It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 7:17 pm
They have a backup plan. They have people like me to rebuild earth into a another dimension far away from earth. They don’t care about earth and its populations. This is their backup plan below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Alain lapor on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 8:07 pm
I told you that I want to alone and I don’t to live among you. Either I leave or I kill the whole population of earth. You could leave earth but I know you won’t do that.
I guess I will have to kill all the population of earth see 10 of july 2025
https://www.meteomedia.com/fr/video/5SMnBbPU?playlist=JfLBohkB
Denis Trudel on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 8:08 pm
I told you that I want to be alone and I don’t want to live among you. Either I leave or I kill the whole population of earth. You could leave earth but I know you won’t do that.
I guess I will have to kill all the population of earth see 10 of july 2025
https://www.meteomedia.com/fr/video/5SMnBbPU?playlist=JfLBohkB
Isabelle Lanthier on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 9:09 pm
Even clothing fabrics can be bought online. You can now stay home and isolate yourself now. It is possible now. The chosen ones will be able to isolate them self while GOD destroy the world. I bough some fabrics there 5 years ago. They modernized their web site.
https://tonitex.com/fr/
You don’t need a car anymore.
Alain Lamarre on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 9:39 pm
Here is the one I am using to make polar fleece jackets and vests. Use this as second layer just below an breathable jacket made of polyester.
265 grams per square meter.
https://tonitex.com/fr/whisper-fleece-uni/3439-9554-whisper-fleece-uni-4052-02.html#/2435-couleur-4052_01
I will live, you will all die.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 10:03 pm
Quick dry, The skin isolation layer. Can be used to make t-shirt. Really confortable and light. Smell bad when cover with sweet over time.
https://tonitex.com/fr/quick-dry/6199-5866-quick-dry-2017.html#/3080-couleur-2017_01
Cheap polar fleece to make my bed sheets. I usually double them. I bought the one with the lower price.
https://tonitex.com/fr/micro-polar-fleece/9731-9949-micro-polar-fleece-1120.html#/2716-couleur-1120_012
You can all go fuck yourself. Including Carney, Legault, France, UK, Europe, Israel, the Jewish, USA, Canada, Québec. You can all die.
I was here to study earth and I did study how earth works. Like the little boy in the video. You can all go fuck yourself.
Ferfnaid Jean on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 10:46 pm
Someone will come and kill all the staff working inside the Israel embassy in the US. Put their fucking cadaver on a stick. Will do the same thing with UK and France.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 10:54 pm
Some one will come an offer and suicidal war pack to the gen Z. after that it is game over, this ends when the electrical grid is down permanently. Before shutting down the electrical grid, the Jews will get it rough and hard, so are politicians, bankers, NGO, think tanks, universities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtjGTrVwRr4
alain lemeir on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 11:29 pm
I told you that I have reincarnated multiple times. Travel through dimensions and that I am an high ranking member inside the divine council. I told you to not fuck with me and insult me with your stupidity. How many of you were aware of something called a suicidal war pact.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtjGTrVwRr4
Isabelle Laforme on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 11:33 pm
4:08 the suicidal war pact exit procedure. Don’t fuck with shit you don’t understand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtjGTrVwRr4
Alain Berthiaume on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 11:44 pm
Look at her fucking face melting aways on screen as the new energy field is being installed. See at 3:15.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zp0T7UmHgs
Sereina lanther on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 12:39 am
The reason Trump put tariff on copper it is because a shortage a copper is coming. Without copper there are no electrical motors no civilisation.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPUSI019011
It is right there in front on your face. The little boy knew about copper. 1:06 an 1:07 in the video below. The little boy knew that earth civilisation would die eventually.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
All this in one fucking song and video coming with it.
Isabelle Lantier on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 12:46 am
They will never tell you why they put copper tariff in place. They never come to you, make a public press conference and explain to you why tariff is needed on copper. They will never tell you that copper is needed to build electrical motor and without it civilisation will die. They will lie to you like they always did in the past.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjJn0NE4afg
Trump work with the deep state, he is the deep state.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 12:55 am
When the father came and said to the little boy I need you help, the little boy knew that earth civilisation was about to die, so he left earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjJn0NE4afg
3:35 the little knew. He left because there were no future on earth.
Isabelle Lanthier on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 1:00 am
‘Hallelujah’: Trump ends 20-year TSA shoe removal rule
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YyjTyL8Yq0
They will talk about shit like that to distract you about what is really happening. They will never tell you the truth about anything, they have never done in the past, they will not start telling you the truth now.
Trump is the deep state.
Jean laforest on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 1:10 am
Trump is just a show man to provide comedic relieve and control people anger. People anger need to be controlled otherwise they could get upset and destroy the infrastructure. The real questions is who controlling Trump. Biden is old news and the auto-pen story is just to distraction, the real question is who is controlling trump.
