It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ulens weleam on Thu, 15th May 2025 11:40 am
You will regret the creation of the Canadian firearms laws. You will have men roaming inside vehicle with guns, the population will defenseless. If you are a politicians, judge, journalist, you will defenseless because of Canada firearms laws. Everything you thought was a good ideas will turn against you and come back to kill you.
yelen refiere on Thu, 15th May 2025 11:50 am
You will realize that the Canadian firearms laws were a bad idea .
You will realize that DEF fluid on diesel engine was a bad idea when the supply chain breakdown and DEF fluid is not available. Your supply chain will be paralyzed and you will have empty shelf everywhere.
Your own stupidity will turn against you and kill you without any mercy.
termina honada on Thu, 15th May 2025 12:13 pm
Honda is the next car company to go bankrupt because of 1.5 liter turbocharge. Look at how small the bolt are at 8:18. It is a really shitty engine with all kind of problems; oil dilution problem, head casket problem, and many more
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZriQAEfJ6RY
Isabelle huot on Thu, 15th May 2025 1:12 pm
I saw her at the grocery store around 2000. She behind a small table showing some kind of food.
You fucking cock suckers. You better to have a food explanations. I am talking about Isabelle. She was prettier back than, now she is fucking ugly. She was fuckable back then, now she is unfuckable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sR4kD4EA93k
Jean mariloue on Thu, 15th May 2025 1:22 pm
She looks like Marilou back then. The younger one. Back then she was fuckable, now she is unfuckable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quc6Cx4H470
treme ulyne on Fri, 16th May 2025 12:20 am
Earth is matrix of solid only modifiable by heat. These kind of realities have no long term future. They are short life realities. They always die. Same as sexual procreation is a failed concept so is the matrix of solide.
I am sure what I can comment on. I think I said everything I had to say.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKMWlq2jwyM
I am repeating myself too much. Almost everything has been revealed. It is time for me to leave earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKMWlq2jwyM
nadine trebla on Fri, 16th May 2025 12:39 am
A reality based on the conservation of mass always create pollution. A matrix of solid is a failed concept. They never last long and always die.
alain depuis on Fri, 16th May 2025 12:47 am
Also earth is reality base on linear travel. It is a failed concept. The flesh body is not a efficient vehicle to travel long distance on foot. This why I told them that if they want me to stay on earth, they will need to provide me motor vehicle on a regular basis, ideally pick up trump.
A reality based on linear travel take too much energy to keep alive. Earth is a failed concept no matter what directions you look at.
Only the chosen ones will live.
ilian parliant on Fri, 16th May 2025 1:10 am
A reality based on the conservation of mass always create trash and pollution. It is a short life reality. They always die. Earth will be no exception to that rule.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGZoqEAOvys
Macoe heline on Fri, 16th May 2025 7:52 am
This is not from me but it illustrate my point.
https://peakoil.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1497790#p1497790
You will be killed by your own stupidity, you stupidity will turn against you and kill you.
You will regret not having access to firearms once the shit hit the fand and the police force is not available. You will be killed by your own stupidity.
You are already dead, you are too stupid to see it.
You fucking cellphone that love so much, will turn against you and kill you.
You restricted Canada firearms laws that you love so much, they will also turn against you and kill you.
You stupidity will turn against you and slaughter you with brutal bloody vengeance..
recahid mellow on Fri, 16th May 2025 8:03 am
You fucking DEF fluid in semi trailer trucks will turn against you and slaughter you when the supply chain stop because of the lack of DEF.
You are about to die because you are too stupid to be kept alive. You will be killed by your own stupidity, what a fucking irony. You thought you were intelligent when in fact you are heavily mentally retarded.
You should have found a mechanism to send me money a long time ago. You are too stupid to see why it is important that I have access to a lot of money.
Again you will be killed by your stupidity. You should have gave me money 2 year ago.
You still be killed by your own stupid like i said. You are just fucking loser.
alain laopte on Fri, 16th May 2025 8:45 am
44:44 engine derated because of a malfunction on the anti pollution system. As I said, you will be killed by your own stupidity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHKxUPDku6Q
https://www.dlsfleetservices.com/articles/common-issues-def-systems-heavy-duty-trucks
ulyse ferine on Fri, 16th May 2025 9:32 am
This what suggested to me. I don’t have an opinion about it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hzs-AytFAYI
ulsye marinae on Fri, 16th May 2025 9:52 am
I don’t believe in EGR and catalytic converter are there to stop pollution. I believe they are there to make car more costly and less reliable. I disable my EGR on my old ford ranger. They truck had nice fucking idle.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/1orVmdczS4U
I told you that your stupidity will kill you. You guns laws will kill you. Your cell phone will kill you.
uaine yamouhd on Fri, 16th May 2025 9:54 am
You are already dead, you are too mentally retarded to see it.
ulyse mairna on Fri, 16th May 2025 10:28 am
I am too lazy to make a full comment about. I would not be surprised if they are hiding inside these mountains.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYsKNMTqJ8k
alain lamare on Fri, 16th May 2025 10:41 am
4:48 look how dense the forest is. The don’t want you to go walk into the forest. They don’t want you to explore the forest. They are using the forest to hide something.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0AITLc3fa8
Aalin leblan on Fri, 16th May 2025 11:07 am
They always said that the forest is beautiful. Did you try to explore the forest where there is no trails with a compass. It is fucking unwalkable. It is full of small mosquitoes. Some people don’t want us to explore the forest. I cannot understand why they say the forest is beautiful.
