It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Selena marill on Sun, 11th May 2025 3:53 am
The reason as to why we have not destroyed earth already is because the chosen ones are still trap inside a flesh body. As soon as their transformation are done, we will kill everyone and destroy earth.
It is that fucking simple.
alain demarer on Sun, 11th May 2025 5:05 am
What comes to my mind: procreation facilities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajU-OJ7QN8c
Isabelle suce on Sun, 11th May 2025 5:20 am
A fucking window to look into the shower from your bed. See at 16:23. Give me a fucking break. Procreation unit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SFQQlSeXCk
marcil jean on Sun, 11th May 2025 5:44 am
I hate this fucking planet. I don’t belong here. A man of my IQ does not belong here, I belong into the domain of creators.
Count how many girls with a 12 year old teenager body type and the face of a 20 year old women.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4yzHAESPt0
jean marine on Sun, 11th May 2025 9:12 am
How does it feel to know I will never come to help earth and its inhabitants?
It feels exactly like you taking my firearms away from me.
How do you like this, fucking loser with no courage. You like when I do the same to you that you did to me.
Hod does it feel.
You still think that Carney the British bitch was a good choice.
I am going to have to much fun Fucking with you, that same way you fucked with me
Uluse maritime on Sun, 11th May 2025 9:17 am
Are you still proud of yourself with the creation of Canada firearms laws?
I bet you found a way to convince yourself that it was a good decision.
You still like Carney. I bet you are proud of this one. You were able to bring a British spy in.
I bet you are proud of this one also.
Olessia jasmine on Sun, 11th May 2025 9:23 am
Crisse de salope Britannique sale. Faire rentrer un espion Britannique. Je n’arrête pas de le dire, vous êtes juste des caves exactment comme le reste.
Marine lapierre on Sun, 11th May 2025 9:34 am
Osite que je vais vous enculer ben solide, toute la gang.
Jaime Presley on Sun, 11th May 2025 9:56 am
I told you that we can kill every one on earth and repopulate earth using repopulations hubs: mainly Brazil and South East Asian.
I fucking told you so. Fucking low IQ losers.
alain jamel on Sun, 11th May 2025 10:39 am
I hate all of you, including the invisible beings. all of you. There can be no meeting between us, you were not there for the first one. You think I will let you make fun of me another time.
Ttreame Lismal on Sun, 11th May 2025 11:00 am
I am talking to the invisibles beings. The ones behind COVID. You are just fucking low IQ losers. As times goes on, it is becoming obvious to me that you are just pathetic worthless losers. Could even not send me money so I go buy a pick truck and go see by myself what is happing in the forest. Do you know how much data we are losing because of your behavior and lack of intelligence.
You are just fucking losers and you will die also like the rest of the humans on earth.
Yaman Lapote on Sun, 11th May 2025 11:08 am
On va tous vous tuez mes crisses de tabernacle, incluant les êtres invisible. On va tous vous électrocuter en utilisant the champ électrique.
Mes crisses de trou du cul sales de tabernacles.
jean marine on Sun, 11th May 2025 11:37 am
We are going to fry the whole fucking planet by jacking up the electrical field so high that this will set the earth in fire.
You fucking worthless stupid pieces of shit. I am talking about the invisible world here that is coming with this kind of BS below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITHhvGTlk_A
Alain Jerima on Sun, 11th May 2025 12:25 pm
They made a movie where they make fun of food critics like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSRuo2D8wfU
It is with Anya Taylor joy and it is called the menu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_uTkUGcHv4
You can tell that these invisible beings have no respect for earth population and considered earth inhabitants heavily mentally retarded and not worthy of being kept alive.
arline bertran on Sun, 11th May 2025 12:34 pm
I am really surprised that people dont see what it is happening. See my comment above. It is so fucking obvious right in your face kind of obvious.
But then everyone on earth is heavily mentally retarded, it is normal that people don’t see what is currently happening. They are even not hiding it, it is right there in front of your fucking face for the whole world to see.
They have complet hatred for earth and its population. Apparently I am the only one that can see it.
As soon as the chosen ones have been extracted, earth will be destroyed. It is just that the transition for a flesh body to an hybrid type of flesh body takes a long time.
Karin fortuna on Sun, 11th May 2025 12:40 pm
Making fun of Obama and the food critics TV show. Earth food is uneatable, no matter with kind of spices you put on it, it is still tasting like shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efG56KcQj0Q
They made a movie where they make fun of food critics.It is with Anya Taylor joy and it is called the menu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_uTkUGcHv4
You can tell that these invisible beings have no respect for earth population and considered earth inhabitants heavily mentally retarded and not worthy of being kept alive.
karine mealy on Sun, 11th May 2025 12:46 pm
They also have YouTube videos where the make fun of plastic and engine parts made of plastic.
We share the same opinion about earth, it is a fucking abomination and should have never been created in the first place.
karine marina on Sun, 11th May 2025 12:59 pm
They are not impressed with earth written languages. They find there are too many rules and it is an inefficient way of transmitting information. I agree with them on this also. French is a nightmare. There are too many verb tense in English.
