It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
utle ili on Wed, 14th May 2025 6:16 am
Crisse de salope britannique de câlisse. Ammenez moi la tête de la chienne britannique a carney. Je veux sa tete au tabernacle
Jean lemire on Wed, 14th May 2025 7:19 am
La salope a Carney es tu toujours en view. Crisse de chienne britannique de calisse,
Wellen jellen on Wed, 14th May 2025 7:28 am
Les arbres ne font pas parties des éléments de cohésions. C’est pour cela que vous pouvez changer leurs formes.
J’ai commencé a jacker mon char dans les airs, et je confirme que la gravity s’applique toujours, parce que c’est un élément de cohesion. On va tous vous tuer en utilisant des éléments de cohésions. J
Je parie que tu ne l’avais pas vu venir cela en mes christ de mangeux de merde.
Je vous l’avais que je tuerais tous le monde sur terre a cause des lois canadiennes sur les armes a feu.
Je vous l’avais dis de ne pas m’enculer, mes câlisse.
alain heline on Wed, 14th May 2025 7:33 am
They send a creator (me) from the domaine of creation to kill you all. As the song Kashmir would say:
Oh, let the sun beat down upon my face, with stars to fill my dream.
I am a traveler of both time and space to be where I have been.
To sit with elders of a gentle race this world has seldom seen.
Who talk of days for which they sit and wait
When all will be revealed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_6M254L0XU
Kamine Lepenne on Wed, 14th May 2025 7:40 am
I am not here to help earth. I am here to kill everyone on earth and reestablish the old order of who is in control of the universal energy field. I am here to destroy earth and kill everyone living on it. I am here to reestablish order among the chaos.
Je vais tous vous enculer ben solide mes christ de tabernacle.
Jesuis creator on Wed, 14th May 2025 7:42 am
Ou est la tête de la chienne britannique a Carney. Je veux qu’on amenne sa tête.
alaind grahe on Wed, 14th May 2025 8:05 am
Les osties de salopes juives. Osite que j’ai tuer du Juifs dans mes autres views. Toujours le fun de les voir souffrir avant de mourir. J’ai toujours détesté les juifs, et je vais continuer a les détesté juste qu’a leur extermination totale. Si tu es l’ami des Juif tu es mon enemy.
Trump est donc mon enemy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMfI6ScyVqc
yellin reginal on Wed, 14th May 2025 8:08 am
I will repeat that, I am not here to help earth. I am here to kill everyone on earth. We don’t have the same goal and working for the same people.
ulyse regila on Wed, 14th May 2025 8:59 am
This is a mistake that they invisible beings are making, thinking that they can disable the cohesion élément or calculators.
At the end only the chosen ones will live. That was the initial plan.
grahe element on Wed, 14th May 2025 9:02 am
You can play all the theater that you want, but you cannot disable the cohesions elements or calculators using fake theater. Only the chosen will live or leave earth. that was the initial plan.
martine sucebien on Wed, 14th May 2025 11:36 am
Ostie que c’est drole avec le logo IGA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6dSxnmDHoQ
olima berte on Wed, 14th May 2025 12:07 pm
Leather jacket lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKtrwwObmxM
Maine Lepen on Wed, 14th May 2025 4:39 pm
You are all going to die. The cohesion elements and calculators guarantee that. You are going to die like fucking dogs.
Stupid pieces of shits with your stupid guns laws. You are all going to die and there is nothing you can do about it.
Je vous l’avez dit de ne pas m’enculer.
Stile lasame on Wed, 14th May 2025 4:52 pm
This is me, I always win as the song says:
You always won every time you placed a bet
You’re still damn good, no one’s gotten to you yet
Every time they were sure they had you caught
You were quicker than they thought
You’d just turn your back and walk
You always said the cards would never do you wrong
The trick you said was never play the game too long
A gambler’s share, the only risk that you would take
The only loss you could forsake
The only bluff you couldn’t fake
And you’re still the same
I caught up with you yesterday (still the same, you’re still the same)
Moving game to game
No one standing in your way
I always win as the song says:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Zu4z7ky_Lo
The cohesion elements and calculators will deliver to me your cadavers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Zu4z7ky_Lo
ulysee jamal on Wed, 14th May 2025 4:57 pm
I never lost, I will get what I want out of earth, your death for daring to insult me with your guns laws. I always win.
alain berthiaume on Wed, 14th May 2025 5:01 pm
Christ de salope sale Britannique a Carney. Je ne suis pas capable de lui regarder la face sans vouloir le décapiter. Christ de pute Britannique de calisse.
alain eline on Wed, 14th May 2025 5:25 pm
I bet nobody saw this one coming as a method of execution: elements of cohesion.
Death by elements of cohesion.
