It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Bertrain Jane on Tue, 3rd Jun 2025 5:59 pm
I really well done song. A lot of sophistications and subtility in it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z71ypkXc9KQ
Olivia Newtonw on Tue, 3rd Jun 2025 6:13 pm
The drum is exactly like I remember it. This low frequency type of bowl kind of graph. 4:33 to 4:36, this is how I remember the sound of a real drum, a mechanical impact sound propagating through air. Push up 100 Hz and 10K Hz frequencies to the max on the equalizer.
Earth population is too mediocre to produce something that sophisticated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z71ypkXc9KQ
Heline marcille on Tue, 3rd Jun 2025 6:28 pm
The finer things of life. Most of you don’t know what I am talking about because you never left earth. Sophisticated music, sophisticates women, sophisticated sex and sophisticated entertainment places. Earth population deserver mediocrity.
Mediocre people should only know mediocrity, the finer things of life are for the superiors beings only.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z71ypkXc9KQ
Jamal laperse on Tue, 3rd Jun 2025 6:40 pm
This video make me think of a procréation/sex realm. Not sure why. Sophisticated music, sophisticates women, sophisticated sex and sophisticated entertainment places.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z71ypkXc9KQ
Heline jeanete on Tue, 3rd Jun 2025 8:49 pm
It is perfect to the last detail. The musicians that are supposed to move the most are the singer, guitar player and the saxophone player. They are the main visual entertainers of the scene. The bass player is supposed to move in a contain smooth manner same for the drummer. Perfect to the last detail.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z71ypkXc9KQ
The finer things of life.
Jamel Laporte on Tue, 3rd Jun 2025 9:27 pm
They even included a fat musician among the band. Usually they are all skinny,.They made the fat guy look cool with his lose tie knot. I have nothing to say, it is perfect in the last details. Bring back a lot of plesants memories.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z71ypkXc9KQ
Karine laverse on Tue, 3rd Jun 2025 10:31 pm
The sun has changed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6ElWpEPQxI
What did I told you in my previous comment. A new energy field is being installed on earth. Only people with an updated flesh body adapted to the energy field or sun will live. Everyone else will die.
Why is the Sun getting brighter?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynecMHt4LSc
As I like to say, only the chosen ones will live, everyone else will die.
I told you to not fuck with me. I told you that I would kill you all because of Canada firearms laws. I told you to not elect the fucking British whore of Carney. I told you that I would not tolerate to have a British representative as prime minister of Canada.
I told to not fuck with me, you don’t who I am and where I have been in my previous life.
Ulyse marcotte on Tue, 3rd Jun 2025 10:49 pm
The sun has changed so much that all the insects around my house are gone. I count 3 insects on concrete wall. They all disappeared.
Even the black molds on my concret stairs are dying. Everything is dying. Only the chosen ones will live.
Give me money so I can buy a new car and drive down to Montreal to see how bad it is.
https://plasticinehouse.com/how-to-remove-mold-from-concrete/
Even the mold on my wooden patio deck are dying. It took only one year to kill all the insects around my house.
I expect that humans that have not received an updated body will start to dying in big number starting now.
Go look at the sun, it is white, not Yellow, not Orange White. I told you to not fuck with me. you don’t know who I am and where I have been in my previous lifes.
ilian marco on Tue, 3rd Jun 2025 11:33 pm
If my theory is correct, everything on earth will die: trees, insects, fishes, all the green vegetation, all the people of earth, mold, lichen, grass, vegetable plants. All that will be left is the ground and the sky.
Only the chosen ones with an updated flesh body will live. You should know by now if you are receiving an updated flesh body just be looking at your skin.
yellen verila on Tue, 3rd Jun 2025 11:37 pm
I told to not fuck with me.
werie grelew on Tue, 3rd Jun 2025 11:53 pm
I told you that I would kill everyone living on earth. I warned you.
xeno yela on Wed, 4th Jun 2025 12:01 am
Never take away the weapons of a warrior like Canada did with its firearms laws. You never know what you will unleash upon yourself. Die and learn.
yelen ilina on Wed, 4th Jun 2025 7:32 am
look at the face of McMahon. Set the speed at 0.25 and watch her eyes. She is dying because she did not receive the protection needed to stay alive during the installation of the new energy field on earth. She is in a state of disintegration energetic. You will see every living things dying as time move on. I expect big die off of human as time move forward. It should start about now since all the insects, trees and even mold on concret are dying.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tk6E8jJVnFw
The black eyes of Elon Mush is a also a sign energetic disintegration.