Earth is a fucking abomination in a direction someone dare to look at.
Karine martine on Sun, 11th May 2025 1:45 pm
I hate these fucking cocker sucker and their manipulatives tricks. Notice in old movie such as war movies, they always present the leadership as being well dressed, competent, knowledgeable, handle well any situation under intenses stresses. I call this manipulation by reflection.
Where is the reflection pointing to: politicians, military high command, governmental officials, news agencies and so on. It is a way to make you believe that people in positon of power are competent, knowledgeable, logical, handle stresses well and so on.
Manipulation by reflection I call that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5jXUhdMygs
Lelao Jonas on Sun, 11th May 2025 1:51 pm
16:59 is called obedience training and group conformity behavioral training. They are all sit and looking right in front of them like obedient slaves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlUWk1Ql6qo
I understand how they think.
Alain Legendre on Sun, 11th May 2025 1:59 pm
Look at my comment above
The Tactician’s Code | English Full Movie
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGUkVLA-dpw
In a world torn by war, one military strategist rises to prominence, gaining admiration for his tactical brilliance and unyielding resolve. The film delves into his complex journey, where loyalty, honor, and ambition collide in the face of overwhelming odds. As the tides of conflict shift, the man must navigate both his personal convictions and the harsh demands of his duty. Prepare to witness a gripping tale of power, resilience, and the heavy price of war, as the film unfolds a story of a man whose choices will echo through history.
Jean malrcil on Sun, 11th May 2025 2:05 pm
WWI and WWII were both big psychological manipulative operation made to change people behavior and internal psychology. Mainly directed toward Whited people. Everything about it, is psychological manipulation, if you understand what you are looking at. They must be really afraid of Whites people like me.
aldine marine on Sun, 11th May 2025 2:20 pm
My feeling is that we are going to run out of copper before we run out of oil. No copper no electrical motor no manufacturing. I even stored in my house copper tubing for water and other copper parts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPpSny8fyeY
alain deputte on Sun, 11th May 2025 8:32 pm
This is exactly what I had in mind when I was talking about light infantry helicopter. This is actually perfect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-E8ndHQVVE
Isabelle sucegrain on Sun, 11th May 2025 8:39 pm
If you have limited resources to maintain and operate an helicopter fleet, the Blackhawk is the way to go.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-E8ndHQVVE
alin demure on Mon, 12th May 2025 12:53 am
They sure don’t lack imagination is Thailand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnRatIqAHMk
alain sumbimt on Mon, 12th May 2025 1:03 am
Obedience training and psychological humiliation (showing your ass like to the person behind you is a form of group humiliation). It is a position submission psychologic made to breaking your spirit of freedom and force you to conform into group approved behavior. You are force to lay down on the ground to verify that you are still a submissive slave.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/unPRej0LGWE
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/R9pXxOTmb5M
Jamal Pretokia on Mon, 12th May 2025 1:14 am
They gave more freedom to White people in general and less freedom to Asians and Arabs. Earth is a big psychological experiment where they study human behaviors under various different psychological scenarios. See comment above and comments about Pattaya.
Alain Jemire on Mon, 12th May 2025 4:56 am
Thais women are more sexual than most Asia women. Thailand was westernized first compare to other South East Nation. Thais women seems to have a different sexual programming compare to other South East Asian women. Thailand the prefect emergency procreation hub if everything goes to shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQGe8svJDVA
marivle james on Mon, 12th May 2025 5:03 am
There is only two locations on earth that could be used as emergency procreation hubs if the whole world turns into shit: Thailand, Brazil.
I consider the West dead inside and hopeless. I consider Canada, Europe, UK, Israel and US as dead nations inside without any future..
alain marine on Mon, 12th May 2025 5:18 am
Canada can create all restrictive gun laws it wants, but Canada cannot force me to participate voluntary into the survival and continuation of Canada. It is already a dead nations anyways.
Canada really fuck itself over with their firearms laws.
Yellen marcil on Mon, 12th May 2025 5:29 am
The US the nations that worship death and pain and it is proud of it. You still love your fucking Jews.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8t9x_y3vFic
Only in Hollywood movie you see something like this. You still love your fucking Jews. You still think that the Jews are your friends.
lamie abmila on Mon, 12th May 2025 5:36 am
Earth is a fucking abomination and should have never been created. Once the chosen ones are protected, we kill everyone living on earth.
Ulyse Marinae on Mon, 12th May 2025 5:47 am
I told that we will kill everyone on earth except the chosen ones.
Snow And Record May Lows Hit Europe; No May Trend; -100F Returns To Antarctica; + Earth’s Albedo Drop Behind Recent Warming?
I had -1.32 degrees Celsius 2 nights ago. Colling is definitively happing fast.
Heline Jaime on Mon, 12th May 2025 6:44 am
It is pretty obvious that if you look at Pattaya and Brazil to a lesser extend that these nations could be used as emergency repopulation node.
It is also pretty obvious the the West has been abandoned by what I would call invisible world or beings. Only Whites people still think that they matter and are important. Everyone knows that Whites people are losers.
alain leduc on Mon, 12th May 2025 1:24 pm
crisse de salope Québécoise a Legault. Tu vas mourir comme tout le monde ma crisse de grosse merde. Ton osite de Québec sale a merde.
