It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
regis lebaume on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 6:21 pm
Les Osties d’Europeans sales a merde avec leur think tank Europeans vont aussi mourir vite en tabernacle, pareil pour les Juifs sales.
Look at the video above, do you have any idea how much work it takes to do suck graphic simulation with such précis details. This can only come from Ford.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLZbGpoEOcg
jerimae laforge on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 6:25 pm
7:08 look at this simulation. this can only come from Ford. You have have the air flow simulation going out of the turbo. This kind of detail can only come from Ford own simulation model.
They have a plan to stop making you drive cars, but they have no plans how to keep the international supply alive. Typical fucking losers with a simplistic view of the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLZbGpoEOcg
zero beria on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 7:40 pm
You can put your whole fist in the vagina of a bitch like that. Bigger they are, more you can stretch their holes. Should probably not write that anyway. They get pregnant right away on the first download. It is probably not accurate what I am writing down.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5SiNnFh1U4
alaude wzisky on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 8:15 pm
It cools down really fast as soon as the sun is down. Just open the windows and start fans to move the air around. There is not heat in the air and no heat in the ground. My feet are already cold. Earth is a dying reality as I said many times before.
alan urinal on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 8:38 pm
I don’t know if it is true or not, but Caterpillar stop making diesel engine for semi-trailer trucks. They refused to butcher their diesel engine just to please the EPA. So they go out of this market. Ford and GM will turn against the EPA eventually as EPA will be seen as enemy trying to destroy them.
Here is the link.
https://www.prettymotors.com/why-did-cat-stop-making-truck-engines/
Caterpillar refuse to butcher its diesel engine just to please the EPA.
For decades, Caterpillar has dominated the on-highway truck market. At one point, the company controlled 40% of the market for truck engines. However, the company stopped manufacturing truck engines for a variety of reasons, including the constant changes in emission regulations. One of the biggest reasons for CAT’s decision to withdraw from truck engines is the fact that they do not want to continue building on-highway trucks. As a result, they have turned their attention to making truck parts for existing truck engines.
xeri sekwisj on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 9:00 pm
Caterpillar refused to butcher its diesel engine with th DEF fluid. They stop making them.
One hour of training before being put in charge of a water treatment plant. Right there I knew that it was over for earth. I became a slacker right there and never stopped being one. Earth civilization die a long time ago, people are too stupid to see it.
alain Trembla on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 12:48 pm
decompose shits into nutrients for plants
You thought you had the perfect reality that could never die. Guess what even if shit is recycle back into nutrients for plants your shit reality is still dying. Of couse it is dying, it build around death not life.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protozoa
Waster water is full of these that are supposed to eat shit and decompose it onto nutrients. Yet everything is still dying.
What did you expect when you create something based around the concept of death and entropic degradation. I bet you still this reality from someone else and made modifications to it. You are simply not that bright.
On top of that because of the conservation of mass, the protozao also produce shit that must be extctrade buried into land fill. You cannot beat the conservation of mass, no matter how hard you try.
xeri nadine on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 12:49 pm
You are so proud of your shitty earth reality based around death. You thought that animal, and human shit would be recycled back into nutrients for plants using insect and protozoa and similar to decompose shits into nutrients for plants
You thought you had the perfect reality that could never die. Guess what even if shit is recycle back into nutrients for plants your shit reality is still dying. Of couse it is dying, it build around death not life.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protozoa
Waster water is full of these that are supposed to eat shit and decompose it onto nutrients. Yet everything is still dying.
What did you expect when you create something based around the concept of death and entropic degradation. I bet you still this reality from someone else and made modifications to it. You are simply not that bright.
On top of that because of the conservation of mass, the protozao also produce shit that must be removed out the treatment process and buried into land fill. You cannot beat the conservation of mass, no matter how hard you try.
Losers like you are everywhere in the real of creation.
xeri cerela on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 1:00 pm
Shit is decompose by micro organisms and insects into fertilizer for plants. This was supposed to assure that earth is a close system where everything get recycle therefore creating an eternally sustainable reality.
Entropic degradation, the concept of death and the conservation of mass fuck you over and your shitty creation. Your shitty creatin is not eternal even if you recycle everything.
On top of that you build everything around heat as a mean to transform the natural resources, so it means that you need infinity energy for this reality to stay alive eternally.
Earth reality will die like they always do. Only the chosen will live. I pretty sure you steal earth creatin from somebody else. You are just not that bright.
The sperm must flow out, or we will all die.
redia uzkey on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 1:06 pm
Shit recycling process using protozoa. You thought you were bright don’t you. You thought you were prefect and an genius.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/11250000903373797
Introduction
Occurrence and diversity of protozoa
The role of protozoa in wastewater treatment
Protozoa as indicators of activated-sludge performance
Effect of toxicants on protozoa in sewage treatment processes
Footnotes
References
Full Article Figures & data References Citations Metrics Reprints & Permissions View PDF(open in a new window)
Abstract
Biological wastewater treatment is a process of increasing importance in a world with an ever-increasing human population. Wastewater treatment facilities are designed to maintain the high density and activity levels of those microorganisms that carry out the various purification processes.
