It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Alain Jamal on Mon, 12th May 2025 10:45 pm
0:22 Asian race mixed with negro. Negro nose and lips.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jo7_qwz5WgE
alain maximu on Tue, 13th May 2025 1:19 am
I keep gaining weight and I am getting bigger and bigger. It seems like it will never stop. I am going to become some kind of giant if this shit does not stop. I am not sure why I am writing this. I thought ageing was making you lose weight, not gaining weight.
I have to make my own clothing because I am too big.
Jean marine on Tue, 13th May 2025 1:33 am
I had bones pain today. It remind me of the same bone pain I had when I was 11 year and I was growing to become taller. I hope it will stop somewhere.
jean marcile on Tue, 13th May 2025 2:16 am
what if as I get bigger I absorb more energy and I deplete earth of the energy needed to keep it alive: heat sun, magnetic field, electrical field.
I absorbe earth energy field there I am killing earth energy field and destroying earth and every living thing on it.
I told that I would kill everyone living on earth. I fucking told you so to not fuck with me. Fucking useless Canada firearms laws and Québec firearms registry.
M’a tous vous enculer ben solide.
ulsye gradhe on Tue, 13th May 2025 2:19 am
Nobody takes my weapons away from me and live to brag about it Nobody has ever done that to me and it will never happen again after I destroy earth.
Je vais tous vous enculer ben solide.
alain marcotte on Tue, 13th May 2025 2:24 am
I killed a lot of Fucking Jews like Mayer in the past. You should have seen what I have done to them. I ran crusade against them in the past.
Bill Maher rips liberals over anti-Israel agenda
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_w6G8PWoS8A
alian saudi on Tue, 13th May 2025 2:49 am
My father saw it right away. That was a big joke in his house. He said they are wearing: linge a essuyer la vaisselle sur leur têtes.
https://th.bing.com/th/id/OIP.mZHPdERJgNpNAbNDClIZSAHaHa?rs=1&pid=ImgDetMain
My father knew this world was faked.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhtivAm42S0
Jesus marcha on Tue, 13th May 2025 3:28 am
I can see the meeting here. What kind of hat are we going to put on Saudi heads. Any idea anyone.
OK we are in a rush let’s put a linge a essuyer la vaisselle as Saudi head cover. Everybody agrees, yes boss it is a good idea.
Ok what kind of color should we use. White and red will be perfect. What about yellow and white, no let’s go with White and red.
I can see the fucking meeting from here.
https://th.bing.com/th/id/OIP.mZHPdERJgNpNAbNDClIZSAHaHa?rs=1&pid=ImgDetMain
Softly Pornaly on Tue, 13th May 2025 4:17 am
9:06 anal sex position.
9:12 anal sex position with the butt check open
Nobody says anything about the softcore porn on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ayo_5Bhh5BM
alan lemire on Tue, 13th May 2025 4:26 am
Typical Sexual dominatrix clothing. Nobody anywhere dare to say anything about how YouTube is full of softcore porn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lV_4CMw3mSg
alain pebora on Tue, 13th May 2025 4:30 am
2:30 cannot be more obvious then that with the arrow pointing toward her vagina.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lV_4CMw3mSg
Ismal maladie on Tue, 13th May 2025 4:36 am
This shit is fucking funny. Right there into your face at 5:38, I cannot stop laughing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lV_4CMw3mSg
alain Jean on Tue, 13th May 2025 4:50 am
Ostie que c’est drole at 1:56. Directement pris des films porno.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0IPjWGY92c
alain maricle on Tue, 13th May 2025 5:00 am
I call this, trying to insert yourself into the circle of power by sucking up to Trump and MSB. These are losers trying to move the circle of power and have access to the privileges that come with it: money, women, power, control over other people.
