It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Jean marcil on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 2:53 am
It goes a bit like this. Without a job you cannot access money, without money you cannot buy food, so we are forced to sell our manual labor for money. Same with a mortgage. If you have a mortgage you must work to repay the capital plus interest, so therefore we are forced to sell our manual labor. It is a way to threaten us of death if we don’t work
I want to see what they are going to come up with, now that the old system is dying because of the exponential curve.
There are a lot of disadvantages to this kind of method of control. It forces e some people to steal, cheat, lie in order to access money for survival. This ss highly destructive to the system they created. This is one purpose of the police forces, stop these destructive forces they have created when they installed this system to control people. I am waiting to see what will be their next method of control. Typical of matrix of solid where the population participation is needed to keep it alive. You need a system to force people into participating in it, to build it. A system based on a matrix of solid is a flawed concept. They always die as we can currently see it.
I stand by what I said, earth reality will die, it is unavoidable as I explain in previous comments. As I like to say, only the chosen ones will live.
Benoit Traverse on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 2:57 am
I came to study earth and I did. I will probably still be on earth while its civilisation is dying and I will probably see the death of earth populations. Earth is a shit reality based on old outdated concepts.
Denis Laferme on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 3:21 am
You don’t want to talk with me. I cannot hear you, I can not feel your energy. What you are crying because you know that you are a loser.
Isabelle Lanthier on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 9:40 am
I want earth for myself alone. Either I leave or I kill the whole population of earth. You could leave but I know you won’t do that. It is my choice, not ours, how you will die.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 9:57 am
I want earth for myself alone. Either I leave or I kill the whole population of earth. You could leave but I know you won’t do that. It is my choice, not yours, how you will die.
I want the whole population of earth dead.
Isabelle Lanthier on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 10:52 am
First thing you do, kill all the staff working inside Israel ambassy on US soil. After that, send submarines with cruise missiles to destroy Israel electrical grid and potable water treatment plants.
Then when the Jews inside the US revolt, you kill them.
Alain Berthiaume on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 10:59 am
Each time I see a Jewish person, I want to genocide their race. Every fucking time.
Then close all the US and Canadian embassies in Europe, and UK. Then close all the ambassies that Europe and UK have on US and Canadian soils.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 11:06 am
Then when you are done killing the useless eaters. You shutdown Canada permanently. You move all the population in the South of the US.
Keep only natural ressources extraction hubs in Canada. Transform Québec and Ontario as manufacturing hubs and keep all the pollution in Canada, therefore keeping pristine land sin the south for people to live in.
I am kidding, there is not enough oil left to do what I said above.
Isabelle Lanthier on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 11:47 am
Use the staff working at UN New York head quater as target practice for the army and militia groups. Establish a perimeter around UN head quater, go in the building and kill everyone in the building.
They will be used to kill all humanity living inside the army and militias groups;
Denis Trudel on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 11:58 am
Finally do what I cannot not do before, exterminate all the Whites people living UK and Europe.
Isabelle Lanthier on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 12:01 pm
Don’t worry, I am just fucking with earth population before we kill all of earth population. There is not enough and high IQ people to do what I said above.
Alain laganiere on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 12:02 pm
Don’t worry, I am just fucking with earth population before we kill all of earth population. There is not enough oil left and high IQ people to do what I said above.
francois grendron on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 12:05 pm
If we had enough oil left, I would finish what I could not finish, exterminate all the Whites people living in Europe and UK.
Xero lamarche on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 12:11 pm
I am really repeating myself here. I have already said that.
Welliam Jameson on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 12:17 pm
I need money and a new pick up truck capable of off roading to verify my theory, but I suspect earth population will die before all the tree on earth die. I suspect earth will run out of natural resources before all the trees die.
Isabelle lanthier on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 12:23 pm
Sorry this was badly written. I need money and a new pick up truck capable of off roading to verify my theory, but I suspect earth reality backward degradation clock (death clock) is approaching 0. 0 is where everything is dead and the reality stop.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 12:27 pm
A reality start with a certain number of life cycle. The life cycle are consumed by death or entropic degradation. When the number of life cycle reaches 0, it means that everything is dead.