Nobody saw this one coming. I always win.
you should know that by now. You always lose and I always win.
allan poe on Wed, 14th May 2025 5:30 pm
fucking losers.
marcue gender on Wed, 14th May 2025 5:37 pm
You guys never thought that some one would come down on earth with his sole goal of killing everyone on earth. You did not see this one coming also. You never see anything. You are too stupid, you cannot understand and see the futur, you are too mentally retarded for that.
Tavsis marianne on Wed, 14th May 2025 5:43 pm
Fire rips through Tavistock home
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wwwo7S97suk
are you taking about the Tavistock institute located in UK, where the fucking dog of Carney coming from. Message by reflection.
The Tavistock Institute of Human Relations is a British non-profit research and consulting organisation, specialising in the study of group behavior. There are sister organisations in China and Germany.
https://www.tavinstitute.org/contact
The Tavistock Institute of Human Relations
3rd floor, 63 Gee Street
London EC1V 3RS
yellen marcil on Wed, 14th May 2025 5:47 pm
I never lose, you never won against me. Death by cohesion elements.
marue gendrone on Wed, 14th May 2025 6:28 pm
If you are more powerful than me, it should be easy for you to kill me. Why am I still alive? Because you cannot kill me, because I am more powerful than you.
You always lose, I always win, you should know this by now.
martin janue on Wed, 14th May 2025 6:43 pm
You should sign an order to abolish canada firearms laws instead. You are just a fucking low life British coward. Everything you do upset me and make me angry. Just looking at your ugly face make me angry. Crisse de salope Britannique sale. Come and kill me if you can.
PM Carney signs order to prioritize middle-class tax cut | Power Play for Wednesday, May. 13, 2025
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xx6w5G6Jy6w
alain jamal on Wed, 14th May 2025 6:57 pm
Another clone of Candle Jenner. She has a lot of clone out there. set at 1:40 for a front facial profile
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWMSGauYlMk
marcue jamal on Wed, 14th May 2025 7:06 pm
I have a complain to make to my personal doctors in charge of my flesh body update. It is nice to have a vison update, a skin update, What about better legs. You saw me work on my car. It is obvious that I need better legs. Fucking losers.
trembel jewis on Wed, 14th May 2025 7:16 pm
Another fucking thing while I am at it. I am ready to leave earth anytime. Just do your fucking shit and get me out of here. Do I brink me clothing with me . I demand more information about this subject. Do I travel naked in the dimensional channel. We need to figure out all these little details.
Can I travel in and out of earth as I wishes. I have people that I would personal like to décapite myself.
alan laporte on Thu, 15th May 2025 12:33 am
Men at the bottom of the pillar and women on top of the men. Men being crushed to death by the parasitic nature of women. Sexual reproduce has no future because of the parasitic nature of women. Women contribute nothing of value, she always take from other people who produce things of value.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-IdbyNCUTsw
aland departe on Thu, 15th May 2025 12:47 am
Realities based on sexual reproduction always fail. Earth will be no exception to this rule.
Jesue denis on Thu, 15th May 2025 1:02 am
Say what you want about the Arabs, but they seems to understand better then anyone else the parasitic nature of women.
The Whites men are complete lost and went full retard by the worshipping of women.
The Quran is also full of information about the parasitic nature of women.
As always the Whites men have no connections with reality. They live in a fantasy world where women are perfect and deserve adoration. Whites people are basically losers. Everyone knows it.
iline grahe on Thu, 15th May 2025 1:22 am
One of the reason of feminism could well be a way for women to hide their parasitic nature with feminism and victimhood .
It is guarantee that everyone on earth will die, cohesion éléments of earth reality guarantee that. I am just here to collect earth cadavers and watching earth population die. I am not here to rescue you or help earth.
jesue reale on Thu, 15th May 2025 1:37 am
I will assume that is the real video of what we see on the streets and has not been modified. Men seem to have walked away from women and realized that they are just parasites. You can see the parasitic nature of women in the video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YElmorU7YY8
Women won’t stay alive long without the support of men.
Sexual reproduction always fail, I have never seen a exception to this rule.
Jean maria on Thu, 15th May 2025 2:02 am
Men at the bottom of the pillar and women on top of the men. Men being crushed to death by the parasitic nature of women. Sexual reproduce has no future because of the parasitic nature of women. Women contribute nothing of value, she always take from other people who produce things of value. The column on top of women, represent their parasitical load. How much resources they consume as parasites. The men at the Bottom of column represent also a imminant crash of the column or civilization cause by the female parasitical load. I am not sure how I know all of this.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-IdbyNCUTsw
alain marcan on Thu, 15th May 2025 4:11 am
Look like anal between an animal hybrid and a human. I told you that I remember something about a procreation chamber.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/zZiIml48zzI
basmat altaaluq on Thu, 15th May 2025 4:31 am
“Thank you for the helpful article! We at Basmat Al-Talaaq Sofa Cleaning Company truly appreciate the valuable information you shared.”
