It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Isabelle Jean on Sun, 20th Jul 2025 8:08 am
I understand now why they decided to flood earth. They had enough of this kind of crap and decided to kill everyone on earth. They had Enough of Gutfeld face, enough of Carney face, enough of Trump face, enough JD Vance beard, enough of Prince Charles, enough of Jimmy Kimmel.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 20th Jul 2025 8:25 am
Same fucking theater, same fucking routine day after day after after day and still no measurables results. Still continuing with the same strategy that is not working hoping it will miraculously give some real results.
Trump will meet with UK King Charles. Same fucking theater over and over with no real result. I understands now why they flooded earth.
Incapable of giving me money so I can drive around and see with my owns eyes what is happening.
Same fucking theater. Trump signing executive order over and over and over again.
Jean lemdire on Sun, 20th Jul 2025 8:34 am
Same fucking strategy over and over with these kind of videos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9M04ZKSOlM
Yet the calculators of cohesion are still holding tight: thermal, chemical, entropic, mechanics.
Same fucking failed strategy that is unable to provide actual results, might as well flood earth and kill everyone.
Isabelle stjean on Sun, 20th Jul 2025 8:39 am
Is there a moment where you will admit that you failed and just give up.
Daniel vernon on Sun, 20th Jul 2025 9:06 am
Same fucking farming videos over and over, yet still no real result. The same cycle over and over. You failed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mL724UkbtE
Denis Trudel on Sun, 20th Jul 2025 11:03 am
I bet this is fucking fake. I bet the weather calculator knows it is fake. I bet the AI looked at the temperature, pression, humidity in South Korea and check if a flood is possible. The calculator will know if you lie just making a calculator over South Korea.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zS2EevdbVG8
I really don’t like you at all.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 20th Jul 2025 1:52 pm
This is what you are supposed to see just before the big flood. Eventually the area flooded will increase. This will be a worldwide thing.
Eventually it will start to rain for a whole month. Then it will stop and will restart again, but this time it will rain for a whole year.
I told you that I would kill the whole population of earth. I want to be alone. Either I leave or I kill all the population of earth. Apparently we will kill all the population of earth so I can be alone forever.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5vi0uHtDYFY
Isabelle Lanthier on Mon, 21st Jul 2025 3:49 pm
It is not supposed to work this way on earth. The ugly and fat one is not supposed to win. The pretty one is supposed to humiliate the fat one and win against the ugly one. Everyone knows that. Fat people are not supposed to be healthy, only the skinny ones are allowed to be healthy on earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgi2jO-rfJk
Alain Gendron on Mon, 21st Jul 2025 4:05 pm
You are not supposed to tell the truth. You are not supposed to say that big and fat people are really lethal and are good warriors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5aqqfh6u6yY
Jean Marie on Mon, 21st Jul 2025 4:21 pm
They refuse to say that fat and big people are superior to skinny people in almost every aspects: intelligent, physical force, lethality. It has been like that since I am born.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 21st Jul 2025 4:38 pm
Fat, big and ugly people were controlling the world at one point. It will go back the way it was. Skinny short means unhealthy. These skinny people will not survive. They always die first.
Jean Marie on Mon, 21st Jul 2025 4:52 pm
Notice that the traditional image of the the buddha is that of a fat big man. Notice the earth in his hand. Could be seen as earth is mine. See my comment above.
https://loveandbubblegum.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/laughing-buddha-statue.jpg
Isabelle lanthier on Mon, 21st Jul 2025 4:57 pm
Notice that sumo wrestlers are also fat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tX95vNuShw
The skinny short man is everywhere. It is an aberration and the collapse will fix that. They always die first.
Alain Gendron on Mon, 21st Jul 2025 5:01 pm
If I remember correctly, the skinny body is not well adapted for dimensional travelling. Fat and big is the optimal vehicle for dimensional travel.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 21st Jul 2025 5:12 pm
If you are fat, and you stop eating or you reduce your calories intake, and you are not losing weight, this means you are at the right size and weight for dimensional travelling. Most likely you can stop eating at this point.
Isabelle Lnathier on Mon, 21st Jul 2025 5:26 pm
I made a comment about certain women that would ride you so good. Meaning they were good at pleasing men sexually. This is what this song is all about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlZEdyo6uwY
These bitches knew how to fuck.
Jean Marie on Mon, 21st Jul 2025 6:09 pm
The biggest lie ever told is that we need food and water to stay alive. You need to go out there and work to earn money so you can buy food. Food is a slavery trick created to force people into working for a living. It is to force us to build something for them. Well if you are a chosen one, you don’t need food and water to stay alive. If you are not a chosen one, well maybe you need to eat to stay alive, I don’t know.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 23rd Jul 2025 11:58 am
I will kill all the population of earth just because I can.
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 23rd Jul 2025 12:41 pm
Let’s see how many more comments I will write today. This could be my only 2 comments today. There is some people more powerful then you fucking whore. You know who you are. There are beings much more powerful and above you stupid whore.
