It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
erio trelia on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 8:43 pm
there is some true to that about gen X. Very few people are talking about us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGmEmVNFKfw
riding bike on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 8:50 pm
We did ride our bicycle everywhere we go. No helmet. This is kind of good description also. My father did not care what I did and did not ask me what I did during my whole day. I had to be at home at 5:00 PM.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6VirfrtF8k
zero melia on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 9:01 pm
Gen X are the generation that started the sabotage this civilization from the inside. It started with us, this is how much we dont give a shit. We fucked up you civilisation really good without you seeing it.
We just dont care.
zero feria on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 9:20 pm
We wrote the manual how to sabotage a civilisation from th inside. Funny that nobody is talking about that. It is still going as of today.
zero yelia on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 9:23 pm
Walking a whole after noon inside a water treatment plant and doing nothing while hiding from the boss. Telling the boss right to his face, no I wont do that.
zeri helina on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 9:27 pm
I remember this one while I was a student working a water treatment plant. The guy said to me, write in the log what you did this afternoon. The space was blank, the guy look at me, I stand there and said nothing, he just walked away. I did not lose my job, they had nobody else. God I did a lot of internal sabotage.
deria trudia on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 9:29 pm
I piss and shit on your civilisation and crappy flesh body.
alain weri on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 9:43 pm
One hour of training to take over the whole water treatment plant. The guy was going in vacation and they had nobody else. I ended up making a mistake and send black water full of shit directly into the river. All I had, was some kind of hand writing instruction lack any kind of detail. One hour of training in a Friday afternoon, from 3pm to 4pm. Next day I was in charge of the whole treatment plant.
It was a small treatment plant, but still one hour of training. This civilisation has been dying for a long time, you just don’t have the IQ to see it. I piss and shit on your civilisation and crappy flesh body.
zeri gerdine on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 10:00 pm
This is all I have ever seen since I am born, incompetent management everywhere I worked. Eventually you say to yourself, fuck you I will destroy this civilisation from the inside. As I said, this civilisation has been dying for a long time. I am surprised that we are not all dead by now.
alin eride on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 10:45 pm
Show up to water treatment plant for my one hour training. No scientific instruments to measure the efficiency of the treatment process.
The measure that was used was if the water is clear up to 5 feet down it means it is ok.
If my father was freaking out. He was a bit worry about my safety. He said to me, how come there were no older man operating the plant to train me. It was a small company run by a bunch of 30 year old with not enough experience. Nobody to contact in case I run into a big problem.
Why we are still alive is a mystery to me. Treatment plant in the big cities are better run, but in the country side it is nightmare.
qurna trudea on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 10:49 pm
Fucking bunch of amateurs and low IQ losers. These cock suckers always behave as if they are on drug even when they are sober. Always walking fast pretending to work hard when in fact they panicking deep inside and are always in survival mode. Fucking losers.
xeri heri on Wed, 18th Jun 2025 11:15 pm
I bet they are there to collect men sperm. They are using the sperm for artificial insemination. They need better quality sperm to fix their dying specie, is my guess. See at 0:01.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j79USHBKiXw
greha kilro on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 12:21 am
The sperm has to come out, or we will all die. Start at 2:13. Typical female dominatrix scene with her sexual slave.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVaOta75pfk
zeri heler on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 12:24 am
2:55 this is the whole scene.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfOYRRBw2vM
quzi weri on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 12:37 am
0:03 straight out of a BDSM porn clip. Women attached on a chair as a sexual submissive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6biMfEK7HAw
As soon as she is tame, she will be used as a sexual slave.
The sperm has to come out, no matter what.
zero heleri on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 12:54 am
1:35 yoga stance. They must be really desperate for sperm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kK_DVJ_5_VU
It must be a matter of life or death for them.
alain zeria on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 1:36 am
I don’t understand why you are wasting your time with such bullshit. You are all going to be killed, except the chosen ones. Why are you wasting you time with this. You cannot escape your fate that is death.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9ZDhka8o_o
welea zeria on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 1:42 am
Only the chosen ones, all men, will be given a chance to see the failure that is sexual procreation, the failure of conservation of mass, the failure of a matrix of solid, the failure of the flesh body that is a shitty creation.
