It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
veride manic on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 10:01 pm
Do you have access to variables inside the entropic calculator. It will give you an estimate about how many earth years before everything dies on earth. You are just a fucking loser.
Do you have access to these variables fucking loser? I bet you don’t.
bdei zero on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 10:03 pm
Never build a reality around death. They never live long.
zero heline on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 10:07 pm
You don’t want to talk to me. Where are you.
jerem makilia on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 11:00 pm
I was looking at some news. you guys don’t understand the gravity and precarity of your situation. If you understand the gravity of the situation you would have given me money 2 years ago so I can study at which speed earth reality is dying, by driving around and going downtown. I keep saying it, you are just fucking losers.
You guys lost 2 years of fucking precious datas that we will never recover. There is really no point to keep earth alive anymore.
I hate working with losers.
helibe marille on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 11:05 pm
I am not impressed with your G7 meeting. As I said, you are just fucking losers that don’t understand the gravity and precarity of the current situation. G7 meeting is what losers with no real mathematical knowledge would do.
You keep disappointing us all the time.
kdie elaine on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 12:01 am
Eva Longoria and Kate Beckinsale are the same person. Yews she comes from the underworld, the realm of death, same as earth is the world of death based around entropic degradation.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/1473O0DCSpw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_IoL7g5Ub8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whZCXJ9fXtI
recalm nutsack on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 12:05 am
Kate Beckinsale play at least 3 différents characters. I think she is also some kind of singer, don’t remember the name,
Keep planning your piece of shit G7 meeting instead of working hard at sending me money. Just fucking losers you all are.
uelein queer on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 1:39 am
China is using 3 axels trailers. Is because it is the a manufacturing hub of the world and are carrying heavier loads. Is it a way to save on diesel fuel. See at 0:08. Is is standard practice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nX0nIEikcHo
Lalime verbal on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 2:26 am
international law is globalism. Globalism was implement and put in place using international laws system.
heridian oprea on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 2:28 am
International laws goal was to put in place a one world government. We already have a one world government that was put in place using the international laws system. They never tell the truth, they always lie.
ulaine xeria on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 2:39 am
Democracy is a kind of one world government. What they don’t want is the installation of King. A real King, not like England, but a real King with the power of life and death over a certain geographical area.
Saudi Arabia is also a form of democracy because the respect the international laws system. China could also be seen as a democracy.
ilunae gremind on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 2:50 am
Your biggest problem is that earth is designed around the concept of death or entropic degradation. Death of steel by rust, death of flesh by aging, death of wood by mold and so on.
You cannot designed a lasting reality based around the concept of death.
oredia welia on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 2:56 am
Sperm is also subject to the concept of death. Each new born male carry a higher portion of defectives spermatozoid compare to his father.
This is the concept of death, the death of sperm or fertility.
You cannot create a reality based around the concept of death and expect that it will live forever.
yedl germe on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 3:15 am
The red curve on the left is probably the mathematical model of death or entropic degradation. It is a kind of inverse exponential.
As time goes by everything die faster and faster.
The sperm has come out means that if more people have sex slower the death of reality. happen. It is a way to delay the unavoidable.
The sperm has come out by any means.
https://www2.lbl.gov/abc/wallchart/chapters/03/graphics/Image3.gif
udlie selena on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 3:18 am
Never build a reality around the concept of death.
berine zwe on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 3:37 am
Do you have something to say? I cannot hear you. Are you still alive. It is really quiet in my mind, I cannot hear you. Where are you?
helen jean on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 12:24 pm
Women with longer legs do better sex. Especially when the walked like a gray alien sort of.
Sperm has to come out, as they say.
grely xeria on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 12:28 pm
If you stop eating your skin is less greasy, you have to take less showers. You feel cleaner.