AI Game Store on Fri, 25th Jul 2025 2:10 am
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Jean Lemire on Fri, 25th Jul 2025 3:31 pm
New York seal is easy to analyse. It has two women on it with a King crown next to the feet of one women. King crown represent masculinity. It means we will create a new land, North America, that will be based on a matriarcal form of governance. This is why there is two women. The middle of the seal is North America.
The globe of top represent the final goal, create a matriarcal form of governance for the whole planet. North America will be the place from which matriarchal form of governance will be implemented first after that it will be be propagate through the rest of the world.
The sword and the balance represent equality. It means we will kill who ever is stopping us in our goal to establish a matriarcal from of governance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seal_of_New_York_(state)#/media/File:Seal_of_New_York_(state).svg
Jean Marchal on Fri, 25th Jul 2025 9:41 pm
James Bond Moonraker. The female scientist is called Goodhead. What Goodhead means in the urban language. 18:17 I am looking for doctor Goodhead.
https://www.bilibili.tv/en/video/4786841715872768?bstar_from=bstar-web.ugc-video-detail.related-recommend.all
Meaning of doctor GoodHead in the urban dictionary. I cannot figure out if they are making fun of us or if they are serious in their attempt to boost men sexual appetite.
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=goodhead
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=give%20good%20head
Denis Trudel on Fri, 25th Jul 2025 9:44 pm
Here she is Holly Goodhead of moonraker.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holly_Goodhead
Jean marie on Fri, 25th Jul 2025 10:15 pm
81:21 and forward. Sexual hypnosis. Some men went alone in the forest and had sex with multiple women under a sexual hypnosis trance.
They woke up the next morning and thought it was a dream, when it was not.
https://www.bilibili.tv/en/video/4786841715872768?bstar_from=bstar-web.ugc-video-detail.related-recommend.all
Jean Marie on Wed, 30th Jul 2025 1:47 pm
Yukon flag is easy to interpret. The two red triangles represent mountains and the direction of travel. The white lines represent the waves leave behind the ship as it travels to other lands. The circle with bleu and white squares represent the sail of the ship. the four white square represents the four corners of the world or a far away land. To reach the far way land you have to travel thought the artic ice. The flower are the Bottom represent the land from which the ship departed.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/flag-of-Yukon
Denis Trudel on Wed, 30th Jul 2025 3:49 pm
You are making a big mistake to think that I am your friends and I am here to help earth and its population. I am just waiting for my departure time out of earth.
Isabelle Lantjier on Thu, 31st Jul 2025 11:44 am
Trying to extract knowledge out of me such as the meaning of Yukon flag but incapable of giving me money. You can all go fuck yourself. Incapable of doing anything nice for me and helping in a real way. Just try to suck the best out of me for your personal benefit as always.
What me you think I should share my knowledge with earth population.
Alain Gendron on Thu, 31st Jul 2025 12:07 pm
Your piece of shit operation is not working and yield no results. You are back to square one. Restart again with a new concept that does not involve long neck and face moved forward. Fucking piece of shit low IQ. You are just fucking failure. Nothing is working you cannot leave earth and you cannot collapse the fake sky. Nothing you do is working. It is because you are fucking loser. You are even not intelligent enough to send me money so I can go around and seek inspiration and ideas form other location outside where I currently live. Just go fuck yourself. I am done sharing my knowledge with you.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 31st Jul 2025 12:42 pm
I like your useless hypothesis that you will over inflate the debt by printing money and collapse the system. Who is going to come and rebuilt it using manual labor, gen Z. I don’t think so that gen Z are going to come to rebuild anything.
If you don’t give me money now. I would be able to prepare ahead for the collapse. There will be no rebuilding after the collapse, gen X, gen Z and millennia’s won’t shou up to rebuild anything. I need to be setup before this whole shit show goes down.
I think it is obvious, but you are just low IQ losers. I tried to help you, I know I did my best, I know that you failed me in spectacular fashion.
Jean maire on Thu, 31st Jul 2025 9:21 pm
J
This whole operation is a total failure and have not yield any real measurable results.
This is the clown show I am talking about below and that not achieve anything substancila.
https://www.youtube.com/@ForbesBreakingNews/videos
https://www.youtube.com/@FoxNews/videos
https://www.youtube.com/@msnbc/videos
https://www.youtube.com/@ColbertLateShow/videos
https://www.youtube.com/@RealTime/videos
Fucking failure of gigantic proportions. A total waste of time and energy. You want me to help you for free. Go fuck yourself.
Isabelle Lanthier on Thu, 31st Jul 2025 9:22 pm
The same clown show day after day after day. Same long necks and same faces moved forward, same beards, same plastic hands, same fuck up eyes. Still no results have been achieved, people have not been liberated from the flesh bodies, the sky is still blue and show no sigh of collapsing or changing into something else.
https://www.youtube.com/@ForbesBreakingNews/videos
https://www.youtube.com/@FoxNews/videos
https://www.youtube.com/@msnbc/videos
https://www.youtube.com/@ColbertLateShow/videos
https://www.youtube.com/@RealTime/videos
Fucking failure of gigantic proportions. A total waste of time and energy. You want me to help you for free. Go fuck yourself.
