It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
fane larouse on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 7:45 am
Putain de petites merde sales sans pouvoir real. Crisse de petits losers minables. Des opérations complétement ratées exécutées par des losers minables.
yelen laoei on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 7:54 am
Je pourrais continuer a pu finir. On deal icitte avec de majeur losers. COVID n’a pas marché, 9/11 n’a pas marché, rien de ce qu’ils font ne fonctionnent. Les résultats obtenus sont marginaux et presque inexistants. La seule chose qu’ils ont accomplies, c’est de me faire chier ben solide. Crisse de trous du cul sales sans intelligence.
xeno jaie on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 8:23 am
Quand ils ont rentré la salope Britannique sale a Carney au Canada je savais que leur operation avait complètement échoué. Ils ont toujours été juste des minables pas intelligent.
macrue ene on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 8:47 am
Then these fucking loser (people behind COVID, Trump, Carney, 9/11) with no real power came up with the Biden autopen story. You want to know why. Because they are not capable of locating who is controlling earth. So they are looking for people who is really controlling and the cannot find them. So they came up with the autopen story in a hope to get so information about how is controlling earth.
Again it is a total failure, everything they do is a failure.
beteran nde on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 8:53 am
For me Carney will always represent the face of failure. He is their failure. Each time I see his face I think about a fail operation that is going no where with minimal result.
PM Mark Carney delivers speech on defence and security
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQh1mqZNbTk
I told you they are just fucking losers, the installation of Carney by them is the proof of that.
heline beke on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 8:59 am
Their strategy to stop the invasions of earth is psychological gaslighting. It is to transform earth into a mental asylum and drive people mentally insane in a hope that the invasion will stop. Doing so they drive also the mentally sane people like me insane and demoralized the whole population of earth making any kind of rebuilding impossible. The end of earth civilization means they will never be able to find who is controlling earth. Just fucking losers they are. I could go on and on and on about how this is a failed operations.
jdame narine on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 9:08 am
Now their strategy has failed. Carney is the proof of that. Now they need a real flesh being like me to do the work they cannot do. Meaning they need a real flesh being to drive down to the EPA head quarters and ask them questions directly. They cannot find anybody that is willing to ruin their life for them or for earth or save the real flesh beings with a soul.
We go back to the question of money. Why are you not here to support me financially? You want me to take the taxi. Fucking pathetic pieces of shits.
alain marcotte on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 10:06 am
0:12 Asian sexual dominatrix. Best erection and ejaculation you will ever get. Some of them can build you up an erection from nothing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdH1QxbLhXU
alain lamarch on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 10:13 am
According the some chat about sexual tourism, nothing beat the Asiatic if you are into heavy anal fisting done by a women. They even talk about that in the comment section of some porns videos. I don’t know if it true or not, but that what they say.
I have so much hatred for the Whites race, just pathetic losers. Too bad they are still alive. The negros and arabs are currently taking care of genocide the Whites population of Europe by mass invasion. Cannot come to soon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdH1QxbLhXU
yelne martime on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 10:27 am
Apparently nothing beat the Asiatic if you are into sexual tourism. According to some chat the best places are: Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Philippines. Apparently you can get everything you want sexually wise. Fuck the Whites race, too bad we were not able to genocide them completely the first time when we pushed them into the cold Nordic land. Negro and Arab will finish the job we were not able to do the first time.
alaine jeanime on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 11:10 am
South East Asia the place to go if you are into sexual tourism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFjFWJDmW0c
It is time to finish off the Jews and Europeans of Europe for good.
udle welen on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 11:20 am
2:20 cannot be more sexual then that. Apparently I am the only ones that can see it. Nobody else can see including main street media.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8Ripc-5eTo
My youtube page if full of highly sexualized content. The Jews and the Whites are a plaque on earth that deserver extinction. Europe and everyone in it needs to die.
jeand lamdi on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 1:02 pm
Crisse de salopes Européennes, sales, vous n’êtes pas tous encore morts mes crisse de salope communistes Françaises. Quand allez vous tous mourir mes câlisse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESd_d14gNQ4
Crisse de salopes Européennes de tabernacle.
yeld marchand on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 1:08 pm
Carney the face of failure. Carney the face telling us that it is time to move to much more drastic actions as this operation is seen by us as a total failure. We will have to take over and do thing our way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QT3OqFOwxSY
ydlne chamine on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 3:08 pm
Trump and Carney the faces of failure. Each time I see them I think to myself, this operation is a total failure and managed by idiots. Trump the face of failure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwYmBOzhYjY
You better to start showing real results, because we won’t tolerate that much more longer.
kenie hamai on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 4:45 pm
We have enought of this kind of BS below:
Trump sends clear message to Iran on nuclear deal: ‘Won’t be enriching’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtZVzHdQaAM
If I was you, I will work at providing real results. We will not lose that much datas any longer because you did not have a mechanism to send me money. Show real results now.