I understand exactly what kind of personality these people that are tying to insert themself into the circle of power have. I can see them coming a mile away. I have no respect for these kind of people. I see them as losers. They have a different programming map than the regular people. you cannot trust these people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZY9_jk6RPx4
Alain delon on Tue, 13th May 2025 5:27 am
These people serve the structure of power and they are there to keep the structure of power in place. They are not your friends. They have a programing code completely different. They see everything in term of power and relation of power among the people at the top of the circle of power. They are really dangerous people.
alain depus on Tue, 13th May 2025 5:32 am
They are the guardians of the structure of power. They never serve the people or the King, only themself and the structure of power. Some of them will kill you if you try to dismantle the structure of power. You have to see their programming map, it is freighting.
This is why it is really difficult to install a new structure of power. Because these people have been send to protect and keep the structure of power alive.
Jean marcile on Tue, 13th May 2025 5:36 am
These are the same people that are protecting YouTube against accusation of publishing softcore porn. You see what I mean. Protecting the structure of power in that case YouTube.
jamel Yellen on Tue, 13th May 2025 5:55 am
I will explain their programming map. For example an electrician will see everything in term of voltage, current, wire size. This is his programmation map.
These people have a programming code that sees everything in term of power: they know who spoke with who and what has been said so they can determine ahead ahead of time if the structure of power of being attacked. They pass their day collecting information to see if the structure of power is being attacked. It is scary when you see their programming map. you have to kill at lot of people if you want to permanently demolish a structure of power. It is female structure of power.
Jamal lamine on Tue, 13th May 2025 6:42 am
Carney and his cabinets are on top of my hatred list. Suicide by war they will be the first one to die in Canada.
you look at Carney and you say to him, I came to pick up my salary, you kill him, put him on a table and dismember him with an axe.
Fucking British garbage trash.
olivia newton on Tue, 13th May 2025 7:00 am
M’a mettre toute la planète en feu juste au cause de la chienne a Carney. M’a tous vous tuer juste a cause de la crisse de chienne Britannique a Carney.
Crisse de salope sale Britannique de câlisse.
ulyse jamal on Tue, 13th May 2025 7:14 am
I could be working on new mathematical concepts. Instead I am stuck here with fucking losers and ugly women. I will burn down this fucking earth. Crisse de salope a Carney.
La crisse de chienne Britannique.
regis labeaue on Tue, 13th May 2025 7:33 am
Osite que c’est drôle. Madame Kardaschiant come dans chiant come dans chier at 0:33.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxkKHB9GWJE
jerime maloche on Tue, 13th May 2025 7:56 am
Il faut accenteur le i chiiant. Madame Kardaschiiiant come dans chiant come dans chier at 0:33.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxkKHB9GWJE
Jean marie on Tue, 13th May 2025 9:09 am
The exhaust on my car is rusted where the flange connect to the exhaust manifold. I will use public transportation. I am not interested to work on car anymore. They rust too fast. I think there is too much copper in recycle steel and it make it rust fast. Just after one yar the rubber pas were already dry. It is going to be a fast collapse. The best natural ressources where exploited first, we are left with the scarp, low quality rubber, recycle steel with too much unwanted elemments.
Jeand marville on Tue, 13th May 2025 9:11 am
The quality of steel and rubber is really low. Really fast entropic degradation speed. I give it 20 year before everyone on earth is dead. It could be even faster then that.
Marcille jean on Tue, 13th May 2025 9:20 am
You have to see it to believe and even then. The fucking flakes of rusted steel turning into dust in your hands. Earth is a fucking abomination.
Jesud marked on Tue, 13th May 2025 9:21 am
Money is not going to save your ass when the steel and rubber are such of low quality.
