It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
verilia zeria on Fri, 13th Jun 2025 4:57 pm
Even the sun is projecting rays of death instead of rays of life. Death everywhere you look.
bertian denia on Fri, 13th Jun 2025 5:47 pm
The sun is projecting such deadly rays of lights, that only the chosen ones with a upgraded body will live. Everything living will die.
The smell of death everywhere you look. The sperm has to come out or we will all die.
yelen jamal on Fri, 13th Jun 2025 7:08 pm
Everything that is living will be killed, bleached out by death. Except the chosen ones. You are already seeing this bleaching effect on concrete and death trees branches. I bet I drive down to Montreal and I will find even more example of death, but you don’t want to give me money. So go fucked yourself. No point keeping earth alive if we cannot collect datas.
You have idea what is really happening and how bad it is. The sun is projecting rays of death.
xeri uloire on Fri, 13th Jun 2025 7:57 pm
You better to have a divine protection, or the sun will bleach out your body. You will vaporized in small atoms and no cadaver will ever be found. People are being vaporized and bleached by the sun. You cannot find any cadavers anywhere. Bleaching out of life out of earth, except the chosen ones.
If your name is not in the book of live, you will be bleached out by the sun or thrown into the lake of fire if you will.
Death is everywhere out there, death by the sun, death by degradation entropic, death by conservation mass.
I bet it is even worse in Montreal, but I don’t have a car to drive down there.
zero uyio on Fri, 13th Jun 2025 8:32 pm
You have forgotten the tables and crowd. Forgotten the couches in dark places to do dirty things. You are missing the whore walking around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2QWHlKjBeY
verele trained on Sat, 14th Jun 2025 3:00 am
These are submissive females that have been trained. Start at 6:48 walk behind, never talk, and stand 3 feet away. Always look sexually attractive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPqGYooWI-k
Jere berie on Sat, 14th Jun 2025 3:16 am
7:04 I have always refuse to acknowledge that women are real human beings. This move would have insulted me and I would have made me doubt the quality of the men with her. I consider the men with her an inferior man not worthy of life. We had a strict protocole regarding female management and training. 7:04 violate this protocol. Sitting in the back of the car and letting the women drive violate the protocole.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPqGYooWI-k
zeri uilian on Sat, 14th Jun 2025 3:26 am
If I needed a women, I would hire one using a sexual female ownership contract. Inside the contract were salary clauses, if pregnancy was allowed or not, what would happen if pregnancy happen what would happen to the mother and baby.
I am surrounded by low quality men.
jane lacrilla on Sat, 14th Jun 2025 9:45 am
Someone is making fun of the polices forces and calling them useless coward. Policemen are mostly coward when they are alone. Police forces are there to oppress people and protect the structure of power. I spoke about that in previous comments.
Everyone will die except the chosen ones, the smell of death is too strong out there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_tgux5pAn0
xerie vwidpe on Sat, 14th Jun 2025 10:30 am
I cannot figure out if she means it because she is mentally retarded or if she mocking people.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/gPAfgTxmbZQ
Mentally retarded like this below
These precious illusions in my head
Did not let me down when I was defenseless
And parting with them is like parting with invisible best friends
When they become agitated, it probably means they are felling defenseless. Or they are not intelligent enough to survive on their own and need other people to help to keep themself alive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGJaKeYwOFo
ledernie xeria on Sat, 14th Jun 2025 11:11 am
The coldest temperature last night where I live was 5.0 degrees Celsius accord to my Arduino outside Thermometer. The smell is death is strong in any direction you look at.
nadie quran on Sat, 14th Jun 2025 3:46 pm
I had a blow job done on me long time in a strip club. You go in a small room, you the close door, you sit on a chair she put a condom on and she swallow you dick. She had really beautiful hair and a beautiful face. So I tried to touch her hair during the blow job, she began yelling at me and told me not to do that. Not one time I felt her teeth rubbing against my penis. It felt like she had no teeth at all. It felt like you where inside a vagina.
I remembered being surprise as how good she was at sucking dick. It was flawless. The orgasm was not that good. Sex is not that good on earth, no surprise why they have low birth rate.
