It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
jaane maie on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 1:28 am
They basically creating human as a source of food. This is why they are pushing procreation so much.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w26HszJviQ8
jeamin grame on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 1:35 am
That was the purpose of the procreation chamber. To create food for them. You mix human dna with dinosaur dna to create some kind of hybrid. You extract DNA from human sperm.
iline laporete on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 1:39 am
It so quiet on Youtube. I feel that I am the only one alive. Anybody out there. Hello, anybody out there. What happen to the energy field. It became quiet. Where is the energy field, is it gone. I cannot connect to anything anymore. I lost my connection with other dimensions. Hello
xen renia on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 1:43 am
I had a good connection with the energy field. This is why I wrote a bunch of comments. Hello where are you.
regina tremblay on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 1:53 am
I entered into some kind of trance. Messages from another dimension were just flowing down to my mind like an high speed internet connection. The connection is down now. You don’t want to talk to me anymore. They will still continue to upgrade my body so I can connect to various frequencies and dimensions. Don’t worry they will modify my body and tomorrow I will be able to connect again to the energy field.
Where are you, why did you shutdown the communication chanel. What is the definition of trance:
a half-conscious state characterized by an absence of response to external stimuli, typically as induced by hypnosis or entered by a medium.
Come on, I want to know more about sophisticated sex.
gerald ladine on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 1:57 am
Come on I don’t full know how the penetration happen during sophisticated sex for big man like me. Show pictures in my head of how penetration was happening during sophisticated sex. Were they all small women . Come on be cool with me
grema laporre on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 1:59 am
Come on, I like to be in a partial state of hypnosis trance. I am sure you will be back. Was I a good procreator.
greme uleo on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 2:05 am
You guys miss a good show. While I was in a trance making comment about sex, my YouTube page was full of small women doing yoga. You should have seen my YouTube page. It felt like it was connected to another dimension. The page was full of women doing yoga in highly sexual suggestives manner. You guy miss a really good show.
You will be back. You are always in heat and ready for sex.
karine lemetable on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 2:18 am
There you go she is back for more.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5HiFm5e7Q4k
Oh cherie.
xen radia on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 2:26 am
I cannot visualize how the penetration was happening during exotic sex. It is just not coming back to me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfYnwZId4oY
xer rena on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 2:29 am
I will give you that. You know how to create sexually appealing outfit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJ6QGlgQ8Gg
dyle maruce on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 2:56 am
I don’t remember much about sophisticated sex. I remember that achieving a deep penetration was difficult because of the belly and my small penis.
The female had to do all work and compensate for my shortcoming. It is really not coming back to me.
dlaine wamrior on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 3:08 am
The amazone warrior type of sex scenario. It is not coming back to me either. Setup seems interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-GHJJEBDps
alain jean on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 4:11 am
Ostie que c’est drôle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJIijUQg_yo
aldine gei on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 4:23 am
7:53 sexual position for rapide procreation in a public space. Everything is about procreation on earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQSYJ4_Fp0M
gerim aqei on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 4:33 am
0:08 sexual position for rapide procreation in a public space. My guess is that position allowed for deeper penetration and a better chance of success.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NcqXI8r3La0
jadme yelen on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 4:46 am
3:04 almost the same sexual position as above. My guess is still rapide procreation in a public space with deep penetration.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iK3fb18EUHs
isabelle marchela on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 5:14 am
0:11 against sexual procreation a public space with very deep penetration.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9Op6dPMVZY
yeriam erlaim on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 5:19 am
7:28 sexual position where the female can see the penis and maybe establish some eyes contact with the male for more intimacy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9Op6dPMVZY
jean marchan on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 12:06 pm
I told that we are going to kill everyone on earth. Without datas collection, earth is useless to us.
Namibia Sets All-Time Record Cold; Rare Snow Sweeps Large Parts Of Southern Africa; Mount Kenya Sees Unusual June Snow; Avalanche Deaths On Swiss Glaciers; + The Missing Piece: Clouds?
isale succeuse on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 12:10 pm
Namibia Sets All-Time Record Cold; Rare Snow Sweeps Large Parts Of Southern Africa; Mount Kenya Sees Unusual June Snow; Avalanche Deaths On Swiss Glaciers; + The Missing Piece: Clouds?
https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-snow-weather-floods-a4bcc84b86ec6b39e58e0b24a9686fe0
I told you to give me money 2 years ago. I also told you to not fuck with my weapons and abolish Canada firearms laws. I told you that datas collection is a big issue, without it earth is useless to us, might as well destroy earth and move on.
yellen awen on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 12:12 pm
I also told you to not fuck with me, you don’t know who I am and where I have been before.
Just don’t fuck with me and insult me with your stupidity.
telia renia on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 12:15 pm
I stopped eating and I have turn off my refrigerator. I will eat chips here and there but I stop eating.
Don’t fuck with me stupid pieces of shits.
ulysle carney on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 1:14 pm
Une autre crisse de chose, je veux qu’on me tue la salope Britannique à Carney. Je veux le voir dégoutter de sang partout, crisse de merde sale Britannique.
yelne iliane on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 1:22 pm
Do better than the Biden autopen story. Provide us with better results. You are not good at what you are doing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7e7_xJbPCsw
Naide sperma on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 6:48 pm
The sperm had to get out no matter what. It must get our, or we are all going die. It had to get out.