I suspect that it is really bad out there, but I cannot verify it because I don’t have money and a capable off roading pickup truck.
Alain Lagrange on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 12:33 pm
This is why the little boy leave earth at the end of the video. Because he knows that it is over for earth. See comment above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Stephane Bertand on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 12:44 pm
This is why they are pushing sexual reproduction so much using porn, movie and sex messages in songs. They are trying to beat up death or degradation entropic. degradation entropic mean a less fertile population and the need for higher sexual acts to beat up death and keep the civilisation alive that is based on the slavery of human beings.
Heleine marcotte on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 12:58 pm
This is why I demanded money and a lot of it. To be able to get out and travel around to get more accurate datas to be able to make a better prediction. I need datas that I can only gather with my eyes, ears, touch and smell.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 1:00 pm
We lost 3 year of datas because you did not give me money when I asked for it.
Jean lapierre on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 2:04 pm
Go look at old video in black and white of the Queen Elisabeth with her children. It is another tactic to push the birth rate up and encourage people to have children. It is a way to push the birth rate up using a celebrity status. I suspect that they need really a slave race of beings, humans in that case, so our master can keep themself alive. I also suspect that our masters are full of genetic defects and are really weak physically. I can not stand the fucking British.
isabelle laporte on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 2:07 pm
I am pretty that they have some kind of sound database and some mathematical formula to generate different kind of sounds. They drum sound is perfect. Low frequency of long duration.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1VztRpRf1A&list=RDYzqE9VAhv2c&index=2
Denis Trudel on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 2:28 pm
2:02 death soil. I will assume this soil has not been modified using CGI.
As I said, I am pretty sure that it is really bad out there in term of entropic degradation. I am just unable to confirm my suspicion because I lack money and vehicles. In certain area the backward clock must be closed to zero. fertile soil has been moved somewhere else using water and wind and left only rocks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pPpNmunqJY
alan laporte on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 2:43 pm
0:18 what kind of soil is that, yellow sand or gray sand. Are these mud walls or old concrete wall that are turning in dust.
Look like the fertile soil has been moved somewhere else using water and wind and left only rocks dust coming from the decomposition of rocks into some rocks dust.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ar4SDd512J0
Jean laferme on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 3:01 pm
0:22 brass bullets. Using a lot of copper to fight for a land that is dead and has no real value.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kY4Xygh9DQ
Jean lafourche on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 3:25 pm
They went and wasted all this copper and oil to fight for a land that has no real value and has probably been dead for a long time. WOW
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIPi0CVcX8E
Ladin Laporte on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 3:38 pm
Afghanistan is Obama war. Obama send people fight for a land that has no real value. We wasted all this copper because of Obama.
This cock sucker of Obama is still alive.
Jean laforge on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 9:16 pm
California flag.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_California
A bear and green grass. This should have been the flag of Canada, not the flag of place where there is only sand and heat. There might have been a flood that wash away the fertile soil into the ocean or somewhere else.
Only a big flood come move that much soil from one location to another.
Once the trees are gone, there is nothing holding the soil together. The rock turns into sand because of thermal contraction during the night and thermal expansion during the day. The process slowly breaking the rock in some kind of sand and dust .
Probably what happened in the Middle-East.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 9:24 pm
This is where your fertile soil is, at the bottom of big rivers and oceans.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/2CARbvnDJ20
Isabelle Lanthier on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 9:25 pm
This is where is your fertile soil.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ClFgeeGd-yY
Jean Marie on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 9:30 pm
0:00 the look like a dried up river. You can see the bottom of the river.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uy65g6CcKl8
Marie Leforge on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 9:32 pm
0:20 these are ancients building that were close to the river before it dried up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uy65g6CcKl8
Denis paltable on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 9:41 pm
The first you do when you plan an expedition is to locate the water sources. And you plan your path to make sure that you have easily access to water when exploring.
