It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
alain laporte on Sun, 18th May 2025 4:16 pm
Notice that the masts of the boat hit the beam under the bridge. This was a tentative to collapse the bridge but we failed. 1:26 forward. We failed this time to collapse the bridge but we won’t fail next time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DlM7woABBE
You will be punished for what you did and for how much datas will lost because of your incompetence. I should have got the money 2 years ago and Canada firearms should have been abolish 2 years ago also.
alain marcus on Sun, 18th May 2025 5:06 pm
1:40 look at how black the surrounding of his eyes are. He looks like a dead cadaver or zombie. The sucker won’t live old.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6Y0CW2Dx6I
The Brooklyn bridge is just the beginning. We lost too much data because you did not give me money 2 years ago. Punishment will be given to the whole population of earth. Just wait to see what we have in store for all of you.
ulysee erelin on Sun, 18th May 2025 5:25 pm
Because of you incompetence, I discover voluntary simplicity and the plaisir of isolating one self from the rest of the world.
You usually never recover from this and it makes you incapable of rejoining the outside world. I thought you guys understood that. Apparently you are just losers.
ilian wereeig on Sun, 18th May 2025 5:27 pm
if you had give me money 2 year ago, I would probably drive a new cars and never really appreciate voluntary simplicity. My old rusty car made me discover voluntary simplicity. You don’t come back from that. You are on your own, go fuck yourself.
alain matrix on Mon, 19th May 2025 9:06 am
10:00 AM Montréal time, the temperature is 8 degree Celsius. I has to restart the heating.
I told you that there will be a severe price to pay for not giving me money two year ago and abolish Canada firearms laws when I asked. Because of my rust car and the lack of money I could go to Montreal and collect data.
Consequences are coming for your incompetence.
All of Earth will be severely punished for that.
https://www.meteomedia.com/fr/ville/ca/quebec/montreal/actuelle
alain marcus on Mon, 19th May 2025 9:12 am
Just deposit the 400 millions in my bank account. Maybe I will show clemency.
Bernie Denise on Mon, 19th May 2025 9:47 am
Just do what I ask, deposit the 400 millions in my bank account. Maybe I will show clemency.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWGdTpOZscQ
Ilaine regis on Mon, 19th May 2025 10:52 am
I told you that earth will be punished for the datas that we lost because you did not give money 2 years ago.
https://www.meteomedia.com/fr/nouvelles/meteo/previsions/retour-froid-neige-sud-quebec
I told you that I would kill you all because of Canada firearms laws. You know nothing of who I am, you should just obey me, deposit the 400 millions in my bank account. Maybe I will show clemency. Just fucking obey me.
Grliel craone on Mon, 19th May 2025 12:48 pm
Earth is full of these whirlwinds of energy moving in linear travel. I have these whirlwinds of energy crossing my body all the time. People don’t have the appropriate body updates to feel them.
We lost too much precious datas to not seek revenge against earth and it population. Expect more destruction coming for us. I told you to not fuck with me and my weapons. I fucking told you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWGdTpOZscQ
alina jeanine on Mon, 19th May 2025 10:05 pm
fucking worthless pathetic piece of shits not powerful enough to send me so we can collect datas. I am going to die for that. Destruction is coming. I am not working with UK and Europe, you don’t seem to understand that.
Worthless pathetic pieces of shit. Too much incompetent running this operations.
force onemanu on Mon, 19th May 2025 10:11 pm
I am not working with UK and Europe. How many time do I have to repat myself fucking worthless pieces of shit.
Canada, U.K. and France threaten ‘concrete actions’ against Israel, including sanctions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZBK6MAMtio
bertaine janette on Mon, 19th May 2025 11:16 pm
The planet is big, Why are we always talking about the US, Europe and Israel. There are other beautiful nations on earth. It always about these 3 annoying cock suckers: US, Europe and Israel. Brazil is a nice nation also just saying. It is really fucking annoying.
makete jamir on Tue, 20th May 2025 12:39 am
31:48 she is always dressed like a fucking whore. How come YouTube did not take this one down for inappropriate kids content.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtVjmPIjyM0
gerbil ratta on Tue, 20th May 2025 6:25 am
Record-Breaking Cold Persists Across Victoria and South Australia; Chill Engulfs Much of the U.S.; Ontario Shivers; + The Methane Scam
I fucking told you so that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. I told you to remove the laws 2 years ago.
Before we kill all of you, you will be punished for the datas we lost because you were not competent enough to give me money 2 years ago. Watch us destroy the US and Canada. We lost so much datas because I could not buy a new cars and travel around to collect datas. Watch us punish you for that. I also needed money to buy expensive scientific instruments.
uliane Helen on Tue, 20th May 2025 7:00 am
Une autre chose, je veux la salope Britannique a Carney mort. Je veux que ce soit une execution public très sanglante. Fucking British and European pieces of shit skin.