Isabelle lanthier on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 1:13 am
You will die before you see all the death of the trees on earth. You are way behind schedule. As I said you are just pathetic loser with your COVID and Trump comedy show. You should have gave me money when I asked,
Denis ruelle on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 1:20 am
The trees are not dying fast enough. You are way behind schedule. Earth population will die way before that. I was your last hope and I need money to buy expensive off road capable vehicles. You shit on me instead of helping me. Go fuck yourself.
alain trudeau on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 1:23 am
I was your last hope and I needed money 3 years ago, to buy expensive off road capable vehicles. You shit on me instead of helping me. Go fuck yourself.
Denis Larivere on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 3:54 am
14:33 nobody build a trail like that in the middle on nowhere for no good reasons. Do you know how much work, man power, heavy equipment it take to open a road like that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FS4fa97AxXU
Denis Trudel on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 5:15 am
maybe there is nothing to see out there. Maybe I don’t need money, or a pick up truck. Earth is such a failure. It is a lot of work to own a lot of money. It is probably not worth it, not in a situation where natural ressources are depleted.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqK-aTZK3Pg
Alain laganiere on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 5:28 am
Why work hard when you can sleep 16 hours a day. Owning a pickup truck is a lot of work, you have to maintain this piece of shit. Staying in bed and sleeping are much more pleasurable things to do.
Isabell Lanthier on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 6:15 am
fucking losers. You COVID strategy as a mean to kill undesirables humans did not work. It is a total failure. Everything you do is a failure because fundamentally you are all losers.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 6:21 am
Your Biden Auto-pen story is also not working. You are still unable to identify who run this world. I told you, you are just Fucking loser that failed at everything. On top of that, you failed at giving me money at the appropriate time, you forced me to move into a new life style of voluntary simplicity where I discover that simplicity is priceless and money is just trouble and work. You are just fucking losers.
alain berthiaume on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 6:32 am
You failed at everything. Your COVID did not work at intended and did not reduce the population significantly. The Biden auto-pen story is going no where and did not give any useful information. You did not give me money 3 years ago and forced me to move into a voluntary simplicity life style. I would probably be driving a new car if you gave me money 3 year ago. I would probably never adopted the voluntary simplicity life style and I would still be some how engage in the society. Now I am completely disengage from society. I am even not talking about Carney that is also a big lack of judgment from your part.
This whole operation is a total failure. You are unfit to run these kind of operation.
Jerome villeneuve on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 6:36 am
I want to see how you will fix that shit on a short schedule before we run out of natural resources.
Denis trudel on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 7:15 am
The inside of my left hand is turning white similar to baking soda color. Same with my skin on my forearms. It called that receiving new body upgrades to adapt to the new energy field.
I am still eating here and there but I am losing my appetite. Eventually I will leave earth.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 2:09 pm
I hate Carney, but it nothing compare to how much my invisible self from other past lifes hate him. He hates him more than I do. My invisible self might destroy the earth and kill everyone just because of Carney. I have to contain my other self otherwise he will start yelling and speak a weird language.
Among your multiple failures on this operation, you did not account for the fact that I would like to carry personale protection on me. You did not think about that and how to w to send a personal protection firearms license. Stupid shit. Stupid worthless pieces of shit.
Isabelle Lanthier on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 2:14 pm
Fucking white people. Should have killed all of them while I could. I won’t make the same mistake twice.
Alain Berthiaume on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 2:22 pm
I like how you stupid people think I like the Asians just because I want to kill all Whites people. I like how you see everything in a simplistic manner incapable of complex thought.
I will repeat that, I want to alone and I don’t want to be around you. Either I leave or I kill all of earth population.
Bertraind plasteric on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 2:34 pm
You will die in your flesh body way before the reality disintegrate on its own. You will run out of oil, copper, silver way before the reality disintegrate. You will die inside your flesh bodies like the fucking losers you are. What you are doing is simply not working. GOD I want the whole population of earth dead. This is why the little boy leave earth at the end, he knew same as I know.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 2:42 pm
Trump is deep state. He is even more deep state then Biden was. Biden auto-pen story is just a distract people so they don’t suspect that Trump is deep state.
Look at this disgusting creature called Trump. They always run the same software.
Alain Berthuaime on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 2:49 pm
California To Lose 17% Of Oil Refining Capacity: EIA
In April, Valero Energy Corporation said it would cease operations at Benicia refinery in the Bay Area, which processes 145,000 barrels per day, by April 2026.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/california-lose-17-oil-refining-capacity-eia
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See my comment above.You will die in your flesh body way before the reality disintegrate on its own. You will run out of oil, copper, silver way before the reality disintegrate. You will die inside your flesh bodies like the fucking losers you are. What you are doing is simply not working. GOD I want the whole population of earth dead. This is why the little boy leave earth at the end, he knew same as I know.
Trump your savior. Give me a break. He has been selected because he is good at lying.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 2:54 pm
I am ready to leave earth just pull me out of earth. Pull harder I can take it.