I don’t know what happen with condom full of sperm. Did I remove the condom my self and throw it in a garbage can, did she remove it and leave with it. I was trying to remember last night but it is not coming back.
jean quren on Sat, 14th Jun 2025 3:54 pm
I remember that she was beautiful and I felt that she did not belong into a shitty run down strip club. I chose her because she was beautiful. Apparently, you cannot touch their hair.
jerial jame on Sat, 14th Jun 2025 3:58 pm
Maybe they collected by themself my condom out of the trash can after I left. I tried to remember if she left with it, but I cannot remember. This was during the HIV scare where they were telling people to put condom on.
alain orekia on Sat, 14th Jun 2025 4:29 pm
I remember that strip joint. If felt like I travelled into another dimension and end up some where else. It feel fake and real at the same time. It felt like the set of a porno movie.
yulina peratey on Sat, 14th Jun 2025 4:34 pm
It felt like the set of a porno movie where you have group sex. The memory of this moment just came back to me. Orgasm was really not good and I never did it again. Sex and orgasm are not that good on earth.
lilian vurilo on Sat, 14th Jun 2025 7:13 pm
Choosing a sex toy for the night. The sophisticated decor and luxury are there to make the male procreator feel as someone special and unique. That is the vibe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_FxX-7elEk
alain laporte on Mon, 16th Jun 2025 5:26 am
The time traveller going back home. The disappearing man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKeAwuzrAj4&list=RDRKeAwuzrAj4&start_radio=1
xeno redie on Mon, 16th Jun 2025 5:47 am
3:45 Québec the license plate. The time traveller going back home. The disappearing man. You have everything make a bible with the comments I made. Call me the Quebecers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKeAwuzrAj4&list=RDRKeAwuzrAj4&start_radio=1
zeri cerelia on Mon, 16th Jun 2025 5:57 am
In the bible you will make with my comments, call me The Quebecer ou Le Québécois in a singular not plural as above. I made a mistake above.
seolne zeri on Mon, 16th Jun 2025 6:05 am
Do your best to make sure that the knowledge in my comments survive the destruction that is about to be unleashed on earth.
ilina deris on Mon, 16th Jun 2025 6:23 am
You can drive me home as soon as possible. I am ready to leave earth. I am slowly emptying my house.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUHwS1XToWk
xeri grem on Mon, 16th Jun 2025 6:45 am
‘Stranger in the Promised Land’ by John Haydock.
Who is the stranger? it is me. Promise Land is the destination I am going to. Save me comments and make a bible with them. Try your best to past my knowledge.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIJAm54tuTo
xeri keru on Mon, 16th Jun 2025 7:00 am
I told to not fuck with me.
xeri herie on Mon, 16th Jun 2025 7:15 am
One day I woke up and just like that I stopped my refrigerator. It is empty. This is the sign of a man that is about to leave. This is the sign of a man that is cleaning before leaving.
You know what to do with my comments and why I wrote them.
trembe jane on Tue, 17th Jun 2025 10:57 am
Everything is shutting down. I cannot connect to the energy field this morning. As I said, You know what to do with my comments and why I wrote them. It is time to build a bible using my comments. It is time to build an historical record of how earth reality died.
xero uliane on Tue, 17th Jun 2025 11:02 am
I am even not sure if the supply chain will stay up. It is a supply chain working at high capacity volume not adapted to shift to low volume production. A reality shutting down mean less people, and most likely the closure of the supply chain. I did the right thing by giving up on driving.
regis orelia on Tue, 17th Jun 2025 11:11 am
A matrix of solid based on death or degradation entropic never live long. This is what you are seeing here, the death of everything because earth was created around the concept of death.
Supply chain shutting down, means gas station shutting down, except for the main cities where it is still possible to make a profit. People in the country side will move into the cities like South Korean. Manufacturing outside big cities will probably also shutdown. Only the chosen ones will live.
Energy field is being reconfigured as we speak. Only people with an adapted flesh body will be able to live inside this new energy field. Everybody will die.
weler prele on Tue, 17th Jun 2025 11:37 am
Globalism that is the optimisation of profits, demand an high volumen supply chain. It is the only to maximsie profits in a constraint environment such as fast natural ressources depletion. Meaning the the supply chain will have a lot of trouble to adjust to a decreasing population and lower consumption. It will simply shutdown and as it cannot be restructure to adapt to declining demographic and natural resources depletion. A matrix of solid based on degradation entropic and conservation of mass never works. You are seeing the death of such a reality. Leaving earth is the only way to stay alive.
zero greham on Tue, 17th Jun 2025 11:51 am
I think we have a reality shutting down at exponential speed. The speed at which insects and birds are dying seems to indicate that. This could even include the sun therefore colder weather.