Try is if you don’t believe me.
artick track on Fri, 16th May 2025 12:57 pm
Go look at Tatra trucks. Truck designed for artic conditions. The engine is inside the cab, they air cool instead of water cool. These are the trucks they used to traverse the Artic to come here. It is just a guess. Looking differential and up to 100 tonnes of loading capacity. These are trucks designed for artic conditions, not Nordic weather, artic weather.
The documentation is on the web somewhere, I don’t remember where it is.
marine lapanne on Fri, 16th May 2025 1:06 pm
Tatra truck with engine inside the cab to keep the engine warn and people warm also, multifuel (diesel, gasoline) , air cool instead of water cool, locking differential on all axels, up of 100 tonnes of trailer capacity. It is an Artic truck.
camila laforbe on Fri, 16th May 2025 1:19 pm
Trucker Life – Springfield, Missouri Underground
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmCVrhXxNmU
karine martel35 on Fri, 16th May 2025 11:30 pm
Is it a real interview. I will assume he is real and these are his personal opinions.
First 3 min, speaking like a typical communist. The strong dominate the weak. He is playing the victimhood for the weak and he softly tying to shame the strong. He wants the strong to be the salve of the weak. He is there to protect the structure of power where the capable people are the slave of the weak. Where the capable people keep the weak alive, because the weak cannot survive on their own. He is there to protect the structure of power where the strong are abused by the weak and amoral people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t845nbW25zY
yelen porlera on Fri, 16th May 2025 11:47 pm
He is doing the promotion of AI as superior as the human mind to make complex decision. As I said these beings would like to hide themself behind AI and make themself invisible using AI.
He is there to sell the idea that human should not fear AI but embrace. They call this a gate keeper or someone protecting the structure of power.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t845nbW25zY
alain ulieane on Sat, 17th May 2025 12:02 am
Why is he talking about the military budget there.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/EZ5x_kbapW8
Because they read my comments and understand my military strategy of light tactical army made of light vehicles and small helicopters.
They understand what I am trying to achieve with my strategy of perimeter control.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqsVVZPQ540
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-E8ndHQVVE
ilian erene on Sat, 17th May 2025 12:21 am
He is basically telling you that human trust toward AI need to be built before AI can take control.
He is basically telling in order that have human to submit to AI, we have to build a trust between human and AI. Building trust among human = building consensus among human that AI is better the us.
Start at 50:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t845nbW25zY
I can small their panic from far away.
alain marcus on Sat, 17th May 2025 1:17 am
Hard Work is a Scam: The Harsh Truth About the Corporate World
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=av3CHCu2zBM
I agree with this. Never contribue more that you have to at work. Just do the bare minimum to not be fired.
elaine yelie1 on Sat, 17th May 2025 10:03 am
I am not going to work with you, you are too stupid. I should have new cars parked in my driveway, I should be able to drive down to Montreal and look around to see what kind of holographic projection I could see. You are a fucking loser and we are losing precious information. You will be killed like the rest of the people on earth. You are not competent enough to handle this operation. You should be removed out of this operation and kill for your gross incompetence, I will kill you wherever you live, inside or outside this world. You are too stupid and incompetent to be keep alive. You should have given me money 2 year ago. This opération is looking like a total failure from my point views. Fucking losers. On top of that you lie to me since I am born. I will kill you for that.
Srerin Amarin on Sat, 17th May 2025 10:36 am
I am going to kill you for what you did to me. You know who you are.
heline marceau on Sat, 17th May 2025 10:38 am
Encore ta crisse de salope Britannique a Carney. Criss de chienne Britannique sale. M’a lui couper la tête au tabernacle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLAGIs4E-eU
jeremiah babe on Sat, 17th May 2025 10:48 am
I told you that we will kill everyone living on earth. It is a full clean up of earth. Only the chosen ones will live.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHUV3xDlnwo
I told you to not fuck with me and insult me.
alain lamarde on Sat, 17th May 2025 11:15 am
Ostie de crisse de salope Britannique avec les crisse d’Europeans sala a merde.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yofEOUCLiyk
Votre ostie d’operation de merde mal runner, que nous fait perdre de preciouses données. Ostie de chienne sale de crisse.
reginal grahim on Sat, 17th May 2025 1:29 pm
fucking losers, we are losing so much datas because you are incompetent. I want you dead.
alain marianal on Sat, 17th May 2025 2:24 pm
You are just fucking incompetent losers. You have all the time in the world to organize Pope Leo XIV’s Inaugural Mass. For this kind of BS you always have time and energy.