Losers like you are a real plague inside the domain of creation.
sele selena on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 1:13 pm
I know for a fact that earth reality will die and everyone living in it will also die except the chosen ones. It never worked before, it will not work this time also. Who the fuck do you think you are. Again Kashmir song lyrics.
Oh, let the sun beat down upon my face, with stars to fill my dream.
I am a traveler of both time and space to be where I have been.
To sit with elders of a gentle race this world has seldom seen.
Who talk of days for which they sit and wait
When all will be revealed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_6M254L0XU
When all will be revealed. After that everyone die.
very illagal on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 1:31 pm
I thought we were very clear about that, realities based on sexual reproduction is illegal.
aliena regina on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 3:53 pm
Reality based on the concept of dead always die. The big cities will be the last one to die. See South Korea.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K19jy1DTrEM
fernia cerelia on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 4:09 pm
I bet it is worst than I think. I just dont have a car to go drive around. I am pretty sure it is bad out there and I would see all kind of things.
cretanim selena on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 4:40 pm
Typical of a reality based on the conservation of mass. It creates a lot of trash, pollution.
You spend all your time and energy (oil) managing trashes and pollution. These reality always die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AahliiO5kyI
retry ilian on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 4:52 pm
I was expecting a lot of cadavers on the ground. People just vanished without leaving a trace.
berelia xewely on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 5:19 pm
I was wrong on one thing. I was expecting cadavers everywhere. I was expecting morgues to be so full, that the main street media will be talking about that all the time. No they just vanish. Maint street media still pretending that everything is normal and fine.
I was expecting hospitals to put out a press communique asking people the pick up their dead family members because hospital morgues were overflowing with cadavers.
I was expect social revolution and a lot of violence. No social revolution or violence, just vanishing people into nothingness.
Having a car probably make no sense, since all the gas station are closing. Very soon, you wont be able to leave big cities because there are not gaz station opened outside of the big cities.
I was wrong on this one.
xero fzisky on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 5:21 pm
The only people that are going to roam earth are the chosen ones. As I said, some people will be allowed to see the ending of all of this.
welisky zbskdye on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 5:34 pm
Listen to these losers pretending that everything is fine. Not a word about people vanishing, not a word about rural town dying, just political analysis drivel that contain no useful information to help the survivors.
sweline berie on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 5:35 pm
Here is the link to go with the comment above
Beonit langevin on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 5:36 pm
Here is the link.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPAwlFIOw_Y
jean morue on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 6:12 pm
They all have a look of panic on their face. all of them. See at 5:19.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFJep_vytK4
olivia Newton on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 6:17 pm
All of you are not as powerful as you thought were: politicians, bankers, media people, celebrities, rich people. You are realizing that you are just losers to us.
ulian welizsi on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 6:29 pm
There is no way the international supply chain will stay alive with such a reduce population world wide. Only people that have a divine protection will live. It is a supply chain build to operate on high volume of production. There is simply not enough people on earth to keep alive permanently.
slekxy terie on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 6:32 pm
The sperm has to come out if they want to be able to keep the international supply chain alive. It has to come out, no matter what.
Repopulate the earth with the sperm collected in massage parlors if we have too, the sperm has to come out.
redia jemilia on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 6:45 pm
The sperm has to come out or we will all die.
We told you so fucking fuckers with a low IQ. We told you so that sexual reproduction never worked on the long term. We told you so fucking losers.
We told you so about the conservation of mass and the matrix of solid only modifiable by heat. We told you so about pollution and excessive garbage generation that would happen.
No go on and panic like the losers that you all are. Go fear death and pain.
I told you so that I will kill you all for insulting me with your guns laws.
zero yellow on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 6:55 pm
We told you so about the conservation of mass and the pollution and garbage it will create.
Earth type of reality always die. What do you think happen to the precious civilization that build these majestic buildings.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOSBCZlBNpA
ulian airline on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 7:22 pm
You cannot find enough aircraft mechanics to keep your whole fleet flying.
JetBlue fined for chronic delays — customers may get a cut of the money
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvN1QskjuuM
Why A Shortage Of Airplane Mechanics Is Aviation’s Next Challenge
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhGNJUCfxgk
Hiding the true why you have to cut the number of flight
https://www.timothysykes.com/news/jetblue-airways-corporation-jblu-news-2025_03_20/
On an ordinary day at Boston Logan International Airport, a JetBlue flight reported a mechanical issue. The aircraft safely returned, raising eyebrows but sparking routine curiosity. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is set to investigate the matter, ensuring transparency and safety.
Your civilisation die a long time ago as I mentioned previously. This is what I was talking about, what we are seing is the collapse of the international supply chain. A reduce population will collapse the whole international supply chain. This is what is happening.
selen yelern on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 7:25 pm
GOD I am having a lot of fun seing you panic. GOD I have a lof of fun knowing that I will see you all of die in front of my eyes.
xero welling on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 7:33 pm
The guy at the beginning of the video. This is called energetic disintegration. He will die and we will not find his cadavers anywhere. It is caused by the installation of a new energy field on earth. Only people with an upgraded body will live. I assume this is a real video and not some kind of CGI made to scare people.