NYT on Tue, 17th Jun 2025 11:24 pm
This is a very informative post! thanks a lot
wawa on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 3:49 am
Interesting perspective on energy topics. For privacy concerns, Email Generator could be a useful tool in these discussions.
xeri jemel on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 4:23 pm
Make me think of a whore house. Each girl has a number. You choose the one you like for the evening. Similar to a fashion show.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4yx5MeRi5c
xero yela on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 4:30 pm
City-state of Plato republic is basically equivalent to today smart cities. The philosopher-kings are the ones in charge of manipulating psychologically people living in the city-state or smart city to obtain submission.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_(Plato)
zero helene on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 4:33 pm
Notice again the lack of mathematical concepts in the Plato republic. Notice how they are avoiding to explain any kind of mathematical concepts such as conservation of mass, matrix of solid only modifiable by heat. Plato republic seem like a guide of how to manipulate people living in a city-state or smart city.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_(Plato)
Refere Keera on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 4:43 pm
I stand by what I said above. Use me comments and put them in a bible. I cannot leave my neighborhood because I don’t have a car, but I see no reasons to be optimistic about the future. I have a limited view of what is happening without a car. Car are so unreliable that you have to be rich to run them. They seem to last about 2 years, engine and transmission seem really weak. So you need to buy a new car every 2 years. You need a lot of money to run a car.
Earth is a reality based around the concept of death and it will die like all the ones before that.
Only the chosen will live.
alaine derte on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 6:22 pm
Quran is just hidden knowledge about the real nature of women: the lied all the time, that have no honor.
You create a bible and put my comments in there to transfer knowledge.
xera zera on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 6:24 pm
This reality will die like the other ones. You have to find a way to transfer knowledge. Earth will die, this is guarantee everyones will die except the chosen ones.
detre urine on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 6:33 pm
Quran is seen as a misogynistic book, but actually it is trying to explain to you the real nature of women. Never trust some one that is worshipping women, like Europe.
zero xweri on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 6:41 pm
Never trust someone that is against violence on women. Never trust these people.
erel ilina on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 7:00 pm
I am not convinced that earth reality will be rebooted this time. I think it will be permanently terminated and the chosen ones extracted. I have been pushing for a shutdown of the energy field or neutralization so earth reality cannot be rebooted. I have been pushing for a bubble of protection for the chosen ones if extraction cannot be done before earth reality die as they always do.
A reality based on the concept of death should not be allowed to exit, period.
xero lavorge on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 7:01 pm
A reality based on the concept of death should not be allowed to exist, period.
erin opera on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 7:16 pm
Sexual reproduction has never worked as a mechanism to create intelligents beings. It always failed. It will fail this time also.
Some people will be allowed to see the spectacular collapse of sexual reproduction and of a reality based on death. Some people will have this privilege.
alaine erin on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 7:20 pm
I think she knows she is lying. She knows who her audience is and what the general audience’s knowledge of the law is. She knows who her bosses are and what they want to hear and be said so that ears are tickled and the type of Democrat favored outrage is created. I also think she was hired because she was a lawyer on paper and because she clicked certain diversity boxes. Plus, I think it is important to consider where she became a lawyer and their general stance on various laws like on the second amendment. I other words consider her training and who trained her related to the law, thus considering the politics of her ow teachers in law.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcmAE86mXZk
zero cere on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 7:25 pm
Sunny is the typical female that is heavily mentally retarded and cannot survive on her own. Women are just losers that need to parasite a strong host to say alive. This is what we are seeing here. What we are seeing is a survival behavior coming out of her. Women are always in survival mode contrary to men. I know a lot of shit.
I think she knows she is lying. She knows who her audience is and what the general audience’s knowledge of the law is. She knows who her bosses are and what they want to hear and be said so that ears are tickled and the type of Democrat favored outrage is created. I also think she was hired because she was a lawyer on paper and because she clicked certain diversity boxes. Plus, I think it is important to consider where she became a lawyer and their general stance on various laws like on the second amendment. I other words consider her training and who trained her related to the law, thus considering the politics of her ow teachers in law.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcmAE86mXZk
yelen regina on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 7:30 pm
Women are heavily mentally retarded. Because of that they are always in survival mode. Meaning that for them lying is fine because it help them survive or stay alive a little longer. Hatred toward women is completely justify if you ask me. Women deserve no love from men.
xero zerio on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 7:49 pm
Everything is dying out there, including the lichen on trees. Everything is being kill by the sun. Some men will have the privilege to see all of this unfold.
wellen yulia on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 7:56 pm
Heavily mentally retarded female can only create a heavily mentally retarded population through procreation. This is why everyone on earth is mentally retarded, because this is what the human female is, mentally retarded. Some men will have the privilege to see all of this unfold.
xero mediare on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 8:23 pm
It is coming. Everything is slowly being setup. Some men will have the privilege to see all of this unfold. I don’t who they are because I cannot control that but I won’t be the only one to see the fallout of earth and sexual reproduction.
‘Icy cold’ morning across Australia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJyqHNa7OPM
zero trelia on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 8:28 pm
This is why men sperm is so precious. All these massages parlor in Pattaya probably exist just to collect men sperm to improve a failed species build around a heavily mentally retarded women. Check is the garbage can is empty when you enter the room and what she does with the condom full of sperm.