Marcel fernel on Wed, 4th Jun 2025 7:47 am
Je vous l’avait dit de ne pas installer la crisse de salope Britannique a Carney au pouvoir. Je vous l’avaid dit que je déteste les Juifs, les Britanniques et les Europeans.
Je vous l’avait dit de ne pas me faire chier.
Crisse de salope Britannique de câlisse.
alain marville on Wed, 4th Jun 2025 8:16 am
There is barely any insects. The asphalt has no ants. Nothing, I also suspect that the recycle steel is too contaminated with copper. It speed up galvanique corrosion and make metal softer. Car steel rust really fast.
I told you. I never saw sexual reproduction creating a long lasting reality.
I never saw a reality designed around the conservation of mass last long. It creates to much pollution and garbage.
I never saw a matrix solid such as earth periodic table last long.
We told you not to build such a reality, they never live long.
The flesh body is shit creation and a failure. We told you so. Also a reality based on the flesh body and long linear displacement, think of a road, never last long. The flesh body is not designed to travel long distance on foot. Without cars, this reality will die even faster.
bertine jean on Wed, 4th Jun 2025 8:19 am
We told you to not create a reality based on heat as a mean to transform its environment: think of steel casting process or heat plastic forming process.
I told you to not fuck with me. I told you that I would kill you all and kill your reality.
nedia nervela on Wed, 4th Jun 2025 8:23 am
I look a little more closely at the issue of plastic parts on combustion engines. You are so fucked, you just have no idea.
trevle jeanice on Wed, 4th Jun 2025 9:35 am
Video making fun of the matrix of solid. Also making fun of a reality based on long linear travel. Flesh body is not good enough to travel long distance. You absolutely need some kind of motor vehicle if you want to keep earth reality alive. You are fucked and you know it. You also know that I am right about almost everything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=re_I-ca3wiI
yleud grain on Wed, 4th Jun 2025 10:08 am
Lets talk about entropic degradation. You did not want to give eternal life to flesh beings, so you invented aging or entropic degradation.
It means that you reality will die because you had to make entropic degradation a general concept that applied to everything otherwise flesh beings would have not believe that they are mortals.
You are so fucked that it is actually funny. You are just a fucking low IQ creator probably copying someone else work.
ulyain jeamire on Wed, 4th Jun 2025 10:26 am
I am not here to help you, I am here to see you failed and die. Babylon has fallen, or earth reality has fallen.
“The merchants of the earth will weep and mourn over her because no one buys their cargoes anymore— 12 cargoes of gold, silver, precious stones and pearls; fine linen, purple, silk and scarlet cloth; every sort of citron wood, and articles of every kind made of ivory, costly wood, bronze, iron and marble; 13 cargoes of cinnamon and spice, of incense, myrrh and frankincense, of wine and olive oil, of fine flour and wheat; cattle and sheep; horses and carriages; and human beings sold as slaves.
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=revelation%2018&version=NIV
I am a traveller of both time and space to been where I have been.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_6M254L0XU
elanin jean on Wed, 4th Jun 2025 10:58 am
The goal of food is to make you believe that you are mortal. This goes back to the comment above about entropic degradation. You don’t need food if you have an upgraded body. Entropic degradation is what will kill their own reality. Fucking funny as fuck. I told you, that are just fucking low IQ losers.
yeen carle on Wed, 4th Jun 2025 11:27 am
Older steel seem to rust less than today steel. Probably too much copper in today steel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agCs3Y2j-5U
I will assume this is real and not CGI.