I spoke about this many times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1CzZHxTNDI
Energetic disintegration. They die and vanishes.
feri uliane on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 7:47 pm
I can guarantee you that it is worst out there than I think. I just don’t have a car to go drive around and see it with my own eyes. Maybe it is a good thing. The airports are probably empty, really dirty, dirty bathroom, ugly people everywhere. Same for the hospitals, car dealerships. IT is probably a nightmare out there.
reyli weile on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 7:54 pm
Collecting sperms in massages parlors to keep earth reality alive with artificial insemination.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jfpkd6suo9c
Fisting female vaginally to help them push out the baby out. The sperm most flow out, or we will all die. The international supply chain must not die, the sperm has to come out.
cerle selir on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 8:08 pm
You should have never repopulated the earth. You should have let the human specie go extinct. Why do you want to stay alive so much? what was the point of repopulating earth just so you can delay the unavoidable. Reality based on death always die, this one will die too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jfpkd6suo9c
You are not that powerful, you should just give up.
zero quran on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 8:13 pm
What kind of specie are you. The only thing you were able to achieve is to create a female that is heavily mentally retarded. Your specie must be really old and full of defects. You civilisation will die, and you know it.
zero quran on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 8:19 pm
I made comments about that. EGR should have never been implemented. It is a engine killer, plain and simple.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/0IDR6n3pUKk
zero alain on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 8:29 pm
They had a plan. But it is not working and it is a total failure as we can see it with our own eyes. I told you that it is a technological transfer from them to us. We did not invent anything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JS2N4VWIbCI
I told you that they are fuckig losers.
manila petillia on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 9:02 pm
You don’t want to talk with me. Why are you so quiet. It is because deep inside you know you are loser and you will die. Do you want some of my sperm. It is a high quality sperm I produce. If I have trouble getting an erection we could try female-male wrestling. I think it could work. You want my sperm to keep your shit civilisation alive. If you have female sexual slaves available, I could piss on them, it might work as a way to give me an erection.
operi trzskyle on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 9:13 pm
I have a shit load of video links I could put on here. EGR, done on purpose to kill the ICE engine and push people into cities where they can be easily controlled. it is easier to extract sperm from men if they live in big cities instead of hiding in rural area. In a big city you can create something like Pattaya and using it as a sperm extraction hub.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/1orVmdczS4U
yelia geridia on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 9:25 pm
Doing experiments using human male sperm to create animal human hybrid.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/jdSgQgKGEyw
I contact me I have good human quality sperm to give to you.
xero aqixie on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 9:32 pm
I always have the good stuff on my YouTube page. I just share a small part of what I have access to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdN9WkkrAnA
xero jeremiah on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 9:54 pm
33:33 is this the plastic or fiber glass. It look cheaply done and not robust.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdN9WkkrAnA
zero rodgread on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 10:12 pm
Similar to the front breaks on my old ranger, including the torquing procedure. Red grease same color as the one I was using 48:13
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdN9WkkrAnA
welen quran on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 10:27 pm
This is simply not enough high IQ people on earth to keep this civilization running. This is what this video is showing. The sperm has to come out or we will all die. It is going to get worst as population decline. Eventually everything will stop working,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdN9WkkrAnA
zero quran on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 10:33 pm
They know earth has a problem of IQ and mental retardation. This is why they are pushing shit like female beach volleyball. The sperm has to come out. They know they are fucked.
zero intelligence on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 10:48 pm
They know we have a problem of mental retardation. Go look at black and white tv show and how women were dressed back them. They know and are getting desperate. This is why they pushing all this porn with all these kind of sexual fantasies. They know that they will die if they dont find a solution.
They know their female are mentally retarded.
zero alain on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 11:12 pm
They still have not found a better substitute for that. Still using an oxy-actyele welding torch that is an old 100 year tech. Earth is such a pathetic shit hole. Should have not repopulate the earth and let the humans specie go extinct.
Why do you to stay alive so much ? Dont you think it is time to give up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87SuuhUnLfg
terime adei on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 11:20 pm
Earth is such a pathetic shit hole. It is a really primitive reality. Why repopulate the earth. Steel is such a shitty material. Foundry casting is also a shitty industrial process. Cooling inside a casting generate all kind of internal stresses because the piece does not cool down in a uniform manner.
The V-22 Osprey and why it keeps crashing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BmRrbxQCos
zero litelia on Fri, 20th Jun 2025 11:37 pm
Foundry casting, such a shitty process. You would think that by now they came up with something better. No still using a 250 year old industrial process.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vx6hmSclbRE
helien quran on Sat, 21st Jun 2025 12:09 am
It keeps burning oil. We add oil all the time. Piece of shit low quality reality. See at 12:51.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJigYnlK378
derail train on Sat, 21st Jun 2025 12:32 am
same seal and bearing as my old Ford ranger front wheel, except that they were smaller. Same grease color. I was so good that I ran 21 years with the same bearings. See 23:39.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MV9SGYhYPZA
Your grease look dirty.