Hou la la la sperm has to come out.
cere cremia on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 12:30 pm
If you stop eating your asshole is always clean. It can be easily use it as another sexual hole without the inconvenient of having shit and bad smell.
bertian deial on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 12:39 pm
What if a women was just a sex object with 3 pleasuring holes: mount, asshole and vagina. Maybe she has no other purpose than that.
derision funny on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 12:45 pm
What if earth was really just a men world and women were just sex objects for him to use.
alain trident on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 12:48 pm
What if earth was just a reality created for the Superior man and women were just there to be used as sex objects.
xeria beria on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 12:52 pm
What if earth was just a reality created for the Superior man and women were just there to be used as sex objects. What if women have no other value then sex, and killing them when they are sexually useful was the real purpose of women creation.
What if.
tribia seleria on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 12:57 pm
What if earth was just a reality created for the Superior man and women were just there to be used as sex objects. What if women have no other value then sex, and killing them when they are sexually useful was the real purpose of women creation. What if killing women was a kind of entertainment for the Superior man. Women cannot provide good orgasms and ejaculation they get kill.
zerie oloea on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 1:00 pm
After all, earth is based around the concept of death, why not kill women when they are no good at proving sex.
Never create a reality based around death. They never life long.
xerax aliponas on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 1:05 pm
After all, earth is based around the concept of death, why not kill women when they are no good at providing sex.
Never create a reality based around death. They never life long.
I make a lot of orthographic mistake today. It is because I am back to bed and connected to the energy field or I am receiving upgrades to prepare my body for dimensional travelling.
Stupid pieces of shit, I told you that we will kill you all for daring to insult me.
Early-Season Cold Kills At Least 49 In South Africa; Visviri, Chile Approaches June Record Low; Summer Snow Over Carpathians; Alaska’s Coldest Early-June in Decades; + The Cold Times
xeria feria on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 1:30 pm
Hou la la la. You want to know the truth more than I do. A yellow spot on bathing suit just above the vagina and asshole. Are you suggesting that these are sexual holes created to please the superior man. Are suggesting that women are only sex object. You really want the truth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgKky_Im0Mo
zwer seidei on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 1:42 pm
Even Korea wants to know the truth more than I do. Look at her camel toe. Look at her vaginal area.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hySDW8M2knE
alain jeremel on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 1:56 pm
Everyone wants to know why the sperm of the superior man is so valuable and precious. How many superiors men were here on earth before. What makes them superior and better than the rest. Everyone wants to know. I don’t know myself.
the sperm of the superior man, the elixir of life.
redie xeria on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 2:05 pm
This is how I remembered it, a women dare to insult you in anyway, you move forward in a fit of rage and you kill her right there. Go job boy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsWExELtjzg
yellne jeanjau on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 4:05 pm
Taller whore with longer legs might work better for sex. The sexual organs are about the same height so you can have sex standing up and discret public area. Depending how far apart her feet are she can ajust the height of her vagina up and down. I have never done, it is probably not accurate. I think it is one of the yoga pose, done standing up.
jean zero on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 4:12 pm
What a lot of BS these old black and white videos are.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOsMiLxQHuA
alan grem on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 4:28 pm
Robert Breaker – bible study lessons
Freemasory = Brotherhood of the snake and about witchcraft and wizardry.
John 8:44 KJV Ephesians 5:11 KJV Ephesians 6:12 KJV
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGa6BPj3Mcw
Earth is a reality based on death or entropic degradation. I don’t see how they can last long. But hey, we live in the underworld were death is worship. I know exactly how to will unfold, everything dies.
reguel awelia on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 4:34 pm
It is a really efficient way to have sex with random women in a public discreet place. It is perfect if you are looking at repopulate the earth. Sex standing up in a public place.
xeri neria on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 4:47 pm
It is probably not accurate but I will write down. A superior man would have been able to kill these 3 man by himself. we are talking of superior man here. Not a skinny sissy of 130 lbs. See 1:03. We are talking about a man that can hit hard surfaces with his fist and barely feel pain. You probably have a video of that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7if99iz88Zo
There something that I like to call the accelerated speed of anger. Anger accelerate the speed and strength of you body movement. You probably have videos of that.
relial verial on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 4:59 pm
The real power of hatred and anger. They don’t talk about it don’t they. All they talk about is hate speech and communication to resolve problems.
zeri wellen on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 5:09 pm
They talk about peace all the time, they never tell you what can be achieved using hatred and anger. They always present hatred as something bad. What if hatred had some positive sides to it.
zero helium on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 5:30 pm
What are star wars movies all about. Telling you to control your anger and hatred. Telling you that nothing good has ever come of hatred. I beg to differ.