ulaine marcile on Wed, 4th Jun 2025 11:50 am
I told you. There is only so much I can do by watching videos. I told you that I need money if you want better analysis. I told you that I need a car. Nothing beats seeing it with its own eyes.
uilina jamale on Wed, 4th Jun 2025 1:46 pm
Fucking whore. Will do anything to get an erection out of you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeGiexEfRjY
ulysee dere on Wed, 4th Jun 2025 2:26 pm
YouTube is full of soft porno clips and nobody is talking about it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7c1sYa-o-Lw
martine jean on Wed, 4th Jun 2025 3:51 pm
I think almost everything has been revealed. If you want more quality comments you will have to help financially. Otherwise I will repeat the same thing over and over. Anyway, everyone on earth is already dead, just don’t know it yet.
yelein selene on Wed, 4th Jun 2025 5:55 pm
The finer things of life. Sophisticated music arrangement, sophisticates women, sophisticated sex and sophisticated entertainment places. You enter a room and everyone knows who you are. They admirer, respect and fear you at the same time. You only have sex with women that understand how to the keep you in erection for a long period. Sophisticated women that are well train into the art of male sexual gratification. Typical female clothing you would see at these places. You have not live a full life if you have not done that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8PqtjJdtnU
ctv capote on Wed, 4th Jun 2025 6:04 pm
The finer things of life. Sophisticated music arrangement, sophisticates women, sophisticated sex and sophisticated entertainment places. . Sophisticated women that are well train into the art of male sexual gratification.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQbcRNhbDIg
yelen marchal on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 11:59 am
This is a message to the invisible world, such as the people behind covid. You will also be killed like the humans on earth. We lost too much precious datas because you did not give me money 2 years ago. You will be killed for your incompetence. Too much precious datas lost because of lack of foresight.
jean fornie on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 12:07 pm
You too incompetent to be kept alive. Everyone will be killed except the creators of high level. This include the people that have installed Carney in power, people behind the COVID pandemic. You are all going to die stupid pieces of shit. We don’t care about the auto pen story, we care about colleting datas. You failed on this lever by not giving me money 2 years ago. It is just amazing the quantities of datas we are losing because of your incompetence, you will be killed for that.
jean marine on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 1:29 pm
Who ever is behind the COVID scamdemic, Carney installation in Canada will also be killed. We are going to widen the energy field also to make sure that we kill everyone on earth, including the invisibles beings behind the COVID and Carney. It is just amazing the quantities of datas we are losing because you did not give me money 2 years. The datas are lost forever and unrecoverable. You will be killed for that also. Only the chosen will live and receive a protection against the changing energy field. You will be killed for your incompetence.
jean marcus on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 1:43 pm
The energy field will be widen to kill everything that is alive on earth, including invisible beings. The whole planet earth will be fried under intense heat for your gross incompetence. Only the chosen ones will receive protection. It is just fucking unbelievable that amount of precious datas we are losing. The whole earth energy field will be purged out of life using a new energy field configuration.
ulyse jamal on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 3:27 pm
Earth is going to get it good and hard for all the datas we lost because I did not access to money. You are all going to pay for that direly. All of you, in and out of earth.
hekine denis on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 3:44 pm
Some many valuable information have been lost and are unrecoverable. You funking cock sucker are going to get it really good and hard. Fucking low IQ loser, never able to do anything right. Always fucking up everything. This is was the last time you do that to us.
Weling Jamming on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 4:07 pm
It is the last time you let me down like that. It was the last time we lost datas because of your incompetence. You are going to be killed for that. There is just so much incompetence we can endure, and it is enough. Fucking loser.
farine blete on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 4:52 pm
Fucking losers. I was supposed to get the money 2 year ago, so I could buy all the equipments I needed before the collapse so I could collet all datas I could. How am I going to do after the system collapse and everything freeze. I want you remove out of this project and I want you dead. There is never going to be another opportunity like that fucking loser. DI thought that was su fucking obvious. Why do I think I demanded mones 2 year ago, Fucking worthless losers. There is a big clean up coming, including inside of earth and outside of earth realm We cannot carry such incompetent people with us.
