It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
idlue dei on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 3:31 pm
Reorganize the FBI and CIA and put them under the authority of US military. We will use them to spy on our internal enemies: mutual fund manager, big corporation CEO, politicians, medias people, think tanks members, Jewish organization,
I told you that I did war before.
jadne avril on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 3:45 pm
Create a financial unit withing the FBI and CIA of specialized accounts to start tracking all financial transactions taking place inside big mutual fund such Blackrock, Vanguard, State Street. If needed take control of them. Start tracking where the money to build all these condos is coming from and who is financing them with money.
I told you that I did war before.
Melane jarmal on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 4:15 pm
Funny as fuck if you have a real IQ to understand the ironic humor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tG2ro7UZOUE
aldin maril on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 4:32 pm
This is Quebecers version of above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mgicXtzUyw
ladie marie on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 5:04 pm
I will write it exactly as I see in my head.
Attached to a wall and milked for your sperm like a fucking slave with no rights. The sperm had to come out no matter what. The sperm has to come by whatever means: dominate, submissive, machine extraction. It had to come out.
Yeline crapy on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 5:21 pm
The sperm had to come out. It was a matter of life or death. If pissing on a women was needed to get and erection and ejaculation so be it. If an anal fisting was needed so be it. It had to come out at any cost. Without sperm it was absolute death for us.
alen jamal on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 6:05 pm
Procreators sexual appetite was carefully managed. It was important to keep the sexual appetite of these procreators high, as the production of sperm should no be interrupted in anyway. The sperm had to flow out. it was a matter of death or life.
heline marcie on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 6:27 pm
I am probably making this shit up but I will write it down anyway.
The procreators had 3 characteristics: highly intelligent, live a long life, and were strong. They could lift heavy weighs.
They lived a life of luxury and abondance. Had sex with different women, it was never the same women.
dudle dernie on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 6:29 pm
There were no skinny men among the procreators. They were all big men slightly obese.
alaine jamal on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 6:34 pm
There were no short men among the procreators. They were all tall.
alain yelane on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 6:38 pm
Because these men were big and lack flexibility, female were trained to compensate for that by working on their flexibility to make sex easier.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0S22VY2_PTw
I am probably making that shit up. I cannot prove anything of this.
alane jeanette on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 6:42 pm
You see what I mean:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tX95vNuShw
jean machal on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 7:02 pm
I think the women were doing all the jobs for us. We just lay down on our back why she was talking care of business.
The lower level procreator had access to sexual dominate and different kind of sex.
There were a clear distinction between the superior and inferior procreators. THe size was one of them.
I am probably inventing all this shit.
xend makia on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 7:36 pm
If I remember correctly, being skinny was seen as being an inferior man and procreator. Everybody knew that.
uelye derie on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 7:40 pm
Men without a belly were seen as low quality men with a lot of genetic defects. They were seen as genetic rejects not worthy of life.
jdyke selein on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 7:51 pm
A lot of privileges were attached with being a superior procreators. Infinite money was one of them and better housing.
aldine jamal on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 7:58 pm
The skinny people were use to do hard labor. If you had a flat belly, you were the ones doing the hard labor and dying in they fields.
adldin ilude on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 8:04 pm
The superior and inferior men did not have the same type of sex and the same type of women. They were women specially created to have sex with the superior men.
welin xera on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 8:11 pm
Sex with a superior man was more sophisticated and exotic compare to the inferior man where the sex was much more animal type.
I am probably making this shit up. Probably all of this is false.
heline jamale on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 8:27 pm
The superior man could pursue any projects that he likes. If he like chemistry, he had access to a chemistry lab where you live. the superior man had access to infinite money and the best housing.
The inferior man was treated as cattle.