Trump and Carney, each time I see I think of how much this operation is a failure and how much we are running out of patience.
jamei kdile on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 4:52 pm
I should have never left Thailand. They have a real system of humour unlike the fucking Whites. Whites people cannot die fast enough to please. Fuck losers.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/bHg-ck0GNr8
oliesia greahe on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 9:54 pm
Each time I see this bitch in black, I think sexual realm. I think of long hard strong erection that is never ending. I think of ejaculation so strong that it feels like a gun bullet is travelling at high speed through you urethra. I think of realm only field with sexual energy where men virility and masculinity is worship. It is probably not accurate but I will write it anyway. the whites Europeans man, the genetic garbage that no one wants.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPg0UMiMoTE
jaime fernell on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 10:03 pm
As I said and Britishs and Europeans people cannot bleed enough before they die. The more the bleed before death, the more pleasure I have. Why do you think they are talking about war and peace all the time. Because the whole planet earth went to war against them and we made them bleed properly before they die. There are not such thing as Jewish people, their are Whites impostors trying to regain the land they during the last war. We pushed them in a corner of the world where there is no natural resources, this is how much we hate them and how much we wanted them dead.
Je veux voir la salope a Carney saigner a mort pendant que je fourre une salope de 15 ans en avant de lui.
heline marcuoote on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 10:09 pm
You want to know what is the purpose of fucking a women in front of cadavers and dying people. It is to create in her an association between orgasm and death. It is to make sure that the only way she can fully orgasm is when she is being fucked in front of cadavers and dying people. It is a way to change her sexual map and put in her a new sexual map.
Now you know why Europeans invented feminism and violence against women.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpsfYKdGFso
You are not the ones that understand how to rewrite women sexual map.
celenia noxia on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 10:20 pm
How do you train women to hate Jewish people. You fuck her in front of dying Jewish people and Jewish cadavers. This is how you train women at hating Jewish people.
regime madie on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 10:25 pm
Try it for real. You will see that women are not what most people think. Notice the propaganda from Europe trying to make you believe that women are virtuous and perfect.
Europe always ruining everything for the rest of us. It is not South East Asia, China, Russia that are pushing the feminist propaganda, It is Europe and the Jews. It is certainly not Thailand that is pushing this feminism propaganda down the throat of the whole planet.
heline amdie on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 10:29 pm
Europeans trying to pretend that they are more virtuous and better then the rest of the world by pushing on the rest of the world this green energy scam or net zero energy. Always Europe and the Jews.
valeria jamal on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 10:37 pm
How many Jewish and Europeans think tanks do we have operating legally on US soil. How Thais think tanks do we have operating on US soil: none.
A lot of Jewish and Europeans traitor on US soil. A lot, too much if you ask me.
jaime akim on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 10:48 pm
The first thing that must be done is to close all embassies from UK, Israel and Europe located on US soil. Also close all the embassies that we have in UK, Israel and Europe.
After that you go after the Jewish and Europeans traitors currently living on US soil.
jeami fernel on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 11:37 pm
It is probably not accurate but I will write it down anyway. I rememver a room where men were tie up to a wall naked. There were all kind of women with all kinds of outfits: dominatrix, bathing suit, naked, lingerie. Men were milk for the sperm as it was seen as a precious commodity and something to cherish. The men that could not be milked by hands where milk using a machine. The sperm had to get out any possible way.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/caught-mommy-milking-my-boyfriend-with-milking-machine-niurakoshkina-xhIYTze
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/dominatrix-milking-day-2652791
It is probably not accurate, most likely something I made up, but I would put it here anyway.
yelen macotis on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 11:50 pm
There were different categories of men, the superiors and inferiors men. Only the superiors men were milked for their sperm.
There were also something called prostate management done on superiors men. It could be done with a finger, a fist or a strapon. it was done to ensure sperm of higher quality. It is probably not true but I will put it here.
jadie marcus on Mon, 9th Jun 2025 11:55 pm
Prostate management done during sperm milking. If I remember correctly it was done to ensure the highest sperm quality possible. Milking like a fucking slave for the sperm.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/the-new-gf-offered-me-a-massage-without-specifying-prostate-massage-xhFP27K
yelen marculs on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 12:40 am
You guys need to come up with better shit they this.
Trump Claims Call With Netanyahu Went ‘Very Smooth’ And Included Talk Of Iran Negotiations
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2CfJ6O_GK0
You guys need to come up with better shit then this, or we are could to pull the plug on everything. You guy need to show up more imagination the this. We consider your work as primitive and none interesting. You better to improve yourself.
alaine marcle on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 12:44 am
You guys better to come with better shit then Trump, Carney, G7, covid, long neck, face moved forward, Israel war, Ukraine war, taiwan war. Start improving your work. We are fed with your lack of results.
yelne amrile on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 12:48 am
Each time I take walk I can witness how much datas we are losing because you did not have a mechanisms to send me money so I can run my own studies. Better get your shit together.
ydle laidme on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 1:09 am
You better start taking real action such as abolishing the Canada firearms laws, the ATF and the EPA. This bullshit child play ( Trump, Carney, G7, covid, long neck, face moved forward, Israel war, Ukraine war, Taiwan war, reptile hands, big ears, Biden autopen) is starting to annoy us.