Jocely maie on Tue, 13th May 2025 9:40 am
La crisse de salope Britannique a Carney ne vas pas vous sauvez d’une morte certaine. Je parie que la salope va faire un bon show.
obame heline on Tue, 13th May 2025 9:52 am
Vous pensez vraiment que cette grosse salope britannique la va vous sauvez de la mort quand le caoutchouc dure a peine un an. Vous pensez vraiment que l’argent et faire parti du pouvoir va sauver votre vie minable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTF3hEwLEu4
Rega4dex moi la grosse salope Britannique, on n’a just envie de lui couper la tête quand on le regarde. Ca me fait piquer des crise de rage quand je lui vois la face.
treama jeanline on Tue, 13th May 2025 9:56 am
Vous pensez que vous êtes chanceux parce que vous allez mourir les derniers au lieu de mourir les premiers.
Qui meurent en premier meurent le mieux
ilina marcile on Tue, 13th May 2025 11:14 am
I looked at it a little bit more. I have looked at the flange on the exhaust manifold. The bolts have shrink some much in size because of the rust that there is almost nothing left to hold the exhaust. The access is difficult and need to be done by underneath the car. It is too rusted and I will most likely break the bolt while trying to remove it. I will scrap the car. I was getting fed up of working on cars anyway.
So I will move to extreme voluntary simplicity. I have been preparing myself to this for the last year. I knew it was coming. I will adapt now the the contraction caused by depletion natural resources now. Better to adapt earlier than later.
Money is not going to save your ass.
alain laplnate on Tue, 13th May 2025 12:11 pm
No I am not jacking the car 21 inch in the air like last time just to fuck around and break bolt in the exhaust flange.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPaoThZFG_0
I have the same jack car, but with the Canadian Tire logo. this car jack weight around 80 libs.
https://www.canadiantire.ca/fr/pdp/cric-de-levage-a-profil-bas-pour-usage-courant-motomaster-3-tonnes-0090239p.html?rq=car+jack
You need a certain musculaire mass to handle this jack.
alain maine on Tue, 13th May 2025 12:21 pm
She forgot to tell you that you must put the rear parking break on and put something behind the rear wheel so the car does not roll backward and push the jack brutally toward you. It is full of losers on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPaoThZFG_0
alain jamal on Tue, 13th May 2025 7:56 pm
They talk a lot about smart cities, but they don’t know how they will keep the international supply chain alive. They never talk about how they will keep manufacturing alive without shuting down the trucking industry. They never talk about trucking industries and what they will do with it. Typical intellectual living in their own bubble with no real live experience. They also have no ideas how to bring back some kind of manufacturing near by their beloved smart cities. They are fucking losers. These people don’t have to produce real life mesurable results to earn a living, they just know how to BS than the average man.
They are fucking losers.
obam lsoer on Tue, 13th May 2025 8:07 pm
Go read their academic papers on smart cities. They hope that someone else will come up with the solutions to keep the international supply chain alive. They have no solutions to anything. They hope that somebody else will fix these problems for them. After that they are going to take credit for other people work and pretend that they are the ones that saved us.
Their academic papers are full of graphs and charts that provide no real valuable informations. I know these types, they are fucking losers.
I am waiting for your solutions, you are the ones pretending to be the experts, so provide the solutions, don’t ask other people to do it for you. Fucking losers
alain marcie on Tue, 13th May 2025 8:13 pm
Fucking losers. No real solution to anything.
https://www.zero.cam.ac.uk/who-we-are/blog/articles/cambridge-joins-international-universities-climate-alliance
alain marcotte on Tue, 13th May 2025 8:20 pm
La grosse salope Britannique a Carney. Je ne peux lui sentir la face. chaque fois que je vois sa face, j’ai envie de le décapiter. Fucking worthless British losers. This is UK Cambridge university, I want nothing to do with the fucking British and Europeans.
https://www.zero.cam.ac.uk/who-we-are/blog/articles/cambridge-joins-international-universities-climate-alliance
Marc grenaille on Tue, 13th May 2025 8:34 pm
I will see tomorrow if I can jack the car using the rear axe middle point as a jacking point. This will make my life easier, safer and faster. I am just curious to see how bad it is underneath.
Ulys Maria on Tue, 13th May 2025 10:12 pm
EPA Start-Stop Systems in Cars exists to decrease the life span of an engine. Probably the turbocharger bearing that are susceptible to overheating.