They were 2 type of female one for the animal sex that was reserve for the inferior man and the sophisticated female that was reserved for the superior man. Only the sophisticated female were capable of practicing exotic sophisticated sex.
kaine ferni on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 8:29 pm
I don’t remember what exotic sophisticated sex was.
jeid verre on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 8:33 pm
They were more inferior men than superior men. I think they revolted and this type of society was abandoned.
udle feei on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 8:42 pm
We have no intention of keeping earth alive. We will restart from scratch. We will kill everyone on earth and restart something better. We will remove the inferior man out of the equation and keep only superior man and maybe the superior women.
we consider earth a big failure and not worth continuing. It is not normale that I have to beg for money so I can drive around and to study how this reality is collapsing.
We lost too much datas to forgive earth for the lost of datas we are suffering. I told you to send me money 2 year ago.
jerad krustler on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 9:10 pm
I really don’t remember how sex was taking place with the superior man. It is pretty obvious that we are too big to have regular sex.
jean laporte on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 9:23 pm
I can even not see my penis from above. I have to pee sitting down like a women. How can you have sex when you are so big. Heavier you are less flexible you are. You need real stiff joints to keep all this structure stiff when standing up. See Sumo wrestlers.
The woman has to compensate for the lack of rigidity, this is my theory. I never tested it, so I can be wrong.
jaune marie on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 9:37 pm
The woman has to compensate for the lack of flexibility, this is my theory. I never tested it, so I can be wrong. Shorter, smaller and more flexible the women is, easier it is to have sex.
alain jere on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 9:52 pm
You see the one with her legs up in the air. Maybe this could work.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/fKDO_vzg2DQ
hdekine jeremiah on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 10:06 pm
20:31 this look like sexual positions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnddPUNhCU4
alain jerel on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 10:11 pm
21:10 she is slowing descending for sexual penetration or some kind of vaginal rubbing. It is right there in front of your face.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnddPUNhCU4
I fucking hate this planet.
maie laleche on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 10:32 pm
21:10 she is slowing descending for sexual penetration or some kind of vaginal rubbing. It is right there in front of your face. This could work on a fat man like me laying down on his back.
She is lowering herself until the contact with the penis is done and then raise her legs to put all her weight against the penis and compressing the penis in order to maintain an erection or start an erection. See at 21:10.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnddPUNhCU4
feet maia on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 10:40 pm
5:33 this could also work as a sexual position. She is presenting one of her feet to the man face and he can kiss her feet while he is having his penis compress by her vagina. I am not totally sure if it would work. She is using the man body as some kind of training mat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvsXZ2A9y2Q
yeline marchine on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 10:45 pm
19:38 I am not sure what they are tying to achieve. If she is naked he can look at her butt and masturbate. she put her hands on the bed instead of his body.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvsXZ2A9y2Q
God I hate this fuckin planet, all about sex and procreation.
alai marche on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 10:52 pm
Slow technique of masturbation by moving her legs left and right. She is changing the weight she put on the penis by moving her legs. See at 6:12
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5mAnWMSLAs
jean laute on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 10:58 pm
This could also work done by a small women. She sits on his chest and show him her vagina. It could be seen as a way to offer her vagina to him.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/0xuhoY-hTak
udline jame on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 11:03 pm
8:31 this could also work if done by a small women. It is a sophisticated way to put her asshole into his face while she masturbate him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0l7OayKW8A
udlei fei on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 11:09 pm
0:57 this could also work as a sexual position if done by a small women. She laid on top of him and she put her feet into his mouth while he looks are her vagina and butt crack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Q4DdQIXFRQ
oloy erene on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 11:19 pm
all the crap are sophisticated sexual positions only accessible to superior man.
I could go on and on but I will stop here.
4:56 is a sophisticated way to show her breast to him so he can look at her breast for a below instead of above. It is a another way to offer him her tits. She lay on top of him to have maximum skin contact.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2p__6cmD4yY
alain lebreme on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 11:33 pm
This is again some kind of sexual position. Not sure that it will work on a man of my size. It looks inconfortable. maybe if it is done slowly it could work. Really not sure about that.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/K7T4YijExlM
isabelle lapoante on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 11:44 pm
Small women like that can lay down on top of me easily. They can even stand up on top of me and not hurting me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GicqWFVzvZU
hdie erline on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 11:49 pm
Nothing good has ever come out of UK and Europe. Feminism, diversity are mainly Europeans ideas. Why do you think we pushed them far back into the North with the main goal of killing them all.
