It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 6:19 pm
My mind gets foggy during the body upgrade process and I lose contact with the realm beyond earth.
I want to see result or we kill everyone on earth. Carney is better to give you good results, same with Ukraine war, Isreal war, Trump
We are going to flood water world style this fucking piece of shit earth.
Isavelle lanthier on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 6:53 pm
I don’t understand why you make video like that. Is it to collect knowledge from real machinist such as this. Collecting Knowledge before the total destruction of earth. Creating a knowledge database of earth.
I thought you already save all the books printed on earth and they knowledge withing them.
@arnyczful
il y a 2 heures
@16driver16 definitly not the size of the thread Isnt the same on both sides that Is first Mistake , second Is IT will be totaly free on the thread not making good contact And will strip Fast . JUST Weld the thread And make new one looks like people need to learn a lot more in machining before saying stupid think to people WHO work on lathe 12 years like me
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/1Nd9gd3Alos
Isavelle lanthis on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 7:06 pm
What is the purpose of a video like this. You classified this information into the category human sexual fantaisies and procreation ritual.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNeJLjbhPuw
Alain lagrance on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 8:43 pm
Making a knowledge database about earth before it is destroyed by the next water world type flood and entropic degradation or the concept of death. As I said before, earth is built around the concept of death and these realities always die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uhED6kl79Q
Denis Trudel on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 8:53 pm
Making a knowledge database about earth before it is destroyed
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/FiQoM8Aj2Fg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9oXhqP7gxWU
People have no ideas how much knowledge they have saved for future references.
Jean marchand on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 9:02 pm
Making a knowledge database about earth before it is destroyed
People have no ideas how much knowledge they have saved for future references.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-cD8Ny3rqIU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3TFunIK_7E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56cxOzgl-mc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cTJqNWwmf0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIlCxj3-LhU
Alain berthaume on Sun, 3rd Aug 2025 9:09 pm
Making a knowledge database about earth before it is destroyed
People have no ideas how much knowledge they have saved for future references.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_jI4v-Olf8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOLtS4VUcvQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIlCxj3-LhU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySlAhz1s1To
Denis Trudel on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 12:20 am
The reason why surface roughness is important, is because of friction. Earth is a matrix of solid held in place with gravity and friction and only modifiable by heat. Friction will determinate the heat transfert to the surface and the metal fatigue because of heat cycle.
Earth is a cheap reality without any future. I have made multiple comments about that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Msgo3wId-Uc
Isabelle jean on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 12:37 am
I think this is the Power Wagon transmission. Do we have the reliabilities figures of this transmission under heavy load for an extend period.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FqyPizRyphQ
Denis Trudel on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 1:03 am
3:29 metal fatigue caused by heat cycle. You can see the small cracks inside the matrix of solid the failure crack if you want.
2:02 finish surface obsession to diminish heat generation caused by friction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YinS03voTwc
Ismabele Lamarche on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 1:13 am
Earth reality is a badly designed reality using old out of dates concepts. Everyone will die on earth, the date of death is just unknown.
This is what I was talking about the matrix of solid. 2:57 is the matrix of solide I was talking about. The grains correspond to one entry inside the mathematical matrix of solide used for stress analysis. I am over simplifying but you get the idea.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YinS03voTwc
Jean lemirel on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 2:56 am
but every time I think it is going to end, he kills people. He said that in a disinterested e casual manner.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VtbPkmnEWMc
Denis Trudel on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 11:26 am
30:30 female submission and male worshipping. Procreation ritual before impregnation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPxL_Il7FmY
Isabelle Lanhtier on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 1:30 pm
Is she talking about me at 9:30 The Russians don’t care about the UN and UN headquarters are not located in Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jm_R1N9I8ZI
Alain jamle on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 1:47 pm
4:02 she fears the installation of a one man dictatorship.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kp1MUqZKOUA
Jean maie lesage on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 2:03 pm
The destruction of the Transatlantic Alliances. She is right about that, it is one of my goal.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Cvu_9MQXcu4
Denis Trudel on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 2:15 pm
Some people must be started to get really nervous especially if they read all my comments since 2020. The controlling elite of world is starting to get really nervous. Some people must be getting nervous that I own some mathematical knowledge about the internal working of earth reality.