Isabelle Lanthier on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 5:27 pm
What make you think we will let you leave earth. What make you think that you can disintegrate the reality and exit earth using videos and images on people with long necks, face moves forward, dying trees, funny ears, funny. What make you think earth population will ever be allowed to leave earth.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 5:44 pm
2:28 energetic disintegration. It is probably really bad out there. I don’t have a car to go check it out on my own but this is what I suspect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXb3qLHM8ag
Isabelle Lanthier on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 6:42 pm
I told you, you won’t disintegrate the reality with videos like that. I told you the fucking cohesions calculators are locked: gravity, periodic table, chemistry, heat exchange, fluid dynamics, solid assembly and so on.
Nobody is leaving earth, everyone die her except the chosen ones.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRGOZHncap0
Denis Trudel on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 6:54 pm
I think that almost 80% of the calculators are locked. You cannot unlocked or modified them by making videos.
Alain Berthiaume on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 6:56 pm
The fact is that the population of earth stay on earth and die on earth also. Only the chosen ones will leave.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 8:55 pm
I really love this protection bubble you made for me. Looking at fabrics. I found the one that I use all the time for jackets, tactical vest. It has gave me good results.
https://lestissees.com/fr/pages/boutique-schedule
Guess what is the address, 6666 Papineau Avenue, Montréal.
Commander fabric. I highly recommend for jacket as wind breaker. Fucking strong as shit. I did tactical vests with that fabric.
Uses: Ski wear, Jackets, Windsuits, pants, gloves, backpack, tents, running gear and hiking clothes, BBQ, Cars, Bags, Backpack.
Width: 159 cm / 62.5″
Weight: 400 gsm / 12 Oz.
Composition: 15% Cotton, 85% Polyester
Durable Water Repellent (DWR), a specialized coating applied to fabrics to make them water-resistant or hydrophobic.
Wind-resistant: Commander fabric is designed to withstand extreme cold.
Breathable: Designed to allow air to pass through.
Durable
Easy to care for
Easy to sew
I told you, people can not isolate themself from the outside world and avoid contact with people.
Isabelle Lanthier on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 8:56 pm
This the fabric I am talking about:
https://lestissees.com/fr/products/commander-downtek%E2%84%A2-solid-canada-goose-deadstock
Fucking love this fabric.
Alain Berthiaume on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 9:01 pm
I want to be alone. Either I leave or I kill the whole population of earth. You could also leave on your own, but I know you are just parasitic leeches and won’t do that.
I will kill everyone on earth just to be alone. I just don’t want to be around people.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 9:07 pm
You are going to leave earth and leave me alone. You can leave while you are still alive or stay here and die. You choose.
I want earth for myself the whole earth, either you leave or I kill the whole population of earth.
Alain Lagrenade on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 9:20 pm
When my father was seing a cat or dog in the middle of the street, he would accelerate and run over them. This shit is so funny. He hated pick up dog and cat shit on his laws.
And if a dog comes in front of you on the road, just run it over you idiot
https://packaged-media.redd.it/ahnso9vu … e612ae3742
Denis Trudlel on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 9:21 pm
Never stop for a car or dog, just run over them.
https://packaged-media.redd.it/ahnso9vulebf1/pb/m2-res_360p.mp4?m=DASHPlaylist.mpd&v=1&e=1752278400&s=59785cbfd68d14e77d25244422589ce612ae3742
Heline marceau on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 9:28 pm
I told you, you can now isolate yourself while GOD kill all the population of earth.
https://lestissees.com/fr/products/commander-downtek%E2%84%A2-solid-canada-goose-deadstock
https://tonitex.com/fr/admiral/9549-9734-admiral-6101.html#/1482-couleur-6101_01
I have 2 différents store where I can order online the fabric that I need. I can isolate myself until everyone on earth is dead. Finally I can avoid people.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 9:37 pm
Nobody leave earth. Earth was designed as an exécution chamber built around the concept of death and conservation of mass. If you are here on earth it is because you were schedule to die. Fucking French, British, Jews and all the others.
Isabelle Lanthier on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 9:42 pm
Look at Jay Leno face.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NfLEAlZKcKc
Energetic disintegration in real time. I told you that a new energy field would be installed on earth and you need upgrades to match with it and stay alive.
Alain Berthiaume on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 10:48 pm
Apparent Commander is a fabric made is Canada and specially design for Winter. Who call its outdoor fabric commander.
https://www.le-dictionnaire.com/definition/commander
Commander (Verbe)
Intransitif 1er groupe
Avoir droit et puissance de commander, avoir autorité, empire.
———————————————————————–
We are proud to be the Exclusive Distributor of authentic, Canadian-made Commander® fabric.
Wind Resistant, Water Repellant and Highly Durable
Long wearing, easy to care for – and easy to sew
Designed to weather the extreme arctic cold.
Available in over 100+ solid colours!
It is actually a good fiber.
https://www.bradorfabrics.com/collections/commander-solid-colours
———————————————————————–
This fucking planet man
Rejean lemieux on Fri, 11th Jul 2025 10:54 pm
Commander is a really good fabric for outdoor sport and winter. Great wind blocker and perfect as outer shell layer. It is fucking impressive fabric. I am surprised that is done in Canada.
https://www.bradorfabrics.com/collections/commander-solid-colours