Hou la la la
heline jwellne on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 7:04 pm
Hou la la la, it had to get out or we will all die. Don’t you tell me so about sperm.
yerleim verian on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 7:22 pm
I told you that we will destroy earth.
‘Pretty frigid’: Low temperatures affecting most of Australia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DuGgCFuKIG4
I told you to give me money 2 years ago. Without me being able to collect datas because I cannot afford a new car is a big issue. Without me collecting datas, earth has to reason to exist.
I fucking told you to not fuck with me.
It is really cold in Montreal for this time of year. No need to run the air conditionner at night and people are sleeping at night with the window closed.
I fucking told you how valuable these datas are for us. We don’t give a shit about your fucking Biden autopen story. I fucking told you so.
Betrie jean on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 7:23 pm
I also told you to make Carney bleed to death. There is never going to be any peace between me, UK, Israel and Europe.
ulysee crabe on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 7:27 pm
I told you to give me money 2 years ago. Without me being able to collect datas because I cannot afford a new car is a big issue. Without me collecting datas, earth has no to reason to exist.
xen rena on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 7:38 pm
What is it quiet suddenly. You don’t want to talk to me anymore. You feel it too, the energy field has changed and you have more difficulty connecting to it and using for your own benefits. You see too. You know that we will kill you all for a question of datas collection.
xen renia on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 7:39 pm
Talk to me don’t be a coward.
Xero lenia on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 7:52 pm
The sperm has to get out no matter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfW0ke4bwI4
zero jekia on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 7:54 pm
The sperm has to get out no matter what.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhI-AUgxK7U
betrina reparti on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 7:57 pm
The sperm has to get out no matter. If needed show them highly sexual suggestive images of women where we can almost see her asshole.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/zwGlVkvy6pU
The sperm has to get out or we will all die.
Wery zerroa on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 8:01 pm
The sperm has to get out. By any means. Push pedophilia on them if needed at 0:07
We will die without sperm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJvwV1Fm0vU
nadie kirim on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 8:13 pm
The sperm has to get out no matter. We will die without it. See at 3:22
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ichIsEaUalI
xeno werie on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 8:17 pm
You don’t want to talk to me. You are upset at me. I cannot hear you.
meria zera on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 8:26 pm
I remember when I saw this movie for the first time. I also remember her BDSM sexual outfit. I might even had a soft erection but not enough to go masturbate.
The sperm has to come out, or we will all die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vO_0np2IbtY
What you are doing is not working. Not enough sperm is coming out to keep you alive.
karine jean on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 8:40 pm
The White sperm has to come out, or we will all die. There is another scene in the movie above where she is dressed in her dominatrix outfit and she used a whip to terrorize 2 security guards. Typical scene you will find in BDSM porn or some men are sexually turn on by violent dominatrix.
Why do you push feminism so hard. Feminism is partly responsible for less sperm coming out. Why feminism is the sperm is so important for you. Could be that you are low IQ moron. Why do you care so much about violence against women if sperm is so important for you. Should you encourage female rape instead, after all the sperm has to come out.
jerile xeri on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 8:46 pm
Here is the scene I am talking about. The sperm has to come out, why feminism if the sperm has to come out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZKj_uz1a1I
velia veola on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 8:50 pm
They are gone. I have not seen one this summer. Almost all the insects are dead. The bird will follow really soon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhZ5ZTe1Fbg
neria grima on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 8:52 pm
the praying mantises have been dead for almost 10 years. The last time I say one, I was 10 year old. Almost all the insects are dead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBt6s7CHFQA
xero demetria on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 8:56 pm
Never build a reality based on death and entropic degradation. If you want the humans to believe that they are mortal, you have to applied the concept of death to everything. In essence you have to invent entropic degradation that is basically dead applied to everything. Rust is just the death of steel. You see what I mean.
Is it possible that you are an idiot.
Why did you do such a foolish thing as creating death.
regina sasktoon on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 9:01 pm
You don’t want to talk with me. Why is it so quiet? are you still alive.
xeno reporta on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 9:07 pm
Where are you, I cannot hear you anymore, are you crying.
alain charmel on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 9:36 pm
Rust is steel aging and dying. Hoo la la la you made a big mistake by creating death. How are you going to fix that fucking loser.
You made a mistake by creating feminism. The sperm has to come out, why feminism. You should have promoted rape instead, it is a more efficient way to make sure that the sperm has to come out.
So many mistakes, how are you going to fix all of these.
jeral ketroni on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 9:41 pm
Are you running low on energy because there is not enough sperm coming out. Is it why the planet is getting colder less sperm coming out, less energy a colder planet. You are having issue managing the energy, you don’t have enough energy because the sperm is not coming out. Never create a reality based on death.
Why feminism, you should have done the promotion of rape instead.
I bet it is not your own creation, you stole it from somebody else, you don’t seem really intelligent.
xero beria on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 9:45 pm
You dont want to talk. I cannot hear you.
jadime lamarie on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 10:00 pm
Do you have access to variables inside the entropic calculator. It will give you an estimate about how many earth before everything dies on earth. You are just a fucking loser.
Do you have access to these variables fucking loser? I bet you don’t.