I would be if I was them.
Isabelle lanthier on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 5:32 pm
You sure don’t fuck around when it comes to procreation. You seem to know than I do about it see 0:32. This is the perfect age for a female procreator. I assume she has been trained for that moment and she was taught the art of sexually pleasuring a man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkoLwSrYZ0s
alain berthuai on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 5:57 pm
This was suggested by YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNzYXpVbxcE
See 18:22
Stephane Jean on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 6:14 pm
Leaning how to suck dick whore.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fa2_46Tk1-I
Alain gendron on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 6:19 pm
This is too much for me. no explanation needed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcPnd6A0fTQ
Ostie quecestdrole on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 6:24 pm
“They Called Me Daddy”
There is sexual scenario where the girl calls you daddy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9lgdxxXM8Q
Welen Karichin on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 6:41 pm
There you go, you have a 10 year girl taking care a new born babies as if she did that all her life. They are ready to procreate after their first period.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-g7ADU0dBW4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHIo5HZ3kB8
Denis Trudel on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 6:54 pm
Momma you have my baby at 0:25.
Everything is a fucking lie on this planet. Male procreators where old man over 50 year old procreating with 12 year old girls.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RzbQ8bhZvU
Natalie Jean on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 7:34 pm
I told you that we are going to kill the whole population of earth.
Parts of the UK battered by Storm Floris
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-pOf16wBBs
Valrie Adam on Mon, 4th Aug 2025 7:38 pm
I told you that I will not accept the installation of Carney as prime minster of Canada. I have been very clear about this to not fuck with me,
Jean marie on Tue, 5th Aug 2025 12:37 am
After their first periods they are ready for impregnation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwxxCo4VsXU
jean marie on Tue, 5th Aug 2025 12:51 am
They look more flexible than we are. they probably lack physical strength if they are more flexible. Physical strength required stiff joint and less flexibly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BonmeaOMVxg
Denis Trudel on Tue, 5th Aug 2025 1:05 am
Look how easy it is for him to push her around when she is on top. See at 1:40. She seems to rely heavily on her legs compare to him. She has more flexible legs. He is not using his full physical force against her.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aiNUTtC5lA
2:18 he could grab her butt but he does not dare to do it.
He could have punch her in the face easily and finish the fight if he wanst to.
Isabelle lanthier on Tue, 5th Aug 2025 1:17 am
0:01 to 0:05 does not look like human legs, both of them. Look more ape legs. Look like an animal posture instead of a human posture 0:00 to 0:05.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhFQLYeYCGM
Jean gendron on Tue, 5th Aug 2025 1:21 am
It looks like she is sexually turn on while fighting him. She seems to enjoy a lot compare to him. He seems to not like it that much as he is afraid of using his full physical force.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aiNUTtC5lA
isabelle lanthier on Tue, 5th Aug 2025 1:35 am
Notice how much he has not legs flexibility compare to her. She loves rubbing her vagina against his body using her legs to fight him. I made a comment about joint flexible and brute physical strength.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aiNUTtC5lA
Alain Berthiaume on Tue, 5th Aug 2025 11:09 pm
Female dominatrix servicing from a position of domination a man sexually and preparing and cleaning the prostate for futur impregnation of female procreators. I call them sexual nurse.
