It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Laust Jean on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 2:06 pm
Being a friend of Israel, is like being already dead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9pVinHQSBA
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 2:11 pm
All I see on this video is dead people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9pVinHQSBA
cereale Jean on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 2:16 pm
All I see when I look at politicians, federal, province, municipale is dead people. I see the future and I see cadaver everywhere.
Denis trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 2:28 pm
Expect more of this as the planet is cooling down. Expect more of this as we are installing a new energy field adapted only for the humans hybrid that have received upgrades. Expect a lot of weird shits to happen while we install a new energy field. Expect more people to die, more people to suddenly vanish, more cold, more rain, less sun, more dying trees, more dying insects, more dying grass, more people looking ugly, more people behaving bizare.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i05QNgL0GvI
Yukon Swings From Heat To Snow; Foot Of Summer Snow Blankets The Alps; + BOM’s Winter Bust: Australia Freezes, Powder Piles Up
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 2:35 pm
Expect all kind of weird shit to happen while we install the new energy field
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMsGHmGxyxo
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 5:37 pm
Really quiet on YouTube. YouTube is also dying like everything else. What you don’t like th truth. You dont like my last comment.
You don’t like the fact that they are hiding messages inside a song or a movie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 5:43 pm
What you don’t like the fact that there is time traveller visiting earth and you don’t know about it. You don’t like that some time traveler are with high command and you don’t know about it. You are upset fucking cock suckers.
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 5:52 pm
You don’t like the fact that time travelers are poor men and the rich and the elites are completely kept in the dark. You don’t like the fact that the most powerful beings on earth are poor. It breaks down earth social model where only the powerful and well connected should have access to privileges information first.
You don’t like that you have to learn that looking at a video music.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 6:13 pm
As soon as I was born I had and angel assigned to me to protect me. They were there with me when I was taking my engineer exams and recorded everything through my eyes.
That is what is making you upset, it upset you that the natural structure of power of earth was not informed, about these time traveller under divine protection coming from another dimension.
It upset you that they care more about knowledge than power and fame. You upset because you just realized that all of you are pathetic losers.
alain marcotte on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 6:32 pm
One good think about the EPA fuel regulation. It forced the manufacturers to build really good pickup, expedition type of pickup to explore far away places. This is because of the EPA regulations.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUVbugicO90
Bertand Jean on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 6:58 pm
They have a Torsen differential in the front on the Tremor package. I think it is a interesting concept instead of a full locker in the front. Loading capacity is better then a power wagon. I like both trucks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUVbugicO90
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 7:01 pm
Loading capacity is important if you plan to bring instruments to mesure the light spectrum and heat spectrum. I see more things with my eyes in the absolute darkness.
Natalie Lapierre on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 7:06 pm
You must be really upset that a poor person receive all kind of body upgrades including an improved vision. It was not suppose to work this way, that poor people were given more attention then the powerful and well connected people. We were not supposed to bypass earth power structure (politicians, bankers, NGO, think tank) and go directly to the poor to get the job done.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 7:23 pm
A none Jews was not supposed to receive an hybrid body. It was supposed to be reserved for the chosen ones: the Jews. We broke another planet earth power structure rule, we bypass the Jewish people entierly.
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 7:52 pm
All feminized skinny men. Same body shape as female beach volleyball. Always the same fucking body shape. Flash ass, flat belly, flat chest.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpaCXtahXxk&list=RDi17mgRK3GX8&index=2
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 8:01 pm
Facing slapping. A BDSM sexual fantasy. Directly out of BDSM porn. See at 1:22.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPOIS5taqA8&list=RDi17mgRK3GX8&index=3
Denis Allan on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 8:12 pm
You can see that I have invisible beings feeding me my off information so I can give them my analysis. These comments are not for earth people, they are for people living in another dimension. I simply don’t care about earth and its population. I am just temporary traveller, as soon as my body is ready I will leave earth. I don’t want to be here around all of you.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 8:35 pm
I don’t want to be here around all of you. I want to be alone. There is only 2 ways this can end, either I leave, or I kill all the population of earth so I can have earth for me alone.
Either way, I want to be alone.
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 8:56 pm
Lot of interesting comment about gen X in there that I can relate to:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/gen-z-useful-idiot-generation
Total horse****. GenX did no such thing. Gen X was small and left alone by the arrogant and useless boomer generation and our numbers were too small to ever gain power. That is why we have all these Geriatic boomers still around. Some of them dying in office like Feinstein. It is all good though. GenX made software that actually worked and didn’t spy on you. We also were self sufficient because we had to be and still do good trade work.