Denis trudel on Thu, 31st Jul 2025 9:40 pm
Maybe you are not supposed to leave earth ever. Maybe all the population of earth is supposed to die here. Maybe earth is a prison and execution chamber for bad souls. Stupid cock suckers.
Isabell lantheir on Thu, 31st Jul 2025 10:03 pm
I see all of you holding your whites sheets of paper as if it will help you collapse earth reality and help you leave earth. You all die here as it was supposed to be. Again where are all the real results that you have achieved by holding your fucking white sheets of paper.
The only you have achieved is to upset me and turn me against you. Fucking losers.
Alain gendron on Thu, 31st Jul 2025 10:06 pm
I see this piece of shit Gutfeld with his Whites sheets of paper. Tell me what results you have achieved with him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyRuUkac1Xw
Densi Trudel on Thu, 31st Jul 2025 10:12 pm
You should have gave me the money I was asking for 3 years ago, instead. Where are the fucking measurables results. Immigrants are still coming in. What is Gutfeld good for with his whites sheet of paper. Fucking losers.
Isabelle Lanthier on Thu, 31st Jul 2025 10:37 pm
Fucking low IQ losers. You know that having money is a burden not a gift. I would need to hire an account to manage my money. This complicate my life instead of making it simpler. Now summer is almost over and I was unable to go into to forest to see what is happening there. I was unable to gather datas and get a clear picture of what is happening.
All of you deserve to stay on earth and die like the pathetic dogs you all are.
I know I did my best and I know also that you failed me.
Everyone will know that I have money once I show up with a power wagon updated with expedition gears, special night lighting, special winch and so on. This makes my life a nightmare.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 31st Jul 2025 11:34 pm
Same fucking garbage since COVID. Trump, Israel, Ukraine, antisemitism, Biden and you still have nothing to show for. Everyone year natural ressource get more depleted and more immigrants are coming. You still have nothing to show for. You are just fucking losers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00mjZuhDHQk
Isabelle Lanthier on Thu, 31st Jul 2025 11:44 pm
4:06 this kind of fucking facial side view same as Carney do, that not giving you any results. Same fucking boring facial algorithm everywhere on the web and yet still no fucking measurable result. As time goes by natural resources get depleted while you play this useless game of side facial view at 4:06. And you are still not sure if it is a good idea to give me money or not. Everything has failed and you still not sure if you should give me money. Fucking losers.
You must some kind of real stupid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jj87JxiH-KI
Jean marie on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 12:03 am
Why this movie was on my front YouTube page.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qR5ZDH0DCc
まち針ゲーム on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 12:19 am
The debate on peak oil demand is intriguing! It’s crucial to consider emerging economies and tech impacts. Check out this fun diversion: まち針ゲーム.
Alain Gendron on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 12:21 am
Kill the politicians yourself. You don’t need me for that. Kill the EPA staff yourself, you don’t need me for that.
I understand that you might upset at what they did to your nation, but it is not my problem.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 12:39 am
Yes I am born in 1967. I remember how violent the movies in the 1970 era were. As soon as TV color became the norm, the movie became violent almost immediately. Violence in movies started as soon the TV color was created.
Denis Jamal on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 12:41 am
A good revolution always start by killing the politicians first.
ISabelle lanthier on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 12:51 am
GOD will take care of the killing. Just sit back and enjoy.
Alain gendron on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 12:54 am
You can kill much more efficiently by changing the energy field or using a flood. If you are a chosen one, you will live.
Jean Lemire on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 1:00 am
I told you, that around 1980 it felt like earth entered a accelerated time vortex. You could see that in the movies also. In fact the accelerate time vortex might have started around 1970. I was too young to remember that part of my life.
The accelerated time vortex could have started as soon as I was born, but I was a baby back then and don’t remember that part of my life.
It is possible that the accelerated time vortex started with the invention of the TV color.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qR5ZDH0DCc
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 1:05 am
The introduction of the TV color is probably when the accelerated time vortex started. It started around 1970.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_introduction_of_color_television_in_countries_and_territories
Magnum force has been release in 1973. Almost as soon as the color TV was introduced.
Isabelle Lanthier on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 1:09 am
For the Canada:
A mandatory transition to color for all transmitters took place between 1969 and 1976 on all English and French channels.
For the US:
By the end of 1966 (Since 1966-67 season), prime-time was all-color, but an ever-dwindling number of daytime, local and educational programs continued in black-and-white for a few more years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_introduction_of_color_television_in_countries_and_territories
Remember I am born in 1967. There is a reason for that, I don’t know why, but there is a reason for that.
Jean lamarche on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 1:13 am
The accelerated time vortex started around 1967. I said 1980 but I think it is a mistake. I was too young to remember.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 1st Aug 2025 1:31 am
I have killed a lot of people in one of my reincarnated life. A lot.