It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
xero termina on Sat, 21st Jun 2025 12:54 am
Pieces of shit wheel bearing. It it a small cylinder inserted into a bigger cylinder or the wheel hub. The only thing that stopping them to make contact are a thin film of grease. If you over tighten the nut too much the two cylinder will rub one against another dry and damage the wheel hub. When the wheel hub is brown, it means that the bearing has overheated.
Everything is shitty on earth, shitty mechanics, shitty steel, shitty electronics, shitty people, shitty weather, shitty women, shitty plastic. Why we are not dead is still a mystery to me. See at 23:39.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MV9SGYhYPZA
earthy isshitty on Sat, 21st Jun 2025 1:17 am
It is difficult to tell because we don’t have close up picture, but its look like the hub is damaged where the bearing run. See the dark black strip 9:04
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyXMpKqp7l8
Earth is just a pathetic shit hole.
werel yulian on Sat, 21st Jun 2025 1:26 am
Listen to this cock sucker tell us that we should be happy to have the privilege of being slaves for them. Start at 9:27.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXSKeBhvuao
Nobody likes your fucking planet and your shitty flesh body.
aerile trudela on Sat, 21st Jun 2025 1:42 am
I wont comment about this. I am tired. You can make your own judgment. Fucking cock suckers. We are coming for all of you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXro9FaNkIU
xeri zeonia on Sat, 21st Jun 2025 2:51 am
There is no way a pilot can fly these planes in manual mode only. There is too much controls to operate and too many to operations to do in a short period of time. I bet these airplanes are unstable and cannot be flied without computer assistance. We really live inside some kind of simulation.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/r7PkXbuXTL0
darius jean on Sat, 21st Jun 2025 3:06 am
How do they keep a straight line at take off on the asphalt. Is it dona manually? what is the max speed at take off ? Higher the speed at take off more difficult it will be to keep the plane in a straight line at take off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbXLnMYycmY
weliar xeria on Sat, 21st Jun 2025 3:10 am
What kind of wheels alignement procedure are they using to make the plane go in a straight line at take off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbXLnMYycmY
quran liliane on Sat, 21st Jun 2025 3:15 am
You need to have a wheel alignment procedure same as a car. Both tires in the front need to be at the same exact pressure if you want to make sure that the plane will run in a straight line at take off.
Show me your wheels alignment procedure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbXLnMYycmY
quran jamais on Sat, 21st Jun 2025 3:20 am
If the front tire are not a the same pressure, the friction forces are going to be different for each front tire and steer the plane either left or right at take off.
I need to see a wheels alignment procedure of the front wheels with the rear wheels and angles deviation tolerances.
dreirie zera on Mon, 23rd Jun 2025 10:12 am
Going heavy on the sauce. The boot are always black. It is a standard in the sexual realm. Always black.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0sDPYGyDYg
werl yele on Mon, 23rd Jun 2025 10:21 am
Going heavy on the sauce. Not sure why sex matter so much for you. You should work on entropic degradation instead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhaSdpY_2Ws
zero terain on Mon, 23rd Jun 2025 10:31 am
Instead of losing your time making sexual videos, maybe you should work harder at sending me money so I can buy a car. This would be a better use of your time and would give you a much better return on investment compare to sex videos.
denis tremblain on Mon, 23rd Jun 2025 11:54 am
Notice stop doing comments about Carney, Israel, UK, Europe.
Notice that I did not make any comments about Iran-Israel war.
zeri welain on Mon, 23rd Jun 2025 11:56 am
Notice I stopped making comments about Carney, Israel, UK, Europe, Nato, Trump, Québec, Canada, Legault..
Notice that I did not make any comments about Iran-Israel war.
Interpret this the way you want, I just dont give a shit.
zeri avbdul on Mon, 23rd Jun 2025 12:16 pm
Notice that I made only one comment talking about the G7 in Canada Only one.
Interpret this the way you want, I just dont give a shit.
xeri telega on Mon, 23rd Jun 2025 12:29 pm
No matter how this thing unfold I have already won. Either I die and get eternal death, or I leave earth through a dimensional channel.
No matter what are the options, I get what I want.
Can you say the same thing about you.
zeri cerete on Mon, 23rd Jun 2025 2:11 pm
Typical strip tease you see in the sexual and procreation realms. Same thing I saw when I was younger and I was going in strip tease clubs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0sDPYGyDYg
zeria dance on Mon, 23rd Jun 2025 2:31 pm
In real life, they are naked and you can see her asshole and vagina. You can pay for a private dance and she put her ass 10 inch away from your face. If you give good tips she put her ass 5 inches away from you face. I have done these thing. This is nothing new for me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0sDPYGyDYg
quran jamal on Mon, 23rd Jun 2025 4:15 pm
I told you. They know that earth has a problem of IQ. There is not enough high IQ people to keep this civilisation alive. They know the human female is mentally retarded and useless.
