It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 7:38 am
Notice the buddha with the globe in its hands.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/knEL71jiEJw
https://static.displate.com/857×1200/displate/2023-05-06/7e3e56ce2def2a189897087d1a6ba1a8_9f8105d3dbdb8648316759c94c1c031a.jpg
Isabelle Lanthier on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 7:41 am
Notice the pink wheel. Similar to the wheel surrounding the baby.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/knEL71jiEJw
https://static.displate.com/857×1200/displate/2023-05-06/7e3e56ce2def2a189897087d1a6ba1a8_9f8105d3dbdb8648316759c94c1c031a.jpg
Stephane Gendron on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 7:44 am
Here is another image with Freemason symbolsim.
https://freemason.org/freemasonry-symbols/
Notice the sun on top of the picture. Similar to the pink wheel.
https://static.displate.com/857×1200/displate/2023-05-06/7e3e56ce2def2a189897087d1a6ba1a8_9f8105d3dbdb8648316759c94c1c031a.jpg
Isabelle Lanthier on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 7:52 am
Notice the square at that bottom, similar to a carpenter square. It means knowledge, the scientifical knowledge they have to control earth that we don’t have. Notice the blocs on the rights, it means weight or gravity. Notice the book with a carpenter square on it. It means the book of scientific knowledge.
https://freemason.org/freemasonry-symbols/
Denis Trudel on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 8:02 am
Notice the baby above. It represents either sexual procreation or artificial cloning. It could also means knowledge about creating life, any kind of life: humans, animals, aquatics.
https://static.displate.com/857×1200/displate/2023-05-06/7e3e56ce2def2a189897087d1a6ba1a8_9f8105d3dbdb8648316759c94c1c031a.jpg
Isabelle Lanthier on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 8:06 am
The skull and sword at the bottom, represent the contract among themselves that they must obey. Not following the contract, means execution or death.
https://static.displate.com/857×1200/displate/2023-05-06/7e3e56ce2def2a189897087d1a6ba1a8_9f8105d3dbdb8648316759c94c1c031a.jpg
The black and white square represent the world divide in longitude and latitude. Notice the book of knowledge with a square in the middle of the picture.
Alain Gendron on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 8:12 am
The skull and sword at the bottom, represent the contract among themselves that they must obey. Not following the contract, means execution or death.
https://static.displate.com/857×1200/displate/2023-05-06/7e3e56ce2def2a189897087d1a6ba1a8_9f8105d3dbdb8648316759c94c1c031a.jpg
They would have killed me a long time if they were capable of. The fact is that I have some kind of protection that stop them from killing me. They would have probably killed me using some kind of energy beam.
Marie Laposa on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 8:24 am
The carpenter square also represent builders. Builders of civilization or builders of life.
https://static.displate.com/857%C3%971200/displate/2023-05-06/7e3e56ce2def2a189897087d1a6ba1a8_9f8105d3dbdb8648316759c94c1c031a.jpg
The skull, the sword and the piece of paper represent a contract among themselves that is sealed by death.
Isabelle lachance on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 8:39 am
Not sure what to make of it. I will have to think more about it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDfLo_Zg6VA
Denis trudel on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 8:48 am
I fucking told you. It amazing how fast the condensation bucket fill up with water. It is really humid out there.
Orages : jusqu’à 100 mm de pluie reçus dimanche dans la grande région de Montréal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRJVObiV70E
Isabelle lanthier on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 8:50 am
I demanded instructions of how I should act. I have been told I can do whatever I want. I can kill the whole population of earth I will still leave earth.
Alain Gendron on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 8:55 am
I can kill all the Jewish people of the world and nothing will happen to me. I will still continue to receive body upgrades.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 8:58 am
It is not totally accurate, but to make it simple, earth and everything on it belongs to me and I can do whatever I want with it.
Isabelle Lanthier on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 9:27 am
The carpenter square also represent builders. Builders of civilization or builders of life.
https://static.displate.com/857%C3%971200/displate/2023-05-06/7e3e56ce2def2a189897087d1a6ba1a8_9f8105d3dbdb8648316759c94c1c031a.jpg
The skull, the sword and the piece of paper represent a contract among themselves that is sealed by death.
This why they are working together.. It is because of the contract I mentioned above. They have a code of conduct among themselves.