udle quran on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 11:51 pm
Anyway, it is over for earth. We are terminating this project and moving to something else. We lost too much precious datas now, no point of keeping earth alive anymore.
yele marcus on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 12:23 am
Nothing good has ever came out of Europe and UK. Hong Kong drug trafficking from UK, Wind mill from Europe, diversity, human right tribunal from Europe, WW1 ww2 another Europeans thing, feminism, gay rights, globalism, communism, one world government mainly all Europeans ideas. Less you deal with them better you are.
yele marcus on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 12:25 am
Israel creation another UK idea.
uraine erlne on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 12:29 am
The lost of datas is a big deal for us. I have to beg for money just to buy a new car so I can drive to Montreal to see what happen. It would have never happen in my other life.
There is really no point for us at this point to keep earth alive.
bert janette on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 12:54 am
We are really leaving among the dead as mentioned in the book of life. The book of life contains the name of the chosen one that will leave earth. If you are not in the book of life, you are an dead person.
You change a whole reality make everyone ugly and nobody is seing it. They are the dead of the bible and GOD knows it.
We really live in the underworld.
nadie maher on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 12:57 am
Look at the size of his fucking nose. He still believe in his head that he is beautiful.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5bji9sTKF54
xen reno on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 12:59 am
They are so dead that they can not see their own image in a mirror. Exactly like a vampire.
Look at the size of his fucking nose. He still believe in his head that he is beautiful.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5bji9sTKF54
cerine illusion on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 1:04 am
This is how they operate mentally.
These precious illusions in my head
Did not let me down when I was defenseless
And parting with them is like parting with invisible best friends
They even wrote a song about how their live in world of illusion.
Alanis Morissette – Precious Illusions
You’ll rescue me, right?
In the exact same way they never did
I’ll be happy, right?
When your healing powers kick in
You’ll complete me, right?
Then my life can finally begin
I’ll be worthy, right?
Only when you realize the gem I am
[Pre-Chorus]
But this won’t work now the way it once did
And I won’t keep it up even though I would love to
Once I know who I’m not then I’ll know who I am
But I know I won’t keep on playing the victim
[Chorus]
These precious illusions in my head
Did not let me down when I was defenseless
And parting with them is like parting with invisible best friends
[Verse 2]
This ring will help me yet
As will you, knight in shining armor
This pill will help me yet
As will these boys gone through like water
See Alanis Morissette Live
Get tickets as low as $52
You might also like
21 Things I Want in a Lover
Alanis Morissette
Surrendering
Alanis Morissette
Not as We
Alanis Morissette
[Pre-Chorus]
But this won’t work as well as the way it once did
Because I want to decide between survival and bliss
And though I know who I’m not I still don’t know who I am
But I know I won’t keep on playing the victim
[Chorus]
These precious illusions in my head
Did not let me down when I was a kid
And parting with them is like parting with a childhood best friend
[Bridge]
I’ve spent so long firmly looking outside me
I’ve spent so much time living in survival mode
[Pre-Chorus]
This won’t work now the way it once did
‘Cause I want to decide between survival and bliss
Now I know who I’m not, I still don’t know who I am
But I know I won’t keep on playing the victim
[Chorus]
These precious illusions in my head
Did not let me down when I was defenseless
And parting with them is like parting with invisible best friends
These precious illusions in my head
Did not let me down when I was a kid
And parting with them is like parting with a childhood best friend
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErK3OkfyMBE
Janvie mars on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 1:14 am
They highlighted in gray the best part of the song so you can understand their psychology.
https://genius.com/Alanis-morissette-precious-illusions-lyrics
Words like survival and bliss and But I know I won’t keep on playing the victim
Their mental psychologic map is all there in one song.
xero nero on Wed, 11th Jun 2025 1:25 am
I cannot believe that crap.
Anonymous Rex (2004)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w26HszJviQ8