The sperm as to come out. This is a softer version of pole dancing above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YqZpSDhu-g
The goal of these movies is to give man an erection and they hope that this would will lead sex with a women and even fall in love. Notice the date 1954. You cannot save women eggs, but you can save man sperm and use for experimentation. This is how artificial insemination works.
xero treble on Mon, 23rd Jun 2025 4:18 pm
You can preserve men sperm but not female eggs. The sperm has to come out or we will all die.
https://www.mensreproductivehealth.com/post/sperm-banking-101-a-step-by-step-guide-to-preserving-fertility
weeind german on Mon, 23rd Jun 2025 4:30 pm
I told you, I dont care what what happen to earth and its population. My destiny is already decided. No matter what happen to me, I will get what I want, eternal death because of peak oil or leaving earth in a upgraded flesh body.
I am the big winner in all of this, earth and its population are the big losers.
itis simple on Mon, 23rd Jun 2025 5:28 pm
This is a softer version of pole dancing above. Same goal try to raise men sexual appetite.
Date between 1930 to 1940. They know since the 1930 that the human female is heavily mentally retarded. They know that earth has a problem of IQ. There is not enough high IQ people to keep this civilisation alive. They know everyone on earth will die and there is nothing they can do to stop that. The chosen ones are going to be extracted and served as some kind of guardians of past of what happened on earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVKkNAf1ruI
zero lreidky on Mon, 23rd Jun 2025 6:32 pm
One women per unit with her new born baby. Start at 0:47.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKKXTYi2nSI
uliane serena on Mon, 23rd Jun 2025 6:55 pm
I just have total hatred toward the Whites race. You will notice that I care more about what is happening in Thailand than, Canada, US, UK, Europe, Québec. For me the Whites race does not deserve to survive. notice that I have never said anything nice about the Jews and Israel.
xeno zeria on Mon, 23rd Jun 2025 8:18 pm
I am going to give it to you really hard. your BS theater that is incapable of giving us good results and the fucking datas we are losing because I don’t have a car. We are going to fuck you over real good.
Stupid pieces of shit.
zero yelean on Mon, 23rd Jun 2025 9:27 pm
Principle of conservation of mass right there at 5:36. A reality based on the conservation of mass and a matrix of solid create a lot of trashes, dust and pollution.
These kind of realities all die. This is what we are seing. Everyone will die eventually. They know it and I know it too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-iNLkbmvTk
I talked about this is my previous comments. I am repeating myself too much.
alin jamal on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 2:39 am
The world of illusion and fake images. This is what this video illustrating.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yColUKYtwDU
Even if it is only illusions. there has to be some kind of cohesion or causality so people believe it is real. Causality what are these: gravity, matrix of solid, conservation of mass, entropic degradation.
Even if it is only illusions, this reality will die because of cohesion or causality.
zero grahma on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 2:42 am
In the matrix they called causality, I call it cohesion. It is the same thing.
https://www.larousse.fr/dictionnaires/francais/causalit%C3%A9/13856
Principe de causalité, principe selon lequel tout fait a une cause, les mêmes causes dans les mêmes conditions produisant les mêmes effets. Gravity is a causality principle.
xeri nemeria on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 2:49 am
They call it causality, I call them calculators of cohesions, it is the same thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHW0FgiB7TI
vero cloutier on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 2:57 am
At 5:51. We are all victims of causality. I drink too much wine, I must taka a piss.
What causality is he talking about, conservation of mass.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHW0FgiB7TI
I will kill everyone on earth because of Canada guns laws. Causality my dear.
xeri fermia on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 3:14 am
I told you to not fuck with me and insult me. I fucking told you that I am coming from the highest spheres of creation. I told you that I will kill everyone on earth for insulting me. I never told you how I will do it.
zero umanche on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 3:27 am
I am going to fuck over all of the earth for insulting me. I am going to give it to all of you real good.
zero freeze on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 11:18 am
I am going to kill all the population of earth for insulting me, I will kill you all, I am the voodoo child, I am going to enjoy killing you all.