She is the perfect example of that. She is following their code of conduct. Their code of conduct is to hide the truth, put in simple terms.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJSMvPN8av8
alain gendron on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 9:32 am
The way I understand it, earth and everything on it belong to me.
Jean laplnate on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 9:37 am
If earth belongs to me I want to be alone. Either I leave or I kill all the population of earth.
Jean Marie on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 9:46 am
Bloomberg last video on its YouTube channel is 3 hours ago. I will kill everyone on earth just to be alone. As far as I can tell the stock market is opened. Why is Bloomberg YouTube channel dead.
https://www.youtube.com/@markets/videos
Denis Tremblay on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 10:21 am
Even the mold on my concrete stairs are dying. Changing color from dark to light gray.
I wish I had money and a car to go down town and see what is happening there.
https://plasticinehouse.com/how-to-remove-mold-from-concrete/
Everything that is alive is being killed by the sun. The sun has really changed a lot. Fucking sun, it feels like we are inside a micro-waves oven.
Isabelle stjean on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 10:24 am
Molds on concrete
https://img.freepik.com/premium-photo/mold-concrete-surface_176841-35665.jpg
https://showergroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Can-Black-Mold-Grow-on-Concrete.jpg
Alain Lafreniere on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 10:28 am
I should have made a video of my concrete stairs. But I am lazy. You should see that. Everything that is alive is being killed.
Isabelle larant on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 10:58 am
Fucking cock suckers. I should have killed all of them when I could
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7i4lq-3Y7iI
Denis Grudel on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 11:03 am
I was right, they don’t control earth calculators: biological life calculator, thermal calculator, gravity calculator, entropic degradation calculator, backward entropic clock. I spoke about that often in my previous comments.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7i4lq-3Y7iI
Nous aurons consommé notre monde avant d avoir changé d espèce humaine…Quelle phrase pleine de sens…
Isabelle Kraime on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 11:17 am
I am born in 1967, there is a reason for that. I don’t know what the reason is, but I am pretty sure that there is a reason for that.
1970 : André Leroi Gourhan alerte sur l’avenir de l’humanité | Archive INA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7i4lq-3Y7iI
Alain Gendron on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 11:19 am
Everything started to turn into shit around 1970. I am born in 1967 just before everything started to turn into shit
Denis Trudel on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 11:47 am
I told you that we did not invent anything and it was a transfer of technology from them to us. At 19:70, he is teaching us to organize the information.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7i4lq-3Y7iI
Alain laporte on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 11:48 am
It is 19:27 in the video. made a mistake
Alain Germain on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 12:00 pm
I told you that I did dimensional travels and I was reincarnated multiple times in different flesh body.
Isabelle pierre on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 12:25 pm
They play with genetic and created some kind of hybrid that is half human and half animal. This is what I am starting to suspect.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 12:39 pm
L’homme et la matière at 27:17 on the right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmXU3Ycp6V4
I use the term matrix of solid instead of matière. Matière is a another word for the periodic table. Matière means natural resources.
Matrix of solid is a object build using different elements from the periodic table. Like a car.
Alain Gendron on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 12:52 pm
Les fiches are basically a knowledge database put on a multiple small pieces of paper. It is basically a programming concept call a database entry inside a database.
he is basically teaching us using paper how to create a database either using paper or later on electricity such as hard drive.
I told you, we did not invent anything, it was a technological transfert from them to us.
See at 30:24
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmXU3Ycp6V4
Isabelle Lanthier on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 1:31 pm
The Europeans are still upset that they were not able to conquer and submit Russia. They have no natural resources and are looking at Russia natural resources as something that belong to them first. There are reason why they were pushed up North as a tentative to exterminate them. Always looking to steal other people lands and naturals resources.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/thpy2IjRA_E
Denis Trudel on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 1:35 pm
People are making a mistake to think they can trust the UK, Israel and Europe. As soon as they can, they will fuck you over and show no mercy toward you.
Bertrand Jean on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 1:44 pm
If I can I will finish what I could not do, exterminate the Whites people living in Europe.
Stephane Boudrean on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 1:46 pm
I don’t care about what Trump is doing. He does not own earth reality, I do.
Trump pledges NATO weapons for Ukraine amid talk of new Russia sanctions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g50dj9MvAAY
Denis Tremblay on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 1:51 pm
Try to fuck with me, and see how it will work out for all of you.