vezina xenale on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 4:59 pm
Fucking worthless losers. I though it was obvious that collection of datas was an importante part of this operation and it should have been done by me. We are going to burn down the whole planet and modify the whole earth energy field to kill everyone in it.
nadie marline on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 6:38 pm
You always have time to make video like this, but you never have any time when it comes to help me. We are going to fuck you over for all the datas we lost because you did not give me money 2 year ago. Watch us clean the whole energy field and kill everything that live in it: human, animals, insectes, plants, trees, invisible beings, mold, lichen. Only the chosen ones will be left alive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvm43EdK0Vc
Without the appropriate datas collection, this operation is a waist of time from our point of view.
Jean marie on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 9:47 pm
the women in red has the same face as Caroline leavitt. I just email Brunet Ford and I told them that all their cars belong to me because all the staff at the dealership will be dead soon because we are changing the sun configuration so it will kill all type of life form. I asked them where the keys for all theirs are located. All the Brunet Ford inventory will belong to me soon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MP3JLq_RUws
jamdie delina on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 9:59 pm
I even give Brunet Ford my real information:
Dxxxs Txxdxx
14xx rue Maxxxxe-Lxxxxde
xxxxl
Hxx 2xx
Québec
Canada
I will come to steal some of your cars as soon as you are all dead. Look on the ground and the air, there is no insects, they are all dead. Next all the human will die.
leltita farnell on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 10:17 pm
Someone want to know a time estimate when all forms of life will dead on earth. 2 to 3 year most likely. Only the eternal human will be left. Just give me your car inventory now. it already belongs to me, you just not intelligent enough to see it. I am the new Omega man of earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWB6Ufh4O98
yelne marchal on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 10:27 pm
World wide beef cattle size is also decreasing. Why. Same as the insects, we have decided to kill all type of life from on earth, because we lost too much datas because you did not give me money 2 year ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tbp22aF4skU
Same thing will happen to chicken and pork. I told you to not fuck with me. It is unacceptable for us to lose so much datas because you were too stupid to give me money.
elain marie on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 10:29 pm
Brunet cars inventories already belong to me. Everything belongs to me.
nadie wellen on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 10:35 pm
I told you so, only the eternal humans will live. Everything else will die: insects, trees, plants, fishes, animals, mold, linchen, invisible beings. Only the chosen eternal humans will live. As I said, Brunet Ford inventories already belong to me.
karine jeanine on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 10:57 pm
No insects mean no food for birds, means death of all the birds. I funking told you to not fuck with me.
Insects and Worms
Insect-eating birds play a vital role in controlling insect populations in ecosystems. Thrushes, warblers, flycatchers, and wrens are insectivorous birds that feed on insects, worms, caterpillars, and spiders. Offering mealworms or suet cakes rich in insects can entice insect-eating birds to visit your yard.
https://learnbirdwatching.com/bird-diet-guide/
Can you see and understand what is happening here. I told you that is unacceptable to us to lose so much datas because you did not give me money 2 years ago.
I also told you to not fuck with my weapons like Canada did with its firearms laws.
hdline arline on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 11:06 pm
If you go outside and hear no birds singing, it is because they are all death because we kill all the insects. I told you that I would seek revenge for insulting me.
alain demure on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 11:15 pm
Go outside like I did today. No insects and barely any birds singing. I fucking told you to not insult me. I fucking told you that I would seek revenge.
lapresds jamerie on Fri, 6th Jun 2025 11:27 pm
I will give you my estimate according to what I see around me. In about 2 to 3 years all form of life will be dead: human, vegetal and animal.
Only the eternal ones will roam earth. Insects are already dead and birds are following the same path. I told you to not fuck with me.
Jean martille on Sat, 7th Jun 2025 12:42 am
Watch the video at 0.25 speed. Not a human face, but an animal face.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jcYl8T6rGA
yellne marcus on Sat, 7th Jun 2025 1:46 am
He did it, he shut down the earth. It is not the first time we destroy earth completely see at 8:00. The code to destroy earth is 666. I told you to not fuck with me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nGT5pwEEGA