Historic Snow In Buenos Aires; Rare Frosts For Uruguay; Western U.S. Slammed by Rare June Freeze; + WMO’s Laughable Asia 2024 Report
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVFD51PitNU
quran derial on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 11:26 am
After all, if I am the creator of earth, I own earth, meaning I can kill all the population of earth starting with the Whites race and restart something else new. I told you to not fuck with me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVFD51PitNU
were init on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 11:33 am
There will be another world. Except it will be empty with just the chosen ones. I will kill everyone living on earth, and rebuild something that fit my personality.
If I don’t meet you no more in this world then uh
I’ll meet ya on the next one
And don’t be late
Don’t be late
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVFD51PitNU
zeroi mirame on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 11:44 am
You have no idea how much we hate all of you. You have no idea what we are about to do to earth and its population. Stupid worthless pieces of shits. Like I would share the earth energy field when I can keep all for myself.
As if I was that generous that I would keep people that I hate alive just out of the goodness of my heart.
zero helier on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 11:46 am
La race blanche va mourir en premier pis elle va souffrir le plus pendant qu’elle meurt. Crisse de race blanche sale de câlisse.
zero farie on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 11:54 am
The negro race will die last and suffer the least while dying. But the negro race will also die.
relia germain on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 12:16 pm
Just to told you how much Canada is a loser nation, it names its navy ships using the UK royal monarchy words, and then they wonder why I want to destroy Canada.
His Majesty’s Canadian Ship
HMCS stands for “His Majesty’s Canadian Ship” or “Her Majesty’s Canadian Ship.” It is a prefix used for surface ships in the Royal Canadian Navy and Canadian Joint Operations Command, distinguishing them from British warships. The designation is derived from the title “HMS” used in the United Kingdom, as the monarch of Canada is also the monarch of the UK
Canada such a loser nation that is unable to renew itself. Same as the whole whites race.
HMCS Sackville: Hop aboard the world’s last-surviving Corvette
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Kuplw1-U1M
Then they bring the fucking British whore of Carney on Canadians soil.
erin brosky on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 12:20 pm
I want the earth energy for myself alone, and I will kill everyone on earth to achieve to total ownership of earth energy field for my self alone. the White race die first, the negro race the last.
zeri derial on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 12:26 pm
I want the whole earth energy field back under my authority and control. I will kill everyone living on earth just to achieve that. I will kill everything just to achieve this goal. Watch me going.
wrlien zwlsike on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 12:36 pm
I want earth energy field back under my authority and control. I want the earth energy field neutralized and without any mathematical template in it, why, I want everything inside of it dead.
If you think you will push a European British whore into my face without me saying anything, you are wrong.
were heline on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 12:40 pm
You can delete my comments as much as you want, you can not stop the unavoidable, everything will go back as it was before the creation of earth.
Jamal Jewskylow on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 1:19 pm
If you were powerful beings, you would not need to play theater like that. The fact is that you are inferior beings at the bottom of the pyramids power. Outside of earth I am most likely more powerful that all of you. You are nothing, you are just losers with your theater.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 1:22 pm
The fact that you have played theater like that, is a proof that you are all inferior beings without any real power. If I can see it, everyone else can see it too. As I said you are just losers with no real power.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoTOmjIFuRw
I could go on and on about how you are just inferiors beings with no real worth.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 1:26 pm
You think they don’t see it that you have no real powers. You think they don’t see it that is all fake theater. They know you are just losers incapable of acceding earth calculators. You are even not capable of sending me money, this is how weak you are. They know it and I know you are all just losers.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 1:31 pm
You are even not powerful enough to change the gravity constant from 9.8 m2/s to 4.5 m2/sec and update all the reality so it stay mechanically coherent. They know you are just losers, same as I know you are just losers.
Yelen Corina on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 2:18 pm
This site is slow probably dying like everything else since earth is build around the concept of death.
You are not powerful. You are just a losers with your strategy of faces moved forward. This is how powerful you pretend do be: Carney and Nato photo. You are not powerful enough to deal with them. You are all losers with no real power.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpyVWunCXPo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8gWyt4wZjc
if this is the best you can do above, you are not powerful enough to win against them. I always said you were just losers. Fucking UK and Eurotrash, should have been killed and exterminated a long time ago. A real powerful being would have supported me financially and help me collect datas to better understand how earth is designed. You are just a fucking loser.
Xera Trudel on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 2:37 pm
This is the extend of your power. Software that can change Carney smiles. This is how powerful you are. You are simply not powerful enough.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8gWyt4wZjc
Frist 3 sec of video.
Persian Jamhaim on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 2:45 pm
Quand je pense que vous m’avez ramenez la salope Britannique sale a Carney au Canada. I have worked so hard at trying to exterminate the White race by pushing them back in the North, you dare to do that to me.
La race Blanche va mourir en premier dans des douleurs extremes.