It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Isabelle Lanthier on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 12:58 pm
You can see the sexual dungeon for impregnation at 0:01.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0I89eOzJwI8
Kink.com Producing porn video in a dungeon setup.
https://www.kink.com/tag/dungeon-bdsm
Isabelle lanthier on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 1:09 pm
Specialized women for sophisticated sexual impregnation. Regular sex get boring after a while, so a various type of sex practices were created to keep the procreation process going forward. This is the purpose of the sexual dungeon, to add variety to something that is boring when done in a conventional way such as missionary and doggy style sex. See animal flow.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoAY_dy4bjQ
Alain Gendron on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 1:17 pm
The fucking bullshit you will find on the YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/bTk98QlQGvo
Isabell Jean on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 1:31 pm
The Jews are trying to destroy the genetic blood royal line by pushing mixed racial procreation. This is why we went after them and try to exterminate them all.
Alain jamal on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 1:34 pm
The next big flood will take care of all this mess. It is coming.
Denis trudel on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 1:38 pm
After all, I am from royal blood and I am have a said to what will happen to earth and its population. A another big flood is coming.
Isavelle jean on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 2:07 pm
Money is becoming irrelevant at this point. We are going to destroy earth and kill everyone. Earth corrupted the royal blood with your racial mixed procreation. You cannot relied on earth for everything, always mess up everything that is good.
Jean marie on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 2:46 pm
17:02 look like black mold on the concrete right of the guy face. Difficult to say since I canot see this from close by. Similar to what I have on my concrete stairs. Check if they are dying like mine. Check if the mold are dying and the concreted if it is turning gray where the mold where before. I would say about 300 year old building. Typical concrete erosion caused by the variation of temperature on the external surface cause the day and night cycle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCFu5ptEIDc
Selen marcis on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 2:52 pm
If the mold are dying, it means that the earth energy field is changing and the UV rays hitting the earth are becoming toxic to any form of cellulaire life. I made a comment about the changing energy field of earth before.
This is why I asked for a lot of money. I am not sure if it really matters at this point and time.
I suspect that the sun is really toxic now for people that are not protected by a new update of the cellulaire structure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCFu5ptEIDc
Denis Trudel on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 3:12 pm
Here it is the effect of UV rays and its impact of cellulaire structure. Only people that have been upgraded with a new cellulaire structures will be able to live in this new energy field. All other form of cellulaire live will die: mold, animal, trees, vegetables and so on. How do I know this. It is a good question that I asked myself sometime. Maybe I have been giving access to special knowledge. After all I am of royal blood, unlike the Jews that are impostors.
https://exobiologie.fr/aspects-moleculaires-des-effets-des-radiations-ultraviolettes-et-ionisantes-sur-ladn-cellulaire/
Isavelle lanthier on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 3:20 pm
I told you that we will kill all the population of earth, except the chosen ones that will receive special cellulaire upgrades.
Marchel Termlay on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 3:23 pm
I told you to not fuck with me and insult me with your stupidity such as Canada firearms laws.
Isabelle Garant on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 3:30 pm
13:48 look at his fucking face. He wants to cry.
I told you to not fuck with me and insult me with your Jewish and UN stupidity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLMm6A47XXg
Marcille Jean on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 3:57 pm
8:15 these gray spots on the right of the door frame. Look like my stairs at home. Molds are dying and probably all form of cellulaires lifes forms also. Only the people with an updated cellulaires structures will live.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOZ7JT7PT3k
I will assume this is accurate video and has not been modified using CGI software.
Denis Trudel on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 4:02 pm
9:32 look like cellulaires bleaching or mold dying.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOZ7JT7PT3k
Jean marchand on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 4:22 pm
Avionics frequency. Probably contain hidden datas to guide planes in strait line when running on runway during take off and flying the plane in simulation mode when in the air.
