It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Denis Laplante on Tue, 8th Jul 2025 5:07 pm
The biological calculator of life track absolutely everything. It comes with a database of life, where every living things has a number attached to it, this number tell us if you are a fish, a human, a cat and dog.
The book of life is the database portion that contain the names of the real humans. We know who they are.
zero abnormale on Tue, 8th Jul 2025 5:38 pm
We track everything, including unauthorized intrusion inside the light and sound spectrum, abnormal modifications of the energy field, abnormal intrusion into the light and sound spectrum. We see everything.
Varain Jenile on Tue, 8th Jul 2025 8:00 pm
This British piece of shit of Carney will bleed to death exactly like I did in past. Fucking Europeans, just low life pieces of the shits.
Regean laflame on Tue, 8th Jul 2025 9:08 pm
Take the children and yourself
And hide out in the cellar
By now the fighting will be close at hand
Don’t believe the church and state
And everything they tell you
Believe in me, I’m with the high command
[Chorus]
Can you hear me, can you hear me running?
Can you hear me running, can you hear me calling you?
Can you hear me, can you hear me running?
Can you hear me running, can you hear me calling you?
[Verse 2]
There’s a gun and ammunition
Just inside the doorway
Use it only in emergency
Better you should pray to God
The Father and the Spirit
Will guide you and protect from up here
[Chorus]
Can you hear me, can you hear me running?
Can you hear me running, can you hear me calling you?
Can you hear me, can you hear me running?
Can you hear me running, can you hear me calling you?
See upcoming pop shows
Get tickets for your favorite artists
You might also like
Edge of the Blade
Journey
Ready 4 Whatever
2Pac
I’ve Seen All Good People
Yes
[Bridge]
Swear allegiance to the flag
Whatever flag they offer
Never hint at what you really feel
Teach the children quietly
For some day sons and daughters
Will rise up and fight while we stood still
[Chorus]
Can you hear me, can you hear me running?
Can you hear me running, can you hear me calling you?
Can you hear me, can you hear me running?
Can you hear me running, can you hear me calling you?
Can you hear me running (can you hear me calling you?)
(Can you hear me) hear me calling you?
(Can you hear me running) hear me running babe?
(Can you hear me running) hear me running?
Calling you, calling you
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmGByG1FKhQ
Denis Trudel on Tue, 8th Jul 2025 9:10 pm
It’s the same kind of story
That seems to come down from long ago
Two friends having coffee together
When something flies by their window
It might be out on that lawn
Which is wide, at least half of a playing field
Because there’s no explaining
What your imagination can make you see and feel
Seems like a dream
They got me hypnotized
Now it’s not a meaningless question
To ask if they’ve been and gone
I remember a talk about North Carolina
And a strange, strange pond
You see the sides were like glass
In the thick of a forest without a road
And if any man’s hand ever made that land
Then I think it would’ve showed
That’s why it seems like a dream
They got me hypnotized
I know that’s right
Seems like a dream
They got me hypnotized
They say there’s a place down in Mexico
Where a man can fly over mountains and hills
And he don’t need an airplane or some kind of engine
And he never will
Now you know it’s a meaningless question to ask
If those stories are right
Because what matters most
Is the feeling you get when you’re hypnotized
Seems like a dream
They got me hypnotized
Seems like a dream
They got me hypnotized
Seems like a dream
They got me hypnotized
Yeah, that’s when, that’s when they got you hypnotized
Seems like a dream
Seems like a dream
Seems like a dream
They got me hypnotized
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDzXbdxeeHI
Isabelle Lanthier on Tue, 8th Jul 2025 10:01 pm
I went to do some grocery shopping on foots. It amazing how the food taste nothing. Bought Cashews lightly salted, tasted nothing. Bought regular chips (not the flavored ones) lightly salted, tasted like nothing.
It is probably not real food anyway. There is not way that foods are needed to kept the body alive.
Regis Lamonte on Tue, 8th Jul 2025 10:57 pm
I remember this song. I listent to it a lot when it came out. I remember the line
Believe in me, I’m with the high command
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmGByG1FKhQ
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 12:35 am
I remember this song. I listent to it a lot when it came out. I remember the line
Believe in me, I’m with the high command
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmGByG1FKhQ
I have made a comment about that. Who is with high command. I am with high command as my raking outside of earth is really high. Go read my past comment.
If they could kill me they would have already done it.