Don’t tell me that I did not tell you about it.
diem karim on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 2:22 am
Each time I take walk I can witness how much datas we are losing because you did not have a mechanisms to send me money so I can run my own studies. Better get your shit together. You better to find a mechanism to send me money very soon, otherwise we might get upset about the datas for are losing. I strongly suggest you find a mechanism to give money really fast.
alain jedima on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 2:43 am
if you are an inferior beings with genetics defects or a tares, it would make sense that you try to use the sperm of a superior being as a way to correct the bad DNA of your specie with artificial insemination using the sperm coming from a superior being with barely any genetic defects. That could be one explanation why they worship sperm so much.
grema ulie on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 3:00 am
This is funny, they are a dying specie milking superior mem for their sperm so they can inseminate their own women and improve their race. It makes me laugh. It could also be real sex. A inferior women with a superior man.
Prostate management using a finger, a small female fist or a strapon.
jdem maire on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 10:06 am
Each time I take walk I can witness how much datas we are losing because you did not have a mechanisms to send me money so I can run my own studies. Better get your shit together. You better to find a mechanism to send me money very soon, otherwise we might get upset about the datas for are losing. I strongly suggest you find a mechanism to give money really fast.
We are running out of patience. Find a way to send me money and start proving us with real results that are actually useful.
Heavy Snow And Freeze Sweep New Zealand; South Africa Sees Snow; Arctic Ice Grows In Key Regions; + Atlantic Cools Sharply, Dampening Hurricane Hype
heine ddie on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 10:10 am
We need real results that are useful. This bullshit child play ( Trump, Carney, G7, covid, long neck, face moved forward, Israel war, Ukraine war, Taiwan war, reptile hands, big ears, Biden autopen) is starting to annoy us.
If you cannot provide us with useful results, give me money so I can do my own studies.
betei machete on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 11:12 am
I suggest that you start providing us with real and useful results, if you cannot I suggest that you start to deposit money directly into my bank account. Our patience with earth is running low.
jemaie detria on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 11:23 am
You lift up a 4×4 12 inch long wooden piece of wood that is half buried into the ground and you will find that there is no insects under it. I suggest that you start providing us with real and useful results, if you cannot I suggest that you start to deposit money directly into my bank account. Our patience with earth is running low.
All the insects are dead and the bird population is following the same path. There is still some birds out there by they are seeing less and less of them. I suggest that you start deposit money in my banks account now.
alain meridian on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 11:28 am
I guess if all the insects are dead, the globalist plan to feed people insects as a source of protein just die. globalists are just low IQ failure good at nothing. Suggest that you provide real and useful results.
narina genia on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 11:33 am
I said that many time, only the chosen ones that have received an updated body to adapt to the new energy field will live. I suggest that you get you shit together now.
yelen marcis on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 11:43 am
For this time of the year it is cold. I even did not install my windows air conditionner. At night I have to close my window because it is too cold. I suggest that you get you shit together now.
Heavy Snow And Freeze Sweep New Zealand; South Africa Sees Snow; Arctic Ice Grows In Key Regions; + Atlantic Cools Sharply, Dampening Hurricane Hype
Get your house in order.
aldin oredia on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 2:30 pm
This is fine but it is not good enough. You need to develop a strategy to control the crowd inside a build of 10 floors or more. You need a strategy to control the crowd using the fire exits as choking points. you also need a way to lock these fire exist doors and allow the troops to leave the building securely. You also need to teach the basic about the how the electrical wiring id sone inside these building and how to control the elevators. You also need to train with militia groups.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I99QVBiorK8
This is fine but it is not good enough. You need to develop a strategy to control the crowd inside a build of 10 floors or more. You need a strategy to control the crowd using the fire exits as choking points. you also need a way to look these fire exist doors and the troops leaving the build.
Jamie kerine on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 2:36 pm
Send your best men to spy inside the EPA buildings. Try to get the electrical schematics of the EPA buildings, and the type of elevators they are using. Try to get the floor drawings of the build and studies where the fire exits are located and how to use them as choke points. Also get all information about where the offices of the high level management are located.
alaine jean on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 2:40 pm
Locate the room where the electrical panels are located and teach them how to close breakers. If need hire electrical engineers and electricians and integrate them into the combat troops.
nadie jean on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 2:47 pm
Also look if it possible to collapse a whole building like United Nations head quater by bombing the first and second floor only. No need to waist more ammo then needed. Look at some strategies of how to collapse some buildings by bombing the supporting structures located at the base of the building.
akdine sline on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 3:00 pm
I told you that I did war before.
heline jenine on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 3:11 pm
Start a strategy of information containment, dont share critical informations with Israel, UK and Europe.
udle weir on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 3:18 pm
Make a list of all the European and Jewish think tanks on US soil and start making a list of the eternal enemies within the US. Prepare an execution chamber to execute them. Created a special unit with special training to execute the traitors.
dyele deoe on Tue, 10th Jun 2025 3:23 pm
Redirect FBI and CIA ressources to spy on the staff of European and Jewish think tank on US soil. Spy on their bank accounts and money flow.