All the rest will die with earth. Earth reality is based around death and will die.
Why are you wasting your time with this kind of garbage:
US military forces still deploying to the Middle East
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lSHcSszf3Y
Earth might be destroyed by the sun before earth run out of oil.
zero werie on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 1:50 am
No I dont know what is my title and rank outside of earth. I suspect that my rank outside of earth is really high, really close to the top of the power pyramid hierarchy. This is all speculation from me. I have no proof of that.
xero tremelia on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 2:18 am
Yes I will live eternally once I leave earth.
What will be my final vehicle? This is just speculation but some kind of flesh hybrid body that does not need to eat or drink water to stay alive. A hybrid made of flesh and pure energy: light, electrical, magnetic and can live of this pure source of energy.
ulian were on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 2:31 am
I will write it anyway. I might suck up all the energy out of earth reality and integrate this energy into my body killing earth reality by depriving it of energy.
walece123 on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 2:34 am
hrthe
derie gerie on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 3:15 am
37:59 legs wide open like a cheap whore. Must be in a lot of troubles if the sperm does not come out. Are you going to die if we stop procreating. I bet the answer is yes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bau9TBPPOuM
yellen seria on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 3:36 am
What is electricity? It is heat transported inside electrical wires. If you search long enough, you will find the differential equation and why we are using and AC sinusoidal wave.
This is why mechanical power and electrical power have the same unit: Watt. As I said earth is a matrix of solid only modifiable by heat.
Hou la la la.
I cannot hear you in my brain. Where are you honey? Where are you hiding?
zero aloidale on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 3:40 am
When I used to have a car? I would drive to the grocery store and sometime I could feel the heat coming down on me. Heat sweet heat, needed to keep the flesh body alive. Heat to stop the water inside the human body to freeze to death. This heat is entering from the top of your head.
nadine jean on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 3:48 am
It is going to be a tragedy if the planet start cooling down. You will have to provide more heat to the human to keep them alive. Where are you going to find all this energy or heat.
One hour of training before take charge of a small water treatment plant. Your civilization has been dying for a long time. You should find a solution to that before we all die.
How long you will keep this civilisation alive when all you have to keep it alive are heavily mentally retarded people. The sperm must come out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SD8B4eJMCqg
The sperm must come out of we will all, well your specie will die.
mere oloa on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 3:52 am
Another light BDSM sexual scene. Where did you get that. from a porno movie on the internet.
The sperm must come out or your specie will die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dirZP_IfVXg
Your Spciedie on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 4:18 am
Typical male sexual fantasy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUM_JieJmKI
The sperm must come out or your specie will die.
xero laminna on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 4:36 am
Typical female amazone body type. Really fertile female. He is supposed to have an erection right from the start. She is supposed to have a wet vagina. When she wins, at the end, she sit on top of you and ride you until you push your sperm into her.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUM_JieJmKI
alain jean on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 7:42 am
US and Canada are voluntary crashing their economy using hyperinflation. They want to install a King. They are voluntary hyperinflating their economy as a mean to dismantle the federal government and install a King. They are accelerating the bankruptcy of the federal government.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tI78d3OMI3c
berry Greah on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 7:49 am
The cabal controlling the US and Canada want a bloody revenge against their internal enemies. I made comments about who are the internal enemies.
Pourquoi la restauration rapide est incroyablement chère
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BX81rfrFODk
They are voluntary putting their economy on the path of hyperinflation see above.