Isabelle Lanthier on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 10:35 pm
You are such fucking losers all of you. if an event is not generated by them and store in their events database, it will discard as false. This goes for Israel-Gaza war, Ukraine war, Epstein files, Biden auto pen story, and many more.
It will be seen by their AI as a form of entertainment event ( Israel-Gaza war, Ukraine war, Epstein files, Biden auto pen story, )and not requiring any response from the AI.
I told you are just fucking losers and we will kill all the population of earth. You are just pathetic moron. Nobody is leaving earth until we kill everyone. No I am not working for them. I come from the higher spheres of divinity.
Alain Gendron on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 10:43 pm
There is an events database and a process of certification of these events.
Everything the IA sees has to pass to a process of certification such as Biden auto-pen story. False events are discarded and seen as entertainment and don’t require a response from the IA.
Just fucking you all are.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 10:45 pm
You cannot create false events like this:
RAW VIDEO: New York City Subway Experiences Shocking Flooding
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bcu-UHaEZ_A
It will fail the processus of certification. It will be discarded as entertainment.
Stephane Mercier on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 10:55 pm
Epstein files fail the event certification process and it is seen as entertainment, therefore a response is not needed. Same with Biden Auto-pen story. You really think that they are that stupid.
Jean lesage on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 11:07 pm
You cannot create false events like this:
RAW VIDEO: New York City Subway Experiences Shocking Flooding
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bcu-UHaEZ_A
It will fail the processus of certification. It will be discarded as entertainment. The process of verification will check in their database what was the temperature, humidity level, location and check if the condition needed are there for a flood. If weather variable for this location are not of the right values, temperature, humidity, time of day this event will be discarded and seen as entertainment.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 11:33 pm
I am starting to suspce also, that trees are dying because of the backward entropic degration clock. Or the number of life cycle left.
I am starting to suspect that your videos with dying trees have no real effect on the biological life calculator. I don’t have money, so I cannot buy a car and drive around to prove my hypothesis, but this is what I am starting to suspect. Your fucking videos with people holding white sheets of paper are probably a waste of time also. I just don’t have the money needed to verify that.
I really don’t like you at all.
Isabelle Lanthier on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 11:41 pm
Your fucking piece of shit of Colbert really gets on my nerves. I want everyone on earth dead. Nobody is leaving earth, nobody except the chosen ones.
Jean Larouche on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 11:44 pm
I suspect also that your COVID scam did not pass the test of events certification and was discarded or seen as entertainment.
Alain Gendron on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 11:48 pm
Video like this don’t pass the event certification process and are discarded.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-Afm04x2Ow
Denis ruelle on Tue, 15th Jul 2025 12:02 am
You really thought fucking losers that you would change earth algorithms with your fucking Youtube videos. Fucking losers.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 15th Jul 2025 9:51 am
Is this real or just a fake illusion not connected to earth mathematical models.
I will assume it is real and it has been generated by the earth calculator.
this is how it starts. Slowly like that small flood on a small area. Then the area flooded gets bigger and bigger. Until it starts to rain none stop for a whole month, or a whole year. It is probably not accurate, but this is how I remembered it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5bd7uyFeTI
Alain Gendron on Tue, 15th Jul 2025 11:40 am
The people that thought that they were untouchable: politicians, rich people, bankers die during the flood. The people that wanted to die and were supposed to die: car mechanics, hookers, grocery store clerk live.
Who wanted to die live, who wanted to live die.
Geand Leloup on Tue, 15th Jul 2025 7:44 pm
Shear brute force and mass against a small opponent. No need to have any kind of technics you have mass and force of your side. Notice that they will never show this kind of fighting style in Hollywood movie.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/tU2hJ0eUGhs
Denis Trudel on Tue, 15th Jul 2025 8:40 pm
The bread and pizza crust have changed. They look, feel and taste empty without anything nutritious in them. This is what you would expect to see in a reality based on death or entropic degradation: food without taste and nutritious value. Farm animals are probably becoming infertile so are seed for crop farming such wheat.
It is probably worst than it looks out there, I just don’t have a car to go driving and around and check it with my own eyes.
stephane gendron on Wed, 16th Jul 2025 3:04 am
Procreation room. preliminaries activities to raise the sexual appetite of the procreator.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGi48Kqc37c