14 h 30 HE : Point de presse du premier ministre du Québec François Legault à Nicolet
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwsLzko-YnA
Ma crisse de grosse salope avec ton registre des armes a feu. Mon crisse de tabernacle.
Vous allez tous mourir mes crisse de chiens sales, tous les Québécois vont mourir comme les crisses de merde sales qu’ils sont.
yanick laplante on Mon, 12th May 2025 1:44 pm
Ton ostie de Québec sale avec 6 mois d’hiver tu peux te le crisser dans le cul. Ce n’est pas une place pour des humains. Crisse de Québec sale a merde plein de perdant.
Earth a fucking abomination that deserve death.
Ma crisse de grosse chienne sale a Legault.
alain marcil on Mon, 12th May 2025 1:58 pm
This is how I remember it. It is probably not accurate but it is what it is.
Generally the command of the army is offered to you to do what every you want with it. It this case that would the US and Canadian army. You either accept or refuse it.
This is how I remember it.
You will die like every else Legault. Same with Carney. Fucking Britannic garbage of Carney.
I could speak a long time about this. Crisse de salope a Legault et Carney.
Maie hetrena on Mon, 12th May 2025 2:13 pm
On vas t’arranger ben solide ma crisse de salope Britannique a Carney. Typique des Britannique d’envoyer un espion a l’interne comme Carney. Toi pis ton ostie de cabinet ton minables. Mes ostie de tabernacle de chiens sales.
Alain Marine on Mon, 12th May 2025 2:35 pm
Intentional suicide by war. Do you know what it is? It is when men decide to form a army and kill everybody around them in a hope that somebody stronger will come and kill you.
Suicide by destruction. Have you seen something like that moving through a nation and destroying everything in its path.
I can tell that some of you have never been reincarnated before just by the way you talk and behave. I can tell some of you are soulless and have a limited life experience.
jaime preslye on Mon, 12th May 2025 2:47 pm
When someone come to give you the command of an army, the first question you ask, is: is this a suicide by war. After that you have a better idea on how to play the game of war.
I can easily tell that someone of you are just fucking soulless losers that have never reincarnated before. I can see it by your body language.
Fucking worthless losers.
alain marcille on Mon, 12th May 2025 3:51 pm
Crisse de salope Britannique a Carney. Toujours pareil avec les crisses de Britanniques sales. Tu es capable de les voir venir 10 miles a la ronde. Toujours les même techniques.
Jean Marin on Mon, 12th May 2025 4:42 pm
Demain ils vont nous pousser pendant 2 heures la salope Britannique a Carney dans la face. Deux heures avec sa crisse de face a la télé.
Crisse de salope Britannique sale.
Jean lepanne on Mon, 12th May 2025 6:55 pm
Suicide by war or exiting life (dying) by causing the most possible destruction using suicide by war. The most pleasant army and soldiers to command. You make a list of people you hate and you go kill them. You establish tactical objectify on the basis of how much hatred you have. One of the best way to die.
You did not have a full life if you have not die by hatred.
Yellen Jaime on Mon, 12th May 2025 7:04 pm
Grosse crisse de salope Britannique sale a Carney.
Jea lemire on Mon, 12th May 2025 7:42 pm
You are young and without hope, I have something to propose to you, suicide by war, do you want to join my army. I can guarantee your death in the next 5 years. I can also guarantee that you will be able to kill anyone you want and rape all the women that you want.
you want to exit this world with honor and pleasure, join my army
You are young, do you want to join my army.
So the rumor started to spread around the nation and more were coming to join the army.
So it goes the story, some would say. So goes Carney and his cabinet.
marise jeanie on Mon, 12th May 2025 8:54 pm
typical male sexual fantasy only available in the sexual realm only to certain people. Black leather dominatrix beating up a man and
typical male sexual fantasy only available in the sexual realm only to certain people. Black leather dominatrix beating up a man and sitting on his face is a well known sexual fantasy. Some peg the man with a strap on as a sign of domination over the man.
A female dominatrix pegging a man with a strapon is seen as domination act. Some people will argue that that the dominatrix is is the submissive because she is stimulating man prostate and she is there to give him a orgasm, therefore she is a submissive attending man sexual needs.
the debate is still not resoled in the sexual realm. The tribual of sexuals in the sexual realm will decide on this matter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fw_djc75x4I
matine sperme on Mon, 12th May 2025 9:15 pm
Typical male sexual fantasy. At the end you are granted an ejaculation and orgasm including worshipping of your sperm to boost your testosterones and virility.
Only available in the sexual and procreation realm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUKbX-Rk1bM
alshe cargill on Mon, 12th May 2025 9:50 pm
Sexual realm is where the good sex live. Earth is just a fucking dumb populated with idiots.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_3VA2fQyfA
They have everything in the sexual realm to make even asexual like men me in total erection.
Earth people don’t know what real sex is.
perix natralia on Mon, 12th May 2025 10:32 pm
the fake world is way more fun then the boring real earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u3U2q9rF9tw