Better you should pray to God
The Father and the Spirit
Will guide you and protect from up here
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 12:41 am
What is on the cover of the album, a men that do car mechanics like I do.
I remember this song. I listent to it a lot when it came out. I remember the line
Believe in me, I’m with the high command
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmGByG1FKhQ
I have made a comment about that. Who is with high command. I am with high command as my ranking outside of earth is really high. Go read my past comments.
If they could kill me they would have already done it. I made comments in past about that. They would have kill me a long time ago if they could.
Better you should pray to God
The Father and the Spirit
Will guide you and protect from up here
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 12:53 am
This is the original video. I think it is self explanatory if you reads my comments.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 1:03 am
1:02 mathematical equation
1:05 the parametric model of earth. I have talk about that.
4:46 leaving earth through a dimensional channel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Everything is there. The key to open to door for dimensional travel. Almost everything is there.
Isabelle Lafume on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 1:24 am
The difference between the video and the current situation is that I will kill all the population of earth before leaving. I will walk over your cadavers after killing you and then leave. See revelation 20.
Gendrom Jeamarie on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 1:46 am
Yes I will kill the whole population of earth because of Canada firearms. Watch me going.
Ferdinand Marcos on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 1:47 am
Yes I will kill the whole population of earth because of Canada firearms laws. Watch me going.
Jean trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 2:00 am
0:59 clothing people work when working around a blast furnace. I also talk about that. I said that earth is a matrix of solid only modifiable by heat. Almost everything is there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 2:02 am
4:02 hot liquid steel, typical yellow.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Alan Berthima on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 2:14 am
Notice the sequence first the people wearing heat protective clothing’s, after that he is writing down mathematical equations. We did I said, earth is a matrix of solid only modifiable by heat. See at 0:59.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 2:37 am
0:35 the key of knowledge and the key to access the dimensional travelling tunnel. à
0:55 the knowledge being sent to him
0:59 people wearing heat protective clothing
1:01 writing the knowledge he received in the form of mathematical equations.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Anita Laplace on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 3:09 am
His father was not an human, he was a time traveller. he gave to his son as birthday gift the key of knowledge and access the dimensional travelling tunnel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 3:33 am
Father was a time traveller. Where he came from they probably control the biological calculator of life. This is why they were able to bring his son incognito on earth. I spoke about that in previous comments also. They have access to interfaces not the inside of the biological calculator of life. The interface let them chose the color of a dog, the size at maturity and so on.
They dont control the reproduction process that is inside the calculator.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 3:45 am
Teach the children quietly
For some day sons and daughters
Will rise up and fight while we stood still
I explain how to do that in previous comments. I said to include milita groups with the army and some electricians to shut down lights and elevator a building. I gave to you some military tactics. I explain that you also need to go after the Jews, new born babies and young fertile girls.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 3:55 am
I told you that I would kill all the population of earth. I fucking told you to not insult me with your stupid Canada firearms laws.
Yukon Swings From Heat To Snow; Foot Of Summer Snow Blankets The Alps; + BOM’s Winter Bust: Australia Freezes, Powder Piles Up
Betrand plastic on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 4:22 am
His son came down on earth to study how earth is built mathematically speaking. This is why we see mathematical equations on the screen. Once his knowledge is judged advanced enough, his son left earth to go into another dimension. Made comments about that saying that only the chosen ones will live. Exactly like in the video. Her mother stay while he leaves. Notice he does not cry and leave her behind to die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Ferniand Yelam on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 4:57 am
While on earth the kid study
physic and the concept of heat at 0:59
mathematics at 1:01
music at 1:03
geology and parametric mathematic at 1:06
Almost everything I talk about is in this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Pierre Ferland on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 5:02 am
The kid is not on earth to save earth and its population. He is here to study earth. When his leaning is done he is leaving and abandoning earth and its people. Exactly like I have been doing.
The only difference is that I will kill all the population of earth before leaving.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 5:11 am
can you hear me calling you? – can you hear my telepathic messages.
Everything is almost there in this song.
Elain Marcotte on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 5:15 am
This is really the original video, except for the long neck, funny ears, funny hands. THIS IS REALLY THE REAL VIDEO AS DONE IN 1986.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 9:30 am
Is this the really original video, except for the long neck, funny ears, funny hands. IS THIS THE REALLY THE REAL VIDEO AS DONE IN 1986.
They even talking about guns:
There’s a gun and ammunition
Just inside the doorway
Use it only in emergency
As if they knew I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. Almost everything is in this video.