411 frequency always that sequence of 11, 111, 22, 33 and son on. See at 6:58
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFB_MYKNUWE
Isabelle lantheier on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 4:43 pm
What are the company names providing you these satellites datas. You have to go to these companies and look inside their computers systems, programming codes and technical datas. See at 15:25.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFB_MYKNUWE
Jean lemire on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 4:48 pm
You have to take these satellites companies and put them under the Army command and start looking at their system internally, programming code, technical design documents. You will need a big team of engineers to do that.
Kamal Cametoe on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 6:47 pm
6:28 look like a penis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-05pjdDaSQ
I fucking told you about male procreators and sophisticated sexual ritual before procreation
Stephane lebeau on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 6:54 pm
10:22 female worshiping the main male procreator and waiting for their turn to be impregnated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-05pjdDaSQ
Eenis trudel on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 6:58 pm
Same thing at 11:13 the standing one is the male procreator and the women are waiting their turn for impregnation expressing submission and admiration toward the male procreator.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-05pjdDaSQ
Isaelle clining on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 7:02 pm
11:15 artificial cloning inside a pod. This is why they all look the same
Same thing at 11:13 the standing one is the male procreator and the women are waiting their turn for impregnation expressing submission and admiration toward the male procreator.
Helene Jean on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 7:07 pm
Amazonian muscular female of higher quality used for procreation. She birth better and superior offspring. see at 12:53.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-05pjdDaSQ
Alain Berthiaume on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 7:12 pm
Amazonian muscular female of higher quality used for procreation. She birth better and superior offspring, especially better and more efficient warriors. see at 12:53. She is a female warrior that birth warriors. Notice the people with a sword next to her.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-05pjdDaSQ
Stepahe brun on Sat, 2nd Aug 2025 7:39 pm
First image, women giving birth.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/q2gs06O8pe0
It is probably not accurate. It was a nice job if you were a high value male procreator. The best female and the best kind of sophisticated sex.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNpqPjMT8XY
BDSM sex is nice if the bitch knows what she is doing as a dominatrix.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 12:09 am
Amazonian muscular female of higher quality used for procreation. She birth better and superior offspring, especially better and more efficient warriors. see at 12:53. She is a female warrior that birth warriors. Notice the people with a sword next to her.
She does not birth soldiers, she birth future general, military tacticians, military commanders. She procreate only with superior male procreators. I forgot to mention that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-05pjdDaSQ
Isabelle Lanthier on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 12:30 am
12:55 she has two female helpers, the ones holding her legs. They are there to help the procreation process. this seem to suggest a sexual trio of 3 female with one male procreators.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-05pjdDaSQ
Jean lemire on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 12:34 am
I told you that I did war before. I was probably birth by one of these females procreators in one of my reincarnation cycle.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 1:09 am
She laid down on top of a serpent. This could mean that she is a direct descendant of the serpent race therefore of royal blood.
Or it could also mean that she was a genetic creation of the serpent race and she was created in a lab to get a specific female procreator that will birth military tacticians. See at 12:53
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-05pjdDaSQ
Isabelle Lanthiere on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 2:31 am
Artificial cloning pods at 16:04. The spike at the top is connected to the cloning computer. There is not 1000 ways to repopulate a planet, either by procreation or cloning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIb3wNtjMOM
alain gendron on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 2:40 am
At 19:05 next to his shoulder, you have sculptures of people in the rock. Replica of a cloning machine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIb3wNtjMOM
Denis Tramblem on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 3:17 am
1966 clip. I was born in 1967.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/4oFkuKnzC5s
Isabelle jean on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 3:22 am
Like the video say, the US will end up with a one man dictatorship that will put the satellites companies, Microsoft, Ford, GM, BlackRock, State Street under the command of the US army.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/4oFkuKnzC5s
Denis Trudel on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 4:34 am
They always throw this kind of information right into people faces as if it have been proven to be true and was validated by past laboratory experience. They are never able to replicate these laboratory experiences in real time in front of an audience and prove that these information are accurate. See 12:16 as an example.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjljpWgEDH8
Isabelle Lanthier on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 4:42 am
Of course he is jewish. See comment above
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNGLZvtRoiU
Jean marcil on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 4:52 am
Look at his fucking face. He looks like a fucking ghost, he looks like a fake image without a real flesh body.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0qbigRMqW8
Stepahn jean on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 5:04 am
low IQ for what he does. They stole the low IQ expression from me. Go read my pass comments, I used this expression often: low IQ. See at 1:42.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKiYmeIDIUA
alain Berthuamue on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 5:17 am
They always throw this kind of information right into people faces as if it have been proven to be true and was validated by past laboratory experience. They are never able to replicate these laboratory experiences in real time in front of an audience and prove that these information are accurate. See 12:16 as an example.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjljpWgEDH8
You show up in Harvard, McGill, Stanford universities and ask them to prove in front of you using a chemical experiment that this information at 12:53 is accurate. If they cannot, you kill all the chemists teachers working in the chemistry department. Same the medical studies department. You just don’t fuck around with these people, you kill them on the spot if the cannot prove it to you in real time. This is how you deal with these kind of fucker.