Crisse de salope Britannique sans morale.
retatie iiine on Tue, 20th May 2025 7:22 am
Je veux vois la salope Britannique à Carney saigner ben comme il faut avant qu’il meurt. Une salope Britannique ca ne saigne jamais assez avant de mourir. Faite moi saigner la pute a Carney.
olesa olive on Tue, 20th May 2025 8:16 am
I went outside, it feel like winter. It is definitely a winter wind with no heat in it. People in the North should know what I am talking about.
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth for insulting me with your firearms laws. I told you that you will be punished for the data we lost because you were too incompetent to give me money. Pain is coming.
kaaine fern on Tue, 20th May 2025 8:21 am
I am not going to let losers that have a lower IQ then mine insult me like that.
Yeley Derian on Tue, 20th May 2025 8:32 am
Watch me fucking Canada over for the installation of the British bitch called Carney. Watch me destroy you shit nation. Kill Carney if you want the nation of Canada to stay alive.
martine denis on Tue, 20th May 2025 8:58 am
L’achat de revues magazine érotiques en 1972
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYGon3x6Qls
Jaime laporte on Tue, 20th May 2025 10:05 am
Je veux pas voir les Europeans icitte incluant les Français de France, les Allemands, les Britanniques, etc. Les ostie d’Europeans sales restent dans leur ostie d’Europe sale.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBSS-R2dNL4
treime redile on Tue, 20th May 2025 10:33 am
I told you that I would kill Canada as a nation for daring to insult me. I fucking told you so.
Cool May week kicked off with a frost advisory
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOXERLCoK2c
I fucking told you to kill the fucking British bitch named Carney. make sure he bleeds a lot. I also told you to abolish Canada firearms laws 2 year ago. I fucking told you, don’t come to me and cry. I also funking told you how much I hate Europeans and I don’t see them here on our land, Trustvme you want nothing to do with the Europeans.
erelin nadine on Tue, 20th May 2025 11:11 am
Charles Kushner, father of Trump’s son-in-law, confirmed as US ambassador to France
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5a0qogPwXE
You think you will manipulate me like that easily. This is what you really think of me. You think I don’t see your fucking manipulations to extract information from me.
Come to my house and dare to ask me for my help to see what kind of answer you will get.
Elaine nadie14 on Tue, 20th May 2025 11:12 am
Come to my house and dare come to talk with me directly. come fucking cock sucker.
yeline selena on Tue, 20th May 2025 11:35 am
Come to my house and ask for my help. I dare you to do it. Come
jeriahe babe on Tue, 20th May 2025 11:36 am
Make no illusions, I know you have been manipulating me since my birth. Come to my house and dare to ask for my help. I dare to come.
Yelena porlant on Tue, 20th May 2025 11:39 am
I fucking dare to come and ask for my help. I fucking dare you to do it.
lacrose metria on Tue, 20th May 2025 12:36 pm
Ostie de crisse de salope Britannique. Ca c’est comme du Juif, il faut tous les tuer un par un.
Quand tu tues ca une salope Britannique, tu t’arrange pour qu’elle saigne longtemps avant de mourir. Plus il saigne plus c’est le fun. Pareil avec les salope Europeans. Crisse de salope Européennes manipulatives. Ca aussi il faut que ca saigne longtemps avant de mourir.
Pourquoi pensez-vous que les Europeans vive dans le nord, parce que tout le monde les déteste. Pourquoi pensez-vous qu’il se sont retrouvés la.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHAIqFRf1D0
Heline fernale1 on Tue, 20th May 2025 1:31 pm
I want to know what I see in my head. Me and my boy took over Canadian parlement and kill almost everyone. Carney is attached to a wall with a couple of fingers broken. I took an utility knife and make a cut somewhere on his body.
I am watching him bleed while he is suffering. While he is dying I am eating salt&vinegar chip and drinking coke.
Each 15 minute a I make a new cut on him with my utility knife. I am sitting in front of him and I watching him suffer.
I take a young women that we did not kill, and rape her and forcing her to watch at Carney suffer.
karime latita on Tue, 20th May 2025 1:50 pm
It is not because I have a high IQ that it means that I am pacifist. I guess you did not see this one coming, a genius that loving watching people suffer before they die and love raping women in front of dead cadavers.
You never saw this one coming stupid incompetent pieces of shit.
You never saw this one coming fucking losers. What if I can change earth reality by just imagining futur scenarios in my head. You never saw this one coming fucking losers.
Jeleine celine on Tue, 20th May 2025 2:05 pm
Crisse de salopes Britanniques et Européennes sales. Mes ostie de câlisse d’Europeans sales de tabernacle. j’aime capable de rester en Europe pis de fermer vos crisse de bouches sales. Mes ostie de christ de tabernacle.s
perlane zelande on Tue, 20th May 2025 2:12 pm
Les Osties Europeans sale envoyaient des prêtes catholiques pour dire au famille de faire plus d’enfants quand ils n’étaienet même capable d’en nourrir un proprement. Mon père m’en a souvent parle de ça. Les osties d’Europeans devrait rester dans leur crisse de pays de merde et apprendre a fermer leur bouche.