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Blaming GenX for political correctness is pure unadulterated horse ****. We had no power yet in the 9Os. We were just starting out. That was boomers muh man, or whoever TF wrote this silly article.
And whats up with calling GenZs ignorant? Just because you don’t support tiny hat genocide you are ignorant? Baba Bouey baby boomer ******** right there. Penn and Stein, Every Single Time..
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White zoomers are either becoming trannies/Marxists or they’re becoming the Hitler Youth and there’s little in-between.
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Boomers, Millennials and the mentally handicapped GenZ are all useful idiots to the parasitic class.
Only GenX is savvy enough to work out what’s going on AND do something about it.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 9:07 pm
Boomers hated Gen X and loved Millennials and Millennials hated Gen Z and Gen X can relate to Z. Pick your poison…
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I always had these feelings that our parents hates us. Boomers were just shit people. Yes I relate to gen Z when I see them not working hard at home depot. I can relate to the internal sabotage they are doing on this civilisation, same as sabotage I did.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/gen-z-useful-idiot-generation
Denis Tudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 9:10 pm
Boomers hated Gen X and loved Millennials and Millennials hated Gen Z and Gen X can relate to Z. Pick your poison…
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/gen-z-useful-idiot-generation
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Gen X and Gen Z working together to create chaos inside the West, Working together toward total destruction of the West, Yes, I can see that also. Really interesting comment.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 9:54 pm
I can see Gen X and Z working together in a suicidal war pact. It is when you go to war to destroy everything including the infrastructures and die in the process. You expect to die during war and you are fine without. The most destructive thing ever seen, a suicidal war pact.
Alain Legault on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 9:56 pm
I can see Gen X and Z working together in a suicidal war pact. It is when you go to war to destroy everything including the infrastructures and die in the process. You expect to die during war and you are fine with it. The most destructive thing ever seen, a suicidal war pact.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 10:06 pm
Wait until someone comes out of nowhere and proposes to the Gen Z a suicidal war pact. You will see something unique.
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 10:13 pm
Fury road movie is using this concept of suicidal war pact with the war boys. It is not the pure concept but it is close to it. The war boy is a suicidal war pact made with the
leader.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtjGTrVwRr4
The whole tribe is held together using the suicidal war pact. It has been done before. Why do you think they created the UN, human right tribunal and war tribunal.
Slalome Grenon on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 10:23 pm
You tell the young men, you have no future but I can give you a way out of this world (suicide by war) and have fun while exiting this world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtjGTrVwRr4
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 11:00 pm
A pure suicidal war pact always comes with the full destruction of the infrastructures. once the infrastructures are destroyed your death is assured or your suicide is assured. 7:09, it is a warrior thing, people would not understand
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nGT5pwEEGA
Jean Lariviere on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 11:07 pm
Smoking a cigarette at 9:20. Same as Constantine. Smoking is part of hero mythology. A real warrior smoke, he is single and highly intelligent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nGT5pwEEGA
Isabelle Jamal on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 11:21 pm
these fucking trails that nobody is driving on, but the trees never grow on them, only grass.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRneI6GX07A
Alain Lamarre on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 11:33 pm
These fucking trails. Feel like someone is maintaining them and cutting the trees that fall down on them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRneI6GX07A
Denis Trudel on Wed, 9th Jul 2025 11:54 pm
These fucking roads, as soon as you get out of the truck the mosquitos are all over you, as if they won’t you there. road had been open 20 year ago, yet it feel like someone is maintaining it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlA3fIdYoN4
Isabelle Lanthier on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 12:02 am
These fucking roads. You cannot understand why someone would build a road there and maintain it with his own money.
Now it’s not a meaningless question
To ask if they’ve been and gone
I remember a talk about North Carolina
And a strange, strange pond
You see the sides were like glass
In the thick of a forest without a road
And if any man’s hand ever made that land
Then I think it would’ve showed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDzXbdxeeHI
Freain Laporge on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 12:12 am
These Fucking trails that should not there that nobody owns but they are maintain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-38pJX6V0fs
Denis Trudel on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 4:52 am
Antarctica Below -80C (-112F); Relentless Snowstorms Slam Australian Alps; Mont Blanc Hits -17.7C — Coldest July Low On Record?; + Why “100-Year Floods” Happen All The Time
I told you that I want to be alone. I don’t want to be around you. Only 2 way for me to alone, either I leave or I kill all the population of earth.