Star wars is all about communication and negotiation and controlling one anger.
You see what I mean.
xerie olena on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 5:35 pm
what are WW1 and WW2 all about. Anger and hatred is bad, communication and dialog is better.
Same as star wars movies. Real pure anger has something to offer. You must have video of that. They always lie about everything.
wero kerie on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 6:14 pm
19:42 sexual position signaling that she is offering herself sexually to her master or procreator.
19:45 showing her asshole and vagina for penetration
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CR9m_ASI7WE
There is probably more sexual position on it, but I cannot see them.
pertron qerie on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 6:30 pm
17:03 position indicating that she is offering herself sexually to the person in front of her.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1zwaPemRJ0
welie eridy on Thu, 12th Jun 2025 6:33 pm
22:32 offering herself for anal sex.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1zwaPemRJ0
ereline jamal on Fri, 13th Jun 2025 1:26 pm
Israel Iran war, this is the best you can come up with it because you are not powerful enough to access earth calculators and stop entropic degradation or death. This is your master plan to stop immigrants. As I said multiples time , you are just losers and this operation is a failure on so many way. Vere disappointed.
elein jame on Fri, 13th Jun 2025 1:35 pm
This is the best you can do long neck, face move forward, dying trees, fear videos on Youtube, Israel Iran war, Ukraine war, COVID and pissing me off.
All of this and still no real results, This is your best You are just a fucking failure and a loser.
vereila xera on Fri, 13th Jun 2025 1:53 pm
This is your grand strategy end less press releases from various authorities showing people with long neck, funny ears, funny hands, unusual hair style and funny eyes. This is your strategy to identify and unmask who the invaders are and what kind of physical forms they have. You are just a failure a loser.
But no strategy to send me money. This is your grand strategy. Fucking losers with a low IQ.
Opera treid on Fri, 13th Jun 2025 2:15 pm
This is your fucking grand strategy stupid piece of shit. Sending me a magnetic sticker to put on my refrigerator door with the phone number of a taxi company. This is your strategy instead of a new car. We are really impressed.
xero seria on Fri, 13th Jun 2025 2:40 pm
It is cold in Montreal for this time of the earth. Maybe we will kill all the Canadian because of Canada firearms laws. 8 degree Celsius for the night of 14 June.
Can you feel death coming for all the population of earth. I can feel the coldness of death at night when I go out at 3 AM. Can you feel it. You are surrounded by death but most of you cannot feel it because you are the dead.
https://www.meteomedia.com/fr/ville/ca/quebec/montreal/actuelle
neriy zeria on Fri, 13th Jun 2025 3:00 pm
Go outside if you live in Québec. You will feel that the outside air is cold without any heat. You will feel that the ground is cold without any heat it. This is the smell of death that you can feel through each pore of you skin.
It smells death some much, that it suffocate you.
fernel jonamie on Fri, 13th Jun 2025 3:14 pm
You can feel so much death around you. You try to breath life through your nostrils but it is not enough to keep you alive. Death is pouring through each pore of your skin and slowly kill you. More death is coming inside your flesh being than life, killing you. It is all around you.
I told you to not fuck with me and insult me.
cereal herie on Fri, 13th Jun 2025 4:55 pm
The real smell of death is everywhere. Not the fake death from the fake Israel war. The real death, the degradation entropic and conservation of mass death. Left, right, down, top just death pushing through the pores of your skin.
Just are just losers with you G7 summit, COVID, Israel Ukraine war. You are just losers that don’t understand complex mathematics. The smell of death everywhere you walk.