While you organize that crap, we are losing precious datas of what is happening in Montreal and in the forest. You are just fucking incompetent pathetic losers. Fuck losers. You will be killed with the rest of earth population. I should have received money 2 years ago so I could start driving around and collect datas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcZecNYXkoA
jerime Jeanine on Sat, 17th May 2025 3:03 pm
Well done, frequency wise it is harmonious. This has not be created on earth. Earth population is too mediocre for that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4PNMz82nzo
eleina journal on Sat, 17th May 2025 3:17 pm
Who create these? It is obvious that it is not coming from earth the population is too mediocre.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxtver2JLR8
Denis laparate on Sat, 17th May 2025 3:52 pm
0:57 when the base guitar and drum move in together. Perfect synchronization. The population of earth is too mediocre to produce such quality. This come from another dimension
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4PNMz82nzo
jeremiah babe on Sun, 18th May 2025 12:17 am
Well done, frequency wise it is harmonious. Who can play with the sonore spectrum like that ?This has not be created on earth. Earth population is too mediocre for that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4PNMz82nzo
Earth is only populated of mediocre people. you want a proof of it. God just told you that you are all mediocre
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nytQtuh_ph4
We are extremely upset that we are losing precious datas because you were not competent enough to send me money 2 year ago. You are going to pay an heavy price for your incompetence and the loss of precious datas.
Wedire kerina on Sun, 18th May 2025 1:23 am
Is Brooklyn a place where a lot of Jewish people live? Is this an event with multiples messages in it. It happen after I wrote the comments above and it happen in a place where a lot of Jewish people live.
Bombing and destruction of Israel, you still think we are joking.
Ultra-Orthodox Jewish residents in Brooklyn, nicknamed “the most Jewish spot on Earth.” Home to the largest Jewish community in the United States, with more than 561,000 living in the borough, larger than that of Tel Aviv.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nytQtuh_ph4
Markine graham on Sun, 18th May 2025 1:34 am
You know who I am , you know my bank account numbers. Just drop the money there. I know that you everything about everyone on earth. Just put the funking money in my bank accounts and make sure that the government of Québec and Canada dont ask question about where the money is coming. After all, it is you that control all the governments of the world.
alain jamel on Sun, 18th May 2025 2:41 am
a lot of women first 2:00 parasitic women everywhere.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwAy-Rn9wNs
jeremah veleria on Sun, 18th May 2025 2:54 am
A lot of female are mixed race Asian with latino. Asia eyes latino lower face.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwAy-Rn9wNs
Betran janette on Sun, 18th May 2025 3:00 am
19:30 female is a mixed race Asian with latino. They are everywhere.
19:34 in blue
19:47 in black
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwAy-Rn9wNs
yelen marchalia on Sun, 18th May 2025 3:19 am
12:55 parasitic female together.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xy482Pt0bB8
Daniella Colomba on Sun, 18th May 2025 3:37 am
Asian mixed with something else, especially women.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwAy-Rn9wNs
Columbian female are mainly Asian female mixed with something else.
Erin Stromvich on Sun, 18th May 2025 3:47 am
You don’t winter in the south, It makes your life much more easier. I am not surprise that South America is invaded. In these nations, you can easily be poor and live quite will compare to the North.
heline marilean on Sun, 18th May 2025 5:37 am
Women are definitely Asian mixed with something else, but not Whites. The darker women are Black mixed with Asian.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwAy-Rn9wNs
pepe mexina on Sun, 18th May 2025 5:48 am
The pure original races are Blacks, Whites and Asians. Everything else is some kind of hybrid: latino, Arab, Mexicans.
Daneile Jeamle on Sun, 18th May 2025 1:44 pm
Part to by pass that start and stop system on car. People have enough of this crap and the government intervention in everything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPn3jmt2IIY
No matter what you do, we will find a way to hack the system.
alain lamaore on Sun, 18th May 2025 1:51 pm
I gave up using a car. I can order grocery online and get them deliver at home for 4.00$. There is no point anymore to own a car.
I told you that you are just fucking incompetent losers. I will now be able to complete isolate myself from the rest of the world by staying at home and sleeping all day. You are losing precious data because you are incompetent. There will be a price the world will have to pay for this incompetence.
I should have received the money 2 years ago. Now I am isolating my self from the outside world. You can go fuck yourself with your fuck British Caney whore. I piss and shit on Carney, the UK, Europeans nations, and the Jews.
karime qurante on Sun, 18th May 2025 2:10 pm
The best part of it, I think I don’t need to eat to say alive. You should have given me money 2 years ago and not argue as to why I was asking for money. Just are just fucking loser.
You are too incompetent to be in charge of this operation.