Isabelle Lanthier on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 5:13 am
I want to be alone. I don’t want to live among all of you. Either I leave or I kill every living thing on earth. These are my options:
1- Killing earth and its population
Antarctica Below -80C (-112F); Relentless Snowstorms Slam Australian Alps; Mont Blanc Hits -17.7C — Coldest July Low On Record?; + Why “100-Year Floods” Happen All The Time
2- Or leaving earth
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Denis Trudel on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 6:13 am
Notice that when the kid leave earth, he leaves earth with all the knowledge needed to rebuild another earth somewhere else far away from them. This is why the father says to him, I need your help.
0:57 knowledge about electricity
0:59 knowledge about heat and metal casting
1:01 knowledge about computer programming
1:02 knowledge about mathematics
1:03 knowledge about music and sounds
1:04 knowledge about geology, periodic table and earth mathematical parametric model
Really well done video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Jearm Ssleimna on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 6:22 am
I want to be alone. Either I leave or I kill everyone living on earth.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 7:39 am
This is not cause only because of inflation. Population is shrinking because of low birth rate but they will never tell you that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6M4HwF3tU5g
I am almost sure that it is worst than they are showing us on TV. I just don’t have a car to go drive around and see it with my own eyes.
Isabelle Lanthier on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 7:41 am
Cause by entropic degradation because earth is a reality based around the concept of death. I am pretty sure it is bad out there. See at 0:17.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6M4HwF3tU5g
Alain Berthiaume on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 7:45 am
Caused by entropic degradation. Earth is a reality based around the concept of death. I am pretty sure it is bad out there.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/mN8guvFxcbc
Denis Lamarche on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 8:07 am
Really not that hot here in Montreal. I stop my window AC before going to bed and I start it in the morning. Without the sun, it feel like fall. I told you, either I leave or I kill everyone living on earth. I want to be alone.
erod lamarche on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 8:13 am
The chocolate industry is facing a new era of chronic shortages and record-high prices across cocoa beans, butter, powder, and paste, sparking structural supply disruptions across North America and Europe. At the heart of the crisis is West Africa, where countries such as Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon—responsible for 75% of global cocoa production—have been severely impacted by years of adverse weather and crop diseases.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/cocoa-supply-crunch-shown-one-chart
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It is not crop diseases, it is caused by entropic degradation same as oranges. That is what happen when you build a reality based around the concept of death.
Isabelle Lanthier on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 8:42 am
Where people see diseases, I see entropic degradation. Where people see diseases, I see earth death (entropy) algorithm working as it is supposed.
Causality as the Merovingian of the Matrix would say.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHW0FgiB7TI
I want to be alone. Either I leave or I kill all the population of earth.
lamarche jean on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 8:48 am
Are you fucking nervous. Are you afraid that some people will come to kill you and your family. Are you afraid that some people will come to kill all the FDA staff. You look afraid to me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUbfQy9AAL0
Elain Skowky on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 9:04 am
I want to be alone. There only 2 ways to achieve that, either I leave or I kill all the population of earth. This is not negotiable.
Denis rudel on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 1:13 pm
You are not authorized to be inside my energetic field. Just leave my energetic field or I kill all the population of earth.
Alind durea on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 1:17 pm
Earth energic field belong to me and I am supposed to alone inside of it. Just leave now.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 6:09 pm
Talking about the fucking immigrants again. Incapable of seeing the bigger picture of what is really happening. Incapable of seeing the earth as a set of mathematical equations. Fuck losers. Earth really deserve to be destroyed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aztk9Zi9_no
You should have gave me money when I asked you. I was trying to help you. Go fuck yourself and die.
Isabelle Lanthier on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 6:27 pm
your fucking fixation on immigrants is embarrassing. Do You have any ideas how your behaviors look for above. You know you behave like fucking losers right.
UK and France to trial new migrant deal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4s4FPPJuKRQ
Isbelle Lanthier on Thu, 10th Jul 2025 7:06 pm
Fucking low IQ losers. You have been running this shit show with long neck, COVID, face moved forward, empty mouths, funny hands, and you still don’t have any real results. You are just fucking losers, you work hard to plan this operation and you have nothing to show for. Meanwhile death is killing everything, oranges, cacao beans, tomatoes, cattle, pigs, chicken, wheat. You have nothing to show for fucking losers. All this hard work and barely any concret results.
Should have gave me the money when I asked 3 years ago instead of make fun of me.