Isabelle Lanthier on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 10:14 pm
If you run a cheap AC, the ones that you put inside your house and with conduit evacuating the heat outside your house, you will be amazed at how much water you are collecting in your condensation bucket. You have to empty your bucket 5 times a day when it is really humid. Air if full of water vapor.
These are the ones I am talking about:
https://www.rona.ca/fr/produit/climatiseur-portable-blanc-par-danby-de-10-000-btu-5-800-sacc-et-115-v-dpa058b6wdb-330987182
Alain Laganiere on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 10:17 pm
As I said, only the chosen ones will live. Everybody else will die.
Grand laleu on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 10:21 pm
I thought these things, see comments above, were well understood by the scientific communities.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 10:38 pm
Is it accurate that the universities are full of Jewish teachers? Jews are just low IQ inbred losers. Same with the Whites race. Just inbred low IQ mother fuckers who think they are some kind of GOD and know it all. Earth is populated with mentally retarded people. I have made multiple comments about that.
Isabelle Lanthier on Sun, 13th Jul 2025 10:42 pm
Once in a while, someone makes my laugh.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaapwEH7jlk
Denis Trudel on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 1:10 am
I just emptied half of a bucket of water generated by my AC unit. As soon as humidity reach about 60%, the bucket starts to fill up with water. This is a purpose of an AC unit, to lower air temperature therefore creating liquid water.
Cooling periods on earth were probably more frequent that people thinking, with them big floods that change the geography of earth.
Isabel Lantha on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 1:19 am
Global warning is just a story created to decrease oil consumption and safe that is a finite natural ressources. I have never saw a failure of the conservation of mass calculator.
Oil is finite and obeyed the law of conservation of mass.
Alain Berthiaume on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 1:31 am
This is the kind of shit you would expect to see if earth went to a big flood not long ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyMB8e7ZYP0
It completely changes the geography of earth.
Serge Fiori on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 1:42 am
By looking at the building and how it ages, I would say that the last flood happened 200 year ago, or even less.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyMB8e7ZYP0
Denis Trudel on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 1:55 am
Is this a woman or a man? I am not sure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdGukHo82Uw
Look at 0:56 the hip and waist. Typical female form. Plus the nipples are showing up and looks like a small breast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fh4H-KwzmEM
Isabelle Lanthier on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 2:00 am
Look like a Amazonian female with strong legs and a strong chest. Typical hip and waist of a female. See at 3:36. I think about mixed wrestling, a female and male wrestling together as some form of sexual prelude.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGC5NJc6dFE
Denis Trudel on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 2:57 am
Measure it you self.
https://www.rona.ca/fr/produit/climatiseur-portable-blanc-par-danby-de-10-000-btu-5-800-sacc-et-115-v-dpa058b6wdb-330987182
Buy one of these and measure the temperature at entrance and exit of the condenser. Measure the air flow, and measure how much water you get in Kg. This will give you a measure of how much Kg of water there is per Kg of air. This will give you an idea of how much water there is for a specific amont of humidity in %. I am too lazy to do that.
Isabelle Lanthier on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 3:04 am
Measure it your self. It will give on idea of how much rain will fall on earth for each degree Celsius of average air temperature decrease.
Alain Gendron on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 3:13 am
I told you that we are going to kill everyone on earth. I told you that I want to be alone. Either I leave or I kill all the population of earth.
Alberta’s Mid-July Freeze; Siberia’s Summer Shock; The $7 Trillion Fossil Fuel Lie; + Europe Is Rationing Electricity
Denis Trudel on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 3:32 am
You don’t walk to talk to me. Are you upset? I can not feel your energy around me. Are you upset fucking loser. You know you are a loser right. You know you will die right.
Jean lemire on Mon, 14th Jul 2025 7:36 am
I will assume that is real. The guy wearing the square hat. Similar to the map you will find inside Freemasonc lodge. the earth is not round, it is flat.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/knEL71jiEJw
Freemasons
https://static.displate.com/857×1200/displate/2023-05-06/7e3e56ce2def2a189897087d1a6ba1a8_9f8105d3dbdb8648316759c94c1c031a.jpg