Fast Food Prices are Out of Control in 2024…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_WqTrr2SqI
The cabal in the US and Canada don’t want democracy as a form of governance anymore.
cere jamal on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 8:02 am
La restauration rapide était autrefois bon marché, mais c’est désormais un luxe
Doublage automatique
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lak0PERN81M
zero helen on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 8:07 am
Les prix de la restauration rapide continuent d’augmenter — et les gens en ont marre
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QI77X5xdvZ0
the cabal does not want to support Israel financially anymore. The cabal wants to move into isolationism. Globalism is out as far as they are concerned. All of this is on the web. it is difficult to find but it is there.
zero helena on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 8:11 am
Who is the cabal. The people behind Biden autopen. This is how i understand it. It is probably not accurate, but this is how I see it.
zero yeria on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 8:42 am
Even the G7 meeting in Canada felt like something that is dying. G7 meeting will stop as soon as a King is selected.
alain marianne on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 8:45 am
La restauration rapide est trop chère maintenant — et les gens en ont marre
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Saa9rvD5TQ
xeri feri on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 9:01 am
Why is it so quiet suddenly?
Bloomberg News YouTube channel is almost dead.
https://www.youtube.com/@markets/videos
CNN youtube channel is almost dead
https://www.youtube.com/@CNN/videos
NBC youtube channel is almost dead
https://www.youtube.com/@NBCNews/videos
CNBC youtube chanel is almost dead
https://www.youtube.com/@CNBCtelevision/video
Is it because of the holiday
fernal olwiskf on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 9:03 am
It is really quiet in my head. you dont want to talk with me. you dont like me
yeler zeria on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 3:21 pm
A reality based on the conservation of mass, sexual reproduction, and build around the concept of death never live long.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TQUDfCm7UA
What you are seeing it is this reality die. Installing a King is not going to solve everything. Sexual reproduction, conservation of mass and the flesh body are the real issues,
zero greia on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 3:27 pm
As I said, the old energy field is being modified and shutdown down A new home will be created but only for the chosen ones.
weye deria on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 3:31 pm
We are moving away from these failed concepts: death, sexual reproduction, the flesh body, entropic degradation, conservation of mass, matrix of solid only modifiable by heat.
We are moving toward eternal life, high IQ people being only, created beings and so on.
berio serena on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 3:33 pm
We are terminating mental retardation as seen below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeHRgh-mUvI
zerio selena on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 3:48 pm
I was expecting cadavers all over the place during the installation of the new energy field. Instead what is happening is that they vaporized energetically and vanish without leaving a trace.
alain grenia on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 3:56 pm
Typical muffler I had on my old car. Steel rust so fast now. Look at how fast the aluminium is rusting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhK7jkQUhBQ
feria beria on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 4:02 pm
Condensation caused by humidity and air temperature changes create liquide water inside the box frame and outside. My exhaust system was also rusting fast at the weld joints. Typical of what to expect in a reality based on death.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhK7jkQUhBQ
verilo quria on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 4:15 pm
At 1:55, the weld has completely rusted away. It is gone. Never build a reality using the concept of death. They never live long.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhK7jkQUhBQ
ceri owelzsky on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 4:18 pm
I bet this is recycled steel with too much impurities in it and high level of copper in it.
were yelen on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 5:17 pm
This is why I decided to take public transportation or walk.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/x-oKPUopAWM
You civilisation died a long time ago as I said above. You just don’t have the IQ needed to see it. One hour of training before taking charge of a whole water treatment. I knew back them is was over for earth.
xeri helena on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 5:48 pm
This is really technical. I bet this video has been done for Ford itself. It is a way to send a message to the EPA: it is not our fault if the staff of the EPA are just lying losers. Ford is not willing to take the blame for the end of this civilisation, EPA should take the blame is Ford position. it is probably not accurate but it is how I see it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLZbGpoEOcg
zero herine on Thu, 19th Jun 2025 6:00 pm
As you can see by the videos links that I am posting here that I have friends among the structure of power of the US and Canada.
I have friends more powerful than any politicians, Judges, governmental employees, media peoples on US and Canadians soil.
La grosse chienne Britannique a Carney va mourir vite en tabernacle.