Nadie heline on Tue, 20th May 2025 2:31 pm
If I have leverage that I can use against Jews, Israel, UK and Europe I will use it. I will destroy these nations and Jews.
jamil greame on Tue, 20th May 2025 3:21 pm
I piss and shit of the French from France. I piss and shit on all the Europeans.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfpiNfIamg8
nadie xenon on Tue, 20th May 2025 3:22 pm
I piss and shit on all the French from France. I piss and shit on all the Europeans.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfpiNfIamg8
alain laporete on Tue, 20th May 2025 4:19 pm
Sunday looks like she is wearing a strapon harness with the dick between her legs.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/HN8WWJpfyW4
0:00 in the video
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/wife-pegs-her-man-9380092
uline marcel on Tue, 20th May 2025 4:26 pm
The flower in her right hand has the same shape as a butt plug.
wellen heline1 on Tue, 20th May 2025 4:52 pm
I don’t want to see him here. I warned and I told you. Je veux pas void la salope icitte.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNL95x6btfY
There might be punishment for him coming here.
I dare you to come to my house and ask for my help.
Betrain Jeanette on Tue, 20th May 2025 5:17 pm
I dare you to come to my house and ask for my help. I dare you to do it. If you think I will ruin my life for you, you are mistaken. Come to my house and ask me for my help,
keaine lemonae on Tue, 20th May 2025 5:28 pm
I am going to fuck you over the same way you fucked me over. You will need someone to do the ground work for you here on earth since you cannot be here. This is where I will fuck you over.
I dare you to come and ask for my help. Just come if you dare. You feel you are in control now, do you. Let’s fucking whore.
martin laporte on Tue, 20th May 2025 6:07 pm
I am going to fuck you over really good, the same way you did to me. You need someone to do the ground work for you. You need someone to go interview the EPA high level administrators and so on.
This is where I will fuck you over real good.
I dare you to come and ask for my help. I will tell you to go fuck yourself. You did not see this one coming. All this operation will failed.
letid zero on Tue, 20th May 2025 6:19 pm
All this operation will fail. I can see it in my head. You should have gave me money when I asked for it. I can see some part of the future, sometime. All of this will fail because you are all incompetent losers. I already all the cadavers on the ground.
verison telegrap on Tue, 20th May 2025 6:36 pm
Without me this operation will fail. Come to my house and dare to ask for my help. You are all already dead.
sprunki phase 3 on Tue, 20th May 2025 8:51 pm
Sprunki Phase 3 takes you on a whimsical journey through enchanted lands where each step reveals new secrets, and every decision shapes the fate of your adventure.
bell on Mon, 26th May 2025 5:59 am
Interesting perspective on energy topics. Reminds me how https://minmail.app/ can be useful for quick research.
kupiti vozačku dozvolu on Thu, 29th May 2025 8:32 am
Kupite legal vozačku dozvolu i registrujte se na našoj veb stranici bez polaganja bilo kakvog ispita ili polaganja praktičnog testa. sve što nam je potrebno su vaši podaci i oni će biti zabeleženi u sistemu u narednih osam dana. Vozačka dozvola mora proći isti postupak registracije kao i dozvola izdata u auto-školama
https://kupitivozackudozvola.com/
koupit řidičský průkaz on Thu, 29th May 2025 8:33 am
skutečný řidičský průkaz a registrovaní na našich webových stránkách, aniž byste museli skládat jakoukoli zkoušku nebo absolvovat praktický test. vše, co potřebujeme, jsou vaše údaje a během příštích osmi dnů budou zaznamenány v systému. Řidičský průkaz musí projít stejným registračním řízením jako průkaz vydávaný v autoškolách,
https://koupitridicskypreukaz.com/
osta juhiluba on Thu, 29th May 2025 8:33 am
Hankige tõeline juhiluba ja registreeruge meie veebisaidil ilma eksamit või praktilist testi tegemata. vajame ainult teie teavet ja see salvestatakse süsteemi järgmise kaheksa päeva jooksul. Juhiluba peab läbima sama registreerimise protsessi, mis autokoolis väljaantud juhiluba.
https://ostajuhiluba.com/
kjop forerkort on Thu, 29th May 2025 8:34 am
Kjøp ekte og registrert førerkort fra nettsiden vår uten å skrive eksamen eller ta praksisprøven. alt vi trenger er opplysningene dine, og de vil bli registrert i systemet innen de neste åtte dagene. kjøp førerkort belgia, kjøp førerkort belgia, kjøp førerkort i nederland, førerkort b belgia, kjøp førerkort med registrering.
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Jamald latruite on Tue, 3rd Jun 2025 5:12 pm
Perfect. Great balance between the low and high frequencies. The drum does not sound electrical. It comes from another dimension, people on earth are too mediocre to create something like that. You listen with ear plug and with an equalized you boost to max 100 hz and 10K Hz frequencies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z71ypkXc9KQ