I have a feeling of Déjâ vu.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/german-teen-dominatrix-8006554
Isabelle lantheir on Tue, 5th Aug 2025 11:20 pm
Who write the scenario for all these videos.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/tina-the-leather-pants-fucker-xh4wbkf
Women servicing a man sexually. She is the submissive he is the dominant. Her pleasure does not matter, only his sexual gratification matter.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 5th Aug 2025 11:30 pm
There it is the Amazonian female warrior beating a man. I am a comment about that see Cambodia carving.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/elise-a-sexy-kicking-xhXFi4H
Isabelle hena on Tue, 5th Aug 2025 11:44 pm
Brazilian porn. Amazonian women beating a man.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/bellas-sexy-ballbusting-audition-6716163
Jean lemrire on Tue, 5th Aug 2025 11:48 pm
0:55 some kind of yoga position used to kick his balls.
0:42 similar to some yoga position.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/bellas-sexy-ballbusting-audition-6716163
Alain gendron on Tue, 5th Aug 2025 11:51 pm
Look at his erection. 0:50
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/ballbusting-home-4326018
Bally kicking on Wed, 6th Aug 2025 12:04 am
Brazilian. Sometime it is better to not seek the truth.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/the-eunuch-temple-xhRypx6
This one is a bit more sophisticated. She alternate between pain and pleasure.
Denis trudel on Wed, 6th Aug 2025 12:10 am
Sometime it is better to avoid the truth. Look at his hands rubbing her legs. It is a way to tell her that she can continue and be more aggressive.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/the-most-painful-handjob-ever-13379253
Ferdinand Marcos on Wed, 6th Aug 2025 12:21 am
I can wait to leave earth, or I can wait for the destruction of earth. I don’t want to be here on earth. I want out of all of this.
Denis Teudel on Wed, 6th Aug 2025 9:01 am
You think I will help you and give you my analysis of the flag behind him. Give me money, maybe I will do it. Just go fuck yourself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFTo5C488w4
Stupid worthless pieces of shit
Denis trudel on Wed, 6th Aug 2025 9:07 am
You really think that I am fucking this stupid and will take command of US army just to save your fucking ass and the people of earth. Who the fuck do you think I am. Show the fucking money first,.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 6th Aug 2025 9:15 am
You really think I will work with Israel, UK and Europe. You really think I will comment on this building. Just go fuck yourself, Show me the money first.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDDQiUvz2DI
Stop suggesting to me Europe video. You should know how much I hate them
Alain gendron on Fri, 8th Aug 2025 11:09 pm
I have one word to describe this video. I won’t explain why because you don’t deserve an explanation. Show me the fucking money. Here is my description of this video, LOL.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYe40qF90Kc
Alain Lemire on Wed, 13th Aug 2025 3:22 am
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth just because of Canada firearms laws. I told you to not insult me with your stupidity such as Canada firearms laws.
We are also losing a lot of datas because I don’t have the money needed to buy a new car. Earth is useless to us if I cannot collect datas.
https://x.com/SpillingTheBean/status/1955202485590647026
https://x.com/SpillingTheBean/status/1955202485590647026/photo/1
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/coffee-analyst-warns-brazil-frost-could-deliver-death-blow-2026-harvest
Everyone will be killed on earth, except the chosen ones.
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 13th Aug 2025 3:48 am
The reason why we have not killed all the population of earth it is because I am still stuck in a flesh body and cannot leave earth until a I receive a upgraded body capable of dimensional travel.
As soon as I leave earth, we destroy earth and kill all its population.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 13th Aug 2025 4:11 am
She call him master. Similar to what we see in some porn BDSM videos where the submissive female call the man master. Think of : thank you master for using me as your personal sex toy. Master my vagina and asshole belong to you, because you are my master. See at 4:51
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIfuZq-Zqgg
They know they have a problem of IQ and low birth rate.
Jean Lemire on Wed, 13th Aug 2025 4:28 am
I will kill the whole population of earth as soon as I can. Earth is on borrowed time.
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 13th Aug 2025 4:44 am
1966, l’année du mariage de mes parents. Je suis né en 1967. Dès que je le pourrai, je tuerai tout le monde sur Terre.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oT1z9bZyMM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1D_6xQ1A9Q