day, after day and sill not measurable result on anything.
When I look at this video, this is what I thought same failed theater day and day and no real results. I thought to my self, you are just fucking losers and this operation should have been terminated a long time ago. You are just no the right person to this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QRXbpXk7EA
Same fucking ugly long neck, such as Carney, same ugly beard as Vance, still no real results are achieved.