If this is the real video, it means the futur is already written and indeed everyone on earth will die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 9:38 am
Swear allegiance to the flag
Whatever flag they offer
Never hint at what you really feel
This is the American politician swear allegiance to the Israel flag instead of the US flag. Almost everything is in there.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 9:41 am
Almost everything is in the song.
WATCH LIVE: Sec. Pete Hegseth welcomes Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MyGgfYA91BE
Including Americans politicians swearing allegiance to the flag of Israel.
Everyone will be killed on earth if this is the original song.
alain berthiaume on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 9:45 am
The future is already written and I will get to walk over your cadavers as written in the bible also.
jean lapieere on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 9:48 am
I think I will cry of joy just thinking about your cadavers lying on the ground.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 9:53 am
Notice I never talked about immigrants invading Canada or the rest of the world. It is because I dont care. I am here to learn,not to help earth and its population. I made comments in the past about not being on earth to help.
I don’t care about earth and its population. I never did, this is why I don’t care about earth being invaded by some unidentified beings
Alain jamel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 9:58 am
You are all going to die as per revelation 20, I am so happy just thinking about it. The future is already decided.
Denis trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 10:08 am
I always knew I was not supposed to help, Québec, Canada, the US or the world other than commenting. This song confirm it.
isabelle lanthier on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 10:10 am
Look at her fucking face. I am here to watch you die, the same way I am watching her die in front of the world
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7Kx6NO-0vA
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 10:12 am
I told you that I needed guns for temporary psychological support, and Canada refused me that.
There’s a gun and ammunition
Just inside the doorway
Use it only in emergency
Isabelle lanthier on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 10:14 am
I told you that I needed guns for temporary psychological support, and Canada refused me that.
There’s a gun and ammunition
Just inside the doorway
Use it only in emergency
I told you that I would kill all the population of earth for this insult.
Mathieu berthaume on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 10:21 am
I never care that earth was being destroyed by beings moving in. This is why I rarely talk about immigration. I don’t care about the destruction of earth. I care about knowledge, exactly like in the song. Every thing is in the fucking song, it is unbelievable.
Rejean villena on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 10:33 am
Look at their faces. Look at them dying on tv in front of the whole world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZWeG4FfWZg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7Kx6NO-0vA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-wK3YKAB-g
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 10:49 am
I always knew that I was not supposed to help but instead watch you die. I was here to see how a civilization based around the concept of death dies. I was here to see the failure of sexual reproduction. I was never here to help you.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 11:06 am
I cannot believe this shit. Everything is in a song. The whole future of earth is inside a song and including my future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 11:30 am
The phrase “chains of darkness” is a biblical metaphor that appears in the New Testament. It describes the condition of certain fallen angels who are kept in a state of confinement until the final judgment. The “chains” symbolize a binding that prevents escape or further rebellion, while “darkness” represents evil and judgment
Look at their faces. Look at them dying on tv in front of the whole world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZWeG4FfWZg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7Kx6NO-0vA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-wK3YKAB-g
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 11:48 am
There you go again. Some real truth about life on earth inside a movie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSLscJ2cY04
Donals Trump on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 11:53 am
He is talking about Trump in the clip above and how Trump do business. Trump works with the mafia to reduce building cost, not the legitime way. Trump always suck Jews dick for a cheap buck.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSLscJ2cY04
https://www.ulyces.co/news/une-courte-histoire-des-liens-entre-donald-trump-et-la-mafia/
Donald Trumpy on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 12:02 pm
It is really the ends of times. It is becoming more and more obvious as time goes on. As I said multiple time, only the chosen ones will live or the people with their names in the book of life.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 12:14 pm
I started to suspect 3 or 4 year ago that there were some time traveller like me that were send on earth to see how a reality based around the concept of death and sexual reproduction dies. These special ones receive the personal protection of angel and a personal doctor to make that the transition from a flesh body to an body capable of dimensional travelling is successful.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 12:53 pm
Now you understand why I demanded money. I needed to drive around and see with my own eyes what is happening.
Alain jamal on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 1:30 pm
Power wagon. Perfect for off road exploration. I saw one driving next to me while I was walking to the grocery. Fuck they are big. I think you can remove the back seats and sleep there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3J7iDHJe8U
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 2:05 pm
Someone will come, and will exterminate all the Jews out of earth. They (invisible ones) hate the Jews just as much as I do if not more.
Biden a friend of Israel, is like being already dead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9pVinHQSBA