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2023,f-150,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3451418,engine,turbocharger,5764
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2023,expedition,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3451414,engine,turbocharger,5764
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/honda,2021,accord,1.5l+l4+turbocharged,3447163,engine,turbocharger,5764
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/gmc,2023,terrain,1.5l+l4+turbocharged,3451111,engine,turbocharger,5764
jesue laplua on Tue, 13th May 2025 10:15 pm
Here it is, turbocharger cooling system
https://www.garrettmotion.com/racing-and-performance/choosing-a-turbocharger/water-cooling-for-your-turbo/#:~:text=The%20Garrett%20engineers%20are%20asked%20many%20such
urelin matrix on Wed, 14th May 2025 2:09 am
It was on my main YouTube page. I did not go and look for it. Typical female sexual dominatrix clothing with a strip pointing toward the vagina. She is just missing a strap on. Also perfect clothing for sexual edging of a male slave. The goal is to delay the ejaculation and build up higher sexual desire. The goal is to get a more power ejaculation. It feels like a bullet of sperm is leaving your urethrae at high speed. Real powerful ejaculation that goes really deep inside a women. This is done by sexual edging. I am not sure why I am writing all of this. Only certain women are skill enough to achieve that kind of edging. Only available inside the sexual realm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sM97T-cHa24
mazike jean on Wed, 14th May 2025 2:20 am
We are talking about different women that are not available to earth population. We are talking about women that have a much more complete and sophisticated sexual map and a better comprehension of sex and procreation. It is not available to the regular men of earth.
jalitia Katrm on Wed, 14th May 2025 2:34 am
Sexual. This is coming straight out of the sexual realm. It is not available to men on earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQJx5Ol1JuI
marquie laporte on Wed, 14th May 2025 5:06 am
POURQUOI les moteurs modernes sont-ils si peu fiables ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcO-JQ3mhg4
ulide marco on Wed, 14th May 2025 5:11 am
Money is not going to save you. Nothing will save you. Earth is short life span reality because it is based on conservation mass principle.
Who die first, die best.
alain marionnete on Wed, 14th May 2025 5:18 am
I don’t feel like jacking the car 22 inches up in the air, but I have nothing else do. I will do it anyway out of curiosity to see what kind of datas I can gather about entropic degradation speed.
reginal wellen on Wed, 14th May 2025 5:51 am
Pauvre petites salope Britannique a Carney. Tu est deja mort salope, crisse de salope britannique de câlisee.
martin jean on Wed, 14th May 2025 5:59 am
I am talking to you piece of shit Carney. You cannot beat the principle of conservation of mass. It is a cohesion calculator that cannot be disabled of modified.
Tu vas mourir ma crisse de chienne Britannique sale. Osite de salope Britannique de calisse.
Calculator of cohesion that cannot be modified or disable:
conservation of masse
electrical
thermal exchange
fluid dynamics
chemistry table and calculator
volumétrique interference calculator
conséquence rules and interaction rules
Cohesion calculators remember that if you have to design a reality. Reality design 101.
I piss on your Carney. I shit on your face. Je t’encule ma crisse de salope sale a Carney
Osite de chienne sale britannique de caliss
Neman Joe on Wed, 14th May 2025 6:04 am
Tout le monde sur terre va mourir. Vous allez tous mourir mes crisses de merde sale.
Calculators of cohesion the killer the of reality.
J’enculer tous les Juifs, les Europeans and les Britannique. Je vous encule tous mes tabernacle. Regarde moi bien encule la salope sale Britannique a Carney.
Aussitôt que je lui vois la face, j’ai envie de le décapiter. Christ de salope Britannique de câ;isse.
matrix ulyse on Wed, 14th May 2025 6:07 am
Kendall Jenner agree with me. It is time to décapite Carney. La bitch agree with me.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/S0WdhaRv1Pw