kalim perinia on Thu, 15th May 2025 4:48 am
In a born in 1967. I believe there is a reason for that, but I am not sure what it is. Video with highly sexual suggestive images.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjwTJsAHkDg
ulsye jamal on Thu, 15th May 2025 5:06 am
I also believe that there is a specific reason why I am born in Québec and not somewhere else. I just don’t know what it is. It is not a coincidence that I am born here in Québec
alan laporete on Thu, 15th May 2025 5:59 am
1970. This is the kind of shit you would see inside a procreation center. This is the light version, there is the heavy version with sperm worshipping and other crap.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS7kNDwyWRo
beryime corone on Thu, 15th May 2025 6:11 am
‘Use It Up And Wear It Out’
What part of you body should I use up and wear out, your vagina, your ass, your mouth. What part of your body I am supposed to abuse for my personal sexual gratification.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11mTYoYNKqM
Sexual reproduction is not working as good as you thought. It will fail, it always fail.
You are fucked, sexual reproduction is not working and it is giving you mediocre results. I could told you that if you just took the time to ask me.
great smother on Thu, 15th May 2025 6:19 am
The Who My Generation Smothers Brothers, 1967
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiSKu7SbGNQ
This kind of smothering you are talking about. Sexual reproduction is not working good for you. You can see your own death because of the failure of sexual reproduction. You are scared don’t you. You fear for you life.
https://xhamster.com/videos/kortneys-big-strong-ass-smothering-muscle-worship-dom-xhe41hz
yellne jean on Thu, 15th May 2025 6:25 am
I have been taking off the grid. You cannot use my energy anymore, I have a protective shield. You must be really upset a the current situation. If you cannot use my energy, how are you going to power your precious sun and stop global cooling. you are fucking scared. you are fucked don’t you.
valeie denis on Thu, 15th May 2025 6:28 am
You don’t have access to my energy, you won’t be able to keep your forest alive, I see trees dying everywhere I go.
You bet everything on sexual reproduction. Fucking loser,
jeuse christ on Thu, 15th May 2025 8:09 am
I got half of the muffler out. I will stop there I will not remove the section attached to the exhaust manifold. It rust really fast. The u clamp bolt were all rusty after just one year of driving. I had to use a big impact gun.
It is really fast entropic degradation reality. I will take public transport and walk instead. I just don’t want to work on car anymore, it unpleasant. Extreme voluntary simplicity is the way to go. People should prepare to die. Cohesion calculator will kill everyone like I said.
Really fast entropic degradation it feels like we in a accelerated time vortex including the entropic degradation speed. Nobody will survive that in such an accelerated time vortex.
ilian Jean on Thu, 15th May 2025 8:17 am
It could also be one explanation why the trees are dying so fast, we have entered an accelerated time vortex. It will kill everything. as time goes backward. Someone need go see what I happening in the forest to see if I am right. I think it way worse the we think.
karine wellen on Thu, 15th May 2025 8:21 am
Nothin will survive such an accelerated backward time vortex.
ulyse rahie on Thu, 15th May 2025 9:17 am
CVT transmission is what killed Nissan. It is the EPA fuel consumption rules that killed Nissan.
It will happen to Honda. 1.5 liter with turbocharger is full of problem.
Nissan annonce le pire bilan annuel de son histoire et des milliers de licenciements • FRANCE 24
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAvcR2mM9Lc
This is one of the reason I will use public transportation. I know how bad and shitty the new cars are.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRfsss9yeAo&t=156s
Go read the comments, you will see what I mean.
james treveller on Thu, 15th May 2025 9:53 am
The bolt connect to the exhaust at too rusty. I canot remove them. I will make a patch and run with only 1/3 of the exhaust system in place. It makes a lost of noise but it cannot be as bad as these old Detroit diesel engine, LOL, some people know what I am talking.
Even with 2/3 of exhaust system missing, it is still more reliable than an Nissan with a CVT.
alain leduc on Thu, 15th May 2025 10:20 am
I made a comment about this around 2022. I said only the people that can fix and patch their cars will drive a cars. Even the rich people will be forced to take public transportation.
We are almost there with the Bankruptcy of Nissan. Honda will also go bankrupt because of their 1.5 liter turbocharge engine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0plCVBImgY
There is plenty of documentation about the 1.5 liter of Honda and its problems.
ulaine macrai on Thu, 15th May 2025 10:51 am
Even politicians will be forces to take public transportation. This is where we will get you and kill you.
alain formale on Thu, 15th May 2025 11:01 am
Nissan CVT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fl3_o6GgGiI
Jean emiral on Thu, 15th May 2025 11:13 am
Having money will not save you. You are really easy targets you are fucking losers. Men like me will start killing, police officier, judges, politicians, women, kids, lawyer, banquer, governmental employs. Men like me will be the only ones what will have access to working vehicle. All the rest of you will take public transportation. We will be able to make our own laws because we own working vehicle.