Denis Grudel on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 11:53 am
In some Asiatic culture, that are not afraid of showing an old man married with a young women. They are not afraid of showing a 55 year old man married with a 20 year old women. The Japanese are a good example of that.
See at 10:22. He is clearly a old with a long beard surrounded by young women.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-05pjdDaSQ
They seem to imply that it was the way procreation was done in the past. A old man impregnating young women.
Isabelle Lanthier on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 12:18 pm
The sexual yoga position where she puts her vagina right above the face of a man lying down on the ground. A mean to play with his erection and control it. I made a comment about that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCuJTAL8Xd8
Alain Berthiaume on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 12:26 pm
This kind of BDSM play can be done in a dungeon where the man is attached to a table and unable to touch his penis. She can then play with his erection until she gets what she wants out of him. You see what I mean.
The sexual yoga position where she puts her vagina right above the face of a man lying down on the ground. A mean to play with his erection and control it. I made a comment about that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCuJTAL8Xd8
Isabelle frottage on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 12:37 pm
She can also use the position above to rub her vagina against a man penis but without penetration. Just another mean to play with a man erection to get what she wants and prepare him for penetration and vigorous ejaculation inside a woman This is probably done inside a BDSM dungeon setup.
It is probably not accurate, but I will write it down anyway.
Alain Bethuaime on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 1:15 pm
The female warrior has become in big theme in movies during the last 10 years. They probably think it is a efficient way to raise men sexual appetite in a effort to boost birth rate and more sexual encounter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2OM6r3VvHQ
anita lacrosse on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 1:27 pm
Typical female warrior fantasy. i forgot about her. see Cambodia mural with women holding a knife.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HenAjvu49k
denis welurmwelum on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 1:39 pm
female warrior with hammer at 2:01. made them really sexually appealing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qH0wHOQf8kA
Jean marie on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 1:55 pm
1966 clip. I was born in 1967.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/4oFkuKnzC5s
A Republic, Not A Democracy by Dan Smoot 1966 Apr 18
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZOtEbwwfOM
Isabelle jean on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 2:00 pm
I told you that I have friends in very high places. Very high places that extend beyond the realm of earth.
I told you to not fuck with me and insult me with your stupidity.
Denis trudel on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 5:59 pm
I will repeat that I am still waiting for real result. What results did you get from the Epstein story. What result did you get from the installation of Trump and Carney. Where are fucking result of all this Theater. I had a moment of weakness and made a lot of comments that I should not have made.
Where are the fucking result of COVID. I see a lot of effort and no real tangible results.
Denis tRUDEL on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 6:11 pm
I want a list of the real results that you achieved up to now with all this crap: Carney, Trump, Epstein, Colbert, the white paper sheet, the trees, Israel war, Ukraine war,
I want to see a list of real achievements.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 6:12 pm
You better to start showing up real results now.